Eric and Eliot welcome Australian MG (ret.) Mick Ryan to the show to discuss his new book, The War For Ukraine: Strategy and Adaptation under Fire (Naval Institute Press, 2024). They examine the initial strategies pursued by Russia and Ukraine as well as the assumptions that underpinned those strategies as well as considering how the two sides have adapted to changing conditions on the battlefield. They discuss the role of leadership and Ukraine's demonstration of greater ability to implement innovation in tactics on the battlefield from the ground up. Eliot and Mick discuss the difference between the relatively unchanging nature of war as opposed to the evolving character of war and how new technology and doctrine can make a difference in comparative advantage between adversaries. They discuss civil-military strains in both Ukraine and Russia, Russian challenges with mobilization of manpower as well as Ukraine's difficulties with both manpower and training as well as absorbing some of the high end equipment they have received from NATO allies and other partners. They consider the current state of the battlefield, the Kursk offensive by Ukrainian forces and some of the flaws in US and NATO military advice and decision-making during the course of the war.
https://www.thebulwark.com/p/liz-cheney-on-american-authoritarianism-d00
War Transformed: The Future of Twenty-First-Century Great Power Competition and Conflict:
The War for Ukraine: Strategy and Adaptation Under Fire
Mick's Substack:
Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.
Near the end, Gen. Ryan says, "Now, they've totally abrogated their responsibilities in . . . saying we want Ukraine to win. I still haven't heard any politician to say that. . . . I think the problem Ukraine really has at the moment is, too many leaders are more afraid of Russia losing than Ukraine losing. And that is both a strategic and a moral problem in Western leadership at the moment is: one, we don't know how to win; and secondly, we haven't decided we want to win. And until we do that, I think Ukraine is going to continue to have problems."
I think that sums up why Ukraine has not yet won this war: Western leaders, particularly the Biden administration, do not really want Ukraine to win. They have an inordinate fear of what might happen if Russia were to lose, and therefore they have kept a leash on Ukraine to prevent that outcome.