Well, that was all pretty dumb, wasn’t it? Happy Wednesday.
Trump Surrenders
by William Kristol
I’m old enough to remember when President Trump assured us, “There will be no deal with Iran except UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER!”
That was a month ago.
Since then, Trump has bombed and blustered and caused all manner of damage to Iran, to its neighbors, to the United States, and to the world. But Iran hasn’t unconditionally surrendered. It hasn’t even conditionally surrendered. It’s agreed to a ceasefire followed by negotiations. These negotiations will be based not on Iranian surrender but, as Trump said last night, on a ten-point proposal from Iran that Trump believes “is a workable basis on which to negotiate.”
So we’re off to negotiations. Trump and the Iranian regime are making wildly contrasting claims and promises about what has been or will be agreed to. For now, as Gregg Carlstrom, Middle East correspondent of the Economist, put it:
So if you’re keeping score at home, the ceasefire includes Lebanon but also doesn’t include Lebanon, America has agreed to all of Iran’s demands and Iran has agreed to all of America’s demands, America will recognize Iran’s right to enrichment and also insist on zero enrichment, Hormuz is completely open but also Hormuz is subject to unclear limitations.
Oil market researcher Rory Johnston wittily called this “Schrödinger’s ceasefire.”
But the fog of ceasefire doesn’t mean that we don’t know anything. In fact, we know quite a lot already.
We know that the Iranian regime remains in place. The mullahs and the IRGC remain in control of Iran.
We know that the Iranian regime still has its enriched uranium (even if they can’t get to a lot of it right now). And we know that while its military capabilities have been much degraded, it still has functional missile and drone capabilities. We know there’s no reason not to expect Russia and China to be willing to rearm Iran.
We know that primary and secondary sanctions on Iran seem likely to be relaxed or even lifted.
We know that at least for now the Strait of Hormuz will be reopened. But it’s unclear whether it will remain an international waterway, as it was before, or whether Iran will be able to charge fees or tolls for passage. And we know that the fact that the Iranian regime was able to close the waterway, cause significant damage to the global economy, and live to boast about it, can’t be unseen. Whatever promises are now made, Iran will retain leverage with respect to the strait.
We know more generally that Trump’s war has further shaken any confidence our allies might still have in us. It will be seen as confirmation that Trump’s United States of America has become just another rogue nation in the international arena, if a less disciplined and cunning one than Putin’s Russia or Xi’s China. We know that the old international order with the United States as its anchor is gone.
What we know mocks Trump’s claim in an interview with AFP last night that the United States “won a total and complete victory. One hundred percent. No question about it.”
What we know tends to support the judgment by the distinguished military analyst, Phillips O’Brien, that “It’s a total fold by Trump. . . . What a waste all this was.”
And we know, as Jonathan V. Last put it on last night’s Bulwark livestream, that “This entire thing was avoidable and predictable. Donald Trump made America walk into the diner to eat the shit sandwich.”
The fact that this a shit sandwich doesn’t mean that one shouldn’t welcome this ceasefire. A ceasefire is better than war crimes. A deal to stop the fighting will be better than more death and destruction and economic damage. But the whole episode is a defeat for the United States, and for Donald Trump.
At 12:01 this morning, Trump tried to make the best of it all with a seven-exclamation-point post:
A big day for World Peace! Iran wants it to happen, they’ve had enough! Likewise, so has everyone else! The United States of America will be helping with the traffic buildup in the Strait of Hormuz. There will be lots of positive action! Big money will be made. Iran can start the reconstruction process. We’ll be loading up with supplies of all kinds, and just ‘hangin’ around’ in order to make sure that everything goes well. I feel confident that it will. Just like we are experiencing in the U.S., this could be the Golden Age of the Middle East!!! President DONALD J. TRUMP
I suppose “big money” may be made from this war and its aftermath by the Trump family. But for the United States of America, Trump’s war has been a defeat and a warning.
Recovering from this defeat will be a long-term challenge. All we can do in the short term is prevent further acts of gratuitous damage to our country and the world. The public can punish Trump’s Republican party this fall. Democrats can try to check Trump through the legislative and appropriations processes.
But the warning is this: thirty-three more months of an increasingly reckless and unhinged Trump in control of the executive branch of the United States poses too great a risk. The Founders set up a mechanism to deal with such an unfortunate eventuality in the presidency: impeachment, conviction, and removal from office. So Congress should heed the words of the young prince Guiderius in Shakespeare’s Cymbeline: “Come on then, and remove him.”
A Tale Told by an Idiot
by Andrew Egger
God knows there’s plenty of competition. But for my money, the last twenty-four hours of Donald Trump’s utterances may take the prize as his most insane single-day run yet.
Yesterday morning, Trump was threatening genocide against Iran. This threat, we now know, was a bluff: He called it off despite Iran declining to give him the “COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE, and SAFE OPENING” of the Strait of Hormuz he was demanding. His threat, made in full view of the world, stands as a lasting stain on America, and it didn’t even get him a ceasefire on his own terms.
While Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Araghchi kept a poker face in his English-language statement about the deal—which Trump posted to Truth Social—the country’s National Security Council was more carefree in its statements to Iranian state media: “The enemy, in its unfair, unlawful, and criminal war against the Iranian nation,” the body exulted, “has suffered an undeniable, historic, and crushing defeat.”
This probably overstates the case; in any event, Iran was always going to describe any ceasefire to its own people in these sorts of overwrought terms. But when CNN reported that this statement was going out on Iranian media, Trump lost his mind. “The alleged Statement put out by CNN World News is a FRAUD, as CNN well knows,” he seethed. “The Official Statement by Iran was just released, and posted on TRUTH, below. Authorities are looking to determine whether or not a crime was committed on the issuance of the Fake CNN World Statement, or was it a sick rogue player? CNN is being ordered to immediately withdraw this Statement with full apologies for their, as usual, terrible ‘reporting.’”
A few hours later, he posted again: “No one can believe that Fake News CNN put out a knowingly false and dangerous statement pretending it came from the upper levels of the Iranian Government. It didn’t! It was totally made up and posted, as a headline, for purpose of, perhaps, inflaming a very delicate situation.”
CNN, of course, denied all this: “The statement in question was obtained by CNN from Iranian officials and reported on multiple Iranian state media outlets. We received the statement from specific Iranian spokespeople who are known to us.” Iranian state media accounts had posted the statement themselves. But it didn’t matter. In the hours after his ultimatum had been exposed as a bluff, it was obvious where Trump’s head was: more focused on CNN daring to notice that not everyone thought he was the world’s best boy who had done the world’s best job than on the actual negotiations that were supposedly beginning.
Even then, Trump wasn’t done. This morning, on the phone with ABC News’s Jonathan Karl, he uncorked one more lunatic banger: Maybe he wouldn’t insist that Iran stop tolling the Strait of Hormuz, as they’d begun to do since the war began. Maybe, instead, the United States would just get in on the action too.
“We’re thinking of doing it as a joint venture,” Trump told Karl. “It’s a way of securing it—also securing it from lots of other people.” It would be, Trump added, a “beautiful thing.”
Why should companies halfway around the world have to pay the United States for the privilege of entering or leaving the Persian Gulf? In what universe would America benefit from locking arms with the terror regime in Tehran to extract these bribes from everybody else? Such questions appear not to occur to Trump, who is simply excited to have stumbled upon another possible place to wet his beak.
All in all, these statements present a remarkable survey of the various zones of necrotic flesh that appear to be consuming the president’s brain. There’s his ridiculous “negotiating” techniques: Threatening the biggest piece of pain he can imagine, then backing off and declaring victory despite none having materialized. There’s his ludicrous, myopic posture on the media, declaring war on CNN for passing along official statements from the government of Iran that Trump would rather not hear. And there’s his utterly senseless economic policy, which totally disdains the benefits of orderly and uninterrupted global trade in favor of a world order where everybody has to pay him a nickel on every transaction everywhere for no discernible reason.
The worst of the Iran conflict may be over. Unfortunately, we’re still stuck with the guy who kicked it off.
AROUND THE BULWARK
Sorry, The 25th Amendment Can’t Save Us From Trump… On The Illegal News, ANDREW WEISSMANN joins SARAH LONGWELL to explain the legality of Trump’s unhinged Iran threats, the legal reality behind “war crimes” warnings, and the global fallout of a strategy with no clear objective.
The Pentagon Purge and the Moral High Ground… Chief of Army Chaplains Maj. Gen. William Green is a good man, a good officer, and a good chaplain, writes MARK HERTLING.
Right-Wing Figures Revolt Over Trump’s Genocide Threat… On Bulwark+ Takes, WILL SOMMER joins SAM STEIN to react to Donald Trump’s shocking post suggesting that an entire Iranian civilization could be wiped out and the rare backlash now emerging from inside MAGA.
Quick Hits
GIVING ORBÁN A HAND: JD Vance has been having a rough go of it lately, his supposed anti-war bona fides going up in so much smoke as the administration continues to pummel Iran in a war of its own choosing. So perhaps it made sense that Vance spent yesterday halfway around the world, indulging in his favorite security-blanket activity: boosting Europe’s reactionary right-wing political parties. There he was on stage in Budapest yesterday, offering a rousing speech that amounted to a re-election message for Hungarian autocrat Viktor Orbán ahead of his parliamentary elections Saturday: “The bureaucrats in Brussels, those people should not be listened to,” Vance said. “Listen to your hearts, listen to your souls, and listen to the sovereignty of the Hungarian people.”
Vance also took a moment to call up Trump himself. “I am a big fan of Viktor,” the president said via speakerphone, as Vance held his phone to the podium mics. Orbán, he said, “did not allow people to storm your country and invade your country like the people have and ruined other countries.”
Hungary has extremely low levels of immigration, and its population has been shrinking steadily since 1980.
NICE PLANE YOU’VE GOT THERE: Kristi Noem may be gone, but her much-maligned luxury jet remains. The Wall Street Journal reports that the White House intends to hang on to the $70 million plane, which the former Homeland Security secretary leased for high-style personal travel with top aide Corey Lewandowski:
The administration plans to use the plane, which is nicer than most other government jets, for travel by select cabinet secretaries, some of the officials said. First lady Melania Trump’s office would also have access to the jet, the officials said. . . .
Trump fired Noem last month, telling advisers that he was tired of the infighting and drama at her department and upset over her congressional testimony, in which she said Trump had signed off on other controversial spending at the department. Former Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R., Okla.) was confirmed last month as her replacement.
Officials with U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, which was handling the jet’s purchase, thought plans to buy it would then be shelved, agency officials said.
But following Noem’s ouster, the White House wanted to move ahead, and has taken it away from DHS’s control, the officials said. The plane’s use is now approved by top White House officials instead of officials at DHS.
Noem should have known: There’s only one guy around here who gets to skim off the top with impunity, and it’s not the homeland security secretary.
Cheap Shots
Actually, there may be one thing dumber than Trump declaring war on CNN over reporting on Iran’s official statements—Trump’s toady FCC chair doing the same thing:
"Donald Trump made America walk into the diner to eat the shit sandwich."
No. America walked into the voting booth and ordered up a shit sandwich. Donald delivered.
Changing the subject somewhat, but happily so, it was a good night for Democrats in Wisconsin. We held another election for the state Supreme Court, and for the third time in three years a Democrat-leaning candidate won – and it wasn’t even close, about a 20-point gap. (Watching Scott Walker and his divide-and-conquer crowd get humiliated, again, never gets old.) What earlier was a Republican-oriented court now has a 5-2 liberal stance. Even in Waukesha, west of Milwaukee and a longtime conservative city and region, a Democrat won the race for mayor. (Actually, she is a former student of mine, not that I can claim credit for the outcome.) And among our local races downstate pretty much all the liberal candidates did well and either held their seats or picked some up. All in all, about as good of a result as could be had.
Overall voter turnout was somewhat low compared to last year, but especially in conservative areas of the state. It seems they had considerably less appetite for engagement and less enthusiasm to make their voices heard. Many stayed home. Takeaway: perhaps somewhat wishful thinking, but it appears that Trump- and MAGA fatigue is real – every time that man opens his mouth again, it seems another dozen people either are motivated to vote against him or opt to put distance between themselves and his craziness.
Hope for the future, as spring begins to emerge. I like that combination just fine.