Jonathan Martin: The Antibodies Resisting the Virus

I’m Charlie Sykes. Welcome to the Bulwark podcast. It’s October twenty fourth two thousand twenty three. We are on day twenty one. Of the House of Representatives being without a speaker, even as we speak here, Republicans are trying again to pick a speaker that they are down to plan d.

Also, Donald Trump has made an amazing discovery, which we’re gonna get to in a moment. We are joined by Jonathan Last, who is a senior political columnist of Politico. He’s also its politics Bureau chief and the author of the best selling book. This will not pass Trump Biden and the battle for America’s future. And he joins us from Oxford England.

So Top of the morning to you, Jonathan.

Hey, Charlie Sykes for having me on. I’m, feeling very posh here in Oxford. I just stepped into a, an ancient pub and, I saw on the wall drawing a pint of beer. None other then that that great American John f Carrie. Oh, my.

And it occurred to me that John and John Carey came to the pub and he was reporting for duty. That’s the problem. Yeah.

I don’t think that John Carey spends much time in pubs though. That just doesn’t sound on brand.

That’s a shout out to those who have memories of the two thousand four convention.

I’m trying to forget those. So, hey, talk about deep dives here. I’m probably gonna date myself with this, but we have a lot to talk about including the ongoing cluster fuck of of the house GOP, which by the time we’re done talking, we may have some results on, you know, on on, you know, the having gone from Kevin McCarthy to Steve Golis to Jim Jordan to Tom Emer, whatever. But we have to start with this. Can we start with the breaking story, the latest flipper.

Flash my gear. You won’t do anything. Come on.

Thank you.

You know this leper?

No one you see is smarter than me. Jenna Ellis.

Pleading guilty, apparently weeping in court this morning. Of course, this is what Donald Trump says about people who take the please right there. Flippers. They’re rats. But Jenna Ellis.

Well, you didn’t see this coming. Did you Jonathan? I didn’t see it coming.

It’s always the ones you most expect. As the saying goes. Well, first of all, I I gotta say, this is a podcast I know, but but props for that great sound. I mean, that that’s like really quality talk radio material there, Charlie. So respect for the old school, the old school cue there on the flipper flipper soundtrack.

Like, it was such a band of we’re in England. So, like, Charles, this is more your generation, but, like, What was the, like, the b last Beatles band called? Like the answer or or something like that? What was the Whoa.

No. See, I thought you were going for band of brothers.

No. No. No. Who was like some like would be Beatles like imitation called like the ants. I don’t know.

But it was this like group of grifters and b list lawyers looking for for a sort of boom and of notoriety. And like, of course, they have no deep loyalty to like Donald Trump or his movements. When their asses on the line, I’m not at all surprised they’re flipping in the case of Jenna Ellis who I think supports the scientists now. I’m can’t say I’m terribly terribly surprised.

Yeah. She’s going through some things. You know, Trump wasn’t paying her legal bills. Right. You could tell that she was a little bit disaffected.

It’s not exactly Jim Baker versus Warren Christopher in the Florida recount in two thousand.

I think that’s something of an understatement. Okay. So just just to bring people up to, to speed here, Jenna Ellis, former lawyer for Donald Trump’s twenty twenty campaign, pled guilty Tuesday to illegally conspiring to overturn Trump’s twenty twenty election loss in Georgia. So in other words, Once again, we have one of the Trump inner circle, his legal brain trust saying this was a crime. See, I I guess I try to put this in perspective that if you and I had been told a year ago, that Sydney Powell would plead guilty, Jenna Ellis would plead guilty, Kenneth Chezboro would plead guilty.

There’s there’s another there’s another guy that nobody knows about. We go, okay. Wow. There’s some traction here. Yes.

So she is the second co defendant with known direct links. A one time Fox News regular. Ellis was part of the post twenty twenty election legal team appearing alongside Rudy Giuliani Trump attorney Sydney Powell, you know this. We’ve already had the guilty pleas from the Atlanta bail bondsman, a guy named Scott Hall, And of course, the Powell and Chesborough. So moving ahead.

I mean, Charlie Sykes you know the law. Like, the prosecutors aren’t looking to get the goods on Jenna Alice and Kenneth Cheese. We’re like, they’re hoping to leverage them to get a bigger fish here to stay with our a aquatic theme for the show. And, that’s obviously what they’re up to here. And don’t drop who never sort of exudes loyalty to others.

I think is now an installation where he’s he’s not feeling it reciprocated. And, as he put it earlier, I’m sure he’s not very happy about that because they’re not they’re not hanging tough, like, Paul Manafort and Roger Stone. They’re they’re getting the best possible deal for themselves.

Right. So, and and, you know, you and I are lawyers here, but I I do think that as as laypeople, it certainly does look like Fony Willis’s strategy of indicting eighteen co conspirators on racketeering charge is actually paying dividends because, I mean, the whole point of using that racketeering statute down in Georgia Yeah. Is to put pressure on people. And and there is that that that amazing phenomenon of showing up at the courthouse and facing actual jail time

Right.

That leads to these kinds of guilty pleas. So in each one of these pleas, they may not get a lot of jail time, but the deal is they have to testify truthfully Otherwise, the deal goes away. Okay. So I wanna spend more time on what’s going on in Washington, DC, where they’re voting this morning. But before we do this, This is a little bit of a palate cleanser.

I know the world is burning. I know there are more important things going on in the world, but I but I just wanted to share this moment of stable genius with you Jonathan Last a longtime student of Donald Trump, the mind of Donald Trump, the incredible brilliance of Donald Trump. He apparently discovered something that no one had ever thought of before. Let me play you this sound button in case you missed it. This was Donald Trump speaking up, I believe in Gary, New Hampshire.

Come for us. You know how you spell us. Right? You spell us US. True.

I just picked that up. Has anyone ever thought of that being I just picked that up.

No one’s ever fun.

The days I’m reading and it said us.

And I said, you know, if

you think about it, us equals US is isn’t it? Now if we say something genius, they’ll never said.

Okay. Jonathan, nobody ever thought of that before. He thought of that. It must be amazing waking up as Donald Trump looking around the world and thinking some obvious thing going, hey. Us US.

Same thing. I’ll bet you nobody in the in history has ever thought of that before. What is stable genius I am?

I’m just thrilled that the fryer’s club has opened an expansion. Office in in Derry, New Hampshire. And, because look, that that shit really kills. It’s up there with, you take my life. Please.

Oh, god. Okay. So you’ve heard of the the Dunning Krueger effect. Here’s the definition from psychology today because I do my research on the internets. The Dunning Kruger effect is a cognitive bias in which people wrongly overestimate their knowledge or ability in a specific area.

This tends to occur because a lack of self awareness prevents them from accurately assessing their own skills in other words. They’re too stupid to know how stupid they are, Jonathan. I just present this for people’s contemplation before we Just

put that out there, Charlie. You just put that out.

Of course, I’m gonna get the reaction saying, you know, there are so many more serious things. Why are you talking about this? Why are you laughing about this? Be better? You know what?

This is the only way we stay sane, Jonathan. Okay. So Yes. Let’s talk about what’s going on, the house GOP beyond any sort of parody has now gone twenty one days without a speaker, absolutely paralyzed. Everybody is acknowledging that it’s a fiasco, that it’s and embarrassment.

So you had a really interesting piece last week where you talk about why the Republicans just cannot get their act together that there is, in fact, no sort of cohesion at all in the party. So Right. What’s going on right now? What’s gonna happen?

The piece that I wrote, you’re nice to mention. I had a column in politico last week about it’s not one party There’s a reason why they can’t come to an agreement on a speaker. You’ve got what’s a fracture Republican party today? I mean, listeners to this show will know this well. I mean, you’ve got the remnants of the pre truck party as they exist still hanging on.

And there’s more of them in the senate and the ranks of governors of court, but there’s some in the house still. And then you have the post trump party and part of this is generational, but it’s also sort of psychological too. And they’re just operating in different wavelengths. So it shouldn’t be a surprise that not only Charlotte, do you have this messy speaker’s race, but then you have this remarkable primary, in which you have sort of almost a parallel race, happening on top of the main race, which we are very familiar with, which just came. Let’s go to Iowa, New Hampshire, they do candidate forums, they do debates They raise money and they, you know, try to make an impression with activists and house parties and take questions And then you’ve got like this other primary going on which Donald Trump is like the clear and away favorite doesn’t do any of that stuff and doesn’t really seem to hurt him.

And so I see sort of similarities and the parallel primaries taking place in the in the presidential field and what’s happening in the house, Charlie Sykes just got these sort of two different parties in one. And I think about what the house GOB is trying to do you know, it’s less a faction driven American political party at this point. And it’s more like a sort of European style parliament try to put together a coalition government with different parties. I that to me is more than what’s going on. You got real mistrust.

Real differences and just inability to, put them aside or go to the institution. So

As you point out, I mean, there’s Trump GOP, a post Trump GOP living together uneasily, they may be roommates, but they’re not married. Yeah. But they’re screwing each other. I mean, it’s just it is nasty. I mean, they’re they’re throwing the plates, they’re throwing the dishes.

So let’s talk about Jim Jordan going down, the significance of that. He is Donald Trump’s candidate. They pulled out all of the big guns, all of the media guns. You you gotta go with with Jim Jordan. Otherwise, you are a Rhino.

And to the surprise of a lot of people, you had more than twenty Republicans who stood up and said, I’m sorry, too crazy, too crazy even for the modern Republican party.

Yeah. Because there is still the DNA, the strands of the DNA lingering amongst some members of the house GOP. Especially among members who have been there for a while, people who are more institutionalistic, which they just can’t stomach the idea of you know, what, a bomb thrower type being the speaker of the house and second in line with the presidency.

Yeah.

That’s just not what role he is to play. And so I think it was a bridge too far. I think that surprised a lot of people who thought that the traditionalist would cave But they often have when it comes to trump or trump adjacent issues, and they held strong. But it does speak to the the paralysis that is is now, right, gripping the institution three weeks after Bay threw out McCarthy. Look, it may be so much that that the fatigue alone will prompt them to pick a new speaker this week.

But Charlie Sykes how much is that speaker gonna be a short term play? How much of this, you know, will be relitigated?

Well, exactly.

After the election. My big picture view is that so much of this hangs on Trump and trump’s fate because he he really is the biggest actor I mean, American politics broadly, but certainly in the Republican party. And until they figure that out, and until his fate is determined, I think that it’s just gonna be difficult to figure out what their identity is. In the house or anywhere else. Yep.

So let’s say that it’s somebody like Tom Emma. And we were we’re moving the standards from being acceptable to not as awful as it could have been. But whoever it is has the same dynamic, right, is that you’re trying to square the circle. Trying to keep the government open. Oh, you know, are you gonna allow a vote on Ukraine?

Kevin McCarthy, you know, tried to appease, tried to make the deals, tried to finesse it for months and months and months. He couldn’t do it. I’m not sure why anybody thinks that somebody else can do it. Now you, as you were putting this together, you were talking to Paul Ryan.

Right.

Who you said was perhaps the purest archetype of the pre g o p.

Pre trump g o p. Right. Exactly. The Crown Friends of the pre trial party. Right?

Well, you and I are old enough to remember when he was the future of the party eleven years ago.

He used to be the future of the GOP. Exactly. Yeah.

Okay. So what’s Paul Ryan really thinking right now? He’s watching this shit show?

Well, I think He was pretty candid with Matt that his view was. It’s a populist, very political, GOP Conference in the House right now, and that reflects a populous party. It’s not a sort of ideas oriented party. It’s mostly oriented through our populace. And if we’re being honest, orient through our personality, the personality of Donald Trump.

And as long as that’s the case, I think everything’s just on hold. And can they muddle through with Tom Emer or somebody else’s speaker for the next fourteen months? Well, sure they can. But I all of this has gotta be reconciled in twenty twenty five. And, Charlie, you’re all about to have lived through Democrats losing three consecutive presidential races in the nineteen eighties.

And by considerable margin, by the way.

Eighty eighty four eighty eight. Right.

Exactly. It took them three straightly on slide losses to have a real reformation movement. And so let’s see what happens if Trump does lose if he has sentenced the prison. I mean, will that prompt some kind of a reformation in their public and party? Or will they just try to kinda muddle on through?

In this hybrid manner. They neither fish nor foul, but it’s pretty damn messy right now.

Okay. So let’s go back to Paul Ryan, because I would love, to be a fly on the wall listening to the conversation that must have taken place between Paul Ryan and John Bainer. Yes. Okay. So both of these guys pushed out as Republican speakers.

In fact, going back to two thousand I mean, when’s the last time there was a successful Republican speaker? It is the shittiest job in Washington. Right. And they had bigger majorities. But they must be looking at this and going because they live through this.

Right? John Bainer had had it with the the Taliban cock with the the political terrorists, you know, to use his phrase. Paul Ryan saw the writing on the wall. He got out of the way. He tried to appease the Maga folks and Donald Trump.

But, you know, Kevin McCarthy, he’s a I mean, it’s basically an unworkable job. There’s no way of doing it. I mean, you think about one speaker after another. Each one of them thought, okay, it’ll be different with me. It wasn’t.

And they all ended up being thrown out the window. Right?

Because you’ve got member who don’t wanna govern and that’s not why they’re in Washington. They’re in Washington to make a a point not a difference to paraphrase a comments that Mitch McConnell often makes or as one former member told me they come to Washington to be something, not do something. And I that makes it pretty damn unworkable to to use your word Charlie because they don’t wanna be in the majority because the burden of being in the majority is you have to govern. You gotta compromise, and we go to Democratic senate, Democratic White House, that’s not fun. My friend, Paul Kane, the the great Congressionalritional correspondent, Washington Post, have Tom over the weekend in which he noted that, like, a hundred and twenty ish Members of the House GOP have been elected since twenty eighteen.

I mean, that tells you everything you need to know about the turnover and about the culture of the place, they don’t know life in the majority. Let alone understand how to govern. Right?

And yet, what you wrote was that apparently there were still enough antibodies resisting the virus in the house to stopped Jordan. So let’s talk about that. There are still the antibodies. There are still the normies. And as you point out in the senate, the Republicans still more or less reflect that pre trump party.

So what are those antibodies? What’s going on in the senate?

The antibodies is the sort of traditional muscles, you know, the pre trump part of it is, he he’s just not gonna elevate Jim Jordan the speaker. That’s not gonna throw out Mitch McConnell. For being leader. But those antibodies grow weaker and weaker every two years, Tarla, because the generational turnover that’s coming in a lot faster in the house, but you certainly see it in the senate too.

Yeah.

Reflects a trumpier party. Look at the issue of Ukraine, which I think is really one of the best tells where you can sort of see the difference between pre and post trump in the party. Yeah. I wrote a big piece over the summer about Mitch McConnell and him trying to really keep the party on kind of the Reaganite path of national security and on Ukraine specific. And I looked this up and you would not be surprised at all.

But overwhelmingly, the house GOP members who voted to strip Ukraine of aid came in after troubles like a president. And it’s a lot smaller number in the senate, but similarly, it’s an overwhelmingly post twenty eighteen group in the senate. This forest trip in Ukraine. I mean, look at Ohio. You know, Rob Portman classic Busy Republican literally worked in bush forty one and bush forty three White House.

It was a dark. Yeah. It’s very much the sort of Cincinnati. Republican. The task family would recognize that archetype.

You know, replaced by Janey Vans. Somebody who not only is an outspoken critic of of a Ukraine aid, but kind of leading the charge in the Senate. I’m stripping Ukraine of aid. Never mind that his state has enormous Ukrainian and, you know, eastern European population that feels very be about the issue, but that’s just where he is politically. And, tells you everything you need to know about where the party is today and really where it’s going.

What would happen if Mitch McConnell was no longer able to serve as leader. People who are listening to this have very mixed feelings about Mitch McConnell, but Mitch McConnell right now, is kind of by default, the leader of this pre trump GOP, isn’t he? He’s like the chief antibody at the moment.

Yeah. I mean, you know, obviously, he’s more frail now after a sort of, breath of tough health issues. But, no, he is the last republican leader of the pre trump wing of the party. That’s why he went on TV. You you rarely does this over the weekend at two Sunday shows.

Make him the case to link Israel. And if you feel strongly about those issues, he is most appalled by the isolationist instincts of the sort of trump. You’re a party.

Right now, he may be Joe Biden’s most important ally in Congress, which is a bizarre thing to say.

No question about it. Certainly in the Senate and when the time comes to move a bill over to the house, he obviously is gonna have some say as to how that’s done. It’s gonna have to be a finesse job. I’ll take democratic votes to do it. Well, I mean, he is indispensable to what is now effectively Charlie Sykes war presidency.

If tomorrow, McConnell could not serve any longer as leader, I think you would see three people emerge on named John. John Baraso from Wyoming, John foreigner from Texas. John Du from South Dakota. Barasso is probably the most conservative most trump adjacent of the three, but I’m not sure how genuine that is. Certainly corn in the thune very much traditional Republicans and kind of the the McConnell mold.

It does make me wonder. Would there be somebody a younger center, Republican who would try to run that is more reflective of the trump you’re weighing in the party. I’m not sure he or she would find much luck. But you can sort of see somebody making that case that Trump’s the leader of our party. He should be reflected in the senate leadership.

I think it’s totally plausible. A lot of this hangs on twenty twenty four, I think, and what is Trump’s status after that. Right?

Well, yeah. I I I know that nobody’s replaceable and and related this question, but can anybody take Mitch McConnell’s place in terms of the role that he is playing? So, I mean, is he right now the essential man? And I’m thinking in terms of the Ukraine policy, Ukraine Israel policy. Because you take him out.

Does anybody else have the clout, the leadership, the willingness to stand up to to Magga World that he has? And, again, his record is decidedly mixed.

He is a internationalist to his core. He believes very much in projecting American strength abroad. And I mentioned the piece earlier that I did, that your listeners can read about McConnell in winter fighting this, but maybe the final war of his career on the issue of keeping the Republican party on the internationalist track. And I spent time in Europe and I talked to top European diplomats and leaders And, they have relationships with McConnell, to your point. And in a way that, you know, I don’t think his successor is gonna step in and have those relationships with NATO leaders, with the leaders, in Finland, obviously, the newest entrant into into NATO with other leaders across the continent.

So yeah, I think McConnell in terms of the the relationships alone abroad is gonna be hard to replace on the GOP side.

By the time people watch this, they will know the results. So but you and I are watching all of this stuff in real time as It’s afternoon in Oxford. It’s morning here in in Wisconsin. The first ballot totals for speaker in the Republican conference, Tom Emerse seventy eight, Johnson thirty four, Donald’s twenty nine, Hern twenty seven, Kind of interesting. I mean, clearly you get a sense of how divided they are, Emma being the front runner We of course don’t know whether whoever comes out of this will get to two seventeen.

But let’s go back to this for a moment because there are some key questions about whoever becomes speaker. Number one, whoever becomes speaker has to immediately decide whether or, they’re going to support or how they’re gonna handle a continuing resolution to keep the government open. Right? I mean, that’s become a life or death issue as as in.

Right? So

that’s the first question. Are they going to be able to deal with Democrats? Because that’s what killed Kevin McCarthy. Right? And yet, how do you get a CR without dealing with Democrats?

Whoever gets this job, it may be a fourteen month term.

And that could be just right

because coming out of this, One more divided vote where they basically nominate a speaker or elevate a speaker because they’re just tired of it and exhausted and embarrassed by it That person is gonna have to immediately figure out how to fund the government next year and how to find money to Israel and Ukraine. Those are tall orders to say the least in the house GOP. That’s why so many people in the in the conference, Charlie, don’t want the job. Look. There are people who I think would be formidable speakers, but they’re not going near this job because they know that that’s a bankless task,

terrible job.

Well, I I think it’s gonna be a messy few weeks and months here trying to, you know, do the basics. But, well, you just mentioned time. That speaks to how divided they still are. The fact that he’s the next guy in line, at least by the order of the the current leadership and he couldn’t even get eighty votes on the first ballot.

Yeah. That’s surprising. I mean, he may end up getting, you know, the second or third of the fourth ballot, but He

must see there what what trump does. By the way, because Trump obviously has a history with ever, you know, ever called him of the weekend to try to sort of diffuse their their challenges. But

You’re right. I mean, the one thing Emmer from some of the other candidates is he did vote in fact to certify the presidential election. I mean, the Biden witness. Yes. He’s also voted in favor of recognizing, gay marriages, which is a, right, real hot button issue for members of that caucus.

The initial buzz was Trump world was gonna do everything possible to cut Emma off at the knees. But then he called me, sucked up and said to Donald Trump, I am your biggest fan and

I’m guessing how that works. Yeah. Exactly. Right.

We will see how it works. Okay. Let’s talk about the presidential primary, because you mentioned this this parallel primary You made the the observation that Ron DeSantis, his strategy was to try to blur that lines between the pre and the post Trump party, and he ended up alienating both groups. I mean, DeSantis had a theory of the case that just was a complete flop.

Yeah. Look. I think like Kevin McCarthy, Ron DeSantis, trying to be a hybrid. He he tried to avoid making the choice. He said, I don’t have to decide and you Republican voters, you don’t have to decide either.

You don’t have to say which which camp you’re in, a post trump or pre trump, I’m gonna give you both if you want them. You know, it’s like y’all saw about, you know, you could lose weight and not change what you’re what you’re eating and don’t exercise at all, man. It’s like Sounds good to me. So I’m here for that day. You know, it’s a little harder application.

I’m talking about Rob this in just not not the diet. Yeah. But what? Because when you run around bashing the establishment and equivocating on Ukraine aid, floating, you know, RfK junior to be in your administration, trying to outbid trump on the border, outbid trump on every kind of culture issue. Yeah.

It turns out like the pre trump establishment that’s up for grabs doesn’t like that stuff. And then when you try to buy the b, Trump’s successor and Trump is in the race. Well, that’s gonna irritate Trump’s people. Right? So I don’t understand this belief that you can sort of be all things to all people in this moment where there’s such an obvious bright line.

But we saw this early Charlie. I mean, he you know, from early on, he tried to run to the right and it was like the the Ted cruise twenty sixteen campaign.

Yeah.

There’s just not enough votes out there. Look, it’s not an easy task. To be fair to run to say this, if you are trying to beat Donald Trump, you have to put together a coalition of folks that listen to your podcast to kind of never trump or types. The folks that we’re fine with trump would just kinda wanna move on. Right?

And then kind of like the pre trump party establishment out of the Wall Street Journal editorial page. And that’s not easy to forge that coalition. Right? It’s not easy. And especially now when he got, you know, other candidates in the race.

But boy, he didn’t make it easy on himself.

Unfortunately, he was a bad candidate. I mean, you know, that’s he was not able to scale up from being governor to a presidential race. And I’ve seen Scott Walker do that as well. I mean, you know, he he doesn’t just play an asshole on television. Apparently, he he is one But I also think that at the heart of all of this was this magical thinking that somehow something something something would happen, the unicorn would come along and Donald Trump would disappear.

I think that they thought that with all of these indictments that Republicans would surely turn to somebody else that they would want, you know, the trumpism without Trump baggage, And they, I think, are as shocked as anyone. Yes. That Donald Trump became stronger with every indictment. Is there any scenario in your mind in which Donald Trump, at this point does not get the Republican nomination?

I think it’s less likely at this stage given that, you know, we are fast approaching November here and obviously it’s formidable. I still think it’s possible. I wouldn’t wanna be the team coming out of the locker room in the second half, Charlie Sykes this deficit. But, I think it’s it’s still possible. But look, it would take significant and rapid coalesce Right.

Behind an alternative here that we have not seen, and it would take defeating Trump early. You gotta get him an IOR interview. I’m sure there’s just there’s no way that this this is a traditional race where, oh, we’ll windows the field in Iowa and then New Hampshire and then we’ll battle down and tell line on Super Tuesday.

It’s gonna be over like that.

Yeah. That’s right. It’s gotta happen sooner than that. They gotta get behind one, Cuba. And I tell you, I’m really interested.

I think the next couple of months are gonna be fascinating because the amount of pressure, especially from the money crowd that is just you know, petrified about trump at the nominee again that I think it’s gonna sort of come to bear of trying to win all this feels gonna be fascinating.

Okay. So who drops out? I mean, Tim Scott seems like he’s dead man walking. Mike Pence can’t get fifteen people to show up at, you know, at Pizza Hut or whatever that that was. Where where where he was.

Keith or ants. Come on, man. This is

giving me the twenty sixteen vibes where it appears at least on paper. Yeah. On paper, that the one person who might be able to go one on one would be Nikki Haley, but what’s happening right now in Rhonda Santis is attacking Nikki Haley. So that’s very twenty sixteen.

Yeah. I was gonna say speaking of twenty sixteen vibes, yeah, we we certainly saw that movie. With jab, Bush, Marco Rubio.

Yeah.

No. It’s so true. You know, these candidates can’t help themselves. And when they see one, emerging as the alternative. They try to knock down that key to it instead of focusing on the person that they’re trying to be the alternative to.

And of course that that is what Trump loves. But yeah, what? I mean, I think it’s pretty clear at this stage that the alternative that if there is one would be to see this or or Nick Haley and I this next debate in November will go some ways to clarifying that. I think if Dickahili does well in that debate, I think you’ll see a ton of money move her away. And I think you’ll see pressure, all the other candidates, the rates to drop out.

Does the money make any difference anymore, though? I mean, this is serious, guys. I mean, because given the nature of our politics and the communications, the way in which, you know, information spreads and the way the base is broken down. So let’s say that hundred million dollars a giver. What what happens?

What does she do with it?

I think the answer to your question, the way you’re phrasing it. No. It doesn’t matter that much. Yeah. I think it matters in the sense of sending a message as to who the trump alternative is.

Right. It’s a cue.

Oh, I see.

Okay. Enforcements it’s money and it’s folks dropping out and, you know, taking those cues. And I think that’s that’s where it matters. Right? It’s sort of picking up the money crowd picking up endorsements, you know, having good debate performances.

I think that’s the stuff.

Okay. Let’s do and I engaged in a little bit of magical thinking because we remember what happened with the Democrats back in twenty twenty. Where it looked like Bernie Sanders might win. And then suddenly, the entire field costs that in fact, even in retrospect, it is amazing. All of the candidates dropped out and said, no, we have to endorse Joe Biden.

So what you’re saying is the money people get together and they say, let’s I’m engaging in magical thinking here. We want it to be Haley, and we’re sending that out. She has a good debate. And so Mike Pence drops out endorses Nikki Haley. Right?

Yes. Tim Scott drops out and dorses Nikki Haley. I’m I’m making this up as I go along. Glenn Young says I’m not running. I’m supporting Nikki Haley.

Does it create a How does it play at?

Brian Kemp says, look folks. I beat Trump. I know what it takes to beat Trump. Nikki Haley is the one that can do it. We gotta get behind her.

This is the moment. Yes. I think that’s what it takes. And I think that your model is exactly right. And I think if if there’s an anti trump Public out there who’s looking maybe even praying for for some answering the curve of how trump can be stopped.

I think it’s unlikely. But I think that is the way that we see a repeat, in some fashion of the twenty twenty democratic primary. That is the precedent. And to your point, Charlie Sykes how politics works today, it is so lightning quick. Joe Biden won the South Carolina primary after being o for three.

Saturday night in February. Alright. Super Tuesday. What’s the following Tuesday? Three days later in that seventy two hour period.

I didn’t effectively wrap up as part of this nomination. Just like that.

Right. Right.

Because of those cues that I mentioned earlier. Right? The cues that were sent Okay. Amy Klobuchar drops out mayor Pete drops out Beto emerges from exile.

Yeah. And

they all rally to Biden. Obama makes a few well placed phone calls, and there’s this incredible momentum swing to Biden starting at Saturday about nine thirty at night. That that winds up leaving Biden the nominee effectively. He had this Oregon Michigan still, but effectively, the following Tuesday night after super Tuesday. Right?

Now, other stuff played a part there. Bernie didn’t have a great period after Nevada. Bloomberg got crushed by a little bit Warren out of the Bay state.

Right.

The there were helpful factors. If you’re somebody looking to stop Trump, that’s the model for how it happens. There’s a fast coalescence. Alright. That’s the good news for folks looking to stop Trump.

The bad news is Bernie Sanders ain’t Donald Trump.

That’s where the analogy gets a little bit

It does. Donald Trump is a global phenomenon with an iron grip on millions of people in this country across every state. Bernie Sanders was not that and so is a little different. Also, Charlie, so many democratic primary voters in twenty twenty. Were one issue voters.

And the one issue was who can beat trump in the fall? That’s all they cared about.

That’s all they cared about.

And look, some of those people still exist today. They’re one issue voters. It’s who can beat Donald Trump in our primary today.

Yeah.

But, you know, what is that? Pound people and the primary is that. You know?

Okay. So in the in the time we have left, you were a very this is, by the way, is the least popular topic among our audience. I just wanted to to warn you, you know, trigger warning here. You are a really, really strong piece in politico about Biden’s age.

Yes.

And the fact that Biden is not directly addressing that age issue. Yeah. This was a very strong piece. I was starting to think that they had figured out that if they joked about it, if they sort of, it’ll bringing it up, everything. But but you point out that they’ve done very little to confront the biggest threat to his reelection.

They’re not polling about it. So talk to me about that because I I was shocked by your piece that there had not been more focus on confronting what is the elephant in the room.

His staff and his advisors know to sense an issue. They don’t wanna be the ones who go into the office and say, hey, boss. The overriding issue about you and what defines you with most American voters is a year old man. And when you gotta try to fix that, like, who wants to be that staffer? Right?

I mean, not a lot of my hands going up. But it was striking me to learn that, you know, even away from Biden a little bit, that at the research level, there’s just not the appetite to pull it. That that may change your closer to the campaign. But yeah, I mean, I think it’s a pretty cavalier attitude. Every focus.

Everyone.

Among voters, among swing voters. Talk to any pollster in America. When you bring up Biden’s name, he’s entirely defined by his age. Nobody knows anything he’s done. All I know is that he’s an old guy who occasionally has gas or falls down.

That’s just what voters say. It just is. I’m not sure that Biden is willing to confront it. If you put Biden on truth serum, I think he’d probably say they’re gonna vote for old versus crazy or, you know, you know, old versus this is criminal. You know?

Yeah. I’m old, but he’s crazy. I mean, that’s about the best formula you can come up with. Right? Yes.

I I am old. He’s nuts. He’s dangerous.

Or, you know, he’s gonna like irons and he’s going to serve five years in federal prison. I mean, that to put a finer point on it. Right? And if that’s the alternative, obviously Biden can make that case, but you gotta be willing to make it. Right?

I I don’t know if Biden’s pride will will Will Saletan him. There’s a a great old line I actually used at the end of that piece, but I’ll mention it here because the political junkies will will appreciate this. One of the most memorable campaigns, at the state level of modern American history. When David Duke was the nominee for governor of Louisiana in nineteen ninety one, He’s running against an old cage named Edwin Edwards. Edwin Edwards was not burdened by a strong moral compass Charlie putting mild today.

Yeah.

There’s, you know, saying about Louisiana. He said everybody in Louisiana is out or under water or under advisement. I would have been under indictment even done some time. But he was the democratic standard bearer, and he was the only guy standing between the state of Louisiana and a klansman being there Right? And there was this great bumper sticker that emerged.

And bumper sticker said vote for the crook. It’s important.

Oh. It

was a great way to Louisiana voters because it was saying you you don’t maybe like this guy, but that’s the best alternative we’ve got. Right? And so can buy and come up with the equivalent of that. Right? Vote for the Cogger.

It’s important. Right? I mean, we’ll say

Well, I can see Trump doing the same thing. I I can see him having, you know, the ankle bracelet as the symbol, you know, vote for the crook because it’s important and his base will go absolutely. Absolutely. So wow. Good point.

We apparently are about to buy this ticket again, and it’s gonna be one hell of a ride, Jonathan Last

remarkable. It’s a long ways from from Scott Walker and Paul Ryan. She’s had time in Wisconsin, man. Those were quaint days.

Tell me about a kinder gentler era. We didn’t think so at the time. Hey, enjoy your time in Blighty. And we’ll talk when you get back.

Thanks, Charlie.

Thanks a lot. And thank you all for listening to today’s Bulwark podcast. I’m Charlie Sykes. We’ll be back tomorrow, and we’ll do this all over again. Bohr contest is produced by Katie Cooper, and engineered and edited by Jason Brown.