Mark McKinnon: The Message Still Matters

Welcome to the Bullework Podcast. I’m Charlie Sykes. Republicans have officially taken control of the House of Representatives. And I see that Jim Jordan is already on cue. Going to hold a press conference about investigations into the Biden family.

Well, they are nothing if not predictable. Meanwhile, we are getting word that on the house floor at noon. Probably will have already heard this by the time this this podcast Nancy Pelosi will give a speech crafted in part by historian John Meacham announcing that she intends to pass the torch, that she will be stepping down from leadership, but will remain in Congress as an emeritus back venture. And she is going to be passing the torch to future leader, Hakim Jeffrey. So we have so much to talk about here.

We are joined by Mark McKeon Ken and media adviser for both Democratic and Republican campaigns, including George W. John McCain, late Texas governor in Richards, late Texas representative Charlie Wilson. And of course, he’s the co creator, co executive producer and co host of Showtime’s The Circus. Inside the greatest political show on Earth. And of course, we know that the Bulleic’s own Tim Miller’s group as a guest host earlier this season.

So first of all, good morning, Mark. How are

you? Good morning. It was great having Tim in the cockpit. He was terrific.

And did he behave well? Did he get along

with him? Not at all. He didn’t behave

at all. That’s why he was so good. I’m gonna talk to him actually later today for tomorrow’s podcast. I’m gonna get his side of the story, including what the hell

happened in Arizona. He spent a lot of time down there, so he’s got a lot of good insights.

I know. I am anxious to talk to him. So let’s just start off with his breaking story. This is fresh. At least for us, Nancy the Nancy Pelosi passing the baton.

Your thoughts, Mark. Well,

as usual, this morning, Charlie, no lack of material and this is a a big breaking news development. And I think a really good one for for politics in general, but especially for the Democratic party, it’s it’s stunning to me. There’s some data that I saw recently about the average age of of office holders in America these days. And it’s like seventy. It’s ridiculous.

And and it’s it’s like, you know, twenty years higher than it was just a decade or two ago. And you’d think given the kind of emerging demographics of the country, it would be just the opposite. Right? And, you know, it looks like it’s we’re gonna potentially have two eighty year olds running for president from both parties. So I thought for a long time that both parties should look to their benches and and appeal to the growing demographics of younger voters who are increasingly, obviously, important.

And Hakim Jeffries is a very, very talented guy and I think, you know, a very good message for Democrats to be sending that they’re gonna they’re gonna go younger for finally. So looking back on Nancy

Pelosi’s career, you know, she was always the number one target. Yeah. I mean, she appeared in every single ad, everywhere in the country. But in retrospect, she will be remembered as one of the most effective speakers. Won’t she?

What how do you think she’s going to be remembered?

Yes. I I I don’t think you get much argument, not only from Democrats, but from Republicans. Republicans recognized just how powerful a speaker she was, and that’s why she was the target of so much Republican attacks and angst because she was so effective. I think that there’s just no question that she will go down as one of the most talented, gifted, and effective speakers in American history. And I I

think it will be reminded of that very very shortly because she was able to accomplish quite a bit with a very very narrow majority.

Yeah. Good point.

How do you think Kevin McCarthy is going to stack up assuming that he gets because he’s gonna have a very, very slim majority. And somehow, Nancy Pelosi was able to herd all of those cats and get legislation passed, which is really remarkable. I I think it’s we’re going to be reminded how remarkable it was when we see the cluster fuck that even McCarthy is gonna preside over.

Listen, that’s a great point. I think I think that’s exactly right. And I had your old friend and colleague David Jolly on the show to talk about McCarthy. You guys know him well, but I mean, Jolly’s point was a, you know, it’s not even clear he would b speaker, but if he is, he’s gonna be the most miserable speaker in the history. The most miserable and least effective as compared especially to Nancy Lucy.

And we’re seeing it all ready this morning. And in the last twenty four hours, I think he mentioned Jim Jordan And he’s dancing down the halls right now because it’s pretty clear that that actually, it’s not inflation that he’s so concerned about, but it’s gonna be investing. Not just Hunter Biden, but they’re planning on investigating the justice department and the prosecution of Jan six, insurrectionist. Right? So this now what we’re gonna be seeing from a Republican Party is the grand defense of the insurrectionist.

And that’s that’s their that’s their primary agenda right now. And so, yes, to your point, I don’t think McCarthy is gonna hurt any of these cats and the cats are going

crazy. So you traveled all around the country during the campaign. And, of course, there were a lot of cross a lot of people concerned about inflation, about the state of the economy, the national debt, abortion, crime, the border. What percentage of voters do you think were motivated to go to the polls? Because they thought I want a Republican Congress that will get to the bottom of the Hunter Biden laptop store.

You know, it’s it’s just amazing that the Republican Party could claw their way to the bottom in an electoral environment. So advantageous. You know, I mean, first of all, you have the historical trends. You know, Obama, who was a pretty popular Democratic president, I think lost sixty something seats Clinton lost fifty something seats for Republicans. Just based on historical trends, you’d expect that, you know, there’d be plus thirty plus forty seats for Republicans.

And then you stack on top of that the just the issue environment that was so good for Republicans when you just you just the top three economy and crime in the border. And yet they didn’t have the discipline to, well, first of all, nominate candidates who weren’t election deniers. Arizona is a great example. You had a terrifically talented candidate and carried lake. Who if she just sort of run on those issues would have won by, you know, probably double digits and yet she was down there saying that the John McCain voters were not welcome in Arizona for god’s sake.

You know, and I know that, you know, it’s been a while since John McCain was around, but there’s still a lot of reverence for John McCain and a lot of people said, well, what’s you’re kicking out John McCain voters out of the party, you you’re including me. And and so there were just a lot of Republicans around the country, you know, Charlie who share some of our DNA that just said, listen, you know, we got to get the crazy off the crazy train here and and and that’s what we saw was just a they got a great sigh of relief for those of us who just said, finally, there’s some semblance of sanity and the American voters who said, you know, stop the madness. But I think it’s gonna become very

clear that Republicans are not gonna learn the lesson from this. So, you know, Jim Jordan, going after Hunter Biden, Kerry Lake, in the closing days of the campaign saying she doesn’t want any McCain Republicans around they have become so focused on appealing to the base, machining up the base, giving the maga right their dopamine hit. That they don’t appear to be willing to make a pivot to say, okay, you know, what might have played in a primary or on Fox News is not necessarily a formula for winning general

elections. No question about it. I mean, that’s exactly why those of us who had hoped that there was some the Republicans would, you know, put take Donald Trump, get him off the windshield, put him in the rearview mirror, and look toward the sort of compassionate conservative message that attracted people like me to the party and they’re going just the opposite way. In fact, it appears that they’ve learned no lessons. And that’s we’re seeing from the the leadership fight with the Republican Party.

And if that’s the way that they’re gonna go, then, you know, democrats should be very jubilant right now. So

let’s talk about Donald Trump. You know, I’ve I’ve been reading a lot of the Trump is done porn, which I enjoy, and I like to watch. I’m going to admit all of that. I think that it’s premature, but I wanna get your take on on that announcement. The timing of that announcement, why he decided to do it.

How tired and boring and disconnected he seemed and the crickets in response from the usual suspects in the Republican Party who would normally flock to his banner. So let’s just talk about that event. You know, you’ve you’ve put together these events, you’ve advised people you’ve written speeches, what did you think about Monday night? Well, it felt like light elvis for sure. And

it was sleepy. Donald Trump, which was, you know, ironic at the very least, it

was shockingly bad. Shawn. I mean, just to see the video of the people wandering around in the back while he’s low energy droning on, and they’re trying to get out

of the hall and not allowed to leave the hall. I mean, oh my god. It was interesting to see how quickly, how many people are how many rats are leaving the ship. I mean, just a good example, I think it’s Christie Nolan, you know, somebody who, you know, wants carved Donald Trump into the the rocks of South Dakota as a as a offering. And still, the thing we know about Donald Trump and the reason why he has announced when he did, and the reason he announced for president eight years ago was that all he really cares about is attention.

You know, that’s that’s his drug. And he ran for president with no notion that he was gonna be president. In fact, he was surprised as most people were when he actually won the election. He was gonna go run and because he knows that running for president is the brightest spotlight in the biggest stage in the world, and he was gonna do that, and then he was gonna go endorse Chris Christie. For president just kept winning.

And now the notion that, you know, Ron DeSantis or anybody else in the Republican Party should have the spotlight is just doesn’t figure into his thinking.

And so

he’s gonna he jumps on the stage to attract the spotlight, which he did, and

the spotlight

was not very excited about what it saw. But all of that said, that mega base, that hardcore base, whatever it is, you whatever that number is, twenty five, thirty percent of of Republicans, you go around the country and you think if there’s a, you know, it’s it’s it’s not just gonna be wrong to Sandoz, other people are gonna run. You divide up the rest of the field. And as you know, Charlie, it’s a winner take all primary. And if Donald Trump runs around the country getting thirty percent of those primary votes, and nobody else can can exceed that.

He’s still got at least a reasonable chance of being a Republican nominee. So

what is the mood? What what is the mood among Republicans? Last week, there seemed to be this recognition, like, oh my god. This stuff is politically toxic. Sec.

If we roll into twenty twenty four with this message with somebody who’s continuing to re litigate the last election, we’re gonna lose. I mean, there seems to be at least a temporary sense that a normal Republican stands a very good chance of winning in twenty twenty four, but Donald Trump appears to be almost a sure loser. At least that’s what I’m getting sort of the under their breath and sometimes not under their breath commentary at the moment. Howard Bauchner: Yeah,

enormous frustration, I think, from most of the Republicans that I talked to, that that again,

you know,

saw huge advantages going into these midterms feel like they blew it for a lot of reasons, but including and especially Donald Trump, you know, putting up bad candidates and then running around the country in the closing days of the election to remind everybody that he was a big part of or wanted to be a big part of the future. So I think there’s a lot of gnashing of teeth, a lot of angst just because they see that you know, if you could just cut that anchor off the party, the Republican Party would be floating pretty well in these political sees right now. And yet, it

just keeps dragging him down. They they can’t quit him. You know, they they can’t quit him. And I’m I’m really struggling to find the the scenario. I mean, you’d have to have the fuel coalescing.

It would have to be one on one. We don’t know what the Rhonda Sandisk is gonna get in. Do you think Rhonda Sandisk will get

in? What do you think? It’s an interesting question because I I think the conventional wisdom is, you know, he’s the guy to fact that we’re gonna get in. I

I

think though that’s premature and it’s and it’s just that it’s conventional wisdom. First of all, he doesn’t have to do anything for a long time. So

he hasn’t managed to

be able to sit back If he’s smart, just let, you know, let Trump stew in his own juices, which you know he’s gonna do. But I think to your main point is that there’s really no scenario I see where Donald Trump just says, you know what? I’m gonna fold it up. I mean, he’s just gonna be a vengeance to her. I mean, you know he’s writing down names.

You know, he’s christy gnomes at the top of that list right now. And so I mean, do you see a scenario? I’m I’m talking no. I mean, maybe a health event, but there’s no legal event that’s gonna stop him. In fact, just the opposite.

I think that’s gonna motivate him. So under what scenario does Donald Trump not run? I don’t see one.

No. I see no scenario whatsoever. And the key is DeSantis because DeSantis has so much credibility and support with the base. He has a kind of unique status right now. I cannot even imagine what this scenario that Mike Pence is imagining.

I don’t see any path for him. And I’m skeptical of, you know, the Chris Christie’s of the world. What do you think? I mean, Pence is clearly in a in a rollout mode, but and I was listening to him, you know, sort of, drone on, speaking of of low energy. Does Mike Pence really thank that the Republican Party is gonna turn from Donald Trump to him?

I think he does. I think he and his brother and I just don’t know a single other person that that is excited about the no of a Mike Pence candidacy. I mean, he’s the kind of guy who

sort of

tries to please everybody and pleases nobody exactly. Yeah. But there’s some interesting dynamics going on. You you know that a lot of people will just show up because run for president, means money, it means attention, and so there’s a lot of people out there who, you know, Pompeo’s, the you just kinda go down the list of people who are gonna put their name on the list anyway. And I, you know, I think somebody like the Len Young comes an interesting candidate.

I I like his sort of sunny optimistic sort of, you know, version of Republican message and somebody like him, I think, is in an interesting sort

of

you

know, stocking position. And

Trump thinks so too. Otherwise, he wouldn’t have launched that stupid and named racist attack on his

name. Exactly right. Exactly right. And And the thing about DeSantis is that, you know, he’s obviously enormously talented, super smart, but I think he’s wound really tight and he has a very small decision making circle which is basically him and his wife. And, you know, when you go on the presidential stage, you can’t do that.

You’ve gotta delegate and you gotta let things go and that’s gonna be hard for him to do so. You know, there’s a long list of people who were the sort of de facto favorites, you know, that we can go down the line and talk about. So, you know, DeSantis is in a very strong position, but know, the closer you get to the sun, the bigger people melt. So we’ll see. Well, Pompeo

is also kind of interesting. He’s taking you some pretty direct shots now. Yeah. And Trump more aggressively than I would have thought he put out a statement, you know, essentially mocking Trump for saying that I am a victim again, speaking of dark horses that are out there. But he’s taken a more aggressive anti Trump stand than virtually any of the other major candidates with a possible exception of say, Chris Christie, who I don’t think is major.

Yeah, that’s

interesting. And and the things that’s caught my attention to that and like the a christy known thing. It’s like, oh, this is interesting. You know, the people who have been kind of the devil’s disciples and acolytes are turning, and it reminds me of a man who would be king. You know, this is the old story about the guys that go down into Africa and they’ve never seen a white man before and they they think that he’s a god and everything’s fine until he suddenly is cut me believes and as soon as they see that he’s mortal, they throw him in a pot and cook him and eat him.

And so there’s gonna be that element to Trump, but it’s not gonna phase Trump. It’s just gonna make it matter. So that’s the

dynamic we have. Well, let’s talk about this sort of the iron triangle of the Republican Party, obviously, including, you know, one side being the media. What do you make of the Murdoch Empire pivot, which seems to be very sharp and relatively savage. Boy, not even relatively Florida man announces, I know. Page twenty six.

Yeah. I’m talking

about the New York Post headline yesterday. The Murdoch’s obviously have enormous sway and influence and that got my attention more than anything just how quickly that empire has turned. Yeah. And and that’s a that’s a big damn deal.

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out. Okay.

How big a deal is it? Let’s try to factor this out. So when we’re talking about this, we’re talking about the Wall Street Journal, the New York Post, which yeah. But Fox News, Yeah. So how big a problem is that for Trump

now? Like, he doesn’t he just go

to NewsMax and OAN and get the base to turn against Fox, you know?

Yeah. He will. And he’ll try and position them now as kind of the establishment and

we’ll, you

know, feed fuel to the OEMs and the and the other. But the desantises and the others will be jockeying for that considerable attention and therefore influencing money So it’s really gonna divide up the the Republican ecosystem that once was in lockstep behind Trump. So it’s not just the party that’s divided, you know, it’s it’s the media ecosystem, and that’s where that’s gonna be a big change. Which is crucial. And and the thing about it is is that, you

know, Trump benefited from having this alternative reality silo, but at least right now, it’s not a complete silo. It’s not a complete bubble so that that your hardcore Fox news viewer is going to be hearing these critiques. It’s going to be hearing people that they know and they like saying, hey, it’s time to turn the page. This guy is a loser. When Fox News cut away in the middle of his speech, I thought that was also kind of a tell.

I mean, That was a very different vibe than you had in twenty sixteen when everybody hung breathless. When even Sean Hannity is basically saying to his producer, hey, we gotta cut away from this. This is death. This is this is boring. You know?

Give me ten seconds here. Yeah. That’s a moment. That’s a moment, and it’s I I listen, I think between that and, you know, what’s

happening with the McCarthy speakership, I just think it’s gonna be really a chaotic time for the Republic party. And the irony of it is happening at a time when there’s so much potential for a Republican party. I mean, it looks like Biden’s gonna run again, which, you know, I just think is

so bad for

the Democratic Party. And if that’s the case, then just, you know, the only thing that can really screw that up is Donald Trump, and it looks like he’s gonna screw it up. The problem for

the Democrats though was what is their plan b? So let’s say that Joe Biden comes back from his victory lap and says, okay, you know what? I’ve accomplished everything I’m gonna accomplish. I I like Nancy Pelosi, I’m going to pass the torch. What is the scenario that is better for democrats than Joe Biden.

Right? Oh, I think there’s lots

of I mean, Hamala Harris. No. Not Harris. But like aggression with Margate, you know, a Midwest woman governor. But could she win a primary?

Or did she win a primary? Or did she win a? Yeah. Absolutely. I

think she’ll be very sensitive. Okay. So we’re talking about the media. That’s, you know, one big aspect. What about the donor class?

This also seems to be an emerging story that some of the mega donors are backing away. That strikes me as less important than the media because Trump has lots of money in the bank, not maybe personally, but he has lots of money in the bank. And of course, has the ability to raise it with, you know, small donors. But it is interesting that to the extent that there remains an establishment in the Republican Party, you know, the billionaire oligarch class, they appear to have gotten tired of Trump.

So how significant is that? I think it’s just more signals and they’re quick and they’re clear. I mean, that’s the thing. They’re they’re major donors. They’re major, you know, Republican media outlets.

They’re major Republican characters in the in the ecosystem have all set up a pretty clear flare. And that’s that’s what’s surprising to me. I kinda I — Yeah. — I just didn’t expect it so fast and so furious. No.

And the downstream effects are already beginning to be apparent. So for example, an organization like Club for Growth. Which had been very anti Trump and then suddenly became very, very pro Trump and is now back to being anti Trump. With groups like that, you always have to ask Okay. So what is the money trail?

Who’s pulling the stream here? And who’s changed their mind about all of this? And that That applies to all of these organizations that may appear to be disconnected, but generally do answer to their master’s voices. So we we we have all of that. We what do you make of the polls?

Because okay. So we we have the the media. We have the donor class. Obviously, the key here are the primary voters. We are getting a series of polls suggesting erosion of support.

And, you know, several have shown Dasand is leading Trump. Do you believe that? Are they reliable polls? What do you think is happening? Well, first

of all, on the on the whole money, don’t you’re saying yes? Just watch the drift of the drift. The drift of the drift. Right? That that’ll be a good

signal. I

you know, listen, I’m I’m skeptical about any pulling anymore because it’s been, you know, it’s been at least a decade before I actually met a real human being and he answered a poll. So there’s lots of evidence to give oxygen to the skepticism. But listen, I think there’s trend lines that hold up that show that there’s a real appetite or an alternative to Donald Trump. The problem is that as strong as that appetite is, there is also that thirty percent who won’t ever go anywhere. Right.

And that’s the problem. I mean, there’s there’s there’s a decided group of Republicans who see the writing on the wall, and there’s a decided group that will never see the on the wall.

And that’s the problem. And we need to get your take on this because I I think there are a lot of people who are engaging in wishcasting who think that okay. So Trump is running again, but when the indictments come down, that’s going to derail him. That will be the end of Trump. I actually have a contrarian take on that.

The Donald Trump is looking at that take that’s the one thing that will get me back my mojo. The moment those come down, then I am the martyr. I am the victim. They are coming for you. And the base will rally around me.

Everybody will be forced to rally around me again. What do you think? What will the impact of the indictments be on on Trump’s prospects to get the nomination. I’m with

you a hundred percent. I mean, just to look back to the Mar a Lago quote raid when, you know, DeSantis getting a lot of fuel at that moment. And then suddenly, there was kind of this, you know, rally toward back to Trump. He’s all about grievance and all about conspiracy and all about rallying the base to say, you know, they’re coming for you, but they gotta but they’re going through me to get to you. Any prosecution for Trump himself and for Trump acolytes is evidence of a witch hunt.

And so these prosecutions will I I think only fuel the fire for Trump and for his base. And by the way, lots of people I know just, you know, sort of

doom scroll on

the Trump legal front thinking, you know, this is gonna be the one together. But

I’ll I’ll

remind them that, you know, First of all, he’s the master of running out legal clocks on all these things, and not only that, but I also remind them that none of these legal entanglements will stop him or even slow him down, and I’ll I’ll just put as exhibit a nineteen twenty Eugene Debbs. You remember he he ran for president from prison, so there’s no legal scenario that’s gonna stop Trump from running. The only scenario that makes a difference is if in the

minds of Republicans, the indictment clicks together with the electability question and there, you know, becomes a consensus that look, whether this is fair or unfair. We don’t wanna roll into the twenty twenty four election with a nominee who’s under indictment. We should go with a winner. So but again, those theoretical things, I think, tend to get to get trumped by the gut emotion. I mean, isn’t that kind of the heart of the the allegiance that he has.

It’s it’s not anything he says. It’s not any policy. It’s just an emotional bond. And emotional bonds are unbreakable. That’s exactly

right. It’s a and it’s a tribe, man. And they’re gonna rally to him, and the more you attack him, the more they’re gonna rally. Because they feel like it’s not just attacking him, it’s attacking them. And so that’s that’s why that that had that fundamental base for Trump is so strong and will never go anywhere, and the more you attack them, the more they rally.

Although, I will say to your point, it’s not a bad message for anybody else but Trump to say, Un indicted? Yeah.

Or or if

somebody else say it for them. Okay. So Mark, you traveled all around the country for the circus, you know, talking to people watching these races, attending events. What was

the most

interesting thing that you saw in retrospect? What was the most interesting episode?

Well,

one of the

things

that struck me about this election, Charlie, is just how you have to be really careful not to be seduced by not only the narrative, but even what’s happening on the ground because and that this was a real enlightening thing for me this election. You know, we sort of say, you know, we, those of us who try and get out and go around the country and get boots on the ground, which we do a ton of on the circus to say, you know, listen, I’m I’m on the ground here and let’s just take New Hampshire for example. And, you know, I went and saw a Maggie Hasson event and it was the sleepiest thing I’d seen in a long time, you know, at this trip mall campaign headquarters, which you’ve seen thousands of. You know, it’s just a classic. And but they you know, there were thirty people there.

Well, you know, about to go out and put out yards. And then it went to this bold look event and it was this rampaging town hall and, you know, people were on fire and you know, he just gave this browsing speech. And and if you just gone to those two events and tried to gauge what was gonna happen based on sort of the excitement in of, you know, what was happening on the ground. You’d say, god. Don Ball, it’s gonna win this election.

Same thing in Arizona. Right?

I mean, the same kind

of thing in Arizona. And so what it told me is that you gotta really be careful about even what you see yourself with your own eyes because I think this was an election where voters showed that they were very discerning. And democrats and independents and soft Republicans, you know, they may not have been jumping around in the aisles, but they were very committed They were very serious. We saw a lot of split ticket voting. So I thought it was a very encouraging election from that point of view, just in the sense that people man, they dug deep on this one.

They were determined. You know, they weren’t seduced by crowds or seduced by the polls or the media you know, all these narratives that we’re going around. People just said, you know what? I am thinking hard about this, and I’m gonna express myself in

a way that is contrary to the narrative that’s out there. So how much of that explains that shift in the in the conventional hive mind in the weak for the election that this was going to be a big red way. Because I’ll I’ll be honest with you. And if I’d gone to that New Hampshire event or if I’d gone to one of the Katie Hobbs versus, you know, Carrie Lake of events, I would have come back and said, oh, man, republicans are just gonna sweep. I mean, the energy out here, the excitement, it is tremendous.

So how much of that was seeing the kind of thing that you you saw there, which turned out to be misleading, but which

sounds very powerful. Well, it was powerful. I mean, you had sort of a number of factors going on. First of all, you had history.

Mhmm. Second

of all, you had polls. Third of all, you had actual events on the ground. All three of those things, you know, seemed like the Republican party was on fire. So there was really nothing out there to dissuade you from that. Right?

You’re still looking for evidence to say, well, what’s contrary to the narrative? There wasn’t much evidence. But the reality was contrary to

that narrative. And so what what what can we learn from this? What what was going on? What what was everybody missing? I mean, how good Katie Hobbs have run such a shitty, boring campaign and one, how good Maggie Hasson have had these low energy things, and then then just blow mold it out.

Yeah. I think that what’s really encouraging

about this is that the fundamental messages is that the message matters. You know, it’s not just a highly gifted electric tell you know, television friendly candidate like Carrie

Lake,

who everybody thought was gonna be the second coming of Donald Trump. Or Ron Reagan or pick your favorite, you know, against a pretty sleepy candidate and Katie Hobbs. But the the thing that’s interesting to me continually, Charlie, about American politics, is that nothing happens until it does. You know? And everything we predict is based on past behavior and then something happens that’s never happened before.

We’ve elected a black president. We elected a real state billionaire for or a millionaire from New York and

nobody

you know, that had never happened before and couldn’t happen, and then it did happen.

And

I think one of the things that happened in this election, I mean, first of all, you had the Dobbs decision, I think, which was important in the sense that the conventionalism and the history was that a party, Alexa president, they have a couple of years in power and making decisions. And then in the midterms, voters wanna pull them back because they’ve overreached. Mhmm. In this election, that this was different because you had another branch of government, not the executive branch, but the judiciary branch overreaching in the mind of voters. So in this election, Rather than reacting to the executive branch in power, they were reacting to a different branch of government who they saw as Republicans being them in the majority, which they are.

On the court. And they reacted to that. So that, again, that’s just kind of an, you know, we’re hopefully, we’re a little bit of an art artificial intelligence machine. We we learn more each election, and hopefully the election we that was one of the lessons.

Well, Republicans in this election seem to think that this election that one of the models there was, you know, Trump’s celebrity, you know, let’s runs with celebrities. Let’s run with famous people. Let’s turn it into theater, the rallies, and and the rock is that this is what politics has become. Right? You know, let’s go with doctor Oz.

Let’s go with Hershel Walker. You know, let’s go with Let’s go with the Kerry Lakes and everything. And they were pretty confident that would work and it did not, as you point out, substance isn’t dead. American politics when I’m getting here. Yeah.

I think that’s a really key point. Substance voters said substance matters. And

you know, when I got tasked by George W. Bush to do the media first presidential campaign, I was really excited for about ten seconds and then just petrified because you know, I’d I’d it was just way beyond anything I’d ever done before and it was a huge responsibility and it

scared the hell out

of me at first. And so I went around and I kissed all the rings of any living person, you know, they’ve been part of the Reagan team or any of the other presidential teams that were still around and I went back into kind of study, went to all the libraries and studied the film back to the advent of television. And I studied kind of the evolutions of communications and presidential communications. And it was very interesting, and I used to do a whole hour long presentation about kind of the evolution of media in American politics and it goes through phases. Right?

You can see something works for a while and then the, you know, voters get used to it and then they kind of adapt and, you know, the campaigns do something different to try and appeal to voters. And, again, you just kinda see these different phases of communications that work for a while when they don’t because voters get used to it. And but the the most effective development is that, you know, voters sort of got used to the tricks. They sort of understand that we have this first amendment in America, and politicians can say anything, and it doesn’t have to be truthful. So we’re skeptical.

And so what happened over the admin in the last couple of decades is that increasingly there became a premium and power to just the fundamental notion of authenticity. In other words, oh, this this this is real. This person, there’s not some wizard of Oz, there’s not some curtain, there’s not some people who telling her what to say. And that was, you know, a big part of the appeal for George w Bush was that he was very authentic even if he just didn’t just agree with him. He’d sort of say, well, he’s a very, you know, he’s an authentic person.

And when I got tasked to do the the the video for the introduction at his at the convention. I did this film and we filmed this one part where he mangled what he was trying to say. And so I did it a couple more times till he got it right and then we went into edit the film and then we got to that point and we all laughed at it and took it out and put in the the perfect line and

And then I said,

wait a minute. Leave in this the screw up and and Carl Robin everybody. That what? What are you doing, Mackenzie? Are you crazy?

You were paying for this? You’re gonna put in a mistake. I again, why is it? Because it’s funny. It’s authentic.

It’s real. And we left it in, and and I think it worked because and by the way, I said, let’s just lower the bar of Innatex expectation that this guy’s gonna be the great great order. But that’s the lesson I think in Pennsylvania. That’s the thing that people say it’s gonna

have to do.

Yeah. Federman, I mean, what a lesson that is, this guy had a stroke for God’s sakes, had a very tough debate I was up there and conventional wisdom you say, there’s no way in hell this guy could win. But he was authentic. I mean, you don’t get any more perfectly Pennsylvania than this six foot eight guy in cargo shores who had a health problem and people could just relate to that against the guy who was this as you said, the celebrity guy and they just no matter the power of that celebrity, people said, you know what? I’m gonna go with a guy who I think is more like me.

Okay. So speaking of celebrities and speaking of candidate quality, there’s still one senate seat out there. We’re now turning our attention to to Georgia a lot of Republicans were hoping that you wouldn’t have this Republican civil war breaking out completely before the December sixth runoff election, but I don’t know whether you caught this this one little sound bite them. I’m not gonna be able to play the whole one — It’s like

a vampire sound bite.

I am yeah. I am still trying to figure out what goes on up in Hershel Walker’s Belfrey. So, yeah, let me just play this. This is The GOP’s finest Hershel Walker gives a campaign speech on,

on a

vampire movie he was watching.

Oh, do

you ever watch a stupid movie late at hope you’re gonna get better. Don’t get better, but keep watching it anyway. Because other night, the other night, I’m watching this movie. I’m watching this movie. I’m watching this movie.

It’s called fright night, freak night at some kind of night. But it was about vampires. I don’t know if you knew vampires and cool people or they not. But I’m gonna tell you something that I found out. Or what I want to kill a vampire?

Did you know that? Never knew that. So I don’t wanna be a vampire anymore. I wanna be a werewolf. But then, anyway, I don’t watch in this movie, and they can tell you how stupid it is.

Does it win in the morning? So on why to my TV of these kids watching that TV or a vampire killed on that TV. So you

know

it’s kinda stupid.

What I’m seeing watching, though, as I’m watching this show — Mhmm. What was funny, these kids had a vampire in their attic at their house. Okay. So

they were

watching their TV. Yeah. Now watching my TV. They in that TV or they see the vampire killer on that TV. So they win this contest.

They bring this actor. Now y’all gotta stay with me. Right. Bring this actor who’s

a vampire

killer. From that TV TV, it really is really realized vampire and they’re at it. So it just actually comes to their home. Yeah. Okay.

Okay.

I just can’t take anymore there. I just what the Alright, Ted. Sorry.

Here here’s what I would do. If I were a warnock campaign, I would just take all the money we have left, cut that into a sixty second ad and just run that for the rest of the game.

I mean, do you

remember the the other kind of famous similar sound bite that he did was about the the cow jumping the fence. Oh, yeah. Which I also didn’t

understand the point of that. Well well, exactly. I mean, first of

all, what metaphor are you are you trying to make here? And that was also right in the middle of all the the, you know, the the womanizing, you know, abortion allegations. So the last thing you wanna be talking about is, you know, cows, jets, and defense, and humping cows, and yet that’s what it shows to talk about. Well,

okay. So his inner circle is thinking, okay, this is crazy. This guy has no business running, but it’s authentic. So let’s put this in the Mark McKinnon authentic box over here, you know, evaluated. Is are voters looking at that going?

Okay. Yeah. But, you

know, That’s

who he

is. Yeah. I guess this could be the test case for authenticity. We had his limits. I mean, this might be when we somewhat bad

off badly. A little less

Yeah. Electhetically crazy.

Yeah. It’s

the interesting kind of dynamic and there’s I I just imagine trying to be, you know, an adviser in that campaign. Can you imagine what that’s like? Because, I mean, the one thing about Walker is he’s like he he is pretty clearly he doesn’t take a lot of direction. It kinda does what he wants to do, obviously. Okay.

So

this race is still

out there. What do you think is gonna happen? Because, I mean, there was one point where you could certainly understand the rational decision that Republicans made saying, okay, this guy’s nuts. He’s crazy, but he’s going to be a vote and you know, we have to support him if we wanna get the majority in the senate. Well, the majority is gone.

Yeah. That that rationalization for voting for this guy is gone. It’s still a Senate seat. So does all of this change the dynamics of what’s gonna happen in Georgia? Well, I think it does very much.

I mean, that was gonna be the compelling rationale for to juice up turnout

on the Republican side. And and and and and to your point, it’s like, okay, he’s not a great candidate, but he’s gonna he’s gonna affect the balance of power. Well, now he’s not a good candidate and he doesn’t affect the balance of power. So if I’m a Republican, why in the hell should I, you know, get off my ass and go vote? And you also have the the the complexity of Donald Trump now.

Right. They’re fighting that whole thing now. Does Trump, you know, come help? Does he not? And then they happen to deal with Donald Trump again?

So So it’s a it’s a bad stew and and, you know, he he may ultimately pull it off, but I mean, there’s obviously a lot of goodwill for just a Hershel Walker in general. Given his legacy, but I’d rather be the Democrat than Republican that race right now. Yeah. The morale boost

seems to have gone to the the democrats. So speaking of the senate, you know, yesterday Mitch McConnell survived a rather weak challenge to his leadership. And again, this is part of this Republican civil war that just broke out within a week of the of the midterm elections. And of all people, Rick Scott, said, no. Having been the guy that actually ran these senate campaigns, I’m going to run for leader.

He loses thirty seven to ten. You know, a lot of that has to do with the internal politics of the Senate caucus, but Donald Trump sitting down in Mar a Lago, the leader of the Republican Party, the presumptive nominee of the Republican Party, has been saying that he wanted Mitch McConnell’s head on a platter over and over and over again. He’s attacked him. He said he should be impeached whatever that means. He’s mocked

his wife

clearly among the Republicans in office that Donald Trump despises Mitch McConnell is at or near the top of that list. And the Republican caucus voted thirty seven to ten to reelect Mitch McConnell. I mean, at some level, aren’t the elected Republicans in the senate saying, fuck you Donald Trump? Oh, a hundred percent. I and and that’s the ongoing mystery

is that or conundrum really is that you know and you know a lot of these guys and I do too and you know that behind screen doors or in the caucus — Mhmm. — they know how problematic Trump was gonna be is going forward. And so they’re they’re making the long term bets on something they think is much more SABA, which is Mitch McConnell, and he’s got the proof in the history to show for him. So I I just think that dynamic

going forward is going to be extraordinary that Donald Trump We’ll we’ll have Kevin McCarthy on a very, very short leash, and Mitch McConnell owes him absolutely nothing. So how this

plays out? Well,

it’s going to

be a

circus mark. It is. No lack of material. Season eight, coming around you right around the corner. Alright, Mark McKinnon.

Thank you so much for joining me on the Bulwark podcast. You can see Showtime’s The Circus Inside the Greatest Political Show on Earth occasionally features our own Tim Miller market is always great talking with you. Kinkin’ hard carry on regardless. The bowler podcast is produced by Katie Cooper with audio production by Jonathan Seres. I’m Charlie Sykes.

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