He Gets You Hot In A Bad Way

Welcome to the next level. I’m j v l here with my best friends, Sarah Longwell and Tim Miller of The Bulwark. Hey, if you are new here, mash the subscribe button. Hit the like button. And then come over to the bulwark dot com where we do all sorts of great stuff every day.

We’ve got free newsletters from Charlie Sykes so many podcasts, new stories and articles every day without annoying ads, all for you. Tim and Sarah last night was fight night. Big big fights in Ohio and Utah. What did you think?

Did you watch either of them, Tim?

I watched them on Twitter dot com, and then I I became intrigued enough by the Utah debate that I went back and watched some of that on uninterrupted on Seaspan.

Did Evan do as well as it looked like he was doing from the clips?

This is a tough one for me to really answer in a unbiased way as an analyst because Nike is so smart Evan, I’ve never been like an Evan super fan. It’s not like I look at Evan and I think, man, that guy I’m just overwhelmed by his charisma. Nice guy. We agree on all this stuff for the most part, but I but, you know, he hasn’t been mister Charisma for me. But compared to Mike Lee, I mean, Evan McMullen comes off as just the most cuddly, likable fella that has ever ever been.

I mean, Mike Lee is, like, has Ted Kruslow? I didn’t realize this. I don’t know if I’ve ever watched uninterrupted Mike lead to that long on annoying topics. And and, boy, it’s Rob I mean, he’s like, like, it’s got a little weasel in there. He’s a tough Any any kind of, like, he’s like he’s like just jumping at Evan.

Like like Evan’s the cheese, and he’s the raft. And he was, like, kinda lumbering at him a few times. It was it was very unappealing. And so it was tough for me to get past him. So

I I was watching the clips he’s got, like, unbelievable al Gore energy where he’s just, like, circling — Crudehouse. — circles Evan and, like, getting in his, like like, he’s walking away from his podium toward evidence. Because remember there’s that famous George w Bush thing where he stops and the middle of the baby goes, Hey, Mike. And I can’t wait for Evan to do that because Mike Lee was one hundred percent in his personal space. Yeah.

So it’s hard to judge on that. And then audience and also the audience was very probably which like the opposite of most of these debates, you know, because it’s Utah where it’s been, like, on college campuses and, like, Ron Johnson is, you know, getting underwear thrown out. I mean, he’s getting food and hiss, and like so it’s like hard to judge it’s like the opposite of that on this. And so, you know, I I I hope that Lee had a couple of points that seemed to land in the room that that was that were hard, you know, for me to judge whether they really landed with normal people because I was just so repulsed by his his entire presentation.

Sarah, do do these debates matter? I mean, I I look at them and I think to myself like, okay, I understand that sometimes debates can matter. There are elections in which voters have unanswered questions about a candidate or they had a leaning one way, but they haven’t really made the sale. On the other hand, you’ve got, like, guy who was proposing alternate slates of electors and trying to help a coup. Guy who was against the coup, and, like, that’s just what they are.

Pick you like the coup or you don’t like the coup. And I can’t imagine people being moved one way or another by a debate on this. Wrong? Well,

I’m not sure that’s the binary. Along, which people are voting. I wish it was, but I don’t think it is. Let me tell you let me tell you an interesting thing about the debates. So in I just did an Arizona focus group not gonna give you guys too much because I keep getting yelled at by my production staff for giving away too much on this show about the Focus Group show.

That’s what you call peaking people’s interests. I know. Well, they think I give away, like, the money the money stuff. So I’m

not gonna say she almost said money shot. Wow. I

didn’t. I just said, wow. Give

us the money shot, sir. What was the money shot from Arizona?

No. No. I’m not giving I’m not giving you that. I’m giving you an interest peaking tidbit, which is this. So a bunch of the people there’s a couple of guys in the group.

They were swing voters. So, you know and and they were actually they were an group in that they so they were Trump sixteen, not Trump twenty twenty. So some Biden, some went third party or refused to vote. And so a couple of the

write ins.

Yeah. So a couple of the, like, third party writing guys were gonna go late. But one of the guys who was gonna go lake was also gonna go Kelly, so he’s a late Kelly voter. And his reason that he would not vote for Katie Hobbs because she refused to debate. And everybody talked about this about how annoyed they were that Katie Hobbs wouldn’t debate.

This was like a big frustration and it was not good and you a debate because people

deserve. That’s a really good reason to vote for the woman who wants to lie.

Just hold on. Just hold on. So this is why they’re very frustrated, Katie, how’s over this? I understand this. That frustration.

But then when the moderator asked, like, haven’t if you watched the Senate debate, like, nobody had. You know? It was just, like, know, it’s a couple of people, like, guys, awesome of it. You know, like and so does the the idea of, like, does the debate matter? Like, this was my thing.

I argued this. I think, last week where I was saying that Ryan and his Ohio debate last time kinda won the the second day. Right? Because the thing that was the breakout clip, even though the performances were kind of, like, middling on both sides, the breakout clip was him calling JD Vance. Like, that Trump called him and asked his or, and, like, that’s what went viral.

So I do think that there are when there are breakout moments and I I I can never tell because we’re in our own, like, never drum silos. So, like, we have a lot of McMullen kind of that’s our Uber. I’m McMullen UBre. And so Well, you know, there was a lot of clips of, you know. We don’t

think the average person in provost, Twitter fee and Facebook fee is the same as yours when it comes McMillan County Listen.

Listen. Let’s listen to that. Sebastian,

can you throw us the the McMillan clip? They trusted you. We trusted you. And with that trust and with your knowledge of the constitution, senator Lee, you sought to find a weakness in our system. You advised the White House find an alternative slate of electors for Trump to overturn the will of the people.

That’s what you said. You said that that the president should listen to legal quack Sydney Powell. Please make time for her. Let her in. You told the White House chief of staff.

You told the president that you were working over time. Fourteen hours a day, I think you said, to unravel this for him, to keep a president who had been voted out of office according to the will of the people in power despite the will of the people. Similarly, it is a betrayal of the American Republic You were there to stand up for our converse for our constitution. But when the barbarians were at the gate, you were happy to let them in. He had

that that was in his pocket. I thought that was I thought that was strong. That was

the last unctuous candidate on the stage last night. Just a little factoid. It was an interesting debate in that regard. But, yeah, I mean, he he landed. That’s sort of the longer clip that I think where, you know, the yourselves a little bit prepared.

But he landed some other jabs on that regard. Right? Like, he kept he kept driving, and he kept coming back to it, you know, in ways or a little bit more pithy in other areas. And so, I guess, I would say I I generally do not think that debates outside of the presidential level matter at all. I I’m almost even borderline on whether Sarah’s point about whether the day two things matter at all, unless, you know, it’s something that’s so bad that it goes into advertising.

I do wonder though you know, Utah is a little bit of a different animal. Right? And like, you know, the types of the electorate It is a hyper engaged electorate. It’s two kind of Mormon candidates. It’s a state that zagged off of Trump not Trump won the state both times, but kind of in very outside the the normal margin numbers.

Right? It was like, you know, an additional standard deviation over of Republican voters who went against Trump, you know, even though it wasn’t enough to to stop him from winning, And so I I do think that there were probably some of them that were sizing them up, right, and trying to get their number. Now it’s harder for me to think about how they read that. Right? Because I have such TDS and Mike LeeDS, right, that it’s like, I I just don’t know that I can LDS again, I had nailed this.

I I just came up with that on slide. Yeah. And so I like that, I think, is the open open question. I do I want to say this, though. It feels much more competitive and much more like a real thing and that Evan got it to this point, I think is credit worthy.

And I think that if there have been a times even on this podcast, I’ve sort of diminished, like, whether I thought this was a realistic campaign. It feels real I Mike Lee’s behavior. Is enough to make you sense that it’s realistic. Like, might be Lee is not acting like he called Evan a gas fly last night, but he’s not treating Evan like a gas fly. There’s something to be said to that.

So

that is exactly right. And this thing where he’s, like, he’s pissed off that Romney’s not endorsing him and, like, close like, cinching this thing for him, which is preposterous. Like, an a b standard has a terrific piece today in the Bulwark. Everybody should go read it about how Mike Lee, like, hasn’t endorsed other people and him, you know, and how ridiculous his begging for Rodney’s endorsement is, but he he he wants it and he went on weirdly, like, went on Tucker to ask for it. Like, what meant rounded Hannity.

I

think it

was No. It was Tucker. It was Tucker. What

a weird place to ask for these these are the people who I’ve been calling Robin a Cook for the last.

Why not go to NewsMax?

But he’s doing that because he’s nervous. I mean, then there have been really reputable polls in the state that have it neck and neck. And so look, there was a polling miss for Evan in Utah in sixteen. And so, you know, So

our colleague Amanda Carpenter is working on a piece for us right now. And her her theory here is that McMullen candidacy is really road testing. Whether or not there is a center right alternative to MEGA? Because this is not asking people to cross lines and vote for a Democrat. The Democrats have sat this one out.

The Democrats are all gonna show up to vote for a guy who is not gonna caucus with the Democratic Party. Right? McMullen has said he won’t caucus with either side. And so McMullen is presenting a pretty pure like, hey, I am a center right Republican who just isn’t in on the manga stuff. And if the Utah voters, which again, Utah is not Alabama, like it’s a very red state, but it’s red in a different way than Alabama is, if do you tell voters look at this and say, uh-uh, we we want the manga stuff.

What does that say? So

I don’t want I’m interested to read him in his article. I don’t wanna use this as a test case, like, if it doesn’t work for Evan, it can’t work. I I think that there are unique things happening. Hey, Mike

Lee, it can’t work, but it’s a data point. Right?

Yeah. It is a data point. But Mike Lee is not, you know, like Hersha Walker. Okay? Or even Blake Bass.

Right? Like, Mike Lee, as oily as I find him, right, is a little bit more acceptable than maybe you could imagine this in a different scenario where the Republican is is grosser. And Evan, God love him. You know, his language, if you’re watching the debate, like to me, he kind of comes off sounding like us. Which is fine with me.

I that’s great. I like it. You know, I like people that sound like me. But what I don’t like as much is, you know, or as this is a test case is, I wish he sounded a little bit more menier than me. Right?

Like, I wish he sounded a little bit more and just as a as a political science I I want him to be himself. Right? But as a political science case, I think that that if he was of adamant anti abortion advocate, right, who is like cheerleading the overturned of Roe and and who kind of sounded more natural critiquing Biden. Over inflation. You know what I mean?

Like, all this stuff this isn’t Evan. Right? So I’m not suggesting you should do that. But I think that would have been a more interesting sort of test case of what you’re taught about, like, a political science test case of, could this work? Could a non magna conservative win?

And I think that that type of person would have had a better chance to win even if that would have appealed to me a little less as far as my politics. I

have another reason why I don’t love this as a test case. Right. Which is like Evan did something in Utah, like, that is un unable to be replicated in very many places, which is that he got their Democratic party to stand down. And if you’re gonna get the Democratic party to stand out, it means you have to be in a place where the Democrats absolutely cannot win. Right?

Where there’s basically they don’t wanna put anybody up. That doesn’t mean there aren’t some other places like that. There are, but as a national proposition or and again, I do think Utah has a different like, I’m not sure can you do the center right alternative in, like, take Alabama? What did we get in Alabama? We got Katy Brick.

Right? And Katie Britt was sort of the center right alternative to the Mo Brooks crazy thing, but she was still plenty back. Right? She still ran on, build the wall. And so it’s just I don’t know how much I treat it as a test case.

Yeah.

I don’t know. Before we leave Utah, I will say this. And once I say, you’ll never be able to see it. You know who Evan looks like? You know the meme with, you know, the worst person you know has just said something that’s right.

Yeah.

The onion thing.

That that guy. Evan looks like that that I

don’t think so. I don’t know.

No. In person. I just got it.

Got it. And Evan is much handsomeer than that person. I

think Evan Evan is handsome and I thought That

guy in the onion story is perfectly handsome too, Timothy. I

don’t I don’t think so.

I thought Evan did well last night. I think Evan is well spoken. I I agree with you that he’s he sounds a little bit like us. He talks about democracy a lot. And I think that as much as it pains me to say it, there’s a New York Times piece today.

The opshot is like, yes, people think democracies in peril, but they do not care about It’s like they do not want to save it. It’s like about right. I think that analysis is correct. I really think you should we can’t overstate how much credit you should get. For making this race real and and having it be close.

And this is where this is where I sort of disagree with with, I guess, JBL’s trial today or I find it too bleak. Because while the numbers well, I guess, like, the generic ballot in some of these numbers, we’ve seen popping up in, like, the New York Times poll that I think has people a little, you know, perplexed, seemed to be moving in the Republicans direction. You know, there’s a bunch of races that are close that should not be close. And the other one so Evans is one of them. And then the other is in Ohio, where I am just like watching Tim Ryan who was that was the other debate that was going on last night.

So I watched more of that debate. Of

course, you did.

I love Tim Ryan. I think Tim Ryan is running an excellent campaign. Do you

have a t shirt yet? Do you have a t shirt? No.

But I hate J. D. Vance so much. I like Ryan very much. I think he I think he is running.

The kind of campaign that actually, if Evan was doing a little more, because he’s out there being, like, I’ll vote with Trump. Like, I don’t I don’t know. I don’t even know a party. And he’s he’s taken on democrats and he’s running as an independent guy, and I thought he was excellent last night. And I cannot believe that the Democrats are not helping him right now.

Like, I can’t believe there is no outside money for him. I think it’s gonna be tough for Tim Ryan to win this race. But if he loses by three points, I think that the democrats should should be kicking themselves. Yeah. Rich,

guys. I just as a general thing, the over the summer, the Democrats were well funded going in as far as, you know, the broad based kind of campaign type of funding. Right? They’re raising more money than the Republican counterparts. K?

Republicans have now closed that gap and are now spending more money in large part because some Peter Teal types are right in big honking checks. Okay? And and I don’t know why that’s not hap like, that’s where the gap needs to be filled in some of these things. And there I’m sure know that there are plenty of demographic rich guys that are writing checks, but, like, Mike Bloomberg or Mike Bloomberg filled this gap. One side.

In Clark. Where’s he? He’s go yeah. He’s gone yeah. The no.

Twice. I yeah. I was in Florida in twenty twenty and then in in in the midterm in in eighteen. It doesn’t feel like the urgency going back to J. V.

L. Stryad today about how we’re kind of sleep walking into disaster. Like, it it feels like that a little bit. On on the money side of things. And the Ohio thing is one example that I don’t I don’t wanna you know, there there are plenty of people who are who are paving.

I don’t wanna down talk anyone that is putting money in. But I just think that, like, you would think if it was really the case that we’re at, you know, locking into a a democratic catastrophe. You would think that one of these billionaires would be like, okay, I can put in fifty million.

Or or the parties the parties to say, hey, like, go here. Like, this is close because

this is what the Republicans are doing. The Republicans are going to their

big money donors, and they’re like, no, guys. Blake masters can win. Even though he’s down

— Right. —

anywhere from like

five to seven points in

every bowl to Kelly. But they’re like, no, we’re gonna data from Massachusetts like the only place they’ve basically pulled out is dog Mastriano. Everywhere else they are fighting, RGA is in there, heritage is in there, like outside groups, whatever, and they’re covering all these races. They they Vance, they gave Vance thirty million dollars in in Ohio, then he should have walked in. They should have been pissed about putting that money in, but they still showed up for him.

The idea that Ryan’s running this incredible race has it this close where he his neck and neck in a place where Trump won by eight points, and he’s running against a super lazy candidate who has high negatives like go in there, everybody. Like, I understand money is finite, but it’s not like so finite you can’t fight for a seat. I don’t think things are as bleak as JBL sort of outline them to be. And part of that is because some of these places are close. What I find bleak or disappointing is that there’s not more of, like, an urgency offense thing because for people who are really worried about democracy were or worried about Trump in twenty twenty four, that all runs through twenty two.

Right? Like, everybody who is elected in twenty two is going to certify or more importantly not certify future elections. And so, like, this really matters. Hundred percent.

Let me let me just give you just a ninety second why I am concerned. You and I started talking about this earlier, Sarah. So when you look around the numbers over the last week or two, what you have seen is Republicans all of a sudden pulling a little bit better. Not a lot of point or two. We’ve seen this with Oz in Pennsylvania.

We’ve seen it with Vance in Ohio. We’ve seen it with Lee in Utah with Walker in Georgia. We’ve seen it now on the generic ballot. It’s not a lot. It’s just like a point or two.

What makes me nervous is that there’s no obvious proximate cause for why things should be turning around. There was not a bad jobs report. There was not a war. We did not have a the huge spike in gas prices. Yes,

we are. Yes, we did. We are having a huge spike

in gas prices are No. We’re having a small spike in gas prices, which are still down a full dollar from where they were whenever everybody’s freaking out about gas prices. Right. And I this looks to me like just political graphics. Clearly Shannon does the budget in your in your household.

This is my

deepest argument with Rafael. My deepest argument with him. We we had

five dollar gasoline. Everybody was tearing their hair out of five dollar gasoline five dollar gasoline. And, you know, and now we’re back at, like, three fifty. And we’re like, oh, but it’s still more than two. It is not

three fifty in New Jersey. It is not. Refused to believe But I

bought gas this morning. I bought gas this morning. I just

drove I just drove to Pennsylvania’s four bucks there. But

again, the point is we are still twenty five percent lower than when everybody was freaking out. So whatever correction there has been over the last two weeks, that does not explain why universally numbers are shifting towards Republicans. And I think that what’s going on is that there’s something in the water or it’s political gravity. And that’s why I think a lot of these races are gonna be like Tim Ryan ran an amazing campaign and over performed and lost by a point. You know?

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Yeah. We just had a little, you know, laundry session midday. So after afternoon. I’m walking up. I’m I’m often typing writing, you know, my litter box articles from my bed, and so I’m writing it from the bamboo sheets, and then Tyler goes to bed before me.

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anyone. He’s turning the bamboo sheets into ghosts. For our Halloween party. He’s like, I’m fucking done with them or gonna buy another another Bolen branch sheet. So that is a that is Tyler’s full endorsement.

And he has much more sensitive skin than I do. So I think it’s a good

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three different bamboo tie three different types of the bamboo that we we wrote through. That’s a good follow-up,

though. That’s a good follow-up. I think it’s funny that that all of a sudden, you’ve just you had all sheets of the same fabric, and it turns out you hate that

fabric. And who always didn’t know any better? And they were better than the target sheets we’ve been on before. It’s just a slow progression as as, you know, we age and and, you know, get more wine. Are

you the bed maker Tim or his Tyler’s about shipping. Are you

kidding me? I don’t know. Am I the

bedmaker? I’m the bedmaker. I have

not ever made a bed in my life. And when when I go to when I stay at friend’s house, it’s horrible. I I now my new thing is I now strip all of the sheets and and ask if I can put it in their laundry them because I I cannot make the bed in a way that doesn’t look like a seven year old child and it’s so embarrassing. Listen.

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entity. So

listen, the Republicans, you know, a lot of people complain. The Republicans don’t have anything that they’re really campaigning on. They’re just saying, defund the police, crime, inflation, but they don’t have any policies. And on Tuesday, Kevin McCarthy sat down with the good people at punch bowl news and describe what his promises to the American people are. He promises that he’s gonna have a giant showdown over raising the debt ceiling that he is going to work to cut off aid to Ukraine.

It’s a little

of —

Right. — through the dreamers.

It’s a little of stated. I mean, is that he said, I think I think what he said is it will be much harder to get a check for Ukraine. He

said that I’ll tell you what you’re trying. He said, there will not be a blank check for Ukraine is what he said. Mhmm.

Okay. Mhmm. Is there a blank check now? Is that how it is? Is it just blank?

Yeah. This to me, this is it. This is

Because I feel like I have heard over and over and over for the last six months. Why aren’t we doing more? Why aren’t we giving them thirty fives and all the right. This is some

some Not from them.

Some on the right. From some on the right. Yeah. No worries. It has been both two week Right?

And not willing to give them enough resources, but also wasting money when we have a when we have a leaky border. The speaker of the border, the other thing I because I cut you off JBL before then, sir, you can just channel on this, but the DACA thing I thought was also getting less attention. But it’s just like DACA is not even on the table. Right? Like, for for years, this was, like, seemed like the easiest And literally, it’s been decades now.

We’ve been talking about how this is the deal. We’re gonna deal with Dreamers or public even Republicans. Like, want you know, don’t wanna deport Dreamers. This was asked at the Utah Senate debate last night, Mike. Lee and Evan was one of their disagreements where Evan was like, Michael, you wanted to port dreamers.

And Michael, he kind of, like, talks around it. But McCarthy was very clear. No dreamer. Deal is even on the table. You know, all we all we will do is fund mister Trump’s

wall. And God

bless the punch bowl people because they pushed back and they said, you know, representative McCarthy, you didn’t seem to have a problem with any of the debt ceiling stuff over the course of the Trump presidency. He raised it three times even though he blew up the death hit, like, you know, by seven trillion dollars or whatever it

was. And

then Carter’s answer was, yeah. Well, but the the Biden spending is just too much. And I guess that’s okay with people. Yeah.

So this is this is an interesting point. Right? So right now, there’s a debate going on among Democrats Carval came out sort of forcefully and said that, you know, you can’t just argue abortion. You guys have got to talk about some other things that cannot be your only argument. It can’t be your closing argument.

And I’ve been a little bit like, okay. But if if the argument is, like, about the economy, like, what do Democrats argue? Like, what what is the response there? Because that’s a that’s tough terrain for them. And I guess that my recommendation would be but tell me what you think of this.

Is to really go on offense about the fact that, like, Republicans have no plan. Like, the idea that they have a plan to reduce inflation They don’t. Like, they could say, like, what is your plan? Tell us how you plan to reduce inflation. I guess that’s the alternative.

To me, when I heard these different points, it’s like, okay, so they’re gonna they’re gonna play chicken with the national debt again. And listen, I’m a debt deficit hawk. I think it’s I think it’s unbelievable. But both parties do do it. And then on immigration, they’re basically like we’re not gonna have to find a solution because they’re they’re saying there’s no negotiation to be had.

They’re not even gonna negotiate on us. There’s just a non starter. And then the great thing is basically a signaling comment to sort of appease the Putin loving wing of their party, plus the sort of America first isolationists who don’t like the idea that we’re sending money out of the United States. Right? And so It’s also a signal to Putin though, Sarah.

It’s a

signal saying just hang on. We will cut the funding to these these guys who are kicking your ass if you can just hang on a little bit longer. Right? This is we have an actual enemy. I don’t know if

I’d go that far. Well, I

would. I

think it’s bad that they are signaling that we will do anything short of standing behind Ukraine unequivocally. I think that’s bad. But, like, I also think just saying like there won’t be a blank check is not. We will do no longer do anything. Those are different statements.

I also this. I don’t

like Kevin’s quote. I land more on the JBL side this, and Sarah, I don’t know if it’s like a direct intentional signal to Putin, but I don’t I don’t I also don’t think it’s not something that Putin can’t read into. Right? And I think there’s something that he already believed, Rich was, I might as well hang on. Let’s let’s see what happens when the Republicans are in charge.

They might do something differently. But I don’t think that Kevin realizes, you know, the this how risky this this plank is that he’s walking. And and I don’t know that it’ll happen on the first vote. I don’t know if it’ll be the Ukraine first vote, but at some point, he’s gonna get into the boehner situation where, like, he doesn’t have enough votes in his own on his own caucus to fund stuff like this. And that that could happen at the debt limit.

It could happen on the second Ukraine funding initiative. It could happen on something else. When an emergency happens. And then it then it’s like, okay. Well, what do you do?

Do I go and fund the the second Ukraine bill next summer with a third of my caucus and all the dumps. Do I do that? And then am I still speaker after that? And he’s like walking himself into just this trap where he kind of can’t do some of these emergency funding mechanisms with these quotes and basically admitting once again that he’s going to be completely beholden to the America first freak in

his caucus. I mean, I think he knows exactly what he’ll do, which is he’ll do whatever he has to to stay in control. Right? I mean, this is right, which might be not funding you, correct? Yeah.

No. It’s exactly right. Yeah. He has no principal. Believe me.

Kevin McCarthy is not gonna lose his job. Over, you know, getting high Mars artillery to the Ukrainians. Right? And this guy has no ideological commitments. He has no sense of responsibility about things that happen in the real world with real people.

He

just wants to

go get his golden gavel. Yeah. All

the guys that I know, just to be clear, I think he’s signaling, right, that they will not do as much for Ukraine. Like, I think it’s bad. I just he was not explicitly saying that they, like, wouldn’t do it. Like, he was going out of his way to say, it’s not a blank check, which is more a way of trying to define the democrats as blank checkgivers — Sure. — which again is like living in the upside down where Democrats are the ones who are defending democracy abroad and standing with our allies and Republicans are talking about basically doing anything about that.

It’s amazing. But can you

can we go

back to the question that I had though, what a Democrat’s closing argument be if it’s not abortion? Like, what do they do to take on Republicans if the economy as everybody says it is, including in my focus groups, is the number one issue. They

should campaign on, you know, we have a machine that’ll let you turn your dirty laundry into golden eggs or something because voters will fucking believe anything. This is, you know, yeah, Hershel Walker flashing his badge at his debate. Now everyone just goes, You have Jamie Vance saying, I never said that Alex Jones was reputable. Everyone goes, you just lie, you just say whatever you want to voters and they just Let’s just oh, okay. I

have an alternate view. I don’t know that that’s quite true. I found that. I do think that I don’t think that the machine that turns dirty laundry into golden eggs a message is gonna work. I don’t think that’ll Why wouldn’t it?

Well, I think I do I think that the swing voting type of voter that we’re trying to get, I I don’t think that is gonna land with them.

They’re so smart that they’ll suss it

out. I I think so. Yeah. I do think that they’ll suss it out. I will say this, there’s certain democratic campaigns I’m frustrated with.

And, you know, not the Timurian ones, but but some of the others, you know, you’re you’re discussing the Arizona Focus Group. I think that this is true of Mandela a little bit despite the fact that he’s you know, I haven’t been as down on him as Charlie. I think that you can make a series of attacks against the republican candidates about their extremism and their lack of responsibility that ties to the economic stuff. Right? Like, these guys are going, you know, want to crash the economy.

Like, they have no plan to actually fix the economy. They haven’t said that they’re trying to fix the economy. They want to fix the next election for Donald Trump. Like, they’ve offered no details on what they wanna do. They’re all obsessed with, like, conspiracies about something that happened three years ago.

They all are extremist when it comes to abortion. They don’t want a fifteen year old girl to be who’s raped by someone to get an abortion. I you can tie all that stuff together and prosecute a case and it’s different in different races for what the specifics are. And some of these guys are doing that already. That’s offensive economic message that you can have.

Getting into the, oh, unemployment is low, and inflation is a global problem and all that. Know, I don’t I don’t see how any of that’s gonna work. And I don’t think that’s what Carville’s suggesting anyway.

But this is my point. Right? So I’ve I’ve always this has always been the thing is, you do the extremism, you make the extremism case, and you you bundle things. Like, it’s not just abortion. Right?

You layer things in. But to me, these McCarthy quotes, this is my ultimate point. These McCarthy quotes can be a gift if Democrats wanna use them. Like, what do they wanna do? They’re gonna go play chicken with the national debt and they’re gonna crash the economy.

They don’t even want to negotiate on immigration. They just want to complain about the border, but they’ve literally said they’re not gonna work on a deal. Like, why not? Like, why isn’t that the closing offense strategy? I wanna tell you the

Rick Scott thing. They wanna you know what I mean? Yeah. I wanna cut

Social Security. Right? This is, you know yeah. I oh, gosh. Well, so

why is

that not the the answer to your question of why is that not the closing message is because I think that like, democrats are are are struggling to, you know, get their footing on how to, you know, lump the economic stuff in with the abortion and the anti democracy stuff. And so, you know, I don’t they don’t seem like they’re on on very compelling turf. It’s harder to explain. And I think that’s why you’re seeing a little bit of mixed messaging on it coming from Democrats. So so

Paul Ryan thinks that we are all just a bunch of nennies for being concerned with the future democracy because he went in a short America that Donald Trump was not going to be the presidential nominee in twenty twenty four of the Republican Party. Can we have the audio, please?

I think Trump’s unelectability will be palpable by then. We all know that he will lose or he’s let me put it this way. We all know that he’s so much more likely to lose the White House than anybody else running for president on our side of the aisle. So why would we wanna go with that? So the only reason he stays where he is because everybody’s afraid of him.

They’re afraid of him, you know, going after them, hurting their own ambition, But as soon as you get sort of the herd mentality going, it’s it’s unstoppable. So I think I think the fact that he pulls so much poor than anybody else running for president as a Republican against the Democrat is is enough right there. He’s gonna know this. And so whether he runs or not, I don’t really know if it matters. He’s

not gonna

be the nominee. I don’t

think. Sarah,

what’s the little voice in your head

saying? I mean, what I appreciate

about

Paul Ryan is Well, come on. Give me

the this fucking guy. Give me your give me your voice. Oh, yeah.

Yeah. Like, the what I appreciate about Paul Ryan is that he’s allowing himself to be publicly disillusioned — Mhmm. — after, like, what is he he’s condemning the inability to stand up sternly to Trump and say it in his collective illusion. It’s funny. What did Paul Ryan do?

It’s just this herd When did it happen?

Remember what Paul Ryan

did. When when when the going got tough. What did he do? Did he did he do a lot of speeches? Did he Did he get

loud and fucking The demand

of donors to stop with this guy? Did he that’s not what he did. I believe he wrote in Edmund Burke on his ballot. He wrote it He resigned his position and he joined the board of Fox. You

see, wouldn’t you rather have Paul there? In those board meetings than some other crazy maga head because he’s the one who’s the voice of sanity at the table there. And if a word for him, Who knows what they might have on Fox in prime time? Those Fox board meetings, so I’m sure if we got

the minutes. I’m sure if we got the minutes board meeting, he’s really been holding the line. How how just before

you get that,

how can somebody be so wrong for seven years? And continue to be this wrong. And it’s like if you had a closet in your house, right? And every time you open the door to the closet, a bucket fell on your head, And I and for seven years, it kept in the bucket, kept falling on your head, and seven years later, you’re still opening the closet door and getting hit with the bucket. If you would be like, how fucking stupid are you?

Okay. How fucking stupid is Paul Ryan? He’s been saying the same shit since twenty fifteen. Think about all the things

that have

happened. It’s nearly a decade. I didn’t even have a child the last time, but when Paul Ryan was still contributing to this wrong line. Maybe he’ll be right again. At some point, I don’t know, two thousand and thirty.

If we avoid autocracy, maybe in two thousand and thirty eight, Paul Ryan will be right again, but he sure should not right now. Like like, everything that he continues to say continues to be wrong, and every time he’s just like, everybody just calm down, you know, it’ll come back around. Alright? It’s gonna It’s not coming back around. Also, just

as a factual matter. Just as a factual matter. He’s wrong. He’s absolutely wrong. There is there there may be a couple people who would be stronger Republican candidates in twenty twenty four, but but Donald Trump will be a perfectly viable candidate.

There there absolutely Donald Trump could win. And so, like, think of one candidate that would be certainly weaker than Donald Trump actually in a general election. Paul Ryan.

Yeah. Paul Ryan. This is certainly weaker. Would we do it certainly worse than Paul and Donald Trump? This is what

all of these people do, and it gets me so hot. In

a bad way. They

hate Donald

Trump, but

the only permission structure they have to criticize Trump is that Trump is bad for Republican victory. That’s everything else, they’re agnostic on. You know, I don’t want to get into the who’s and where to fours. You know, it’s like Mike Lee saying, you know, someday I would like to hear what Donald Trump himself has to say about January sixth. Open your fucking ears, Mike, you won’t shut off about it.

All he does is talk about what he thinks about January six. This is Paul Ryan too. Paul Ryan is like, you know, I don’t know about all this other stuff. But what I do know is this, Donald Trump is bad for Republican victory. It’s like, you know, what what is wrong?

What is so broken in you? That you are so

addicted to

teen politics? That you can’t conceive of something worse about a person, then that they might be bad for your party. That that is the thing what you look at and say, oh, Nope. Can’t get on board

with that. Might be bad for the party. It’s what all of them do. You wanna go for Paul Ryan’s top three, his top three candidates? Yeah.

So

did you look it up? Oh, yeah. Do you know who they are? One is Glenn Youngkin, who’s the Youngkin is number two. Ron is

number one. Paul isn’t even fighting the fight anymore. Paul isn’t Paul is not even fighting the fight anymore. He’s number one candidate is just Trump it’s like mini Trump with his build to wall Legos. Okay?

Number two was Glenn Youngkin. Number three. Number three, you guys know this. Don’t you? Tim Scott.

Tim

Scott. Oh, yeah. Tim Scott who who remember that interview where he was asked about, you know, who who won the election and his response was? This is, like, in December of twenty twenty. But I don’t even I don’t wanna get dragged into that.

You don’t have to go ask Donald President who won the election. Mister Courage, Tim Scott.

What what place would Tim Scott finish in South Carolina, Sarah? I would like your take after being in some primaries. Let’s say that there’s a primary Again, it’s Donald

Trump. Ron.

It has Donald Trump. It has Ron DeSantis, Candice Owens, Nikki Haley, and Tim Scott. What what place do you think Tim Scott would finish in his own home space? Campus

though. It’s behind you. It would be a tough — Right. — it would be a really tough sell to see whether Nicky Haley or Tim Scott got four. Yeah.

I’ve got four. I’d be a I’d be a tough. I don’t know. I

Terry in there. Here’s

the thing. It’s like, and this was this is why I wrote this piece about goodbye to the good Republicans. Like, they’re

willful And

I I love Paul. Ryan. I used to love Paul Ryan. Like, now I don’t know what to do with Paul Ryan, but, like, I always liked Paul Ryan. And I love when swing voters sort of act like Paul Ryan might come back and save them.

You know? They’re like, remember Paul Ryan? He’s great. Do you think he’ll run again? No.

Ryan’s gone. The party ran about on a rail. He’s over. And so, like, his He

still loves his party.

Yeah. The party has

no use for him, but he loves his party. And this

is where Rhonda Santos is actually only a fusion candidate in the sense that people like Paul Ryan are able to fuse their delusions together about, like, Yeah. He’s like a normal he’s a normal guy. He’s a normal Republican. Paul Ryan can’t possibly think that shipping migrants on a plane to Martha’s Vineyard or suing, you know, trying to to use political pressure against the biggest employer in your state or you know, having a press secretary that shouts groomer at anyone that disagrees with her boss on the Internet. He can’t think that that is becoming of the president.

Like, you can’t think that’s the right thing, the right move. If anybody out there listening

knows Paul and his friends with him and couldn’t reach out, I would do. We could pull together the money. There is nothing that I would enjoy more than just me and Paul going on a trip to a Mago rally or a Cary Lake rally. And just kind of pozying through the crowd. I just need Paul to get out of his little bubble, you know, get out of the board meetings at Fox.

Stop going to meet with Paul Singer. And just like, let’s come out and just hang out with the people. Do you think Paul Ryan could even get out of a mega rally? Like, if we just like air dropped him into the middle of an event. Like, would he could he safely make it back to his car?

I don’t I don’t think that Paul Ryan would think that he could safely get back to his car. No way. And so

and, yeah,

the same people he thinks are gonna use logical logic to determine that Donald Trump is not the best candidate to win the Republican primary. Like, the the same people that you would I assume he’d be scared of. I think it’s safe to say he’d be scared them. Right? Would Paul Ryan go to a Magnolia without security?

I can’t imagine you what. Absolutely not. I can’t imagine

you not. And this is this is why the Mike Pence idea of running for president to me is so historic really funny. Like, not only is he in the sour spot with photos, but, like, I’m like, dude, the base leak wanted to murder you. Like, their chance were about killing you and the president that they love thought that was cool. Like, what makes you think this party wants you?

But this is this is

what it is, like, all through the Republican Party. Right? Who was that guy in in Georgia, Tim, who was like, yeah, those people out there wanna kill me? Right? Oh,

yeah, Jeff Duncan. Wasn’t

good guy. Jeff Duncan. Right? Jeff Duncan is like, oh, boy, my voters out there wanna kill me, but I’m gonna go and ask them to vote for me. You know?

Like, this is you This is the sharks in the jets. Do you remember we had this this this discussion, Sarah? It’s like, you know, you’re with you’re we have a sharks in the jets and one you’re a shark. And, you know, and and well, when you’re a jet when you’re a jet, you’re the best you can get. And one when you’re

a jet, you’re a jet all the way. First cigarette to your last dying day. In

one day, the jets just decide they’re gonna curb stomp you, and they just start kicking you, and it’s like, I’m going after you. And the the sharks on the other side of the parking lot, they were looking. They’re like, Man, that shit’s nasty. What what are they doing to that guy? And you you claw your way up from getting away from the stomp out.

And instead of going over the sharks, you’re like, hey, guys. No. I’m gonna stay here. You you wanna keep kicking me, that’s cool. I’m a jet all the way.

What is

this? What is wrong with these people? Tribalism is a hell of a drug. Marginal

tax rates.

Marginal

tax rates. Alright.

I don’t wanna

belabor this, but that Brondesantus

is the safe space for Paul Ryan. But they’re all

safe. You know what? If Carrie Lake is the nominee, Paul Ryan will vote for her. I don’t think that

the again, though, to the losing the literal term of a safe space, don’t believe that to be true. Like, I think that that Ryan DeSantis could have a fundraiser for Paul Ryan at at at Paul Singer’s Law. Yes. And that would be a safe space for Paul Ryan. But I think if you they went down to the Panhandle and Rhonda Santos and Cary Lake had a rally together, I I don’t think that Colorado goes out.

Political, please. Like,

this is how I say it to you. No. I yes. Yeah. Alright.

Good show.

Well, it’s a show. Thanks again to We didn’t get to you didn’t get to a mama.

Yeah. We got a bunch of other stuff. We got

other stuff. Do we

need to hit that stuff? I feel like we’ve really I got spun up very hard. I don’t wanna do anymore. We didn’t get make it to to

oh, to anti woke Obama. We don’t need to. I just spent I just like I gotta go to a

peaceful warrior. I can’t. I’m too ramped up. I like to tell I

like to tell people what could have been, you know, what they could have had. You know, we could have had some rifts on anti woke Obama. And, you know, maybe the people in the comments like that. We could have done some anti Semitism stuff. We could have talked about Kanye, but they didn’t get that.

Get someone to come back next week. I do get to see Sarah tomorrow though. I’m very excited about it. I’m on a red eye. So I’m gonna be very flustered by the time I get there.

We’ll see if I get any sleep on a red eye going straight in. And then for people listening on Wednesday, I will be if you didn’t get a ticket, because the Bulwark live event on Thursday night. So that’s

like two and a half days. Oh, wow. Like, before we even announced the special guest Michael Fanone. Yeah.

We had the secretly the bullet in the chamber. That’s maybe a bad metaphor.

Terrible metaphor. But we

but Michael Fannon was we we’re ready to break him out if we didn’t sell enough tickets, didn’t even need did he sold out before people even knew about Fannon. He was just a little cherry on top. So if you did not get a ticket because you’re sold out, you can’t come see me if you want. On Wednesday, I’m gonna interview Robert Draper about his book in politics and prose. So I’m on a red eye.

I’m teaching a class. I’m going to a meeting with Sarah, then I’m going to interview Robert Draper, and then I’m gonna go to bed and get my get my energies up. For for live bulwark. What class are you teaching?

Some American university class. I don’t

know. Nice to hear bulwark reader, professor. Somebody liked us. Why don’t ask me if I could come back? Talk about

ethics. Oh, wait. You’re a GW guy. I am. And

I am. And I I’m an AIU, isn’t

that a sharks and jets? Thing, the AU GW? There’s no No.

No. Georgetown. Georgetown. So a u is, like, our, like, keep little keep I’m

gonna get you in trouble. Look,

no. That’s Kim. You’re a debut. But I I was I I did send a note to the GW department letting them know that I I haven’t been invited. And think that’s kind of strange.

A number of schools have invited me, not my alma mater. And so I did send them a sternly worded note, and I think that I might get invited next semester. Did you know? Me neither. So get in the line.

Alright. Good show, long show. Everybody. Yeah. Hit subscribe.

Mash the subscribe button. Hit the like button, go to the bulwark dot com, sign up for all of our great stuff, listen to the podcast, read the good articles, get Charlie Sykes’s newsletter every morning in your inbox. Fow free. Tim, Sarah. It’s been so

great. Bye.