Nancy Pelosi has amassed power through persuasion, and she had the nerve to push a sitting president off the ticket because she prioritized victory. Meanwhile, Kamala's veep pick is key to extending the new generation message—and wouldn't choosing Josh Shapiro be a good way to show she's not on the side of the flag-burning Hamasniks? Plus, mixed emotions for Joe Biden, and jealous Trump is back to being a total d**k. A.B. Stoddard joins Tim Miller.
show notes:
Wonderful convo. AB's valedictory for Biden was superb. I have loved Biden, too, since 1988 when I learned that he took Amtrak to and from DC every day so he could be home with his boyes every night. I saw then that the man just oozed decency.
Sarah and David Axelrod's pod brought me around to Josh Shapiro. Not that I didn't already like him, it's just that I was worried about his being Jewish. What their convo convinced me of was the absolute necessity of Kamala's winning Pennsylvania. It is a MUST. But it does make me sad that so many Black
folk and white men can't see the path towards Pete. As David Axerlrod said, "Pete is the most talented political athlete in the Democratic Party." Truer words have never been spoken.
Finally...the murder by the cop of the Black woman in Illinois was in the Springfield area, NOT Chicago. Just sayin. So I'm not fretting about this issue going into the DNC.
It's not "anti-Jewish" on the left that would be problematic for Shapiero - it's anti-Netenyaho. If he could be clear that he doesn't support someone many view as a war criminal who is keeping a war going in order to keep himself out of prison. We can disavow a Trump like leader in Israel and still support Israel. That is the tough needle to thread.
Tim, I liked your intro comment about the goals of The Bulwark. I think we (I) have been so stressed after the debate disaster that a lot of venting has happened. I was so relieved Biden resigned from the campaign that when you all dissed the speech in the Oval, well…families quarrel. Onward!
Plus like A.B. I cried so I already felt badly going in….😘
"If Hamas had never attacked Israel... They did, and we are where we are."
The Bulwark has been a beacon of sanity, a refuge for people tired of being told not to believe their lying eyes, tired of the gaslighting, tired of tribalism and hungry for honest, good faith news free from political ambitions.
It is not only okay, in the spirit of anti-tribal independence, to recognize all agents in a situation; it is essential to do so. In the spirit of tribe-free transparency, the agents in the Gaza slaughter are Hamas and the IDF, with Bibi at the helm and the US as its supplier. The Palestinian citizenry are the pawns caught between the two. Over 50000 have died and over 100000 have been injured, according to Euro-Med Monitor. About 1200 Israelis and others were killed on October 7. The ICJ and a US federal court have both concluded that Israel's activity in Gaza could constitute a genocide. Even UK leadership has begun to acknowledge Israel's agency in Gaza.
Terrorist groups do not obey the citizenry. The citizenry does not control terrorists. If they could, there would be much less bloodshed all over the planet. Gaza like any other place on Earth, was populated by humans doing what humans do—work, play, eat, sleep, learn, pray—albeit under the menace of mutual neighborly threat. Hamas is not the citizenry, nor has Hamas been bombing and shooting the citizenry, journalists, and aid workers, depriving them of food, water, witnesses, or medical care.
The Bulwark has as its mission not to tiptoe around powerful entities. It can and should assign agency where it exists, however uncomfortable and politically perilous it may be to do so. Israel does not get carte blanche to take revenge as it pleases because Hitler murdered a horrific number of Jewish people in the 1940s.
"If Hamas had never attacked Israel, and if Israel had not responded by killing over 50000 civilians and destroying over 70% of Gaza's buildings... They did, and we are where we are."
I love maniacal Tim. 💙💙💙
Great conversation with A.B., thanks!
Tim, I think I have a better understanding of why you reacted to Biden's speech the way you did, but of course I could be wrong.
I was angry with the panel because everyone seemed so dismissive of Biden's speech, but it came across as being dismissive of the man.
Biden looked and sounded terrible, and very old; no question about that. I had hoped one of you would comment on the words, on what he said.
When you were talking with A.B. you said you were angry with Biden, furious that his pride almost got us a Trump presidency. Now I get why you didn't want to take him seriously, why you were dismissive. I wish you had said that, or maybe you didn't realize how much your anger influenced your discussion of his speech.
I was angry, too, because as a voter who wanted Biden to step aside I felt that my reps were letting me down by not respectfully asking him to drop out of the race - I called them all as I am sure others did - and if Biden had stayed in the race I would have voted for him but perhaps not my reps in Congress. I was angry at Biden, too, but I am grateful that he ultimately did the right thing and I am sure it hurt like hell. I forgave him.
You don't need to forgive him, obviously, but I hope you can move on and find a measure of peace. It's going to be an intense few months!
I was so glad to hear AB say she was obsessed about the lack of the medical report on Trump's ear injury. I feel like I'm screaming into the void when I mention the white-coated doctors in front of a mic in front of a hospital after a mass shooting or shooting of a prominent person.
Look how many times (at least, it seemed like a lot) that we heard from a doctor as described above when Trump was hospitalized for Covid. But for this, an attempted assassination of a former president plus one dead and two in critical condition.....AND WE HEAR NOTHING?
It's insane.
Tim,
Great self-revealing intro. Thanks for your explanation/commentary/introduction!
You're like my loveable nephew (I actually have one --- an expat in Scotland).
As the San Francisco cultural movers of the 1960s offered: "Keep on keeping on!"
Tim, I’m glad you set out your case in the first few minutes of the podcast. If I understand what the hubbub was about, it was about complaints regarding the tone of your live stream. Certainly, you are never obligated to align with any group, and should always speak your truth. But are you saying listeners should stay silent they don’t agree with you? If so, please state that clearly. I think for the most part, your listeners are intelligent and able to absorb a variety of opinions. The pushback was about the callous tone. To suggest that it was all about the fact that you didn’t reflect their viewpoints or “pump sunshine”, is a simplification and a little condescending, frankly. Instead, when you get a lot of pushback, it seems it might behoove you to take just a moment to reflect.
Thank you, DH.
"Suburban white ladies love gays." 100% not wrong!! 😂😂😂
Tim, listen to your husband! I hope it doesn't take you a month to let go of your anger at Joe. You have been in politics for your whole career, right? You have to know HOW DIFFICULT it was for a lifelong politician to give up the position he has been striving for for soooo long. You and Joe have the same goal - to keep CFT out of the oval office. Should he have stepped down earlier? Yeah, maybe, although I personally think up until a few months ago, he really didn't look or sound as bad as he does now. Aging happens gradually, and it is easy to convince yourself that tiny little changes aren't really adding up to a big difference.
Joe Biden is a damn good man. And only a man. Please give him some grace and, as my favorite coffee mug says, let that shit go. Holding onto that anger isn't helping you either, love! 💜
Totally onboard Tim. You’re doing a great job even when the message is uncomfortable. Thanks
Has anyone coined the phrase Kamallapalooz for the convention? (If not I’m trademarking it).
Go for it, John. Earn some $$$.
Nothing better than making some ching for the good.
My prediction du jour--Trump dumps JD for Nikki. Nikki is nothing if not craven. Donald will pretend he's not racist or misogynistic (good luck), but he really want to reclaim center stage in the attention sweepstakes.
I really hope Harris campaign listens to AB on having a 60 Minutes interview to ahead of the BS attacks.
And AB is beautiful with or without wet hair!
I agree that the Criminal-In-Chief might want to do dump 'J'ust 'D'ull Vance, but that is not as easy as just saying he'd do it.
The Republican Party blessed the Jethro from the Beverly Hillbillies. Not really easy to do and could be an internal atomic-bomb.
The ads coming from the Lincoln Project would be --- "Do you want the Three Stooges running the country???"
Thanks Tim for the purpose at the top. After Biden Trump debate I knew I couldn’t listen to y’all. So I took a break. Upon Kamala taking the reins I’m back and though sometimes I find the smugness annoying, it’s ok. Y’all have good takes even when I don’t want to hear it.
Harris campaign needs to stay on offense constantly. Even immigration, her chief vulnerability. This nonsense of trying to deny she was “border czar” is a sign of weakness. Go on offense! “We put together a bipartisan deal to secure the border but Trump killed it because he didn’t want a secure border for political reasons. Once again all he cares about is himself, not what’s good for America “ Why is this hard? Don’t defend, pivot to attack!
CONSTANT OFFENSE!!!
Be like Trump and dismiss any negative --- just go forward.
Tim, can we get a transcript of your intro? I try explaining The Bulwark to my liberal friends and I know I never do it justice, but you summed it up perfectly. The Bulwark is a crucial weapon to fight illiberalism and we need more enlightened people from both sides of the isle tuned in and turned on.
Michelle, life-long liberal Democrat here and I never miss listening to or reading Tim, Mona, Bill, A.B., JVL. I thank them all for their wonderful contributions.
Same. I've been listening since day-1. While I sorely miss Charlie, I think Tim is coming into his own and gets better with each podcast.
The apple podcast feed now has an auto generated transcript if you scroll down a bit. Thanks! https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-bulwark-podcast/id1447684472?i=1000663351170
Got it, thanks!!!!
Great intro Tim
I thought it was both funny and clever to refer to Roy Cooper as Foghorn Leghorn.
Kamala should just pick the person she trusts the most - the end. She will be happy. We will feel her happiness. Win. Win.
If we lose- I want to lose this way. Fighting with Coconuts . If we fail. I’m good. My view has been properly heard.
Loved that you noted Feb 13, 2021 and Mitch. If there is one person I can blame for this entire political mess, it’s McConnell. I cannot stand the man. And with guilt I have enjoyed watching Trump break his party. Or at least what he thought his party was.
I wonder if it was his team that purposefully scheduled the early debate as a way to showcase what was happening?
Right. I keep wondering if someone, or maybe a few people on the team, saw the disaster up the road. And helped get the debate moved up, not to unbury the campaign, but to 'expose' it as a catastrophic mistake.
Sounds calculating, but I have to wonder. I'm sure the closest compadres had a terrible time fighting and arguing with so many naysayers. But I have to think some others must have been seeing the obvious. And maybe set about quietly arranging a course correction? 🐝
I’m Jewish. Please don’t choose Shapiro. Please leave us out of it. There has been enough anti-semitism in the past 2 years. A Shapiro candidacy will bring the extremists out of the woodwork.. it’s not the time.
My thoughts exactly (as a Jew). A black woman president and a Jewish VP? WAY too much for many voters. Let’s take one slow step at a time. Kamala’s husband is Jewish. I would hate to create panic that Jews are taking over the government - since we already control banking and the media.
Otherwise, Josh Schapiro would be absolutely perfect for VP. He’s super smart and very impressive. Alas.
My grandfather said that Jews should stay out of politics because if something goes wrong, they’ll blame us all. After seeing the racist reaction to Obama‘s presidency, I’d prefer one of the many qualified goyim that we have to choose from.
Tim the fatal shooting of the black woman by the police was in Springfield not Chicago. Springfield is down state from Chicago.
I think that Kamala ad that you played was awesome! I support all of those things. I think you guys have to understand as prior Republicans many people want a lot of those things! Universal Healthcare, or at least a public option - yes! Insurance isn’t working!!! Not more cops but more community policing, yes! There’s a lot there that many Gen Zers like, and i think your’e letting your prior REpublican ideology cloud what a lot of people want. No fracking - hell ya! I wouldn’t change any of those views. Also FYI: Kamala DID address the protests outside congress! She condemned them, including the flag burning!
Seriously. Universal healthcare sounds excellent, fracking is literally causing earthquakes and property damage and is poisoning our water supply, it's been well known for a while that more cops and bigger police budgets has no simple correlation to crime rates.
I love the Bulwark, but sometimes their Republican priors drive me insane.
Fabulous talk and thank you both! You know the game when people ask you if you could invite anyone in the public sphere to a dinner party? Both of you would be on my guest list.
Question on the Pete focus groups with black men... id like to know more context. Like what questions were, what the primary goal for the focus group was, etc.
Roy Cooper is my governor. Great governor but he looks old and is soft spoken. Great for a governor but not what the Harris campaign needs.
Tim, I strongly suggest you have Seth and Emily of "Walk the Walk" on your podcast. It's the only political organization I support monetarily. I also write Postcards with "Postcardstovoters.org" I highly recommend their organization.
What is the music at the end?
jealousy, jealousy by Olivia Rodrigo
Thanks!
I'm a left-wing social democrat, and I don't expect you guys to be left-wing social democrats. When you get too much in your Republican groove, I may hit the 30-second skip button a few times when certain issues pop up, but otherwise, be you. Maybe a little less talk of Republican's in the Cabinet? The Democrat's always have to be the reasonable ones, but nah - purely Democratic Cabinets until the GOP puts in an actual Democrat in their Cabinet.
That’s a really good question, why must Democrats always be the compromisers?
Love the pod, love all the intra-Bulwark content this happy week!
My VP two cents for anyone who cares to listen *shrug*: seems like Roy Cooper and Mark Kelly are the hardest to attack as leftist and the easiest permission structure for white dudes in all states.
It's my first Veepstakes (haven't followed past elections that closely, it's nice for it to actually be fun sometimes), my money's still on Kelly but there's reasons to not do everyone!
They need to think New Orleans Superdome as well. The Katrina refuge turned into the launching pad for Kamala.
When Joe steps on to the stage at the convention, it will be off the chains with love. I predict 5 minutes of cheering and tears... And then he introducers her... Electric. I think it will need to be in a stadium, or Madison Square. Hmmm... Flip it.. fill Mercedes Benz in Atlanta
I do understand Tim's anger at Biden. A long with all us Bulwarkers, I to f-----g hate Trump. I wrote two weeks ago that the debate debacle was a blessing in disguise. Could you honestly imagine what would have happened had this occurred in Sept. or Oct. ? Tim is most likely right in that Joe would not bow out of the race. ( except for the pressure put on him the last three weeks) Joe has been a good president. Perhaps the best one term president, period. The Trump people are making ridiculous argument that it was a coup against Biden. No. It has been voters who have been telling us for two years that he shouldn't run. (as AB pointed out) Joe, your service to our country for 50 years has been great. For that I salute you!
All’s well that ends well. Biden’s exit could not have been timed any better. It probably wasn’t intended that way but it worked out.
Lest we forget the real victims through all this, the Bulwark writers.. thoughts and prayers for being mad at Biden.
Tim love the bulwark and AB I thought since 2020 he was leaving for 2024. I am a boomer slightly left of center very open minded. So dear Tim et al please don’t dump us into the same pile. Do I agree with everything you say. No but I listen, learn and examine my own beliefs. BTW I really was the poor kid who grew up in working class home who now has PhD
Pete would be my first choice on the merits for VP. I've had the opportunity to meet him in my work at DOT and he is every bit as smart and engaging as he seems on TV. I understand the concerns -- I can see the shitty paid and unpaid ads about having no First Lady, just First and Second Gentlemen. I also think it is reductive to refer to Roy Cooper as "Foghorn Leghorn." He is a successful, popular governor with a solid track record.
Also, on Tim's prologue about getting involved -- I promise you that your local Board of Elections is looking for poll workers and beginning training now for the November election. If you have the time, please consider helping out. 2024 has the potential to be a super high-turnout election. Also, my first response to anyone who questions election integrity is "why don't you sign up to be part of the process?"
Who can we pressure to get the details of the shooting? Glad Tim keeps bringing this up. TFG was way to quick to say it was a bullet - and as usual, he's controlling the narrative. I'm still thinking about the early report I read that one of the cops who was nearby said it was a fragment from the teleprompter. If there's nothing to hide, then why are they hiding the details?
I wish the Democrats could make this election about defending the Constitution. I do not know why they are so cagey about praising and defending the Constitution. One can make an argument for voting for Harris regardless her past policy positions. It's OK to vote for her and even oppose most of her positions. We have to preserve our constitutional rights first. Policy comes second. We also need a constitutional amendment to undo Trump v U.S. to restore the presidency back to not being above the law.
I thought that was the whole premise of the Democratic party, defending the Constitution. It has been the mantra ever since Trump has been on the scene.
Sometimes people hear the narrative in their head more loudly than what is actually said. The Democrats have been talking nonstop about protecting democracy and the rule of law. I would think it would be assumed that that includes the constitution.
This has been the very best podcast ever. Tim and AB have enriched political discourse immeasurably with intensity and honesty. Your discussion was heartening in content, your opinions grounded in reality and a love of country. Thank you.
I was at Kamala’s rally on Tuesday. It was stunning to hear and feel a deep mass inhalation and exhalation, a communal sense of a great weight being lifted.
Tim, I so appreciate your work for the good of us all, and so sorry that you have been so viciously assaulted by nastiness online, hurts much worse than sticks and stones, I know. Keep well. We need you. BTW, I got a deep chuckle over yii of ur comments about suburban women and gays. You are spot on. As a child my ’nuclear’ family lived in the same house with my mom’s lesbian sister and her partner - funny thing, aunt Elna didn’t turn me gay. I became an artist and musician and worked 50 years in the creative field where there is a much higher population of gays than people realized, especially in the years of locked closets. One of my avocations is dog shows, where women and gays kinda rule the world - so I get what you are saying. I’m a suburban woman, go figure.
Peace.
After listening to Pete go after JD on Maher and PSA, I would sell one of my kids to watch those two in a VP debate.
Love what you guys do, Tim! Proud to support it for years now. You’ve done something special here and the community is great. Speaking of which I certainly hope you plan another DC event right before or after the election.
Good podcast.
I never had a problem with you wanting Biden to dropout. I just thought that (1) the process would be shit (I got this dead wrong) and (2) that an old white Biden was better than a smart aggressive black woman when it comes to winning in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. I hope I’m wrong.
I never understand why dems need to literally comment on everything that is said or done by people in this country. Why don’t republicans have to comment on guns or white nationalist or whatever. Seems so weird
Because Democrats feel they basically have to defend and Republicans don't unless they are angry.
But why does Kamala need to respond to a protest about Palestinians but Trump doesn’t need to comment about the white national rally in Nashville? Seems to me time and ab hold dems to a ridiculous standard and have no standard at all for republicans
Beating a dead horse. But, I don't think his team made a mistake in scheduling that debate early. I think someone knew exactly what they were doing. And kudos to them.
Luv the Bulwark podcast Tim!! *hugs* the Bulwark team :) !!
Didn't realize how long AB has been a fan of Biden, or how much time she's spent w/ him. Loved hearing her sing his praises, while also being unequivocal that he needed to step aside.
I didn't realize either.
One correction, Tim. The Sonya Massey shooting occurred in Springfield, IL. You seem to suggest the shooting was in Chicago. Springfield is a good distance away from Chicago and definitely not a part of the Chicago area. Loved the episode!
Plus the cop was fired immediately and has already been charged with murder and is sitting in jail now.
Yes, Tim and the rest. Stay off "the team" and report from the sidelines. I am a member to support great opinion journalism.
It’s interesting …. Hearing that ad against Kamala, I who was an R in the before times and don’t agree with all those things she said, I was not too put off by the ad because it was obvious there were cuts which clipped her responses which were likely pretty nuanced and which many people actually agree with now.
So far I think TIM WALZ is the best speaker. He's warm, funny - makes Trump and Vance look like weirdo baffoons w/o seeming too mean. If no VP - he's a GREAT surrogate. He needs to be out there - all day, every day.
Walz is my governor. Everything you say about him is true. However, I still think Shapiro is the best coach for VP.
Agree. He’s great, and as a successful second term governor, has administrative know-how. And he IS funny and sharp.
This is why I trust the Bulwark over Dem-aligned podcasts - it takes a crew of former Republicans to recognize the Dems’ blind spots and faults, as well as teaching them how to campaign. Haven’t you noticed that whenever the Dems take the Bulwark’s advice, they start doing better? I remember how the Dems started doing the things the Bulwark staff advised them to do (popular messaging bills, offense on abortion, moderate positioning) in 2022 and they did great in the midterm! The same is happening for this saga - switching to Kamala completely wiped out all the gains Trump had made since the debate in a matter of days (which includes a convention and assassination attempt bounce - all gone), and Kamala turns out to be a good campaigner and is popular with young and non-white voters! Being able to see the truth about yourself is how you can have better strategy.
I've felt a little guilty that I learned about TB when Tim was on Pod Save America - and went from never missing a PSA pod to rarely missing a Bulwark pod or newsletter. And it was specifically b/c I knew Favreau & co. were going to say what I wanted to hear; but I wanted to hear never-Trumpers who are intelligent, experienced, respectful, and clear-eyed about our party.
welcome to the party!
Interestingly, the PSA guys were also vocal about the problems with Biden, especially these last few weeks, which earned them animosity from some of their listeners too.
The fact that they’re former Republicans is part of the appeal. Republicans were great at campaigning in the pre-Trump days and Dems should learn from them in terms of how to fight and win elections.
True. They were more clear-eyed about Biden stepping down than I was, for sure. I kept thinking that he saved us from Trump, and maybe he was just having a bad day. But the truth is that he did need to step down. And Harris is a fantastic contrast with Trump, which we badly need.
For me it really was Nancy Pelosi indicating he should leave that was what made me feel comfortable with the idea. She knows how to count and win, and doesn't have "it's about me ego"
Thanks for not blowing sunshine
or smoke up where the sun don't shine
Thanks for the reset at the top of the show. It was excellent and shows your humility and confidence, two attributes that more in leadership need to show. And I'm glad your aware that we may have new listeners that need to know what the Bulwark is about. I hope you do it often.
.
I love the Bulwark podcasts, and even though I get pissed off at Tim sometimes, I still like to listen to what he has to say. It’s a great podcast, as are all of the other podcasts.
I think Nancy’s and Mitch’s superpower was that they can count votes.
It appears that’s a lost art.
It's lost because they don't really want to pass anything, just to obstruct the other party's bills.
Performance
As a friend of mine says, "Mitch McConnell is evil personified." He was Nancy's moral opposite long before the J6 impeachment stuff.
I’m a Pete girl 100%.
I heard one of Sarah’s black women in the FG say that Josh Shapiro is an “example that Jews can get away with anything” and my heart broke.
83% of the new registrants are kids. Registration is up 700%. Kids don’t give af whether somebody is gay.
The churchgoers aren’t going to vote for Trump. They’ll vote for Kamala. If she has a gay VP, they’ll vote for Kamala.
I don't know the background of "Jews get away with anything", but I find it an odd statement when we have a former President now Presidential candidate who HAS and DOES get away with anything.
It was the focus group of all black women that Sarah had last week. It was a response to Shapiro as a candidate.
These were Democrats. They wouldn’t excuse Trump. It was just rank antisemitism.
I like Pete too, but won't complain about Shapiro. I'd love to see Pete take on JD Vance for a number of reasons. The first being I don't believe praying the gay away works. It just warps.
You'll hear white people saying the same thing. It's age old.
At least 5000 years.
When humans and dinosaurs roamed the earth, according to Mike Johnson.
I’d like more analysis and criticism of the Democrats. Why are elections still close when the GOP has gone batshit insane? Why aren’t they getting Bill Clinton 1996 numbers?
Electoral college and polarisation.
You could run FDR/Reagan vs. Stalin/Hitler and each side would still get 43%.
2008 is proof of that - McCain while a decent candidate wasn't anything special, and Barack Obama was running for the out party with 20 charisma, and after a terrible 2nd term for the GOP and an economic collapse.
The fact that even then Obama topped out at 53% is proof that's the ceiling. Maybe with shifts in population, it's 54 or 55%, but even Biden would've gotten 45% this fall.
This. All of this. In fact if you ran the exact same situation as 2008 now with the exact same candidates I bet Obama gets closer to 2020 Biden than 2008 Obama. That’s how polarized we have become in 12 years.
Today's polarized, tribal electorate.
Clinton 1996 might not be the best thing to write there, third party complications etc.
Still, I think a healthy 55-60% party is possible against MAGA.
No chance. You run the exact same candidates now in the exact same situation as 2008 now Obama loses at least 2 points. He may lose because of the ec.
The issue that you don’t want to identify (and I don’t blame you because if you come to this conclusion it says awful things about us voters) is that the voters care more about R vs. D than anything else.
Welcome to polarization. Comparing bill Clinton’s election to today’s election is like apples and oranges. Fox had just begun and was conservative but honest. The entire media ecosystem has been turned on its head (btw this is true in almost every developed country).
That too
Obama got 69.5 million votes in 2008. H Clinton got 65.8 M in 2015. Biden did better than that in 2020 with 81 M. B Clinton had 44.9 M in 1992.
He means percentages
Yeah but percentages and actual vote totals do not reflect the number of occasional or first time voters who came out to vote for Trump twice. I don't know that anyone has quantified that but I believe that it accounts for some of Trump's success in getting votes.
AB made a good point today with Tim that she thought Kamala will bring in new voters where Trump won't
Because they are scared to elevate a more talented candidate over the "presumed successor," even though voters don't believe in such a concept. That's at least one cause. Also, they are stuck on policy and candidate resume. Things that general election voters have paid little attention to in my life time. The current president isn't as skilled as he was in 2020, and wasn't ever nearly as skilled as Clinton was. The key to the Whitehouse is talent.
Furthermore, the Democrats don't understand politics. It's astounding how amateurish they can be about this stuff. Take for example the platform of the current president during his 2020 campaign, and it looks like the new candidate will have essentially the same platform. This platform is further left than his ideal for a candidate that needs to appeal to swing state voters. Why they feel the need to cater to a base that is almost certainly going to vote for them anyways, or that they won't lose insignificant enough numbers to worry about, is beyond me. In 1996, Bill Clinton took positions that were very appealing to the median voter. You just don't see this here. And they still haven't learned that lesson. No way does Joe Biden beat anybody in 2020 besides Donald Trump. It is the dislike and the fatigue from Trump's term that gave the Democrats the White House. But they of course attributed to their candidate and their platform. I can assure you it had almost nothing to do with those thin
You would find very little difference regardless of who dems ran. (Probably the difference between the “worst” candidate and “best” is probably no more than 4 points…so Obama 2008)
No. Obama won pop vote in 2008 52.9 to 45.7%. Biden was 4.5% over trump. Sure partisanship makes a 1972 or 1984 landslide highly unlikely if not impossible, and lends an electoral college advantage to the GOP, but does not explain why Trump's ass has not been handed to him.
So no Clinton over dole numbers (and Ross perot was fairly popular for a 3rd party candidate btw). But no way the Democrat should be behind Trump. Now they may not once the race settles. But you won't be outside the margin of error. Which is quite possible with a generational talent. The Democrats promoted the presumed successor with the sorry fatalism they're known for.
They also trust opinion polling to get them elected in ways that ought to be considered dubious. It's not what voters say but what they do. For example, if they say climate change is a huge concern, you cant then talk about banning fossil fuel consumption etc. not in the Midwest where people still prefer American cars for crying out loud.
Kevin this isn’t true. Biden got 51% not 46%. Where are you getting that number?
First let’s stipulate a few things:
1. Obama ran in the best year ever (a financial crisis 2 months before the election after 8 years of war under the opposition party…Clinton would have crushed too but probably not as well as Obama).
2. Obama was a generational politician. Biden is not.
3. The media environment was drastically different in 2008 than 2020 or 2024 (social media was barely anything in 2008. I know I was an early investor in twitter).
First Biden got 51% of the vote in 2020 and Obama got 53% in 2008. A 2 point margin. Let’s get our facts straight here.
You are comparing Clinton’s reelection to Biden unseating an incumbent. Very very different. You would need to compare Clinton 1992 to Biden 2020 not his reelection bid in 1996.
I’m not sure if you noticed but look at almost every single election around the world. They are ALL getting crushed. Literally all of them. Doesn’t matter if they are left, center left, center, right, ultra right or even semi-authoritarian (Israel, Hungary, India, and turkey). It doesn’t matter if they are old or young or male or female. Incumbents and incumbent parties are just losing everywhere.
It’s easy to say “there has to be someone out there that everyone likes” but there is no evidence in our politics that this is true. Literally every president starts out at the highest favorability rate the day they take the oath. Then it falls until it’s at its lowest level when they leave office (true for Obama too).
I agree, Barack Obama would be on his 4th term by now if not for that darn 22nd Amendment.
But, there is no Barack Obama out there, and no, neither Whitmer or Shapiro are Obama. Maybe Whitmer would be running a point or two better right now. Maybe.
No way. Obama would not be on his 4th term. Not possible in our politics. He probably wins in 2016 but not 2020. Polarization has been skyrocketing during and since Obama.
I love whitmer. She is far too left for the presidential stage.
Shapiro is a big talent. Way way better than Harris. natural sounding and relatable. Moderate. From a must win swing state. He's the best talent since Obama. And is comparably gifted. Clinton and Obama were not highly touted talents who gradually worked their way up. That is a bunch of nonsense. Think big to win.
I'm not saying you're wrong but just to be clear I'm not talking about just the most recent news cycle or even just Harris/Biden or for that matter even just the presidency.
Maybe I'm being too hard on the Democrats. They do have both Georgia and 1.5 of Arizona's senate seats, plus the GA governorship, for example.
Still seems like an underperformance when the other side is MAGA.
I meant AZ governorship!
Democrats have won basically all special elections since 2020. They have taken a lot of governorship and state legislatures since 2020. Compare 2012 to today. You would be surprised.
They did replenish the talent and now have a deep bench. But they refuse to use it, or maybe they can't because they boxed themselves in with the identity politics stuff. Which should have been clear was a total failure and no longer useful after the 2016 election. Yes, the nation really will elect a racist satanic piece of garbage like Trump if they dislike the Democratic candidate.
Counterpoint: have they won as much as you would expect with the opposition party being effectively controlled by Trump during that time period? Nope. I mean sure they have improved. But there's still a lot of amateur hour stuff.
No they haven’t but that’s because voters don’t care much for anything other than partisanship. That’s the issue. It’s nothing to do with candidates
That doesn't work as an explanation at all. There are a bunch of voters in several states that can be persuaded to vote for a candidate from either party. Sure, gains are limited by opportunities which are affected by partisanship. But it's not just partisanship. Especially not the presidential elections, which were won by not-hilary and then by not-trump.
Kevin, apologies, I didn’t mean there isn’t a very very small amount of people that aren’t pure partisans. I’m saying that polarization has made it impossible to have anything close to blowouts in national elections. Look at the difference between obama’s vote share in 2008 in probably the best environment imaginable and Biden’s win in 2020. It’s marginal and polarization has only gotten worse (also the media environment has fractured even more…100m cable subs in 2007 compared to 70m now).
I am not saying that there aren’t non-partisan voters, they are just vanishingly small. That’s all.
You could run satan versus Jesus and it would be a 53-47 election (honestly 55-45 probably).
Remember how decimated the Democratic party was in 2012? (state legislatures) They were in awfully bad shape then. Since 2020, they have made a pretty good comeback largely due to the extremeness of Trump supported candidates.
Yes this is a good point. They realized they neglected state and local stuff. They restocked their bench in recent mid term cycles. It took an overly long time though. I don't understand how they've let the their electoral appeal die on the vine for so many years. Though that's what's happening in the GOP right now, I think..
So much of those losses were the result of passing Obama care. But now it is very popular.
"1.5 of Arizona's senate seats" - good one!
We're gonna level that up come November!!
I listened to your intro, young man, two thumbs up.
100% love the Gieg!!!!!!!!!! I know we’d lose a lot of votes, but shit, it would be brilliant!
Totally agree.
Kamala Harris is our primal scream.
Tim, kudos to the first 5 minutes articulating what the pod is & isn’t ~ I’m so here for that! 👏🏻
No BS from Tim.
The reason why I listen to Bulwark pods and am a Bulwark+ member is BECAUSE you don’t always say what I want to hear. Tim, I’m right there with you. Biden going for a second term was always a mistake, and I am still grumpy with him and the leadership. Biden claimed to be a transitional candidate. The leadership should have held him to that. We are incredibly lucky that Harris is clearly an energizing candidate who can give a hell of a speech AND GOT BEYONCÉ AS HER CAMPAIGN SONG. If we pull this off, I’m giving Bey like 40% of the credit on that alone. But I’m holding on to my resentment until after the election and we see how this plays out, since that will ultimately be the lens through which his actions are judged.
On a lighter note, this British family ripping JD Vance to the tune of Dancing Queen... https://youtu.be/vYILYILPrXs?si=6G2u5Q6ovJbVCnRp
Oh my goodness this is brilliant! We gotta make this go viral!
I'm not logging in to the Bulwark to listen to a podcast that agrees with me about everything, or follows a party line; I'm here for smart analysis that in turn makes me smarter. Getting smarter is a process that frequently challenges and even angers anyone who is serious about it. You keep doing you, Tim.
I agree, was raised to listen to all sides in order to make an informed decision. That said, there was a bit of whiny and snarky comments overload for me here for several weeks. Glad balance is restored with some snarl and some cheering. P.S. in my own research, I'm finding some evangelical Christian women are responding well to "would you vote for woman who had 5 kids by 3 different husbands?" in comparison to Trump. This gives me hope.
I love that framing! It's just genius.
😘
Well said Tim, I don’t always agree with you but I’m not going anywhere. I appreciate your insight, honesty and humor. I’m currently listening to about 5 political podcasts a day and you are hands down the best, thanks.
Love you, Tim. I am fully on board with everything you said in your intro. Thank you to you and everyone at the Bulwark for being, above all, truth tellers.
Maybe my favourite episode of 2024. Tim and A.B. at their best. There’s a feeling of hope. Of caution. There’s great advice (are you listening Harris campaign?) Tim, your opening was bang on. I’m a centre left Canadian with no skin in the game but I’ll support you and the Bulwark and your only mission to keep Trump out! 🇨🇦
On the Butler mass shooting: this is something that needs to be re-framed. It was a mass-shooting--defined by four or more people being shot--that the Trump campaign has spun as some kind of political violence targeting Trump. It was not that, it was closer to a troubled kid who went out to kill people just like school shooters do, but targeting Trump was his way of "dying loudly" rather than going for a body count.
Calling it "an assassination attempt" makes it about Trump rather than being about the victims as a group--one of which is dead, two others were in critical condition--while all the attention goes to the guy who got the tip of his ear cut. Shit reminds me of dudes who I saw get a tiny cut on their cheek from an IED explosion trying to get purple hearts alongside dudes who lost legs and shit like that. This mass shooting should be more about those victims than it is about Trump.
It was clearly an assassination attempt. A mass shooting is not aiming to kill one specific person.
It can be both. Mass shootings often begin as someone trying to kill a single person and they just keeping going from there until the cops kill them.
The other night I looked up the firing rate of an AR-15. It is 400 to 800 per minute. That is roughly 7 to 14 per second. The choice of mass shooters yet anyone can own one.
That’s on full auto. Full-auto ARs aren’t for sale unless you go through an extremely lengthly background check and pay a bunch of extra $$$. Regular old ARs are semi-auto (one trigger pull = one round fired).
Thanks for the info, Travis. How about bump stocks? I heard a lot about them being mentioned but to my knowledge they are legal. By the way, I'm not a gun owner. (not against the 2nd amendment) And have never felt the need for one. Whenever I hear someone use the argument about needing one for protection I think perhaps they should move to a different neighborhood.
Yes, bump stocks do rapidly increase the rate of fire. They're in a different category and can be purchased and installed pretty easily. For a legit full-auto AR you need to go through the "NFA" process (national firearms act of '86). That requires fingerprints, an extra $200 for the application, a notification of the local sheriff's office, and a deeper background check than your typical firearms purchase form. It also takes between 4-10 months to get done. With a bump stock you can just buy it and install it or get it installed by a local armorer. That said, full-auto firearms are *far* less accurate than semi-autos and that's why the military only uses machine guns in a suppression fashion to keep an enemy's head down while the riflemen advance. Soldiers using the M4 rifle are trained to only use semi-auto because that's how they make their shots hit. Full-auto on a rifle fire is basically just a good way to run out of ammo while not hitting much. It can only work "well" in situations like the Vegas shooting where the shooter had all of his fish in a barrel via packed audiences. That's where full-auto becomes lethal: when humans are packed together like pickles in a jar at a concert rather than spread apart like in a Walmart or a school.
ARs are indeed actually better for home defense because rifle rounds are more precise than handgun rounds--making them less likely to hit the wrong thing, and they're also more lethal--often requiring only a single center-mass hit to put someone down whereas a handgun may need 4-5 rounds to achieve the same thing (And again, they're less accurate). I'd rather fire fewer shots in a much more accurate fashion with a rifle than fire multiple shots that are less accurate with a handgun personally.
To put the lethality difference into context, you can tell almost immediately when a mass-shooting happens what kind of weapon was used via the dead-to-wounded ratio. If there are like 20 people shot and only 3-6 of them dead, most likely a handgun was used. If 20 people were shot and 17 of them are dead, most likely an AR-15 was used. .223/5.56 rounds tumble and fragment at close range when they hit things, making them much more lethal than a handgun bullet that at best expands in the case of hollow point ammo. AR-15 rounds are hitting things at close range at more than twice the velocity of handgun ammo and then kind of "explode" inside of the target when they fragment, causing a much wider internal wound channel with a lot more force behind it. Think of the physics equation for energy where velocity gets squared while mass is a single variable, making velocity a much larger component of kinetic energy and that's why AR-15s are so powerful when compared to handguns even though their bullets weigh less than half of what handgun bullets weigh and are a lot thinner via diameter.
How many people know who Officer Tippit is?
Our national press frames stories in their way not necessarily with honesty and accuracy and in proper context.
Fair point
I'll bet Trumpster keeps that bandage on his ear until after the election.
Probably.
As for the clip of "California liberal" comments: "I've learned a lot in five years working with Joe Biden. I've seen how govt and business can partner to move forward with things like CHIPS and energy production (most ever! Independent!). And honestly, don't you want a leader who can adapt to the changes in this rapidly evolving world economy? Instead of churning out the same tired, failed promises Trump's been making and breaking since 2015? Do you you really think BACKWARDS is the direction America should go?"
p.s. - let's point out that Jamie Vance has made some, shall we say drastic, changes of opinions? And those are fine, right?
Tim, I've paused to say this: You should listen to your husband and let your anger go. Your anger hasn't just clouded your analysis of what POTUS said last night, it was and is all of what you've talked about in terms of the speech (or at least that is all I've taken away from what you have said, so far).
It's true he delivered it poorly, but I listened to the words and was touched by what he said. The words resonate with other words written and spoken since the founding. For the life of e, not sure I've ever heard how well Washington delivered his Farewell Address.
As for the intro, cool. But for this particular reader/listener/customer I'm not sure the point of tearing down a good guy any more, or at least for much longer.
Fuck that, the way we should want MAGA to go after Kamala on the racial side to make MAGA look like shit in public we should want the same with a Shapiro VP slot. Not only is he super talented, but he will bring out the anti-Semitic MAGA base and make the campus left look docile by comparison. For me, Shapiro *is* the best pick on merit, but also because of the importance of PA in the race, that he can blunt any anti-fracking criticism thrown at Kamala, and that he'll bring out the MAGA anti-Semitism and shit-can the message that liberals are the anti-Semitic side when they're running a Jew for VP. He'll also absolutely wreck JD Vance in the VP debate. Nothing but pluses for me with respect to Shapiro. I love Pete and voted for him in the 2020 primary, but I think Shapiro is 100% the best choice here on a number of factors. Harris/Shapiro 2024 y'all!!!
Isn't Bern Jewish? People like him.
We just rid of an old guy, we ain’t trying to go back old.
My point is that it didn't stop bernie so why not shapiro.
?? Bernie didn't even get nominated. We are talking about a general election.
As in hes liked... geeze
Ahhh gotcha
Agreed on Shapiro!
^I should add that I say this as a Jew myself lol
From your lips to Kamala’s ear
Nah, I don’t want him shot by a crazed Leftist. Much more worrisome than MAGA.
There won't be a crazed leftist doing that. A crazed incel maybe, but not a crazed leftist. Crazed leftists go after SCOTUS justices and congressional baseball games.
That was true but now there’s Gaza.
I don’t make the rules, sadly.
The left also generally hate guns and suck at shooting so I'm not really worried about assassination attempts from the left who are scared of AR-15s generally-speaking, and the ones who aren't can't really shoot worth of shit anyway. I say this as a leftist who likes guns and *can* shoot lol. The fucking congressional baseball game guy was a lot closer to his targets than the Butler shooter and could barely make hits. I'm really not worried about that sort of thing, much more worried about crazy rightwing shooters.
I hope we are both wrong about all of it.
After Butler USSS is going to tighten up their game tighter than it already was. That makes me less worried too. All of these P/VP candidates are going to get the best protection details the government can foster from here on out.
Outdoor rallies are now out.
I hope there’s a new agency head soon.
Yea me too. The deputy will be able to do some ship-tightening in the meanwhile but it takes a new agency head to really get the institutional ship to turn.
Good intro comments, Tim!
Great distinction between Nancy Pelosi and Mitch McConnell!!
It's almost like - stick with me here - a woman can be an incredibly strong and effective political leader, whose ability to build relationships and keen insight into people's emotions is among her superpowers.
Tim, I'd encourage more compassion towards Biden and I suspect you might get there, but you feel what you feel so who am I to say otherwise. I'd love to see Pete as VP. I say go with a young, future orientated ticket and I don't think the older white Southern men really will do much for the ticket. It gives me a Tim Kaine vibe (nice man) but I still think if Hillary had picked someone like Julian Castro, it could have made the difference.
Not cults/ no teams. Real talk.
Tim, you are a podcast host and EVERY right to express your opinion. We are listeners and subscribers and every right to express our opinion….so tired of hearing you complain about Joe after he did the right thing…please …get over it. If you want to be mad at some one for getting Donald Trump elected, be mad at the voters who vote for him. (Ridiculous to state that Joe and Jill would be singularly responsible for electing Trump)
I don’t believe that is even remotely a close comparison. Up until the debate, I wanted Joe Biden as the Democratic nominee as did millions of other voters . That was June 27th. He withdrew is on July 21st less than a month later after his closest advisor showed him he had no path to win.
It seems lots of people think they know the “true” story about when and how his decline started because this or that staffer told gossip girl Olivia Nuzzi or some other reporter writing their expose what they saw, but we won’t know what actually happened for a long time to come after this is all over. Biden had one of the best campaign teams there is and they believed at the time that Biden was up to the debate on the 27th. So maybe he was and then he had some event in the last few weeks/months that accelerated the decline in his communication abilities. Then deciding what to do? can he come back? Is there time for a primary that won’t tear the party apart? Will our sometimes racist, misogynistic country accept a black woman as the nominee if it passes to VP? I think it is naive to act as if this was some easy decision and they should have just done option “A”. Very possible, Biden and his campaign made mistakes and erred in judgment but no evidence that they did with malice (such as taking siblings possession that was left them in will)
Biden didn't steal anything, and hasn't caused a huge rift and permanent damage.
Tim, I gotta say this I think the timing was perfect not planned but perfect Event had to take place The debate the tension host debate Trump getting shot at the Republican invention with JD Vance No one could’ve ever planned any of this, but I don’t think it could’ve worked the way it has any better
Listening to the intro love it love you, Tim love the bull work. You guys have saved me.
Tim…. First 5 minutes needed to be said. Keep doin’ the lord’s work.
Yes. Thank you Tim for spelling it out. The reason I’m here is because the Bulwark is NOT beholden to either party.
Absolutely. I needed to hear Tim’s perspective after last nights pod where his anger at Biden was palpable. I get it because I too despise/detest orange Caligula. Tim took more abuse than anyone for sure. Some blue MAGA’s are still at it though no longer attacking him specifically. His rage is earned.
Love AB. She’s honest, brilliant, empathetic, and experienced.
I agree with Norman. The timing makes you wonder if it was strategic. Waiting for the end of the RNC and VP selection was perfect. I guess we can all honestly be judge and jury in November. In the meantime, it’s up to all of us now.
I literally commented on a video on YouTube asking for more A.B. I freaking love this woman. More of her speaking and writing where I can comment and tell her that she’s the best. She’s just so lovely and we are so lucky to get to hear what she has to say.
Her glasses game is on point, too. So is Sarah's. The Bulwark gals are bringing it!
A.B. - maybe what you knew was that the voters understood that running a country is not an easy job. Honesty is always appreciated. Now let’s turn to the case of Trump’s age and mental capacity. It is also a serious issue.