Do not sleep on this: The billionaire tech bros are on board with the authoritarian project so they can capture the regulatory state. They are showering Trump with money to win his favor and using Vance to lock in control of the Republican Party. Plus, Kamala unveils her media strategy, and the damage Israel has done to terror groups since Oct. 7 is significant.
Bill Kristol joins Tim Miller.
show notes
Gifted Nate Cohn piece on the state of the race
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It is just impossible for us to believe that a) we don't control everything and everyone everywhere all the time? Or that b) Israel is sovereign state with it's own priorities? C'mon. This is Dumb College Lefty Thinky; this twisted, but apparently sincere, version of American Exceptionalism that puts us in the center of everything that happens all the time and always. Naturally they don't see it as a American Exceptionalism, but they do manage to assume no one else has or could ever have as much influence.
Your ending not could not have made me happier: I look forward to the return of "The Trump Trials" with Ben Wittes!
Your "breaking of the fourth wall" is in your work is a feature, not a bug. I know that from reading your book. And I appreciate the honesty.
Let's face it, right now everyone is tired, nervous, but most of all, on-edge. The slightest deviation from what we want to hear is making us all crazy. We all need a break; let's hope we're going to get one.
Best comment this podcast ... "I don't like that laugh". Musk has joined the Putin, Sulyok, Trump club ... just surround yourself with people that give you constant praise, even though absolutely nothing that comes out of their mouth is the truth. Perhaps that's why they are kindred spirits? It's baffling that we have such a close presidential race when we have only witnessed self promotion, petulance, lies, tantrums, and demonization of migrants from the former President.
Unfortunately, we now live in a world where self-promotion, petulance, lies, and tantrums have been normalized by social media.
Terrific pod. No need to apologize for the Kaitlan Collins convo...I totally got where you were coming from. I would LOVE to get Ben Wittes back!!!
The whole notion of Thiel, Must et. al as the new oligarchs is spot on...and scary as hell.
Lady, you must be psychic.
https://youtu.be/u0vXvxGRx48?si=x598a_SHg4gH4QAA
Glenn Youngkin is not a normal Republican. He’s another demagogue who wants to ban books and silence LGBTQ people.
I hope that come post/Trump days, the Bulwark mission will be to return the GOP to a sane, healthy party or create something new. To feed the good wolves that Sarah talked about.
Even the most partisan democrats must understand that our country needs a two-party system.
Extra appreciation for Tim's share re what's next and the stress (which we see, and worry).
I shared with my daughter this morning that I'm daily struggling with words. I hope it's this unending stress and that a Dem victory will clear my cache and reboot my vocabulary. 🤞
One of the clips included was Harris being asked about Israel rebuffing the administration's requests for restraint. Has anyone compared its requests for restraint from Israel to is conditioning aid to Ukraine on restraint? How common is it among the talking heads to tut-tut Israel for rejecting the advice of restraint while lamenting the administrations tieing Ukraine's hands behind its back?
On a related topic, should the perception of Israel as wantonly killing innocent civilians as a result of the media's coverage of the conflict be compared to MAGA enthusiasts thinking the 2020 election was stolen as a result of works like "2000 Mules?"
Very good podcast, thank you.
Tim, the end of one struggle brings strength for the next one. You are more than capable of it.
Why did the tech bros get red pilled for Trump?
The Silicon Valley Tech Bros went for Trump because they feared they were losing control of their companies to young employees who were demanding a say in running their companies. Demands like no military applications, no sales with Israel. The Bros saw their workers trying to seize the means of production and it scared them. It threatened the absolute control that owners have traditionally had over their companies. The Clubhouse incident appears to have been the central event in this.
These articles describe what happened in detail:
https://www.theverge.com/2020/7/16/21325678/venture-capitalists-vc-media-silicon-valley-clubhouse-tech-journalists
https://sfstandard.com/2024/08/16/felicia-ben-horowitz-party-switch/
The False Prophet identified for his sycophants his Enemy - Democrats, the Democratic Party, and all who are assisting the Harris-Walz campaign. The Enemy.
There's a modern incarnation of the Nazi SA out there, shipmates.
Tim’s closing comment was nice! But Mandy Patinkin did it better: https://youtu.be/W6-Dt1g2E18?si=_X6Jha5G5Rt9MDvQ
lolll
That is such a frightening image at the top, even the flag & flagpole seem ominous. (This image is such a warning.) Must help spark sense of urgency & commitment, will be canvassing the final few weeks. And praying as I do that the Dems sweep handily, good-hearted Americans step up big time. It can happen, must happen.
The billionaires are doing nothing but hedging their bets. Trump has made it clear that he is keeping score, so if you are one of these guys, you see this as a hedge. Cozy up to Trump, give him some protection money and you are covered if he wins. There is no upside for them to endorsing Harris. If she wins, they are still wealthy and her administration isn't going to seek retribution. Sounds like an easy bet to make. Of course, we would all like to think that if we had this kind of money, we would use it stand up for what is right or send it to a hurricane ravaged area. The fact is, they consider this a hedge, but also an investment.
I'm sorry, did I miss that our Presidential candidates are asked if we're allied with Zelenskyy? Do they not say Ukraine?
Are we talking about Iran or Lebanon or whoever heads the government?
We're allied with Israel. Not Bibi. How is that difficult???
Question was a "gotcha." She did fine.
The Bulwarks secret sauce is honesty. When Trump is gone the Bulwarks secret sauce will be its honesty.
Rick Perlstein’s perceptive and witty take on the Andreesens’ personal world and outlook: https://prospect.org/power/2024-04-24-my-dinner-with-andreessen/
News junkies of the world unite!
Loved the breaking of the fourth wall with your honesty and contextualizing your exchange with KC, but I have a bit of trepidation about tomorrow’s guest…that was quite a teaser? “Buckle up”?? Tell me it’s not Ross again. I can’t take it.
No worries re the KC exchange - I so appreciate your style, wit, & political views. I almost vibrate when I consider another DT admin. This has been a tortuous 10 years. May it be over soon when US voters declare “You lost, you’re FIRED”
We all know that when Trump accuses others of horrible things it is always him who is guilty and he is projecting, whether conscious of him own behavior or not. So when he accuses Biden, Harris and the government are in cahoots with an evil cabal of fascists, violent totalitarians, etc. he is pretty much admitting what He, Elon, JD and company are up to.
If you want to know what crap Trumpo will pull next, look at what he accuses everybody else of doing.
Great job as always ;) Just a clarification, I live in Italy and here we do have a right wing gov’t though we - unlike Hungary -are still a democracy with free and fair elections… hopefully it will stay that way or I might have to move!
As Bill mentioned near the end, I am also more confident in Harris now compared to last week. She is starting the kamala blitzkrieg in doing interviews and being out there. The more people see her the better.
I'm a dual national, US/Brazil, who lives in Brazil, and I want to say how proud I am of the way my country of naturalization has confronted Elon Musk and brought him to heel. Musk seems to have thought that he only needed to bend to authoritarian regimes like Turkey and China, that democratic regimes were soft and weak and that he could push them around. Minister Alexandre de Moraes of the Supreme Federal Tribunal, our Supreme Court, has proven him wrong and firmly schooled him about how much tolerance at least one democratic country is willing to show to the firehose of lies that he facilitates.
Not coincidentally, it was the same Minister Moraes who led the effort to bring to book the criminals of January 8, 2023, an eerily similar insurrection to the one that was committed in Washington on January 6, 2021. Admittedly, the Brazilian judiciary, like many judiciaries in Europe, has investigative powers that the American judiciary does not -- but Merrick Garland has had them for almost four years. One key difference is that Moraes and his colleagues refused to dither: they acted.
Two years before the next presidential election, the people who committed the actual violent acts have received due process and are in jail, the presidential candidate who inspired the insurrection has been disqualified from running again, and investigations are continuing of the members of the military, police, and bureaucracy who aided and abetted, and of the people in the shadows who bankrolled the whole thing. Searches and arrests are still being made. There are still appeals in process, some people may be let off, Bolsonaro even may be allowed to run again, but it would be hard to say that Brazil isn't in a better situation than the United States is after suffering a similar trauma.
Maybe a decisive group of Brazilian leaders value the rule of law so highly because quite a few of them can remember the period of the military dictatorship, from 1964 to 1985, when they suffered through not having it. I would hope that an experience like that one wouldn't be required; I guess we'll know in a month.
Do you think either side in Brazil's 1/8/23 insurrection was informed by the US insurrection of 1/6/21 and its aftermath? Was Bolsonaro inspired by Trump, and did his opponents learn from the mistakes of Garland?
Oh, yes, there's a LOT of cross-pollination between Trump World and Bolsonaro World. Bolsonaro and Trump are in sporadic contact and think highly of each other, but there's obviously a language barrier. Bolsonaro's third son, Eduardo, a member of the Chamber of Deputies, the lower house of the Brazilian Congress, is the main contact.
Eduardo has lived in the US, speaks fluent English, and is close to Steve Bannon. He is reported to be the South American representative in Bannon's Brussels-based Right Wing organization, The Movement. He also maintains contact with similar groups in Portugal, Spain, and throughout Ibero-America. Political exchanges between Brazil and Portugal are commonplace, but it's quite unusual for a Brazilian politician, especially a relatively low-level one, to include politicians in Spain and Brazil's Spanish-speaking neighbors in his active network: this is another way in which Eduardo Bolsonaro is different. He keeps a lower profile and less controversial than his father or his older brother Flávio, a federal senator, but is probably more influential, smarter, and obviously, very connected.
In Brazil both the courts and the Public Prosecutors are independent of the Executive, so they rather than Bolsonaro's political opponents led the response to the events of January 8, 2023. The President and Congress have mostly stayed out of the way, at least in public. At the time of the riot there was an ongoing investigation into organized disinformation -- the recent X ban was also related to this -- so the courts and the prosecutors were already mobilized. It would be unusual for Brazilian courts or prosecutors to comment on the actions of foreign counterparts, and except for occasional statements of solidarity with the US investigations, I don't think that they have. I think that the dispatch with which they've acted, though, speaks for itself.
*Crossposting this comment from Morning Shots comments as it is directly related to today's pod episode...*
The discussions around the tech oligarchy support for Trump misses some important context. While tax cuts and frustration with lefty "woke" culture may play a role, it is important to understand how much deregulation of AI and Blockchain (and by extension, crypto) plays into their decisions.
Marc Andreesen and his venture capital firm, Andreesen Horowitz (which has been described as a PR/Lobbying firm masquerading as a VC) have made massive investments in blockchain technology and crypto. Andreesen has given interviews in which he asserts that Web 3.0 will be based on blockchain (blockchain has uses outside of cryptocurrency, but crypto is the main driver of adoption). Additional massive investments are being made by Andreesen and other tech bro billionaires in AI technology. At the same time, they have openly called for a return to a robber baron economy -- when "makers" ruled and before the "managerial class" took over. Andreesen and Musk have compared themselves to Rockefeller and Morgan in interviews.
Trump was skeptical of crypto but is now fully on board and is even issuing his own currency. He has promised to replace Powell at the fed with a more crypto-friendly Chair. The government and agencies are just now struggling with how to regulate and put guardrails in place for AI adoption. Any regulation is an infringment on the goals of the tech ogliarchy. They've learned, just as Putin did on foreign policy, that Trump can be manipulated easily and provides the clearest path to unfettered power and money from these nascent technologies.
https://prospect.org/power/2024-04-24-my-dinner-with-andreessen/
The historian and journalist Rick Perlstein described his invitation to a meal at the Andreesens in a way that seemed literary and cinematic to me in all the ways he showed what these people are like and what they might portend for the rest of us.
Regarding Musk's comments about the 1st and 2nd Amendments, which are the only ones MAGAs know (and poorly), what struck me was that his comments were at the site Trump got shot. That shooting may not have been politically motivated, of course. But if Musk and Trump seize power and start cancelling our constitutional rights, they, too, shall experience the American ethos Musk spoke of so lightheartedly.
I’ll be honest, I’m not enjoying this election, but it didn’t bother me in the least that political pundits are. I don’t think for one moment Tim that you are on any side but on that of the angels. I don’t have CNN so I haven’t seen Kaitlin’s show, but I would guess she is pro-democracy.
On a less serious note, I would love a chance to look at all of the books on Bill’s shelves. I’m a (just) retired librarian. I can’t help myself.
Bill Kristol makes a good point that supporters of Israel should take note of. How exactly will Trump's American Isolationism policy and his decree that America will no longer participate in foreign wars go into effect if Iran launches a full scale war with Israel? Especially if Iran sees Trump's position as a weakness and an advantage to them?
Will Trump maintain his 'No foreign wars' stance or will he, as I expect, be the massive hypocrite we know he is, commit American troops to the conflict and facilitate what may actually may come to be 'World War III?
I suspect there is no way to answer your questions in advance because Trump himself doesn't know! He always seems to assume everything will turn out for the best, and if it doesn't, he trusts in his ability to wing it.
I just wanted to burst Tim's fantasy about 2028 (not that he really believes it can happen, but still). It would be wonderful to have two normal parties, but can anyone at this point really envision a world four years from now where Glen Youngkin is the Republican leader? He would have to do a JD Vance-level metamorphosis first. Clearly there has been an historic tectonic shift in Republican priorities across the board, brought on by a big plurality of entrenched aggrieved voters and their willing enablers. This shift won't just reverse itself if/when Trump loses. Notice how Nikki Haley endorsed Trump, as if it made perfect sense after all the bridge-burning things she said about him previously. The Republicans who haven't endorsed Trump are marginalized "RINOs". For the past nine years I thought a RINO was a non-Trumpist Republican, but they're just irrelevant Republicans now, it seems to me, literally in name only, with nothing else to identify themselves as Republicans. It's the Tucker/JD party, now and going forward. Possibly there will be DeSantis or someone like him running again as the sane option, because that's as sane as it gets now in the modern Republican party. Either you abandon your values like Haley, do semi-authentic MAGA cosplay like Ron, or become MAGAfied like JD and Tucker. Anyone of any note who doesn't abandon their values and suck up, or anyone even marginally less MAGA than Ron, not only didn't speak at this year's Republican convention, they didn't attend (or if they did, no one noticed or cared). The party certainly doesn't care one iota about their previous VP, nor their nominee before Trump and his VP pick, let alone former president Bush and VP Cheney. They’re all considered the past, disrespected and hated. None of this points towards Glen Youngkin, I'm afraid. Sorry Tim!
Which is good. I view Youngkin as a wolf in a sheep's skin Polartec vest. He is a dangerous phony.
I think after Trump there will be years of fighting within the Republican party about purging the MAGA elements (perhaps similar to what happened with the John Birch Society decades ago), and that’s where the Bulwark is probably going to shift its focus.
The tech bros think they can get to ai tech immortality after which the rest of humanity is superfluous. Don't look up.
Appreciate the context re: Caitlin banter. I got the joke, but cool that you care about your audience to share from the heart.
The Israel issue continues to dumbfound me. I'm a Jew from Los Angeles and have always been involved in the Jewish community and I have had a lot of trouble understanding why my fellow jews have seemed to gravitate towards Trump since last Oct 7th. Similar to what Bill noted when talking about Clinton, rhetoric is nice but especially in foreign policy, actions are far and away the most important and I am more than happy with the support the Biden/Harris administration has given both to jews fighting anti-semitism in America and also towards Israel as they fight this war. Yet what I have continued to notice is that a lot of friends (and I understand this is all anecdotal) are more concerned with lip service than they are with actual results and policy. They are more concerned with Biden/Harris "both sidesing" on occasion than they are with Billions more in aid that was sent. It seems as though because Biden is not "perfect", they are projecting their dreams as to how this scenario in the middle east be handled onto Trump for no reason other than he talks nice (even though he really doesn't). At this point, Biden could turn into Moses and part the mediterranean sea for them and they would still say Trump would do it better. It is unbelievable the amount of unwarranted confidence that is placed in himm.
"Yet what I have continued to notice is that a lot of friends . . . are more concerned with lip service than they are with actual results and policy."
I think that goes a long way towards explaining the whole Trump phenomenon. His supporters are willing to endure his incompetence and malfeasance because they care more about his own-the-libs rhetoric.
Tim - another thought about the last few minutes today. Once we're all livin' large in Harris/Walz term #1, there's an issue that will be serious to some folks more than others, even if MAGA mania were to subside and not take the form of violence. PTSD. I know folks who've already been highly stressed, emotionally shaken... we read about local officials, election volunteers, people receiving threats. Not to psychologize you, Tim, but your reflections today are valid - a central part of your identity will be missing once you no longer have to be in the (as Sarah says) "the keeping Trump out of office business."
Whole lotta healing gonna be needed. Let's remember that, be kind to each other, and to ourselves.
Tim--on your coda in this show: I heard that and I was OK with it and understood. But thanks for the respect to the audience. As for the post-Trump 2025 we're hoping for, what I am hoping for from the Bulwark, in addition to continued focus on Maga-ism, is to support this community that has been united around defeating *that* to being able to return to true civility in our politics. I like to think that a lot of us here have taken the lesson of what comes from hurling "Communist", "Socialist", "Fascist", "death panels", "nannie state", "war monger", "baby killer", etc epithets at each other has brought us.
There are thoughtful and intelligent people at the Bulwark, listening/reading the Bulwark, and contributing to the Bulwark. Can we do that when talking about government spending?
As someone who’s in a phase of life that’s bringing on significant changes, I really appreciated your comments, Tim, about the blend of anxiety and excitement that you feel about the future. One point I’m now certain of (wasn’t sure at the beginning), is that whatever the path might be, this community will hang together.
many German industrialists did support the Nazi Party, though their support was complex and motivated by various factors. Initially, some industrialists were skeptical of the Nazis due to the party’s anti-capitalist rhetoric in the early 1920s. However, by the late 1920s and early 1930s, a number of key industrialists began to view the Nazis as a bulwark against communism and socialism, which they feared would threaten their businesses and private property.
As Hitler and the Nazi Party gained political influence, industrialists were drawn to their promises of political stability, economic recovery, and anti-communist policies. Many companies and wealthy businessmen provided financial support to the Nazis, particularly during election campaigns. For example, figures like Fritz Thyssen, a prominent steel magnate, and Emil Kirdorf, a coal baron, were early financial backers of the Nazi movement.
After Hitler became chancellor in 1933, many industrialists benefited from Nazi policies. The regime’s focus on rearmament, autarky (economic self-sufficiency), and large public works projects, such as the construction of highways (Autobahn), created lucrative contracts for businesses. Industrialists also profited from the regime’s suppression of labor unions and its control over wages.
However, the relationship was not uniform across all sectors or business leaders. Some supported the Nazis more out of pragmatism or self-interest rather than ideological alignment, and a few resisted or were even persecuted by the regime, especially if they had Jewish roots or opposed Hitler’s plans. Nonetheless, many large companies and industrialists were deeply complicit in the regime’s actions, including the exploitation of forced labor during World War II. (ChatGPT). And, yes, ChatGPT has it right.
To me (just as a Democratic voter) its not so much that I don't take those with culturally conservative views as unserious. I get fusturated and sometimes angry that they don't seem to reconize that these issues have very high stakes for lots of people out there.
Tim, nice of you to take some time to talk about the feels of people who reacted to your conversation with Kaitlan Collins. It is a sensitive group of people in this country. This election is stressing me out, and I reject any form of optimism that Harris will win. We gotta stay mad, yo! THAT SAID, I thought your convo with Kaitlan was fine and made sense without today's extra explanation. If anyone thinks you're not taking this seriously enough, they just aren't listening. Feelers gonna feel.
I understand how you feel, Tim, about a possible end to Donald Trump in national politics. Opposition to Trump has built this coalition of Center Right Repubs/Independents to Center Left Dems (me.) that is The Bulwark. But...
If Harris wins, Trumpism/MAGA will go on. It is too big of a minority to fade away, IMO. The fight against MAGA will go on and so will The Bulwark and its anti-Trump coalition.
Note to Harris: reinforce the economic RISK posed by Trump. Explain how a 20% across-the-board Trump tariff will increase prices by 20%. If people understand this, many will change their vote from Trump to Harris.
* When a tariff is imposed, the importer has to pay more to bring the goods into the country. (This is apparently lost on Trump!)
* Importers will pass these increased costs onto consumers in the form of higher prices for the products they sell. (Inflationary!)
* Tariffs reduce competition from foreign producers, giving domestic producers more power to set higher prices. (Inflationary!)
QED!
As a bonus, explain why targeted tariffs are important. Answer: if a foreign country subsidizes a sector, making those products unfairly cheap, it will kill that sector in the US. Thus, unfair foreign subsidies are addressed with targeted tariffs, “leveling the playing field”.
There would not be a 1:1 correspondence between the tariff rate and price increases. It depends on too many factors that are hard to measure in advance. So, price increases overall would be less than 20%, although in some markets it could be even more than 20%.
Keep up the fight Tim! It won't really end with Trump's defeat, there are millions of voters that never engaged in politics until Trump came along. Republicans will be fighting for those voters and Trumpism will be alive for a few more cycles at least! See you in PIT!
Tim’s honesty is what sets him apart. ❣️
It felt like the end to me in 2020! But I totally get what you are saying Tim.
Me, a committed Democrat, earnestly looking forward to Bill Kristol every Monday. What strange bedfellows these admirable people have made. Glad to be on the same team as these honorable folks.
Also techbros hate women, as a cultural touchpoint. That's what makes a techbro a techbro (rather than a perfectly fine and sensible engineer that's a pleasure to work with, which most are). Particularly their mom. Forever.
That's something the tech bros have in common with Trump! There's nothing he hates more than a woman telling him no. That's probably a mommy issue.
Very deft, indeed! She controlled the conversation very respectfully and skillfully.
Thank you, Tim, as well, for your nuanced introspection on what comes after. The emotional crash is real for me after any big push, whether I win or lose. There is absolutely an anti-climax when the reason for being goes away. I, too, struggle with the ends of things. You did very well to take reactions to your comment about wanting the campaign to go on and make it into an important commentary on something many of us will be going through.
We will all need to reconfigure our "purpose" in any event.
Good for you for addressing the Collins matter. I was in that discussion on the sub, pointing out that you needed to give her space to be herself, not pounce on her like an adversary. Still, it's great that you took this issue head on. Well done!
I have to say I get very anti-immigrant every time I hear Musk's voice - can we send him back? Keep in mind he grew up in an authoritarian state in South Africa.
For '28, I think Tim might be on to something that Gregg Abott could be the GOP nominee.
Though as eugenic friendly as MAGA talking points are becoming I don't know if they would vote for somebody in a wheelchair.
Since according to Elon Musk, one must walk up a flight of stairs to be President.
Why are you all still on twitter? It's a Nazi bar at this point. Just stop going.
@Tim Miller
I appreciate when you break the 4th wall and address the audience directly.
IMHO it shows that you take the relationship between listener and podcast host seriously. I really appreciate that.
Thanks! I do !
And you surely know how much our Bulwark family uplifts us and galvanizes us for the work.
Great show, thanks! Have you invited Kamala to join you on your Bulwark tour? I think that would be so AWESOME!!!
Does anyone else feel there is a gathering storm, the hurricane excluded?
I was in a car dealership shuttle this morning and the shuttle driver was talking about another (!) global shutdown is being set up right now. Where everything is going to be shut down, you won’t be able to rely on the banks, computers, etc and we’ll all be sent back to the dark ages. He’s the second person I’ve heard a similar story from this summer. I have never heard this before, but the fact I heard it 2 Times is concerning.
Vance is a better standard bearer…and he’s very willing to step in after the Don loses (again). Now the science needs to determine regulation not politics…but sometimes the science has been wrong as with Hermann Mueller and his flawed LNT model which governs nuclear regulation….and crippled the industry costing billions.
Ha! I’m always the first to like. Glad to get my daily fix.
I would hv been in top 5, I pulled up the podcast but got distracted. I am balancing so much between reality and history. I need to watch fuzy feel good history pods just to escape the pending madness. Then I also read real books and picked up Anne Applebaum's book. It is scary, especially the fact I was witness to change in Venezula. The last time I visited, was the Chavez's coup in early 2000's. To see the Bolivarian socialism sends chills down my spine. Especially how Venezuela tanked after I left. So yes I am balancing quite a few things for reading history, witnessing history and getting nervous about our present politics.
Deep breaths and trust in goodness. 💙💙