1. One problem in WI is Barnes has progressive senators rallying for him giving him even more visibility. Where are the senators rallying for Other 2 Dem candidates either of whom could win- at least have a chance. All the info is that Barnes can’t win in WI. Dems need to wake up.
2. Don’t believe Walker can win. How could that be? Insane.
3. The above implies that the GOP will pick up AZ? No not happening. Where’s that coming from?
I can't believe I live in a country where a Herschel Walker can be a U.S Senator. Then again there's a Lauren Boebert, MTG and a Cawthorn among others. Short of Jesus saying vote for a sane Democrat i haven't seen any Democratic message that can get through. There really isn't a bottom.
I've heard of him from his initial run and getting elected. I believe the Democratic Party is the sane party. We don't have the equivalent of the rogues gallery I mentioned. I don't know why a Herschel Walker isn't any worse in my mind than any number of Republicans running in the upcoming primaries. It seems it's getting worse on the right not better. It's just unbelievable that we have so many unserious people in government and running to be in government. The right has been told for 40 plus years government is the problem, they then vote in these buffoons and sabotage said government. The result is confirmation! which is crazy since you VOTED for THIS . SMH...I think we discussed before GenZ otw to bring us back. But I fear with a out of control Supreme Court destroying voting rights and republican legislatures further eroding voting it won't be enough.. this is going to be a long slog. There isn't reasoning or use of critical thinking going on the other side to think this is going to be ok
Agree it's gonna be a long slog. Will Gen Z arrive in time? Don't know. (Will I be here for it?
Don't know.) But here's something someone said to me long ago about the future, referencing the Bible: The Red Sea didn't part until the Israelites got to it, and not a moment before. I don't usually reference scripture, but feel free to make of that what you will.
My comments are off topic so apologies, it's that my burgeoning obsession with fighting back has got me going. I get emails from Indivisible - an entity formed to fight Trumpism. Today's email clarified for me what had been swirling thoughtlings and gave them structure. So I want to pass along a summary.
The Republican Propaganda Machine does this:
1. Picks a strategic fight locally that is emotionally resonant. For instance what your children are taught in school. (CRT)
2. Amplifies the fight on all platforms all the time in all places. Fox, etc.
3. Spreads the fight to mainstream. If there's a fight other media will pick it up...if it bleeds it leads.
And there you have it. Insert grooming, gay, marriage, or whatever they come up with next (I'm thinking it'll soon be Dems raid graveyards at midnight to engage in demonic ritual) and repeat.
Shouldn't dems be able to create their own template to counter this? It's not really that complicated.
Thanks Tim Miller, you are fun to read and watch and won't you please consider coming up with a plan to fight back smart and 21st century?
Some of them try, but point two on that is a lot more difficult for the left. Having Fox News to set the terms of the debate makes a big difference, because it means that the activists have that much less work to do to make their slogans resonate.
why leave it only to wife beater? I don’t remember where I heard it but it was public knowledge from Walker that he has a definitive diagnosis of multiple personality disorder (but it’s called something else now). This seems really dangerous.
-300 seems a little high too me. I know it’s all about enthusiasm, but Trump is not on the ballot. I know he’ll probably be campaigning pretty hard in the Fall, but that will depend on how his candidates are polling. If Oz isn’t polling well, expect Trump to pretend he doesn’t know the guy. Fealty to Trump can only go so far.
Im pretty negative, but I think the odds of holding the Senate are not that bad. The house may be a foregone conclusion, but there is a glimmer of hope there. Because of Democratic gerrymandering the scales look relatively balanced. Inflation will be the biggest issue, and yes, Democrats will likely lose. However, there may not be a “bloodbath” because that’s hard to do with the new maps. Republicans may only end up with a 10 seat majority, and that may be small enough to stave off impeachment, for example. The Senate is far more important, because a Democratic White House and Senate can still confirm judges. Current odds on Republicans taking the house are -600. Keep in mind that just means having just one more seat than the other party.
My goodness, that people would rather vote for an abuser and idiot like Walker over an educated, religious pastor like Senator Warnock- whose passionate defense of voting rights in his Senate speeches are spectacular and moving- makes me despair.
As Tom Nichols has said, we are a seriously unserious people. It seems as though at least one-half of the country would rather vote for someone who can entertain, as opposed to someone who is interested in governing.
People who answer the phone for pollsters don't necessarily represent actual people and should probably come with an appropriate disclaimer to that effect. Sen. Warnock's major advantage is having Stacey Abrams on the ballot, even if she doesn't manage to beat Kemp. Her organizing and vote generating energy put him over once and, even in football crazy GA, should do it again when push comes to shove.
Republicans take the house with at least 25 seats and probably 30. Senate, 2- 3 seat majority maybe five. Filibuster abolished by the vernal equinox. All out Hunter Biden corruption all day all the time and Biden impeached by Memorial Day. If the Republican senate by five, certain democratic senators should hire security guards leading up to the senate trial. Proceedings against Kamala Harris 50-50 chance. With the Republicans in both chambers, and their legislatures controlling 330 electoral votes, regardless of the actual 2024 vote totals -- which the Republicans will very likely win legitimately -- the Republican presidential candidate unless he dies a week before the election will be installed and if Trump the US will be out of NATO while the daffodils are still in bloom. After that, hiring and promotion for every post in government and the military -- the IRS, the Defense department, Commerce, and especially the Justice Department -- will be according to political reliability and probably also willingness to pay for opportunities of graft. Federal contracts and research grants will be awarded to firms and institutions by willingness to purge non-reliable staff and faculty.
Last time we had Trump boat parades. Summer and fall of 2024 will see all these and pickup truck parades by armed militia.
More like the East Germany of my childhood if we are lucky, Romania under Ceaucescu if we arent, but run like a combination of one of those with a narco cartel.
Why would the GOP Senate do away with the filibuster without holding the Presidency? The filibuster isn't what's keeping them from removing Biden in your prediction.
Depends on where they want to go. If I am right, America has crossed a Rubicon into kleptocratic thugocracy, and the filibuster, formerly beloved of the right, will be defenestrated onto the dungheap of history.
Through most of my lifetime, the traditional right revered the filibuster because it was their surety of safety as a numerical and political minority. With the filibuster, the solid South successfully sustained its one-party white supremacist regime. Since the civil rights era, the filibuster has been an increasingly important tool to protect an array of minority interests and block efforts at reform or change. It has occasionally been used by the center and center left, but the vast preponderance of benefit has accrued to the right side of the spectrum in general, and to the furthest right elements in particular.
So, you ask, why then would the Republican party want to do away with it?
The answer is -- the value of such a tool lies in its power to resist change while also agreeing to allow one's opponents a voice in the debate and a seat at the table. If one's aims are to prevent change, but do not extend to killing and jailing one's opposition, one is happy to have the polity stymied by such curiosities as filibusters. This has been the default preference of the center right, and even the deep right, ever since WWII. After all it's been the center left and strong left that have wanted to alter the settled order of things. The filibuster applies to everyone alike. If you aren't trying to make major alterations in the settled order of things, it's not a real problem if you let your opposition box you in once in a while. Nine out of ten times it's a winner for you. It's a one-way ratchet with all the leverage in your favor.
If, however, you decide you really do want to make serious modifications to the way things are, something that promotes stasis becomes an impediment rather than a blessing. And if you also now want not only to stymie your opponent, but actually destroy him, the impediment mutates from problem to threat.
It seems clear to me that the Republican base, and objectively its elected officeholders, no longer believe in or want an America where the rule of law constrains them. They may not yet be entirely aware of this yet, but a population that wants to overthrow electoral democracy, and yearns in its heart for a de facto white supremacist blood and soil ethnic minority-majority society, no longer needs or wants restraints like the filibuster available to its enemies.
We are probably going to see two years of increasing hysteria from the legislative branch. Whether they formally do away with the filibuster rule during this session or not depends on whether they start on a legislative agenda to complement their rage agenda.
The next administration, whether it's Trump or DeSantis or one of the other aspiring Mussolinis/Francos/Ordobans, will need a legislative agenda to permanently consolidate power. They'll want to federalize the leprous epidemic of vigilante revanchist culture war legislation now boiling out of state legislatures. They will want to suppress access to the ballot at the federal as well as state levels. They will want laws to complete takeover of the military, the Justice department, the IRS, and all the various Federal entities by their henchmen. They will want legislation to tie federal contracting and grants to cooperation with the regime. They will want broader arrest and detention powers. They will want to give law enforcement at all levels expanded authority to collect and use data on citizens' political as well as economic and legal activity and beliefs. The list goes on.
For these reasons the filibuster will not exist in future. There may be some ceremonial vestige such as the "Black Rod" ritual at the start of Parliament in Britain, but as a functional institution it will terminate next January when McConnell becomes majority leader.
The GOP will not do away with the filibuster before 2024 at the earliest. There is zero chance of it happening, short of the President and VP dying in office while the Republicans hold both houses of Congress and a Republican Speaker taking over. They derive no benefit from having it gone, because without a President, anything they pass can be vetoed, and they run the risk of Democrats taking total control of both branches and gaining compete control.
Even with a GOP Presidency, there's nothing McConnell wants to do except pass tax cuts for the rich and confirm Republican judges, neither of which is affected by the filibuster.
Hmm, I really, really hated A Little Life, found it so overrated, the life paths of the characters utterly unbelievable, the novel histrionic rather than any kind of complex, subtle, or rich. Is To Paradise better? And please know I have very broad tastes in what I read and take the literary leap of faith routinely and happily. I am convinced that some novels get great press and reviews, solely because the subject matter seems untouchable (e.g., see The Personal Librarian, which is about a fascinating subject in history but laughably bad) or the author is already ensconced among the literati, socially (see, The Emperor’s Children).
"the voters’ “doubts” should be taken seriously."
This kills me every time I see or hear it, because you know which voters the GOP thinks shouldn't be taken seriously? The ones who voted for Biden!!
You hate to see it. https://tenor.com/bA0ad.gif
1. One problem in WI is Barnes has progressive senators rallying for him giving him even more visibility. Where are the senators rallying for Other 2 Dem candidates either of whom could win- at least have a chance. All the info is that Barnes can’t win in WI. Dems need to wake up.
2. Don’t believe Walker can win. How could that be? Insane.
3. The above implies that the GOP will pick up AZ? No not happening. Where’s that coming from?
I can't believe I live in a country where a Herschel Walker can be a U.S Senator. Then again there's a Lauren Boebert, MTG and a Cawthorn among others. Short of Jesus saying vote for a sane Democrat i haven't seen any Democratic message that can get through. There really isn't a bottom.
Conor Lamb is a sane Dem. See the Quick Hits section of this newsletter.
I've heard of him from his initial run and getting elected. I believe the Democratic Party is the sane party. We don't have the equivalent of the rogues gallery I mentioned. I don't know why a Herschel Walker isn't any worse in my mind than any number of Republicans running in the upcoming primaries. It seems it's getting worse on the right not better. It's just unbelievable that we have so many unserious people in government and running to be in government. The right has been told for 40 plus years government is the problem, they then vote in these buffoons and sabotage said government. The result is confirmation! which is crazy since you VOTED for THIS . SMH...I think we discussed before GenZ otw to bring us back. But I fear with a out of control Supreme Court destroying voting rights and republican legislatures further eroding voting it won't be enough.. this is going to be a long slog. There isn't reasoning or use of critical thinking going on the other side to think this is going to be ok
Agree it's gonna be a long slog. Will Gen Z arrive in time? Don't know. (Will I be here for it?
Don't know.) But here's something someone said to me long ago about the future, referencing the Bible: The Red Sea didn't part until the Israelites got to it, and not a moment before. I don't usually reference scripture, but feel free to make of that what you will.
My comments are off topic so apologies, it's that my burgeoning obsession with fighting back has got me going. I get emails from Indivisible - an entity formed to fight Trumpism. Today's email clarified for me what had been swirling thoughtlings and gave them structure. So I want to pass along a summary.
The Republican Propaganda Machine does this:
1. Picks a strategic fight locally that is emotionally resonant. For instance what your children are taught in school. (CRT)
2. Amplifies the fight on all platforms all the time in all places. Fox, etc.
3. Spreads the fight to mainstream. If there's a fight other media will pick it up...if it bleeds it leads.
And there you have it. Insert grooming, gay, marriage, or whatever they come up with next (I'm thinking it'll soon be Dems raid graveyards at midnight to engage in demonic ritual) and repeat.
Shouldn't dems be able to create their own template to counter this? It's not really that complicated.
Thanks Tim Miller, you are fun to read and watch and won't you please consider coming up with a plan to fight back smart and 21st century?
Some of them try, but point two on that is a lot more difficult for the left. Having Fox News to set the terms of the debate makes a big difference, because it means that the activists have that much less work to do to make their slogans resonate.
Pro-Warnock PACs are going to raise a boatload of money and spend it flooding the airwaves with ads about Herschel Walker being a woman-beater.
Do we think Walker’s lead holds up to that? I hope not, but as JVL says, we do live in the worst possible timeline…
It just is mind blowing that Georgians would eject a pretty moral, intelligent and stand up guy like Warnock for Walker.
Doesn't it seem a little late in the game? After he takes the lead??
Republican primary isn't over yet. General election messaging doesn't usually start until after the primaries.
I hope not too! I just wanted to wake people up to the polling reality as things stand.
why leave it only to wife beater? I don’t remember where I heard it but it was public knowledge from Walker that he has a definitive diagnosis of multiple personality disorder (but it’s called something else now). This seems really dangerous.
Multiple personality disorder is now known as dissociative identity disorder.
And strong agree: GA voters should know about his lies about his academic record, etc.
Shouldn't Dina Powell be somewhere with a stake in her heart?
-300 seems a little high too me. I know it’s all about enthusiasm, but Trump is not on the ballot. I know he’ll probably be campaigning pretty hard in the Fall, but that will depend on how his candidates are polling. If Oz isn’t polling well, expect Trump to pretend he doesn’t know the guy. Fealty to Trump can only go so far.
Im pretty negative, but I think the odds of holding the Senate are not that bad. The house may be a foregone conclusion, but there is a glimmer of hope there. Because of Democratic gerrymandering the scales look relatively balanced. Inflation will be the biggest issue, and yes, Democrats will likely lose. However, there may not be a “bloodbath” because that’s hard to do with the new maps. Republicans may only end up with a 10 seat majority, and that may be small enough to stave off impeachment, for example. The Senate is far more important, because a Democratic White House and Senate can still confirm judges. Current odds on Republicans taking the house are -600. Keep in mind that just means having just one more seat than the other party.
My goodness, that people would rather vote for an abuser and idiot like Walker over an educated, religious pastor like Senator Warnock- whose passionate defense of voting rights in his Senate speeches are spectacular and moving- makes me despair.
As Tom Nichols has said, we are a seriously unserious people. It seems as though at least one-half of the country would rather vote for someone who can entertain, as opposed to someone who is interested in governing.
Yes, and who hates the Libs. That is highly motivating.
People who answer the phone for pollsters don't necessarily represent actual people and should probably come with an appropriate disclaimer to that effect. Sen. Warnock's major advantage is having Stacey Abrams on the ballot, even if she doesn't manage to beat Kemp. Her organizing and vote generating energy put him over once and, even in football crazy GA, should do it again when push comes to shove.
True enough, polls have burned us enough by now. Fingers crossed
I sure hope so. I live in Ga and it's been so nice to have Rev. Warnock as my senator. The thought of Walker taking his place makes me ill.
Republicans take the house with at least 25 seats and probably 30. Senate, 2- 3 seat majority maybe five. Filibuster abolished by the vernal equinox. All out Hunter Biden corruption all day all the time and Biden impeached by Memorial Day. If the Republican senate by five, certain democratic senators should hire security guards leading up to the senate trial. Proceedings against Kamala Harris 50-50 chance. With the Republicans in both chambers, and their legislatures controlling 330 electoral votes, regardless of the actual 2024 vote totals -- which the Republicans will very likely win legitimately -- the Republican presidential candidate unless he dies a week before the election will be installed and if Trump the US will be out of NATO while the daffodils are still in bloom. After that, hiring and promotion for every post in government and the military -- the IRS, the Defense department, Commerce, and especially the Justice Department -- will be according to political reliability and probably also willingness to pay for opportunities of graft. Federal contracts and research grants will be awarded to firms and institutions by willingness to purge non-reliable staff and faculty.
Last time we had Trump boat parades. Summer and fall of 2024 will see all these and pickup truck parades by armed militia.
it will be Afghanistan and the Taliban!
More like the East Germany of my childhood if we are lucky, Romania under Ceaucescu if we arent, but run like a combination of one of those with a narco cartel.
Why would the GOP Senate do away with the filibuster without holding the Presidency? The filibuster isn't what's keeping them from removing Biden in your prediction.
Depends on where they want to go. If I am right, America has crossed a Rubicon into kleptocratic thugocracy, and the filibuster, formerly beloved of the right, will be defenestrated onto the dungheap of history.
Through most of my lifetime, the traditional right revered the filibuster because it was their surety of safety as a numerical and political minority. With the filibuster, the solid South successfully sustained its one-party white supremacist regime. Since the civil rights era, the filibuster has been an increasingly important tool to protect an array of minority interests and block efforts at reform or change. It has occasionally been used by the center and center left, but the vast preponderance of benefit has accrued to the right side of the spectrum in general, and to the furthest right elements in particular.
So, you ask, why then would the Republican party want to do away with it?
The answer is -- the value of such a tool lies in its power to resist change while also agreeing to allow one's opponents a voice in the debate and a seat at the table. If one's aims are to prevent change, but do not extend to killing and jailing one's opposition, one is happy to have the polity stymied by such curiosities as filibusters. This has been the default preference of the center right, and even the deep right, ever since WWII. After all it's been the center left and strong left that have wanted to alter the settled order of things. The filibuster applies to everyone alike. If you aren't trying to make major alterations in the settled order of things, it's not a real problem if you let your opposition box you in once in a while. Nine out of ten times it's a winner for you. It's a one-way ratchet with all the leverage in your favor.
If, however, you decide you really do want to make serious modifications to the way things are, something that promotes stasis becomes an impediment rather than a blessing. And if you also now want not only to stymie your opponent, but actually destroy him, the impediment mutates from problem to threat.
It seems clear to me that the Republican base, and objectively its elected officeholders, no longer believe in or want an America where the rule of law constrains them. They may not yet be entirely aware of this yet, but a population that wants to overthrow electoral democracy, and yearns in its heart for a de facto white supremacist blood and soil ethnic minority-majority society, no longer needs or wants restraints like the filibuster available to its enemies.
We are probably going to see two years of increasing hysteria from the legislative branch. Whether they formally do away with the filibuster rule during this session or not depends on whether they start on a legislative agenda to complement their rage agenda.
The next administration, whether it's Trump or DeSantis or one of the other aspiring Mussolinis/Francos/Ordobans, will need a legislative agenda to permanently consolidate power. They'll want to federalize the leprous epidemic of vigilante revanchist culture war legislation now boiling out of state legislatures. They will want to suppress access to the ballot at the federal as well as state levels. They will want laws to complete takeover of the military, the Justice department, the IRS, and all the various Federal entities by their henchmen. They will want legislation to tie federal contracting and grants to cooperation with the regime. They will want broader arrest and detention powers. They will want to give law enforcement at all levels expanded authority to collect and use data on citizens' political as well as economic and legal activity and beliefs. The list goes on.
For these reasons the filibuster will not exist in future. There may be some ceremonial vestige such as the "Black Rod" ritual at the start of Parliament in Britain, but as a functional institution it will terminate next January when McConnell becomes majority leader.
The GOP will not do away with the filibuster before 2024 at the earliest. There is zero chance of it happening, short of the President and VP dying in office while the Republicans hold both houses of Congress and a Republican Speaker taking over. They derive no benefit from having it gone, because without a President, anything they pass can be vetoed, and they run the risk of Democrats taking total control of both branches and gaining compete control.
Even with a GOP Presidency, there's nothing McConnell wants to do except pass tax cuts for the rich and confirm Republican judges, neither of which is affected by the filibuster.
Hmm, I really, really hated A Little Life, found it so overrated, the life paths of the characters utterly unbelievable, the novel histrionic rather than any kind of complex, subtle, or rich. Is To Paradise better? And please know I have very broad tastes in what I read and take the literary leap of faith routinely and happily. I am convinced that some novels get great press and reviews, solely because the subject matter seems untouchable (e.g., see The Personal Librarian, which is about a fascinating subject in history but laughably bad) or the author is already ensconced among the literati, socially (see, The Emperor’s Children).
I hated The Emperor's Children but was obsessed with A Little Life so hard to know how aligned we are and hard for me to judge To Paradise against it.
Ha, fair enough! This is why book club’s are fun. Am very willing to give it a go.
If Dems can't make fun of Dr. Oz, they are really finished. This is the real test.
Yay, Tim is standing in for JVL, and as always, a crackin' good read
I think I agree with Tim about 33% of the time. But nobody makes me laugh like he does.
The video of him trash talking Trump is hall of fame material, and something I would totally expect from a LSU alumni.
Gig ‘em, Tim. Good article.
LOL!
you are welcome!