Ten Years of Trump–With a Bit of Light Ahead
It’s been a dark decade since he descended down that escalator. But there are signs of resistance and clear opportunities for more.
It may be true that Stephen Miller is a “world-class hater” driven by “bile” rather than “brains,” but if you report for ABC News, you’re apparently not allowed to say it. The network’s former star Terry Moran—fired last week for what the network called “a clear violation of ABC News policies” and we call “a pretty good tweet”—will join Tim this morning at 10 a.m. EDT for a live Substack chat. Should be a good time! Happy Monday.
Ten Years In
by William Kristol
It was ten years ago today, on June 16, 2015, that Donald Trump descended the gilded escalator at Trump Tower to announce his candidacy for the presidency. It’s a melancholy anniversary. The damage that’s been done to the country over this past decade has been very great—as great as (if not greater than) we original Never Trumpers feared.
And the damage isn’t over. Trump’s second term is only one-tenth done. There will be more destruction of the institutions of our government, more degradation of the spirit of our democracy, ahead. Repairing and rebuilding, or building anew, will be a massive task.
Still, I hope I’m not being delusional this Monday morning, looking back on such a tumultuous week, to feel some reasons for hope.
Why?
Trump’s military parade Saturday was a flop. And not just in failing to draw many viewers to Washington. But because, as both the appearance of the parade and reports from within the military suggest, neither the soldiers forced to trudge down Constitution Avenue nor their senior officers forced to organize the event seemed to have any enthusiasm for Trump’s spectacle.
More broadly, it seems that there is resistance in the military for Trump’s project of politicizing it. People who are in much closer touch with active duty service members than I told me how many of their friends privately expressed distaste for the spectacle and what it signified.
You can see the fissures elsewhere. Just contrast the pathetic posturing of Trump’s Secretary of Defense, Pete Hegseth, in his testimony before Congress this week with the dignified bearing and careful statements of the new chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Dan Caine. Gen. Caine was careful to reiterate the importance of the non-political status of the military, and made clear when asked that the presence of immigrants in the United States was not an “invasion.” And he did so while sitting right next to Hegseth.
I think the U.S. military might well hold despite Trump’s and Hegseth’s attempt to politicize it. Perhaps that guardrail against Trump’s project of usurpation has even been strengthened by a kind of revulsion at what they’ve seen over the last week, from the unnecessary deployment to the streets of Los Angeles to Trump’s unseemly speech at Fort Bragg to what Michael Wood, a young Marine combat veteran from Texas, called on X “this silly Belarus-style parade.”
If Saturday’s parade was a failure, the “No Kings” rallies were a success. Organizers estimate 5 million people may well have participated in them. Judging from the one I attended, and also from reports from many others, the mood was at once defiant and upbeat. There was anger but also hope. Homemade signs mocking Trump were side-by-side with American flags showing loyalty to the country. A broad coalition of citizens against usurpation turned out.
Someone at our local protest asked me, “How do we keep this going?” It’s a good and important question, and it’s one that stuck in my mind all weekend. It occurs to me that one small way to keep the spirit of resistance alive and focused might be to emphasize the celebration of our 250th birthday as a nation.
As his parade Saturday suggests, Trump and his apparatchiks will try to hijack the observances of the 250th anniversary. They’ll try to turn it into a celebration of the fever dreams of MAGA, not a celebration of the real American dream. But 1776 really was a rebellion against a king on behalf of natural rights and self-government. It really did lead to a nation of immigrants whose flourishing was made possible by a common dedication to the principles of the Declaration.
The Trump administration will seek to create its own narrative for 2026. What will be needed in contrast is thousands of grassroots, non-governmental efforts to reflect on and celebrate the true meaning of the Declaration.
Looking at aerial photos of the massive “No Kings” protest in Philadelphia, I thought of the founding of this republic and of Independence Hall, the room where it happened. And I also couldn’t help but think of Abraham Lincoln’s impromptu remarks at that site on Feb. 22, 1861, as he made his way from Springfield, Illinois to Washington D.C. to assume the burdens of the presidency.
I have often inquired of myself, what great principle or idea it was that kept this Confederacy so long together. It was not the mere matter of the separation of the Colonies from the motherland; but that sentiment in the Declaration of Independence which gave liberty, not alone to the people of this country, but, I hope, to the world, for all future time. It was that which gave promise that in due time the weight would be lifted from the shoulders of all men. This is a sentiment embodied in the Declaration of Independence.
It’s a sentiment that, despite all the depredations of the last decade, still seems to me surprisingly alive and well today.
Violence and Heroism in Minnesota
by Andrew Egger
It’s a sickening spectacle, and now a common one. Some wretched act of political violence occurs, and within moments the internet jabberers are swarming all over it like ants, searching for clues to the all-important question: Is the attacker one of ours? If he is, then he’s just some nut job and they are evilly politicizing a random tragedy. But if he’s one of theirs, he’s the latest exemplar of their taste for chaos and bloodshed. Wash, rinse, repeat.
This weekend, two Democratic state lawmakers in Minnesota, along with members of their families, were shot in separate attacks by a gunman who was, thankfully, apprehended this morning. Rep. Melissa Hortman and her husband Mark were killed. Rep. John Hoffman and his wife Yvette were badly wounded—John was shot nine times, Yvette eight—but both are expected to survive.
As the news broke, posters rushed to battle stations. The right-wing messaging apparatus in particular lurched quickly into effect. Within hours, everyone from Elon Musk on down had seized on the alleged gunman’s past appointment to a political commission by Gov. Tim Walz to pontificate about how—in Musk’s words—“the far left is murderously violent.” Others across the aisle noted that the attacker had previously registered to vote as a Republican, that he had followed conservative groups on Facebook, and that his roommate had described him to reporters as a Trump supporter.
More information about the guy’s political beliefs and motivations will doubtless come to light. But the point I want to make is what a sick exercise this whole spectacle is.
It’s not impossible to imagine a world where outbreaks of political violence function as a wake-up call for people to consider the consequences of a political ecosystem dripping with so much partisan hate. Instead, these tragedies are instantly subsumed into the hate machine themselves. We lose appreciation for what matters because we become consumed with who gets or avoids culpability. Our attention moves to the craziest voice (see Lee, Mike) rather than the people who deserve it.
Yvette Hoffman, who was shot but is expected to survive, is the wife of a state lawmaker. She is not a well-known figure. But she should be. Local NBC affiliate KARE 11 reported of the attack: “The Hoffmans’ daughter was home at the time, and during the shooting, Yvette threw herself on top of her. The daughter was not hit.”
That’s heroism under unimaginable circumstances. Social media always wants to make the gunman the main character of a shooting. We’d all be better off to focus on lifting up Yvette Hoffman.
What Bibi Wants
by Will Selber
Over the weekend, the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF), aided by American forces in the region, launched waves of Israeli Air Force (IAF) air strikes and Mossad-led covert activities that demolished Iran’s antiquated integrated air defense network while simultaneously damaging both Iran’s Natanz and Isfahan nuclear sites.
While the attacks have yet to damage Iran’s Fordow Enrichment Plant, they’ve been impressive in other ways. The IDF and Mossad decimated Iran’s senior military ranks and killed at least nine nuclear scientists. Although Iran continues to launch ballistic missiles at Israel, 90 percent of them have been intercepted. In less than 96 hours, Operation Rising Lion has left many experts speculating if Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin’s ultimate goal is regime change in Tehran.
Although Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar stated over the weekend that regime change was not Israel’s goal, Bibi was more coy. The prime minister reiterated that Israel’s goal was to dismantle Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs but also directly appealed to the Iranian people to “stand up to the regime.”
However, for regime change to occur, the IDF would need to target not only senior Iranian military leaders but also the Basij, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, and its regular conventional army, which is the face of the regime inside Iran. While there are some anti-Iranian forces inside of Iran, the lack of unity between them has historically hindered a viable alternative.
Bibi has been faced with similar choices before. He hit the brakes after the IDF decimated Hezbollah last fall. Would he really be trying for regime change now? Unless President Trump supports such a cause, it’s unlikely.
Over the past twenty years, western observers have repeatedly been tantalized by the prospects for change in the region. As in the past, the west would struggle mightily to shape a post-Khamenei Iran. In reality, only the Iranian people have the power to overthrow the regime. Despite the regime’s significant economic and military struggles compared to its regional counterparts, it has been remarkably successful in one aspect: maintaining its grip on power.
AROUND THE BULWARK
From sidelining respected generals to ignoring court orders… On The Bulwark on Sunday, REP. SETH MOULTON joins BILL KRISTOL explains why this moment is a breaking point for the military’s nonpartisan tradition.
How the Military Can Regain Public Trust… The armed forces can only be successful if they maintain broad, non-partisan support, explains GEN. MARK HERTLING.
What Will Happen to the Republican Party Post-Trump? On the last episode of The Michael Steele Show before it goes on hiatus, MICHAEL STEELE speaks with three Republicans who are working to revive a party that has disintegrated through division. WA GOP Chairman CHRIS VANCE, former Congresswoman BARBARA COMSTOCK, and former Congressman CHARLIE DENT join the podcast to discuss how the GOP has devolved under MAGA and what it will look like in 20 years.
Trump’s North Korean Dictator Moment… On How to Fix It, REP. DAN GOLDMAN joins JOHN AVLON for an urgent conversation about democracy, corruption, and creeping authoritarianism.
Quick Hits
YOU DON’T HEAR ABOUT SANCTUARY CITIES IN OUR HEARTLAND!: The president had a messaging problem: He’d just announced major rollbacks to his immigration-enforcement campaign as an explicit favor to farms and hotels that rely on illegal immigrant labor. So how to reassure his base that he’s still based on mass deportation?
Easy: Just ramp up the overt politicization of the issue.
In an evening Truth Social post yesterday, the president ordered ICE to juice its mass-deportation efforts in “America’s largest Cities, such as Los Angeles, Chicago, and New York, where Millions upon Millions of illegal Aliens reside.”
Why these places in particular? Trump didn’t bother hiding the ball:
These, and other cities, are the core of the Democrat Power Center, where they use Illegal Aliens to expand their Voter Base, cheat in Elections, and grow the Welfare State, robbing good paying Jobs and Benefits from Hardworking American Citizens. These Radical Left Democrats are sick of mind, hate our Country, and actually want to destroy our Inner Cities—And they are doing a good job of it! There is something wrong with them. That is why they believe in Open Borders, Transgender for Everybody, and Men playing in Women’s Sports—And that is why I want ICE, Border Patrol, and our Great and Patriotic Law Enforcement Officers, to FOCUS on our crime ridden and deadly Inner Cities, and those places where Sanctuary Cities play such a big role. You don’t hear about Sanctuary Cities in our Heartland!
Most of this is pure Breitbart-comments-section lunacy—Democrats are deploying illegal immigrants to infest our “Inner Cities” and trans our kids!!—but there’s a certain twisted political logic on display too. Trump has apparently just discovered what the rest of us have been saying all along: That because large parts of our economy benefit from migrant labor, mass deportations would come with major economic costs. So, okay, the president reasons. We’ll just make sure those costs are concentrated in blue cities from now on.
VIBE RE-SHIFT?: The weekend’s “No Kings” protests were a powerful display of mass mobilization against President Trump’s autocratic ambitions. They were also a reminder of the perils of vibes-based political analysis.
After all, the conventional wisdom a few months ago was that Donald Trump’s reelection had ushered in a world-historical vibe shift, and that Trump’s opponents would be too shocked and demoralized this time around to put up much of a fight.
What a difference a few months can make! If anything, as our Lauren Egan noted yesterday in The Opposition, resistance efforts against Trump are larger than last time.
Over at Strength in Numbers, data journalist G. Elliott Morris takes an admirable stab at synthesizing various data streams to give a rough estimate of 4–6 million people who attended a “No Kings” event somewhere in the country this weekend. That would pencil out to be 1.2–1.8 percent of the U.S. population, challenging the 2017 Women’s March for the crown of the biggest single-day protest in American history.
All this is doubtless psychologically destabilizing for the president and psychologically reassuring to his opponents, which is all to the good. But it’s more than that too. Trump’s baseline pitch for his second presidency is that he should be allowed to sweep aside all laws and institutions that hem him in because his reelection imbued him personally with the collective will of The People. This weekend, The People registered a different opinion.
Cheap Shots
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Thank you for highlighting Yvette - she is a true hero! Prayers to her & her husband for a full recovery!!
An ignominious anniversary for sure.
“To argue with a man who has renounced the use and authority of reason, and whose philosophy consists in holding humanity in contempt, is like administering medicine to the dead, or endeavoring to convert an atheist by scripture.” - Thomas Paine