We may have been conditioned to just accept candidates who share their meandering thoughts or end sentences with 'anyway.' But Kamala Harris is delivering a big upgrade, and showing how a good political speech gets done. Meanwhile, what would Kamala's winning coalition—and her path to 270—look like? Plus, Trump may be having some buyer's remorse over JD Vance. Ron Brownstein and Sam Stein join Tim Miller.
show notes:
Ron's piece on Kamala's path to 270
Sam's piece on how the Dems got their shit together
I think you guys (and most of the mainstream media) are missing something about who actually selected JD Vance for VP - he's a Leonard Leo, Heritage Foundation, Project 2025 pick. After what Leo has done with the SCOTUS via the FedSoc, don't underestimate his long range goal with the Teneo Network.
I think you are greatly overestimating the impact Trump's sons have on Trump too. Unless Donnie Jr recognized JD was a douche bag and hoped Daddy will finally choose him instead as Election Day gets closer..
This was great! Thanks Tim!
I’m from MN. We need Walz here. He has advanced an amazing progressive yet practical agenda. You would love to have a beer with him. Come to MN for a live show and do it. Interview.
His crowds: former HS teacher, national guard, US house representative in red district, salt of the earth guy.
If you come to MN, I will bring friends to the show and would love to show you the sights in the Twin Cities!
She'll win Georgia.
@Tim: The funny thing about Trump pissing on stage would ACTUALLY be that half his supporters would say that he was well-hydrated, but the other half would say that his beautiful golden stream proved that he can produce ureic acid in the most manly way possible.
If challenged on a joint panel, both sides would ADAMANTLY aver, with straight faces and righteously indignant anger, that there was no disagreement between them.
Sort of surprised that there is not more discussion of NE-2. If AZ, GA and NV don't come through little old lightly-polled Omaha decides the fate of the world. It's a little ridiculous but that last EV could matter a lot.
Sounds like JD Vance didn’t get the memo about Mountain Dew
https://youtu.be/nf10nmUuyTk?si=ELz6RHgF_sbdpShg
So, everyone keeps talking about Kamala Harris and black folks etc. North Carolina, at least Raleigh Durham, has TONS of Indians. I don’t know what percentage of them are citizens vs H1B visas, but is anyone looking at that demographic vis-a-vis Kamala Harris? New citizens are pretty reliable voters I believe, at least if my late in-laws are any kind of indicator.
Tim and Ron, I read a conversation about Project 2025 on X and several women with Hispanic last names said they would legally change their names out of fear of mass deportation to camps. That’s not an abortion issue or an economic issue. That is bone chilling racism that they are right to be afraid of. So when thinking about whether they will as a group vote for Harris, consider that dynamic.
This is how you guys Brownstrein totally miss the forest through the trees.
His entire thesis on Wisconsin is focused on only demographics without understanding anything environmentally in Wisconsin.
There are 2 factors in my opinion that work more in the favor of Democrats than Republicans. First, WI is the only blue wall state where there is an actual abortion ban on the books, so it is a much more of a real issue to us than it is to people from MI or PA.
Second, 2024 is first time in 15 years where WI will have fair maps for our state legislature. People are FUCKIN amped up to vote out those anti-democratic GOPers and send them packing. There is a real shot to flip the state house and get within a handful in the state Senate.
Thats what fueled whitmers 2022 win. It was the first election after redistricting in Michigan
Technically redistricting doesn't impact a statewide race, but is most definitely helped flip the state house & senate.
Ohio has a ballot initiative this year to take politicians out of the redistricting process. This is the result of a 2017 vote to do the same, but the Ohio GOP ignored the Ohio Supreme Court 5x and we've been voting under unconstitutional maps. I long to get rid of the Ohio GOP before they completely destroy our state and its reputation.
I just meant whitmer may have benefited from down ballot interest and a very consequential ballot initiative to enshrine abortion rights in the state constitution probably also helped.
I'd like to suggest another criterion for who to select for Veep. Who would best support the efforts of Haley voters for Harris? One name I'd suggest for that narrow task is Adam Kinzinger. Could we at least make supporting the work of Haley voters for Harris a priority?
Could Vance sound any more uncomfortable than he does on the Mt. Dew clip? It’s a moment of delicious schadenfreude.
Harris | Beshear for the win!
OMG Tim— forget about watching the Olympics. You have some movies to watch!! Love you!!
Wondering why more talk of Pete Buttigieg has not been mentioned as a VP. He is from the Midwest, he is a veteran, and a married gay father. I think it’s crucial to not focus solely on abortion and having Pete on the ticket would help put this important issue to help mobilize voters. Pete would also be masterful at taking down JD Vance in a debate.
I agree - especially considering so much of Project 2025 and the authoritarian message is to destroy LGBTQ rights.
Plus he's a joy to watch on FOX News as he absolutely decimates their bullshit.
If we want to prove we, as a party, are serious about the future, we need a woman of color and a gay man on the ticket - if for no other reason than to watch Republican heads spontaneously combust!
Please stop talking about my Governor for VP! Hahaha Walz has been a great Governor, a leader through Covid. And Lt. Gov Peggy Flanagan would be the first Ojibwe Governor and she is fabulous! I will say he has the military record, was an educator (social studies teacher), and just so calm and pragmatic. I like how he’s been out there in support of Harris. But please stay in Minnesota. Thank you.
Sam Stein & Caputo are splendid additions to The Bulwark. Michael Steele & George Conway...not so much.
I respectfully disagree. Stein and Caputo are great but I adore Steele and Conway. So there!
understood
Tim Ryan
Thank you for the insights, and that music. Just love Lukas (and his dad too).
So Tim—where are the music credits?
P.S. I think JD Vance is preparing to shoot himself in the foot—sorry for that particular idiom.
Or cover himself in Mountain Dew
Still like Josh Shapiro and Wes Moore. Sensible men, good speakers. Not extreme, and strong. Why is Pete Buttigieg in the mix? Will being gay always hold him back? He is so incredibly clever and thoughtful. I suppose so much has gone wrong ( not his fault) in transportation that he seems a bit beleaguered. I will vote for Kamala, but voters often cited Hillary being a woman as a reason not to vote for her. I really think the same people are still unready ( so close-minded). If there are folks out there who are so far right they support Project 2025, that puts the average voter in a mildly misogynistic position.
Hi, great conversation about Harris' fabulous campaign start and possible VP picks.
Tim's take on Gov. Walz is likely right, but Walz does have the "cool dad" vibe, and knows how to jab at his opponent.
Panelists on tonight's Lemon Live said that NC Gov. Cooper was also a state AG and that KY Gov. Beshear has justice policies aligned with Harris. Also, a panelist asked if Biden moves back to Scranton, PA to campaign from there, would that help win the state?
Do we need a white guy VP? I don't know, but I'd pick an astronaut. To powerful men who want to rule the world like Trump (or Putin or or Orban or Elon Musk or Peter Thiel), an astronaut who was a Navy combat pilot, piloted the space shuttle, and logged in 54 days in space represents something those autocrats and robber barons will never be: courageous, competent, and with nerves of steel. I want the VP pick to reinforce the message to the international dictators of the world that Democracy is back. But that's just me.
If Dems are this energized by Harris (as a former R, I know I am), is a VP pick that critical?
With respect to immigration there's one approach that might appeal to those voters who consider it an issue but not the issue. It run's somewhat like this: Immigration is an issue that reappears with some regularity in this nation's politics. There are two ways to address this problem. One is a bipartisan, legislative solution that addresses the problem for the foreseeable future. This has been done successfully a couple of times in the past. The other is to ignore solutions to the problem in favor of its utility in angering voters in an effort to get out the vote. The Democrats tried the former, the legislative solution, and Trump shot it down. Do you really think that mass interments and mass deportations are an American solution to the problem?
Smiled all the way through the outro music: nothing political, just my generation. Thanks!
Sigh. Same.
Trump, desperate to stay out of prison, will probably go very, very low and on the attack. I am glad we are all rallied around her and the excitement is real!
I hope they prepare her for what JVL called they’re going to “Willie Horton her.”
I thought Ron was gonna say Fetterman for a sec to win back males.
TWO WOMEN??? - What has you guys been huffing???
Half the country eats giant heaps of racism, misogyny, sexism...no way will they go with two women.
Likewise, Shapiro needs to stay in PA to hold that state and is Jewish in this time of anti-Semitism.
My favorite is J.B. Pritzker, real billionaire, effective governor during COVID, and can hold Michigan and Wisconsin. Also, he is Jewish...will be a barrier.
As a crossover VP from the right --- how about "Schmitty" from the bikers for Trump???
BTW - "real" tough guy bikers I've met in the L.A. "Mongol Motor Cycle Club" (a Hispanic 'club') was through a couple of members who wanted his daughter to be educated in the private Catholic high school).
They don't give a damn about local, regional, state, and federal elections.
The "Bikers for Trump" are mostly MAGAt cos-players --- like Trump --- they want to pretend to tough guys.
Hold on! I’ll give Tim a pass on Chinatown. But BOTH Godfathers??? Dude!
Tim, Mark Kelly barely won AZ in his Senate race so questions there.
The first time around yes (special election for McCain's seat), the second time around when he was the incumbent, he won comfortably.
I’m just throwing this out there. If we go with an all female ticket (we need MI), perhaps they can get the male vote by addressing an issue that does not get enough attention, lonely troubled young men. I watch Bill Maher and a frequent guest, Scott Galloway, talks about this. The percentage of males graduating from college is much less than the female population. They are staying home (with one or both parents) and many are not even working. I think an all female ticket making this a major issue will bring in people of all political parties.
Get the Scott Galloway and John Cena to sign on as advisors for the male loneliness epidemic. Maybe Timothy Chalamet for balance.
cute!
Can you have Ron Brownstein on regularly? He’s like a walking AI machine. I loved listening to him.
Mark Cuban. Vet the heck out of him so there are no surprises. DT's hair might catch on fire. Vance would melt into a puddle.
Supposedly they asked him if he’s interested and he declined, saying the oppo file would be deep and ugly.
Thank you.
DUUUUUUUUUUUUDE!!!!
Friggin' watch Chinatown and Godfathers I and II. Do we have to prop your eyelids open like on A Clockwork Orange? (You've seen that, haven't you? Haven't you???)
I have always been a big fan of Ron Brownstein but I think he is missing the mark while he runs through the various demographic groups that Biden carried (or didn’t carry) in 2020. The match-up we have in 2024 is not really about those standard voting blocs. Rather it will be about voters who plan to vote for anyone but Trump, especially after January 6, 2020. Replacing Biden just made it a lot easier for those people—swing voters, life long Republicans, et. al.—to do just that. Sure, previous years can act as a guide but 2024 will be unlike ANY election we’ve seen before (and, fingers crossed, ever see again).
I couldn’t disagree more. This election is entirely about identity. It fucking sucks but it looks like it is. Maybe our voters just broke me but I have a feeling Kamala will poll worse than Biden. God I hope I am wrong
There was a huge loss of black voters in 2022. I think the abortion issue and J6 brought some moderate voters back to the Dem ticket which prevented a red wave. Harris can bring some black voters back but she may lose older white voters. Idk. I think every election is about identity.
I hope you are right.
The issue is black men. Not sure kamal helps
As many have said here the only question was: will older whites and non college whites be more likely to vote for an old white man or a smart aggressive black woman in the right states.
Tim, you thought making the message was more important than identity politics. God I hope you are right because I disagree (and I’m a half white/hispanic male). I think identity has and will continue to be the most important factor to voting for president. In a previous life I would think that being a woman would be helpful but Hillary proved this ain’t the case. For some reason the identity bleeds both ways for males.
We have been making the case against Trump, sometimes literally in 4 states, and it has made him more popular. Why this would change when a president says it (in fact I think it will make it worse when Kamala/biden prosecute the case because it is immediately political) is beyond me. I hope you are right but man Tim, there sure ain’t any evidence that this was/is/will move the needle.
Tim Alberta said on MSNBC that the two VP possibilities TFG & co. are most afraid of are Mark Kelly and Josh Shapiro. Outside of the campaign, no one is more knowledgeable about this sort of thing than TA; I think that should be given very serious consideration.
As a Dem, I can certainly see the appeal of Kinzinger; but that wouldn't be my recommendation for a variety of reasons. HOWEVER, I very much hope Adam and Liz are offered positions in the new administration - as long as Liz's ultra-conservative beliefs / policies wouldn't jeopardize anything important we're trying to accomplish.
Josh is a great politician but the Israel stuff makes him toxic in Michigan.
Kamala can do what she likes when she is president but putting a Republican in the cabinet will change exactly 0 votes. No one cares who the transportation secretary is…unless he is gay
Well Fu&k Michigan (Go Bucks!). Lol
Seriously, Josh is really good though and we need PA.
We do. Shit I don’t know. I have a feeling he would lose to Trump in Pennsylvania but that’s based on nothing.
I’ve been saying “Sh$t I don’t know” every day. 😂
It’s just fucking insane how stupid our citizens are. Trump has done a 100000 things that would immediately disqualify any other politician. If biden or Harris did one of the things he has said, did, will do the dem voters would crucify them. Trump gets more popular with every crazy thing he does. Just think about how difficult that is to beat
Ron's book, Rock Me On The Water, is an excellent read. Once this election is over - hoping we win - Tim needs to go offline and watch Godfather I & II, Chinatown and I'd add in Shampoo by Hal Ashby, given how it is set around the '72 election of Nixon.
We should check the weather in LA and remind him to start watching when it rains. His husband has to take his phone away too so he doesn’t tweet while watching it.
I cannot believe that Tim hasn’t seen The Godfather or Chinatown. Quit slacking, Tim! They are both excellent.
Why not Harris/Cheney?
Cheney is a non-starter; if they win, she will scuttle any Dem legislation the same way Manchin did.
I am sticking with my fantasy of Cheney as SecDef and Christie as Att. Gen.
Neither should be anywhere near a Dem administration
Just stop.
That is a quick way to loose fast and hard
Migs, it's lose not loose. Did you get lost looking for the trump supporters substack?
Huh? I’m on my phone and it autocorrected. Given your comments I think we are saying EXACTLY the same thing
I hate when that happens 😉
A good way to lose is to put a Republican on the ticket that exactly goes against your entire message (freedom and choice) and pisses all over your base which Biden/harris are weak with right now.
I am an ex Republican…I have never ever given two shits about if a dem put a Republican as the secretary of education or transportation. It is counterproductive and changes zero votes. I hate when people talk about it.
People think that if a president tries to be bipartisan then all of a sudden republicans/dems will just…change. They won’t. Otherwise Trump would be COMPLETELY untouchable and Biden/obama would be overwhelmingly popular. Hmmmm, it seems that never happened.
I'm excited about Harris. I don't care who she picks as running mate. We're either going to win or the bored, grievance fueled part of America is going to win the electoral college. If the EC betrays us again then I guess we just keep trying.
I like her. I’m from California and have voted for her many times. I just don’t trust…us. It’s so depressing that I think a babbling old white man is better than a smart aggressive black woman in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. I hope I am wrong
Ugh - so true. If you had transferred Hillary’s resumé and brain into Mitt Romney’s body, it wouldn’t have even been a contest.
Yep.
Let me be clear, I would have voted for Biden in a coffin versus Trump. My issue is that I think most of America would rather vote for Biden in a box than a smart wavy aggressive smart woman…and it makes me so sad
She's OG conservative and anti- choice
Yeah, the only way I vote for Liz Cheney is if it’s Liz Cheney vs Donald Trump.
Yeah, Liz Cheney will very likely endorse Kamala Harris and campaign for her (or at least against Trump) but she has zero interest in most Democratic Party policies, so there is no reason for Harris to pick her for VP, nor is there a reason for Cheney to want to join the ticket. And that's fine, because Cheney will still be valuable when she goes out and convinces traditional conservatives like herself to vote against Trump. Harris can still give her an ambassadorship, or some other non-partisan-ish role if she really wants to.
She won't endorse Harris.
I think she will. And if she does, it will be the sort of endorsement where she's like "I disagree with her on almost everything, but Trump is unfit". Cheney has made it clear that she finds Donald Trump to be a threat to the constitution and the country, so I don't see her writing-in some random conservative.
And if she doesn’t we can blame Liz and not dems for her lack of character? I just find it difficult that everyone here blames Dems when republicans choose not to endorse a democrat. I find it extremely frustrating that we continue to judge republicans on a curve where if you trip over a flat surface it is somehow the Dems fault
I guess I never understand these fantasies. Biden/harris are weak with their base. The solution cannot be “piss on my base some more.”
Sam Stein making the case for Pete Buttigieg without saying his name....Pete is the dynamite she needs to keep the momentum going!!! #HarrisButtigieg is the winning ticket
I'm going to die on this hill so do not waste your time coming at me...lol
I'm dying on that hill too. Pete 100 percent crushes. Shapiro is good also.
My family is politically mixed but one of my Republican brothers actually likes Pete. Pete goes on FOX. He could attract some moderate Republicans that support Ukraine.
Yesterday at the Autocracy in America conference, Sarah said straight out that Whitmer and Buttigieg were clearly best qualified, but DEI requirements :) were for a straight white guy. She was sharp and funny and people were referring to her all through the day. https://www.law.nyu.edu/livestream?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
Pete is the best!
Ron slips in a quick Crosby stills Nash and Young reference
And Tim closes with one of their best. Perfect.
I have to read his book!
And Tim falls up with carry-on I love it
How can Trump be “slightly more likely” to win when there isn’t a single poll where Harris is actually the candidate?
I don’t believe Harris has led a single credible swing state poll and people have been testing. Who knows how next month plays out but this is an extremely defensible statement
She’s winning the Reuters poll, which is the only poll post-candidacy.
The previous polls were measuring a non-candidate. That moment in time/snapshot has changed dramatically.
No there’s a civiqs poll of the blue wall out today. She’s close but down.
Of course things have changed I just don’t think there’s any evidence to judge the race as anything but slight Trump favorite or unknown/wait see
Reuter's isn't technically a swing state poll.
So we're all right! 🎉
It’s not. And based on polls in general, it’ll be a week at least before there is anything meaningful and valid out there in the Wall.
I’m totally OK with wait and see. I’m not in any agreement in any way with any predictions about a race that changed seismically 48 hours ago. A dartboard would be equally useful.
*Ahem*
Exclusive: Harris leads Trump 44% to 42% in US presidential race, Reuters/Ipsos poll finds
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/harris-leads-trump-44-42-us-presidential-race-reutersipsos-poll-finds-2024-07-23/
I just saw that. So Sam is even more off-base.
A quirky, unconventional VP pick? This is too important for a quirky choice... as fun as it would be with an all woman ticket or a Kamala / Adam ticket - the VP needs to be a conventional, less risky choice.
I stand by my pick for VP, ADAM
KINZINGER. The optics of a young white republican with integrity next to the black female prosecutor is everything this country needs to move politics to a more stable place while moving the ball for the populous.
I think you need someone that can help carry a state.
A guy who voted against every single bipartisan piece of legislation of the Biden Admin?
No way
And what do you say to your base to put someone on the ticket that is pro-life?
I find it so hard to understand these fantasy ideas. I am an ex-Republican. I would love a Republican on the ticket but guess what if I was voting for a Republican and he put a dem on the ticket I would be pissed. Does no one ever get concerned about actually messaging to a party’s base? I just don’t get it. Literally that is all Trump does and he has won before and is winning now but why do people never ever care about the other parties base.
It would work with the base if Adam dropped his membership with the GOP and ran as an independent AND if the ticket were promoted as a "unity" ticket along the theme of "Bring America Together Again" or something like that. I think it would fly with a lot of Democrats who are tired of the hyper-partisan political environment that we are in. The Republicans are certainly not going to do anything about it but make it worse.
And when they ask him should you legalize roe vs wade and he says no? Or are you asking him to change what he has been saying for 12 years? This is unworkable. It pisses all over your base. Do you care about women’s rights or not? Come on. This is galaxy brain stuff
Is Adam really that "pro-life". After all, he did vote for the Ensuring Access to Abortion Act of 2022 (one of only 3 Republicans). I know I have evolved over the years and now consider myself both pro-life and pro-choice (I can explain later). Besides, Kamala can use their differences as a feature. They can tell voters that the things that they have in common are more important than what divides them, that the ticket represents the fact that Americans can work together for the common good in spite of our differences. Furthermore, coalition governments seem to work in Europe in spite of the policy differences within the coalition. I still think Adam deserves consideration and thank Tim for at least bringing Adam into the conversation!
He is. He even said it on the Bulwark. He’s just not nuts.
Will he support roe vs. wade? Some on man he ran for 10 years as a prolife conservative. You can’t shake that because he is anti-Trump when the main message from Kamala will be democracy and freedom for all. He voted against voting rights. It’s not even in consideration.
Here is the thing: no one will vote for Kamala because she puts a Republican on the ticket. No one. But the base, which is pissed at Biden/harris will stay home.
No pro-lifers. That’s not negotiable with women, including Harris.
I’m so lost about these bat shit ideas. Does no one know that Biden/harris weakness is overwhelmingly with their base. Solution: piss on the base some more
Don’t misunderstand MY politics. I am further left than Kamala. I would love a Liz Warren 4 prez. I am just looking at keeping the middle solid middle which would get you a victory. I don’t understand people who are against a coalition government. Trump/pence was a coalition in a way. No one believed Trump could bring the Christian right, cue pence. KINZINGER would make the case for the same middle. With Harris as president, he wouldn’t be dictating any direction anyways. I have definite differences in policy with him but I see that as a strength, not a weakness.
@Shannon, glad to see someone else thinking along these lines. I have a few Dem friends here in my area that love the Kinzinger idea. We are not alone. I'm curious if Adam thinks it could work. Bring him on the show and let's see what he says!
So do you stop running on abortion? You realize that Adam is pro-life right? He ran as staunchly pro-life candidate for 12 years.
Shannon, I WANT what you are saying and imagining to be true. I WANT the idea that if Kamala put Adam on the ticket to make a difference. But there is absolutely no evidence that people care. I am an ex-Republican and no democrat has ever changed my vote by being bipartisan. There just isn’t any evidence ever (see Clinton) that this makes any difference.
Biden/harris’ problem is their BASE. How do you explain to your base that you care about abortion and yet your most important decision is putting a pro-life Republican as your running mate? The base cares about Gaza. How do you explain that Adam is even more hawkish than Biden? It just doesn’t work.
People take advantage at the bulwark (shit I live in sf but am an ex Republican but I realize that you have to do base management) of the dem base. They just assume that minorities and the youth just show up and so they need to appease the right. That doesn’t work or Biden would be blowing out Trump.
Put him in the Cabinet. Make him FBI Director or the head of Homeland Security.
Sure, whatever. It will change zero votes. If this would change someone’s votes I’m in!!!! It just doesn’t because people say they want bipartisanship but that’s bs. They want their candidate to…fight fight fight. Otherwise Obama and Biden would be OVERWHELMINGLY popular and Trump would be untouchable.
Agreed 👍
I love when I look at the guest name on a Bulwark Pod and spontaneously shout "YES!!"
Sam just tosses out (in the most cavalier way possible) "oh, I think trump can still probably win". Don't stomp on our joy!
And there isn’t a single poll.
Youth and dynamism, a white man, military experience... the answer is staring us in the face - Mayor Pete! If we're considering doubling down on the identity stuff anyway with a 2-woman ticket, why not a gay man?
Those who would be offended by 2 women on the ticket are most likely already offended/out on a black female president
I'm wishing for Whitmer myself 😉💕
She said no yesterday.
I said wishing 😉
God, I came for how fabulous Tim Miller is, and I stayed for how fabulous Tim Miller and his friends are. This subscription is so wonderful. I love The Bulwark so much 💜
Vermont's governor is GOP, never Trump, and pro-choice