JVL, Will Saletan and Andrew Egger break down how flawed President Donald Trump's new tariffs are. Plus, what's Trump's endgame with Greenland, and what will it turn NATO into?
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Will is wrong; they didn't flip the evil and stupid parties; the El Salvador concentration camp proves that the Republicans decided to be both.
This is where I reinforce my belief that NATO wouldn’t collapse without the US. Weakened, yes, less militarily ready, yes. Give them some credit!
I know you’d like the US to continue to lead, JVL, as would I, but we’re just not there anymore. The EU is admirably garnering their resources to fortify their union in fighting Putin and to support Ukraine. Out of resolve. They know right vs wrong, good vs evil. We no longer do.
I wish them Godspeed.
Egger has an exceptional command of English
Somebody needs to compile a list of all the reasons being given for Trump's tariff policy. 1893 - tariffs instead of taxes; he wants to bring the CEO class to heal; he and the broligarchy want to destroy the US economy to set up technofeudalist states; it's just a core belief based on economic ignorance; it's a childish, 'laugh at my tariffs, I'll show you'; he wants to be the dealmaker; it's just a grift. Any I missed? For me, not sure why matters, it's just a stupid economic own goal.
JVL is wrong; Trump wants to be a President who has enlarged American territory.
Does anyone put stock into the theory that Trump thinks tariffs can replace all taxes because he personally hates paying his taxes?
Project 2025 "The Case for Fair Trade" by Peter Navarro.
Andrew, Hillsdale? We need to talk.
The stupidest hit peak stupid when they attempt cleverness.
I believe NATO is dead. If the United States attacked Greenland, what would Hungary and Turkey do if Denmark petitioned for Article 5? What would they do if the United States attacked Canada? Article 5 requires unanimity. I'm skeptical. It will be individual countries coming to Trump's victims' aid.
Trump will turn around and give Greenland to Putin.
He'd give the United States to Putin.
I think he is. Currently.
Gosh, here's Nancy Pelosi in 1996, calling for....hmmmm...TARIFFS on China. Give a listen, she's quite articulate:
https://x.com/ThePatriotOasis/status/1907842690294702581
I guess she was part of the stupid party, then.
I truly hope that you are not equating the two. Putting tariffs on basically every country (including some uninhabited islands) in the world based on a made-up equation is insane.
One example of a congresswoman suggesting tariffs against China. Somehow equivalent to the guy now actually enacting multiple tariffs worldwide for no rational reasons.
If you can’t see the difference, you can’t see.
Narrowing Tariffs to bad foreign actors is appropriate. Tariff everybody bad policy.
Pelosi was talking about tariffs on China. We helped rebuild Japan, and Europe after WW2. We have had 80 years of prosperity since then. We are the richest nation in the world. I don't understand how tariffing the entire world benefits us. You cannot blame the rest of the world for our own fiscal deficits, when for years we profit but do not tax equally across our population to handle our fiscal responsibilities.
Japan was not a "bad foreign actor" when Ronald Reagan, concerned about our auto industry, put not just a tariff on Japanese cars, he put an actual quota on them -- this many and no more. The result: Toyota set up factories right here in the US. In fact, the Toyota Camry became the best-selling car in America. Still the Toyota brand and Toyota still gets the profits, but every car is made by American workers.
Pelosi has always been anti China since Tiananmen Square. Also the strong repression of democracy in China and China's aggression against Taiwan. Her call for tarrifs were punitive not economic advantage.
"Punitive" and "economic advantage" are intertwined, no?? Unless you prefer war.
I don't care, I went 100% to cash equivalents and AAA on inauguration, at the beginning of March I went 75% to tripledown S&P funds, I think its gonna be a while until the cat bounces. I have invested tens of dollars in this fiasco. I expect many people of money have done the same.
I had some ruminations his Tariff policy is part of his over-all program of wealth transfer and his dictatorship. A way to break the spirit of the American people.
https://youtube.com/shorts/RUAuLSYLxus?si=fR7iAIbg56vlnSU-
Perfect. Trump probably never took US history. His father just bought his HS diploma.
Wait, it's (exports - imports)/(epsilon*phi*imports)
So it's more complicated!! Ha ha own the libs!!!
Wait... what are epsilon and phi? 4 and 0.25? ummmm... 4*0.25 = 1. Oh crap, the equation does reduce to (exports - imports)/imports.
I don't really understand the argument that NATO is dead or will be focused on attacks from the US. Article V says if any power outside of NATO attacks a NATO power that it is considered an attack on all. But the U.S. is part of NATO, so I don't think Article V applies. Didn't Greece and Turkey go to war over Cyprus while both part of NATO? Nobody seemed to mind.
But Trump wants to leave NATO because the US is being treated like a sucker because we put more money in.
This is a good point. But maybe Trump needs to stay in NATO for attacking Denmark!
And anyway he is Putin's boy.
Since reciprocal tariffs just escalate, perhaps it is time Canada just skipped to sanctioning dealing with specific US companies. Personally, I would start with Amazon, US Agriculture Products, De Walt, paper products (toilet paper, facial tissue, business paper, etc.), and Energy Companies. A Trade War is a War after all and all is fair in love and war.
JVL…is it possible that Trump and his minions are shorting the Dow?
Absolutely. He says he is putting tarrifs on, the market drops, he then says "no, changed my mind." Market goes up. The traders by low and sell high. I worked for several years in the stock market and this has happened before.
The Trump Tariff math beggars reason. Pea brain penury.
My theory is that Greenland is a lazy way to cement his legacy, like renaming The Gulf of Mexico, something tangible to point at and say “trump did that”, bc it’s not gonna be policy, policy is hard.
The Canada and Panama talk is mostly to terrorize those countries, see how much he can make them to alter their behavior and pay attention to them, make it impossible for people from the US to move to Canada to escape him.
Same as the tariffs, those are simply a way to force everyone on earth to pay attention to him, 100% Access Hollywood style.
There is no strategy for anything, this guy is just a deeply unhappy person who is deathly terrified of being ignored and forgotten.
Just brainstorming here ... could he be deliberately devaluing the dollar to the point where he announces our country's currency is now an Elon/Trump/Thiel approved cryptocurrency?
I guess if we are looking for some hope maybe Trump orders an invasion of Greenland and this becomes a bridge too far for the toadies at the White House and in Congress. Especially with the specter of the military possibly disobeying such orders. They invoke the 25th amendment and JD Vance moves into the big chair with explicit orders from his billionaire overlords to tone down the crazy. The fact this is something to hope for and (I think at least) not totally out of the realm of possibility really puts in perspective where we are as a country right now.
No I think his people would go along. Most of them are ridiculously unqualified for their jobs and know they were only appointed to be his "yes men"
Robert Reich’s advice—
“What should other nations do? My strong recommendation to Canada, Mexico, Japan, and the European Union is to join together to create a free trade zone that excludes the United States, imposing at least a 10 percent tariff on all imports from America,
They should also threaten to limit American banks’ access to their public stock markets, put limits on what their citizens can invest in American companies annually, and increase taxes and regulations on American digital platforms.”
Nice he's trying to blow up the Northern Ireland peace process and Brexit deals while he's at it with 10% for the UK and 20% for the Republic of Ireland. I mean it wasn't like Brexit was fraught and NI is a delicate balance. He's a feckin moron.
Someone has to explain a 10% tariff on Jan Mayen an island in the Arctic Ocean with no permanent population and as far as I can tell no industry or exports. I am asking this seriously, what did they do to make him include them, along with Heard & McDonald Islands?
Don’t you think the tariffs have more to do with him becoming the Hungarian wanna-be twin, Orban?
-Create a diversion,
-Create a crisis,
-People march in peaceful protest or rowdy protest,
-someone gets hurt or shot,
-He declares Marshall law.
martial law. But I think you're on to something.
Yes, I wish I could edit it. Thanks!
Edit would be nice because often the correction function turns my misspelled word into something nonsensical.
Man, apart from feeling bad for people in general, imagine being the people at importers and ports and things who have to calculate adding and removing this as they change at the whims of a madman. And possibly on per company or industry exemptions.
And even if he starts removing them, companies will add 30%, remove maybe 15% and claim it’s due to uncertainty, reclaiming losses, etc, while making record profits and shift the blame to Trump. I don’t know if anyone has noticed, but prices don’t always go back down. They’ll hope it disappears in the inflation, say that they can’t afford to give raises in the economic climate and pocket it.
Is Egger trolling me with that Hillsdale hat?
Hi, JVL et al.! My personal decision tree after 8 years of misrule is to assume the absolute worst rather than engage in guessing games with insanely stupid people.
As such, I am planning as though the United States will start a shooting war with Greenland, Denmark, and all of NATO.
"We have a party of cowards following this idiot" is the best ever description of our current situation. I think I'm in love with Will Saletan.
Loved your article Will. Trump's a predator in his personal, professional and biz relationship.
Re Greenland, I also think that Trump is trying to demonstrate his 'genius' like he called Putin when he invaded Ukraine in 2022.
Are we all just suffering through this because Republicans have to keep it together for tax cuts? If these tax cuts go thru can we expect to get our country back? Or, excuse me, OR!!! is it they actually respect these policy decisions?? Where do their true motives lie??? I am so confused
Trump is obviously not emotionally healthy. Perhaps his tariffs, the wall, and his germaphobia are all related and how he is trying to protect himself from whatever it is he is so afraid of.
My new favorite Three Musketeers!
Dear Will, your assessment of NATO was perfect. Andrew E - everything. you said on tariffs - so smart. JVL - you're everywhere, everything, all at once! I love listening to you throughout the day.
Yeah, great trio
Will's analysis of Trump in terms of Greenland etc is very interesting and sounds right to me. I always think of Trump as a bully, but in fact he is a predator. He exploits others, punches down, looks for prey constantly. He is manipulative, controlling, and abusive in every way - emotionally, financially, psychologically. He is completely disconnected from others, from norms of behavior, from social boundaries. Predators obviously cause a great deal of trauma to those they are abusing - which is all of us.
I had been thinking along Will's line. I got there via Vance. As he stood up in Greenland, I thought he is gaslighting the US, Greenland and Denmark the way perpetrators of family and intimate partner violence gaslight the people they say they love, thus enabling the predatory Trump.
He is a total sociopath.
The tariffs are definitely being used to raise some and lower others. And not just countries or companies.
We've already gone to Greenland uninvited and refused to leave when asked. You'd think the Vances might have thought about that before going uninvited again. And we still have our toe in the door. Greenland is important to US interests. Greenland, like Scotland, has had dreams of independence. Pipe dreams. Independence not based on reality because they are not economically self-sufficient. Greenlanders wanted a closer relationship with the US before they were threatened. Now Trump is trying to put together an offer better than they get from the Danes. And the Danes seeing this have been sweetening the pot on their side so the Greenlanders don't choose America. IF the Trump administration is going to take Greenland, offering them a path to statehood might appease their unrealistic desire for independence. As a state instead of a territory, they would have some independence.
The Danes first settled in Greenland in the 9th century. This is not a case of Denmark's holding a land not connected or foreign to them.
Greenland has wanted to be independent from Denmark but has been unable to do that without Danish subsidies. It was one of the reasons Greenland wanted to explore a trade relationship with the US before Trump spooked them. With the Trump kerfuffle, the Danes have been more open to finding a way to create more independence for them. The Danish Prime Minister said today that they want to cooperate with the US on its objectives, but I think they underestimate the Trump administration's desire for resources. Hopefully with all the trouble the Trump is going to have with the tariffs, they'll back off of Greenland and everything will settle down. Then we won't have to think about best outcomes.
Dems should call this a NATIONAL SALES TAX.
I have a massive trade deficit with my corner grocery store. I should put up tariffs on them. brb.
TRUMP IS THE MOST MENTALLY ILL PRESIDENT WE'VE EVER HAD. But most Bulwark commentators seem to have little grasp of the details of his deep sickness. Trump is stupid but he's not so stupid that he doesn't realize the impact of all his actions. And that's the point: TRUMP IS FUNDAMENTALLY A SADIST WHO ENJOYS MAKING PEOPLE SUFER. This is his principle motivation. Bill Kristol is right: "The cruelty is the point." Trump is a Psychopath - his narcissism is a feature of this. You can't make intelligent commentary on Trump unless you know something about his psychology! Trump is more of a Sadist than a Moron.
Dr Strangelove, Psychologist
There's no way all the major players around Trump buy this 'policy'. I'm wondering if this all ends in it being decided that Trump's mental illness is too severe for him to be president and Vance takes over. A massive downward economic spiral that Trump refuses to address could be just the trigger? Does this end in attempt to install a tech-based theocracy?
He's both stupid and narcissistic. He's like a 12 year old spoiled brat who demands the servants bring him whatever he wants and then hits them.
Trump cannot know that he is winning unless he sees the other suffering.
Very well put
Spot On
So I’m going to add to the math equation that amounts to yet another reason we can’t trust the administration. Among that tariff list is:
Heard and McDonald Islands: 10% (charges U.S. 10%)
Now, here’s where the details are important. This is listed on the countries that tariff us and that we’re tariffing. The “trade imbalance.”
The Heard and McDonald Islands are, famously, not a country. They’re a small territory of Australia down near the Antarctic.
The population of this non-country island group is, as of the last check in the year 2000: zero people. These zero people have no government on Heard and McDonald. There are no imports or exports of any kind. Consequently, there is no trade between the US and the Heard and McDonald Islands.
So, when the Trump administration says this “country” charges us 10% for their zero people, zero government, and their zero economy with zero exports, do we sit back and believe them? Or do we start to wonder if this list is about as mentally stable, official, authoritative and legal as, say, the people who were legally in the US that they deported anyway to the gulag in El Salvador?
When people voted for this, do you think they expected to own the libs AND the penguins down near the Antarctic?
I'm sure he had a list of countries and checked them off, knowing nothing about them.
What have those Heard Island penguins been up to?? It's just insane.
It’s the woke penguin agenda, no doubt. They must have learned that the male penguins take care of the eggs.
The announcement out of OPEC+ today increasing oil production is likely not a coincidence. MBS appears to be onboard with getting oil prices to $50/bbl to meet Trumps goal. The caveat is, it’s only temporary, long enough to force US Permian oil producers to shut down US oil production. They cannot make profits at $50/bbl. This is one big FU to Texas and oil companies from MBS and naive Donald Trump.
There's a few that can work below $50, but it's a minority. More importantly, their capital providers will shut off the funds tap because they learned their lessons years ago with the oil field.
Stop thinking Trump doesn’t understand economics. What he understands perfectly well is how to gain power. He has used his presidency to disable our government agencies, instill fear into Republican lawmakers, ignore judicial rulings, bully reputable law firms and universities, corrupt leaders of industry and religious institutions, lie to everyone on every subject. And now he is showing his ability to destroy the world economic order. What we are witnessing is Trump’s blitzkrieg strategy; Hitler used tanks, Trump is using economics.
The schizophrenia is the current state of US policy:
At the same time the policy is not to defend any other allies and focus on defending Taiwan. The demand for Taiwan is to use 10%/GDP on defence. Taiwan gets slapped with 32% tariffs and the so called allies on the Pacific are hardest hit with "the Liberation Day"
The demands of Europe to take care of their own defence. The US is threatening to annex a part of an (exemplary) NATO ally. Demanding that US companies aren't excluded from the increased defence spending and procurement. Slapp a 20% tariff on your European allies.
Make it make sense.
Perhaps the Greenland thing is solely Trump’s attempt to further weaken NATO. Weird how Putin has signed off on it.
Trump wants to be Putin. Putin decides to invade former Soviet states. So Trump wants to invade weak states.
Thanks for the "Good luck ,America." There at the end.
I've been at work all day, I left to go shopping. I'm the "kitchen maven" at my Shul(nickname for Synagogue).
I go shopping Thursdays, and set up for a kosher, after service lunch, every week.
So I was listening to this, as I was driving to Trader Joe's. I type this in my car, in the parking lot. I wonder what prices will look like inside...Well I am about to find out.
Good luck everyone, indeed.
Update: at the Lincoln Nebraska Trader Joe's, I talked with some employees, they said the warehouses had stocked up in anticipation. They said they hoped it would be 2-3 weeks before customers started to feel it. The employee I talked to, was hopeful the tarrifs would end before then. So I guess dude can claim victory whenever, and people are hopeful for that.
I gotta say the way this administration figured out how to do these tariffs is so incredibly stupid (not that there is a smart way to do them). So a product our country can’t even produce here we are punishing the country from which we get said product. How incredibly dumb.
In the world I grew up in, everything is upside down, inside out & at 80, I’m not sure I can survive this. I never thought America could sucumb this. Doesn’t help tha the dept of education is being dismantled.
Really great trio--hope there are more vids w/ these 3. Also, Andrew is killing it lately, including the podcast w/ Mona earlier in the week.
Agreed! Perhaps the three should all grow mustaches.
Racism. That's his other ideological constant. Racism and tariffs... And Russian greatness.
My fear is that Denmark and Greenland will get so pissed off they will threaten to eject the US military bases and Trump will then use that as an excuse to invade and take Greenland by force. In fact this may be the Trump/Vance strategy.
Andrew talks so cogently off the cuff. It's incredible. He talks as clearly as he writes! More rants from Andrew!
You are kind--the trick is already to have written about it!
I came to the comments to say the same! Let Andrew cook!
https://bsky.app/profile/chrismurphyct.bsky.social/post/3lluxkmxydk2m
Dictators have a wonderful way of being able to ignore the destruction of their economies forever. Mugabe and Chavez, for instance, didn't see the ruination of their countries as any reason to change course. Just sayin'.
Just looking at the Newsmax numbers. It’s a maxim of finance IPO’d are gold mines for the perpetrators (word choice made advisedly) and underwriters— and the mine shaft for investors.
The time to buy into IPO (unless you are one of the guys at the table named Doc) is after it stops being an IPO.
This one sure looks like a pump, dump, and laugh at the chump project to me.
Don't be dense! His endgame is to crush us under his feet! We need to stop him now.
OK, I’m gonna need to see Trump’s grades in Econ 101 and 102. Clearly, Trump is ignorant.
I think someone sat the exams for him
Biden’s biggest screw up wasn’t running again, it was not firing Garland in the first 6 months when he clearly was sitting on his hands with respect to Trump J6 prosecution. Trump should have been handcuffed when the 747 landed in PBI on Jan 20, 2021.