A.B. Stoddard: Normalizing Trump Again

Welcome to the Bulwark Podcast. I’m Charlie Sykes. It is May second twenty twenty three. And like everybody else, I’m asking why is this not happening to us? What’s going on here?

The Hollywood writers have gone on strike. We have another big bank that fail, but it was swallowed up by JP Morgan Chase. So we’re kind of back to the too big to fail thing. Right? Vice Media is filing for bankruptcy.

It becomes the latest media company to collapse. And we found out yesterday that we’re a little bit closer to the brink than we thought Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warning that we might only have till June first to raise the debt limit and avoid a catastrophic default. I mean, really, what could possibly go wrong. So joining me. So look at this beautiful early May, A.

B. Stothart, our good friend associate editor in columnist real clear politics, AB. So why is this happening to us? What

I love about this writer strike is that given the fact that a bunch of artificial intelligence experts are now trying to say, oh, but wait, just like, you know, Republicans have done with Trump. And, you know, as you mentioned, we’re maybe on the precipice of crisis that could end to develop in a volatile economy with all the other things that we have that going on. At top of the list, of course, is that Trump looks like the inevitable nominee and could

win. I didn’t even get to that part.

Right. I mean, I think in the middle of that, I think what we need the most is Hollywood writers. So it’s a little painful to imagine that we wanna this sizing bomb of what we need, which is distraction and entertainment.

I agree with all of that. However, I don’t know how many cable channels you have. Now I just have, like, two years with the shows I need to catch up on. I don’t know.

Well, there’s that. There’s that. And

it’s tough being a screenwriter these days. Because reality is often just way more absurd. They they have to be sitting around going, I was gonna make up a character like Marjorie Dela Green, but nobody would have believed it. It just didn’t seem plausible. I mean, it’s like it’s gotta have a little bit of of reality.

I should also mention that Gordon Lightfoot died at the age of eighty four I was a big Gordon Lightfoot fan. I’m noticing that people are actually surprised to learn that the wreck of the Edmund Fitzgerald took place in nineteen seventy five that it’s actually that reason. It was a big deal here in Wisconsin. I mean, we actually remember it.

It’s such a favorite song. I mean, it’s such a treasure. Yeah. But I do like seeing something tweeted about by both John Corning and Joe Scarborough on the same morning. Gives me the woman’s presence.

So speaking of Mormon fuzzies, I want you to explain what is happening with Kevin McCarthy. I described this as the Even a blind squirrel finds a nut addition of morning shots this morning. Kevin McCarthy who has not been this giant colossus of consistency or political courage goes to Jerusalem, speaks before the commencement. It takes his usual partisan shots Joe Biden. But then, there’s this rather extraordinary moment where a Russian reporter who has probably been watching a lot of Tucker Carlson reruns and heard Kevin McCarthy when he said that he wasn’t supportive any longer of a blank check for Ukraine.

This Russian reporter asked McCarthy a question in this post speech press conference. Let’s play it. We know that you don’t support the current unlimited and control supply, so weaponry and aid to Ukraine. So can you comment? Is it possible if in the near future the U.

S. Policy a regaining, sending weaponry to Ukraine will change. Yes, I’m not sure. The sound here is not good. Did he say I don’t support aid to Ukraine?

No. I’ve for aid for Ukraine. I support aid for Ukraine. I do not support what your country has done you to to Ukraine. Do not support your killing of the children either.

And I think for one standpoint, you should pull out. And I don’t think right. And we will continue to support because the rest of the world sees it just as it is. Damn. AB, what do you think?

I think I’ve said something not nice several times on this podcast, which is that Kevin McCarthy’s kind of dumb. Politically, he’s just excellent at the shared feeding of his membership, which has led to, you know, some success. You know. He’s now the speaker of the house and third in line for the presidency. And I feel that this brewing confidence, he’s feeling you know, he’s gotten a bill through the house, no one said it could happen to present to the president about the death feeling.

He’s over in Israel, and he’s feeling his statesman thoughts. And I thought it was obviously amazing and the right thing to say. And he did not back dial at the end and say, but there’s no blank chat. Yeah. Not yet.

And he right. I I was gonna say that probably likely once March gets him on, you know, line one, but Yeah. So what I thought was so interesting was the timing of this with the reporting From Semaphor that Laughlin and Rupert Murdoch had in the last few months spoken to President Zelensky and that it wasn’t right by the time that Tucker was fired. But they were speaking to him about the war in Ukraine.

Exactly. And this is the Sema four scoop. Fox News executive chairman Rupert Murdoch held a previously unreported call with Ukrainian president, Vladimir Zelensky, this ring in which the two discussed the war and the anniversary of the deaths of Fox News journalist last March, the Ukrainian president had similar conversation with Lochland Murdoch on March fifteenth, which Zelensky noted and a little noted aside during a national broadcast the conversations came weeks before the Bernox fired their biggest star and most outspoken critic of American support for Ukraine Tucker Carlson. I don’t know whether this is connected or not, to whether you connect the dots, but, you know, the timing’s interesting. Right?

I thought the timing was was fascinating. I think that, you know, there is a case to be made. The donors are pulling back from Rhonda’s Santa’s because they thought he was gonna help the party get rid of Trump and that they’re worried about his Ukraine comments and his equivocating. And so I think there is a connection to be drawn between not only the small donors still drive the power, give the power, but that there is still an establishment to party, there’s still a critical mass of Republicans who want to get rid of Trump. And along with going too far on government overreach, in the case of Disney, along with extremism, on abortion, without exceptions, comes as Ukraine issue, and it’s been in the background.

But that was no small thing for the speaker to say.

No. It was no small thing. And and actually, you got me thinking about this a little bit. So, you know, I asked in my newsletter, you know, did McCarthy take the new tone because he had a flash of conscience? Did he always think this he just felt he couldn’t say it.

I mean, that’s number one, number two. He actually had a genuine change of heart. He’s decided that he is gonna stand, you know, with the freedom fighters against of Vladimir Putin. Or number three, he no longer has to worry about being dragged by, you know, a pro Putin show like Tucker Carlson. You’ve raised the fourth, which is that there’s an element of the donor class, the Republican donor class that actually does take this issue seriously.

And and if you have Murdoch, and the donor class lining up, that’s a critical mass. Another question is whether this implicit repudiation of the Republican surrender caucus is gonna hold after, you know, March calls him into the the principal’s office. We’ll just have to say. But kudos in the short run.

Exactly. We’ll take it. Is is my initial response. And I and I do expect him to take our in few days when he gets back. But, again, it is it’s so interesting because it’s a less of the tension that even though Charlie, the polls show Republicans are with March, the base is has moved off into a majority opposing continuation of support for Ukraine, and a minority supporting it What is interesting is that the party after all these years, in the case of Ukraine, at least a segment of it in the Romanian police and establishment is still trying to leave the voters instead of being led by them.

And on this, of course, they will be led by them, but they’re at least trying at this moment to leave.

And this is in the context, of course, of the return of Donald Trump, who is about to become, as you wrote, ubiquitous. His hold on the party is pretty evident, and we know where he comes down. However, extreme margery Taylor Green is she’s hardly as extreme as Donald Trump who cannot hide his admiration for Vladimir Putin. We know exactly where Trump comes down on all of this. So let’s talk about what you described as our wretched groundhog day.

You had com last week over a nuclear politics after Joe Biden announced that he’s running again and you open with the line the dreaded rematch of Joe Biden versus Donald Trump now seems like it will only be haunted by some unforeseen drama and not by Ron DeSantis, discuss.

Yeah. I think, you know, everyone in our in our world, Charlie knows that I was hardest hit by the announcement that Joe Biden was running again because I was so convinced that he would you know, come to Jesus or that he already had, I think it’s not gonna go well, and that’s, you know, that’s unfortunate. But for all the reasons I’ve laid out so many times in the last year. But the idea that he thinks he can run, hold the coalition together, with all the apathy throughout all the different parts of the coalition and all the problems still faced with Kamala Harris and his age and that Trump seems so inevitable now is just so hard to swallow. Obviously, most Americans agree with us, but because we follow it at a granular level, It’s all the more painful because we see clearly the Trump if nominated could win.

And I outline that. And the piece that There’s a several thousands of Americans only who decide these elections. Seven thousand in three states in twenty sixteen, forty four thousand. In four states in twenty twenty really don’t follow the news. They’re living their lives.

They’re not politically addicted. It really turns them off. They don’t wanna know much about it. And I think they will look at these two if nominated, and that’s where apparel lies. And just say, look, you know, Joanne looks like he needs to go home and be with his grandkids.

He much older, at least Trump’s done the job before, and gas and eggs cost less them. And, like, you know, like, oh, well, And so it’s just really hard for me to believe that there’s this slam dunk, you know, that Trump is so beatable, and, of course, he’s gonna lose. And even if Joe Biden wins, people don’t want Kamala Harris to succeed him in the middle of his term. So it is It’s really depressing. So but the smart kids have been telling us a b.

I know. But

okay. Joe Biden is old. Get over it. We’re going to have to get over it, suck it up. This is it.

This is the game we’re playing. Right. Right? Right.

I’ve always prefaced this or provided caveats and it’s not that Joe Biden is not worth voting for. Obviously, I don’t want anyone to vote for Donald Trump and bring him back into office. It’s an existential threat. It’s terrifying. And I have friends who are already telling me, you know, that they’re gonna move to other countries.

And I don’t know what I’ll do this now. I’ll be in get mode with you. But anyway, it’s it’s not like a joke. Right? Obviously, we need Biden to prevail.

And if Biden could make it through the term, that would be great. It’s just a risk that I believe is is not worth taking. Yes. Joe Biden must be supported. And we have much to really hope that he makes it to eighty six.

But it’s a risk.

Well, I I think it’s pretty clear what the Republican strategy is going to be. And I I wrote about this that Nikki Haley’s comments and, you know, that that Joe Biden’s gonna die in the next five years. That that was not a gaffe. That was not a one off. They are going and quoting what I’m like, my colleagues, they’re going to run against dead Joe Biden live Kamala Harris.

As cynical as strategy as that is, I can’t say that that’s stupid. So they want to focus on Joe Biden’s age and his potential mortality and the prospect that a vote for Joe Biden is a vote for Kamala Harris. That is not easily finesseable. I’m not sure that Joe Biden doubling down on, you know, I’m probably not gonna die, but, you know, everything is in great hands because I have a Kamala Harris here. I mean, if you’re talking about who’s old and who’s going to die and whether or not you get Kamala, then then you basically have conceded the Republican talking point.

Then you’re discussing it exactly in the terms they want to be discussing it.

Exactly. And that’s another point I made in the piece, which is that Nobody has to like it. But when Trump starts running around saying, in a few months, he’s asleep, he goes to me in the hospital, we’re gonna get stuck with Kamala. Like, that’s cruel, and it’s crude. But no American if any political stripe is gonna be happy with that because she’s she’s uniquely unpopular across, you know, all everyone in the political spectrum.

And there’s a real lack of faith that she can handle the job. And the White House’s plan, as you’ve discussed with others, you know, obviously, they’re gonna try to pump her up. Right? Let’s try to say she’s ready. Let’s let her show up at more appearances.

Let’s let her handle the abortion issue and try to drive voter energy. Let’s continuously say that any skepticism of her is completely sexist and racist. But no one’s buying that. So They’re in quandary, as you as you say, Charlie, the more that they put her front and center in a bid to try to neutralize the age issue the more they’re kind of really shining a light on the liability.

Hey, folks. This is Charlie Sykes, host of the Bulwark podcast. We created the Bulwark to provide a platform for pro democracy voices on the center right and the center left for people quote tired of tribalism and who value truth and vigorous yet, civil debate about politics and a lot more. And every day, we remind you folks, You are not the crazy ones. So why not head over to the Bulwark dot com and take a look around.

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So would you indulge a digression that will annoy, like, at least half the people listening to this? Yes. We just indulge a digression. Yes. Because, again, here, I’m debating whether or not this is too irrelevant to bring up.

But a year ago, because I, you know, yeah, I keep track of these things on my phone. So a a year ago, I was in I was visiting Washington DC for I’m sure it was a Bulwark event. And I tried to check into hotel in downtown Washington and they didn’t have a room ready and it was getting really, really late. And so I actually, you know, went up to the desk and said, hey, have to go to this meeting. I have to I have to do a podcast.

Is there is there any place I can go? And the manager, may God bless him, comes out and says, okay. We don’t actually have a room ready for you, but we have this special suite. And the suite was the VIP suite. And everything in this room was from the TV show, Veep, all kinds of pictures of Julia Dreyfus.

I mean, and all the stuff. The fake news she had written pictures on the wall of for for being the beep and everything. I mean, it was this delightful room. It was really one of my high points. Because this will not come as a surprise to you.

I love the show, Veep. I thought it was absolutely outstanding. In fact, I like Veep so much that I’ve even watched the British predecessor show, which it was based on, which I highly recommend. In in any case, We’ve seen these video montages where they have Selena Meyer played by Julia Lewis Dreyfus as the fictional vice president next to actual Kamala Harris? I

actually can’t take that.

It’s kinda painful. She’s got a problem. And the problem is that once people get that in their heads, that she’s kinda slena Meyer, it’s really hard to pump that up. Take away from this is that there actually is a hotel in Washington that has a Veep suite. And I was there for it.

So okay.

So this is, you know, I followed you closely on Twitter all these years. Were you allowed to talk about this? Did you tell us us people in the publics or

no? How did I miss this? I have no idea.

It’s amazing. Oh, yeah.

You know, I mean, I’m I’m not well, like, one of these, you know, media people who goes to the White House correspondent’s dinner, you know, and tweets out pictures of myself in black tie. That sort of thing. Because I don’t go. I never get invited to these things.

But you could have, like, deleted a picture of yourself and your p j’s in the Veeze

suite. I

would have appreciated.

I do have pictures from the suite, but not in pajamas. No. There are no pajamas. Okay. So Alright.

Well, I can’t

believe I missed it.

The digression is over here. So your piece about the retro groundhog day point out, I mean, DeSantis, I’ve always thought you and I have discussed this Ron DeSantis was that balloon was way over inflated, but Oh my god. His mistakes have solidified Trump’s front runner status even though he looked like he was formidable candidate, popular, aggressive, forty four year old governor. So what has happened to Rhonda Sandes? And where does that put Republicans who were very, very confident that he was going to be their kryptonite.

What’s so interesting is we’ve gone through different stages, and there are still these I don’t know if I should call them the declangers or the deflovers. There’s still people trying to make Rhonda Sanchez happen, as you’ve seen. Eric Eric Erickson, is that with a piece saying it’s all the media’s fault. They’re bashing him because there’s not that he kicks days away from the media. So they’re just mean and they’re gonna just they’re gonna actually cooperate with Trump in just trying to bury Rhonda’s handsets.

So Trump can be the nominee because that’s better or something like that. And then you have I see some tweets from different lobbyists. And so people still trying to say, like, hey, we did give this a shot. Mark Penn has a piece in the Wall Street Journal today, talk about how there’s still hope for him to turn things around because there’s plenty of moderate Republicans who are pro Ukraine and and other things wanna focus on the economy and not so much wealth stuff, wanna focus on immigration and inflation, and that they could be decisive in in the coalition and help keep Trump back. And and, of course, you had that Franklin’s piece from weeks ago, which was just unbelievable about how to, quote, make Trump go away.

So there’s still, even after he has, like, a skunk, sprayed his fear. You know, we can all smell it no matter what state we’re in. Even before his crazy man video from Japan where it looks like

it’s

a deep fake, and he’s on some kind of crazy, you know, I don’t know, drug. Even before the most recent cringeworthy things, people were just saying, look, this guy is clearly He didn’t really have a long term plan. He really didn’t have a strategy. He’s afraid. He didn’t think it through And so what I’m so interested in is that the fact that there are people that still believe it can happen even as donors are pulling away and saying, look, I gotta keep my power dry.

This guy’s not showing me what I would need at this point a plan to take down Trump. He’s not showing me that he didn’t go the distance and be the nominee. And as you pointed out and I pointed out, Charlie Lake, even if you’re beating him in the polls and you start beating him in Iowa and other states, how do you become the nominee and then win the general if he’s gonna boycott the election. So we just are beginning to see that he is a little bit of the wizard of Oz behind the screen here. And I I’m gonna be fascinated with the announcement of the exploratory committees coming so soon, and and he’s he’s gonna knock back back down?

That’s

the name of the committee. Right? Don’t back down or something like that.

Right. He instill and he’s just made up in those commercial worries. Like, I never back down. I’m just fascinated to see how he’s gonna try to project strength and turn things around. To me, and I’m no political strategist, The only thing he could do right now is do kind of a towel throwing in speech or interview where he purposely, obviously, takes a sharp turn and tries to speak general which in language.

And that would soothe the donors, something on abortion or Ukraine or the economy and stuff away from the Disney stuff, but it just seems really on life support right now. So

you mentioned this Frank Lones column in the Sunday New York Times earlier last month, and and he had a formula for how to make Trump go away. He wants Trumpism without Trump, and he advised challengers to be what humble make it about the grandchildren emphasized. Okay. You support Trump’s agenda, but But with civility and decency, do I detect a little bit of skepticism about that advice, the Lindsayan advice?

Where were they in twenty fifteen? So eight years later, we’re being told by Franklin’s, who’s a poll sort of focus group, Maestro, super good friends and ally of house speaker Kevin McCarthy is writing in the New York Times outlining what, I guess, Ron DeSantis thought he could do. Right? Which is to be, like, a fighter and an an accomplished guy, Ron delivers. He wins.

He can also make, you know, the Liberals’ privates he gets stuff done and he’s not a whiner and he’s gonna be civil, I guess, enough. But once goes on about character and how president should be models for their grandchildren, they threw that out — Yeah. — years ago. I I listened to that.

Yeah. We had that argument. Yeah.

That to me, it was another just a flailing around grasping I thought it was completely ludicrous and I was surprised it didn’t get more attention how insane it was, but they just don’t know what to say. They’re out of things to say about how do they move on from Trump. Right? They’re kind of half in the bag of accepting it And then these the sustainers or these deflationers who are the declangers that are still hoping Ron can pull it off or trying to explain, pass out if he just turns around and pivots on, like, inflation and being a family man.

Sure that’ll do it. Now we wake up and Trump set the cruise in these early states. He’s he’s getting these endorsements. He’s the poll numbers are very strong. He’s back on Fox News.

Right? And Give me your sense though of the way the media is handling them because, you know, by the way, I just cringe when you talk about, you know, eight years ago, we’ve been doing this for eight years. And I think one of the the questions that have been out there is Republican Party figured out how to handle Donald Trump. No. Okay.

Second question, has the media figured out how to handle Donald Trump. I think we’re getting our answer now. You’re I know that you’re working on a piece about how Trump is being normalized. He’s back on Fox. He’s getting regular interviews.

And then we found out yesterday CNN is doing a town hall with him next week. AB, help me help me sort this out. CNN town hall for the twice impeached defeated now indicted former president who tried to overthrow the government. But his news were they yeah. Yeah.

Gotta

give him the town hall. Right? They wooed him and negotiated to rebuild the relationship. He has been on CNN since twenty sixteen, and it’s gonna be a q and a town hall with undecided Republican voters think it’s financed — Mhmm. — in New Hampshire.

So to me, I’m sure they’re gonna do their due diligence to have some kind of plan about fact checking or something. But it’s gonna be an exchange with voters. It’s not just Caitlin Collins talking to him the whole time. So I don’t know what the plan is. It is an an incredible gift to Trump.

And he will because he’s back on Fox News after a soft ban and Mark Levin is now Mark Levin, you know, months ago, was Ron DeSantis, and every time Trump would pick on DeSantis, you know. Mark Levin would be offended Ron DeSantis isn’t helpful, you know, and we’d tweet about it. You know, they’ve all come back around. They’ve given in and What

is the price? They’re

gonna give him regular error on Fox, and then this idea that he’s gonna be on CNN. It not only obviously helps them against Ron DeSantis in the meantime, because Rhonda Santos is just scared. And as some of four notes today, the other candidates in the field are just scared to go beyond box. They only show up on box. So it makes Trump look really tough, but it just obviously the most important thing is that it’s going to be a huge advantage for Trump if the mainstream media affords him this stage, and Joe Biden continues to avoid exseparaneous comments, town hall situations where he has to just quickly answer a voter, lengthy press conferences, whatever.

It’s going to make a huge contrast that’s gonna favor Tom. And

that contrast has been obvious for the entire term where Joe Biden clearly does not, you know, stand to stride the Republican the way that other presidents have. You know, some of us wanted this. We wanted wasn’t constantly in our face. We wanted to be able to go through new cycles without thinking about or listening to the president. Well, we got it.

We got a good nod. And as a result, you know, you have a much lower profile present in the United States. And your point here, which I think is really interesting, is if Donald Trump is ubiquitous. If he is everywhere all the time and the media is going to normalize him, And Biden avoids the cameras whenever possible and doesn’t speak contemporaneously at all. Well, that’s gonna characterize the political environment of twenty twenty four and not in a good way.

Right. Because what the electorate at this point is you to is that Trump lies. It’s his style. He’s an entertainer. He uses his how I say imprecise language.

He’s a buster. He grabs

women by the Right.

Isn’t it funny? Like, we’re used to it. He gets so he always gets to beat that person. Where when Joe Biden goes off on one of his fantasy tales about porn pop or whatever, It is going to be fact checked, and it’s gonna be mocked on right wing media as, you know, that he’s has dementia. And he doesn’t worry he is.

And Joe Biden does avoid access to the press and free flowing conversations and getting away from the teleprompter. For this reason, because he wants his messages to be tightly calibrated and in his staff don’t want any mistakes. And so and he’s getting older, and it and it’s so good for him. And so Because Trump has been gone, Charlie, for a few years, the average voter, and I’ll mention them again, who’s not paying attention to all this stuff, is kind of desensitized. They’ve kind of forgotten January six or they didn’t really pay a lot of attention to it.

And so this idea that he’s, like, kind of a de facto in the primary, at least. Right? And the public in primary is a de facto incumbent. And then you bring him to the general election, and he’s, you know, he’s gonna be a more present ex president, maybe than the current president. And that is a very bad formula for Biden.

Well, and then this goes back to how does the media cover ham. I’m working through my reaction to what CNN has done, which just feels like it is a a throwback. And I understand the argument that, well, look, he’s he’s the leading Republican candidate for president. He’s one of the most, you know, prominent individuals. He’s going to be a big, you know, ratings win for CNN, and this is what, you know, news channels do.

Right? As they cover guys versus the fact that he’s Donald freaking Trump. And we are faced with something that is absolutely unprecedented. And and it’s one thing for the average disconnected voter to forget about January sixth or forget about all of his lies or to ignore, you know, his insanity or the fact that he actually called for terminating the constitution or, you know, his kissy faced with with the white Jonathan Last. But the media has a different role here and I continue to think that they just have not figured out how to handle this.

Oh, that’s what I assume. And maybe we’ll be surprised next weekend and Caitlyn Collins after each undecided voter asks her questions, we’ll say, I wanna remind the audience that this interaction is twice in each Lyre who basically, you know, gave away classified information to the Russian ambassador in the Oval Office and took the side of Lyre, they’re putting over the director of National Intelligence now gonna answer a question about blah blah blah. I don’t we don’t know how it’s gonna be handled. So I’m gonna give them the benefit of the doubt in advance until I see where they handle this. But because this becomes the norm where he is just our regular nominee in waiting over here and we have to give him all of this air, they’re gonna get him elected.

We’ve moved from the Wishcasting people to say, well, there’s no way that did however you have the nomination to now people well, there’s no way that you can win the general election. As you and as you point out, you know, these poll numbers do have some relevance here. I mean, Biden, you know, does have a higher approval rating than Trump. But, you know, the Washington Post founded across national polls in twenty twenty two, twenty twenty three, only thirty eight percent of Democrats wanted Biden to beat the nominee again compared to seventy three percent of Republicans in Trump’s first term. I mean, this this is a problem People may not want to hear this, but Trump can win this election.

If you’ve been in the grocery store and seen prices, if there is a banking crisis. If we have, you know, more banks fail, if in fact the Republicans do, in fact, you know, push this this country over the debt limit. If there is a health crisis, there are so many things that can go wrong. And it feels like I mean, no, we’re all locked into all of this, but at the same time, it’s like we’re sleepwalking into the same old thing. You know what I’m saying?

I mean, is we’re we’re we’re half of us are like horrified. We’re watching this. We’re we’re hanging on everything. And on the other hand, it’s like watching the country to sort of drift into this moment.

Yeah. Because we are watching it and we’re kinda powerless to do anything about it. And so we’re hoping once again that Republican elites will take this seriously and not go snooze on the couch and think someone else will take care of them, which is what they’ve done for eight years. And we can sound the alarm among people who are informed about this and care. But those voters, as I said, who are decisive who swing elections, who are not partisans, and they’re not tribal.

They, as you mentioned, life is changing really fast and things cost a lot of money. And was costing more. And they’re they’re really anxious. And again, this sort of prevalence of, you know, Trump being out there saying we had a good economy. In fact, that he’s up by a little bit half a point in our RCP average of poles over Joe Biden.

Right now, And as you point out, so many things could actually really hinder Biden even more. If you look at the weakness that Biden has across the coalition, it’s terrible. The apathy among, you know, black voters who didn’t get police reformer voting rights legislation that who said you’ve told me to show up for elections all these years and the Democratic party who’s not delivered. That’s real feeling and it’s growing. So the Latino performance among Republicans, that’s durable.

Among Asian Americans. That also was those are good numbers for for Republicans in twenty twenty two without Trump. And obviously, on the economy, democrats are way weaker than Republicans, but just in the Democratic coalition, there’s so many weaknesses they’re worried about. Small donor epithe also. So they’re, you know, they’re trying to rattle the cages with the big donors and get them excited again.

And it’s hard to see if we hold the coalition together through what you’re describing, a potential recession and everything else. Also, I would mention Ukraine. Even if you’re wrong, the scientists were to be the nominee next summer, Charlie, and he had run on, you know you know, of course, we oppose the invasion of Ukraine, If that wars the mess, he’ll hang it over by the speck. No.

I I think that’s true. So let me push back a little bit, find the silver lining. So let me quote you to you. Okay. What Democrats are counting on, which may save them, is that Trump is a turnout engine for their sides.

You’re talking about disillusionment, a little bit of apathy. I think some of that has to do with the fact that people in the Democratic coalition have not completely gotten their heads around that it’s going to be freaking Donald Trump again. That he’s going to be on the ballot and that nothing will stir up the base as much as Donald Trump. So after defeats, the party suffered in twenty eighteen, twenty twenty, twenty twenty one, all of these. They don’t need to be told a fifth time unless fate intervenes that Trump is likely a far riskier bet for them than Biden is for the democrats.

And Republican officials and donors agree with this. I mean, Republican officials know after all of those defeats. How how risky Trump is. And what we have seen is just off the charts turn out among Democratic constituencies, like here in Wisconsin, that Supreme Court election. I mean, it’s not a presidential but they’ve figured out a formula to do something that we’ve talked about for years, but I’ve never actually seen that they turned out young voters The abortion issue is not going away.

And so you have Donald Trump on the ballot. You have abortion on the ballot. And so right now, there might be a little bit of sleepiness going on among Democrats, but there’ll be plenty of time for them to wake up.

Agreed. Which is which is why I wrote that. I do think that, you know, Republicans are really worried, and you saw Andy McCarthy out again saying this. I mean, that a lot of them will just are saying flatly over and over again. Trump’s gonna lose.

Trump’s gonna lose. And what I mentioned about the base is that the base is disenchanted. I don’t know how to feel next year, but actually, what I do think is really about the coalition is is the former Republicans’ suburban women independent kinda newly democrat anti Trump voters are definitely gonna turn out. Yeah. So maybe not Bulwark and Latino in numbers that the Democrats hope for.

And then I think young people will actually turn out not because of Donald Trump, but because of Ghosn’s abortion. And in the past, they haven’t. That’s

right. And

actually, their numbers, Charlie Sykes Mitch Trump, were lower than twenty eight and they turned out more in the mid term of twenty eighteen than this midterm. But substantively, those two issues are really, really energizing them and they’ve had it. And I do think in a presidential cycle that we’re gonna finally see a real arrival of the youth vote because of those two policy issues, guns, and abortion.

And again, this is one of those things where it scrambles the electorate And we’ve watched the way the electorate changes so dramatically. I mean, from the, you know, two thousand. Think about the last twenty three years what we’ve seen happening. We have, you know, blue areas become red areas, you know, red areas become purple areas, some red areas become intensely red areas. You have the the collapse of white working class non college educated voters among Democrats, but then you’ve had this amazing surge that is sort of disconnected voting patterns from economic status and more closely aligned educational status.

If in fact you start having a big youth turnout, That’s not nothing. Right.

Right. I think that they’re mad at Joe Biden on climate. They think he’s ancient. They’re not as mad at Trump as we are. Or not as horrified, but they are so motivated on abortion and machining.

If Biden wins, I believe that would be, you know, what clench shit for him. You know, the young voters, Gen Z, is the most pro choice generation ever they’re likely by the twenty twenty thirties to make up thirty percent of the electorate, and they’ve voted in them in terms twenty eight points for Democrats. So if they show up, it’s over, I think if they show up, it’s not because of Trump, and it’s because they’ve swallowed their anger on climate and their disappointment, and it’s because of abortion on guns.

Well, Trump is gonna be part of that formula. And I’m I’m thinking of the electoral college map because, of course, we have to. And we haven’t talked about just the the the crazy extremist factor and and what’s happening in places like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. I mean, if the election is decided by those states, Democrats have an advantage mainly because the Republicans are aggressively losing their minds. I mean, these were competitive states.

Look what’s happened in Michigan, in Wisconsin. I mean, I actually think that Joe Biden has to be considered the small favorite again in Wisconsin. You know, Trump and the Republicans continue to hemorrhage voters in the suburbs, particularly among suburban women. And that’s happening in Pennsylvania as well. Can’t speak to what’s happening down in Arizona because they appear to be completely in the process.

The Republicans there of completely losing their minds. Georgia, the fact that Georgia now has two Democratic senators is still, I think, underappreciated in terms of how mind blowing that is.

It’s true. I worry about Nevada, Georgia, and Arizona, but I do think that the midterms did show, you know, that the blue wall is really a problem for Republicans again. Yeah. So nationally, economy was thirty one, the top issue, thirty one percent abortion nationally was at twenty seven percent four points behind the economy. And Pennsylvania abortion was the number one issue.

You’ve got a really impressive new governor there, a second term nominated by a landslide democratic governor in Michigan, Wisconsin. You know it better than I do, I’m still like, but when you look at the Evers numbers compared to Mandela Barnes, we think, you know what? It was all about Mandela Barnes and Ron Johnson is just lucky. Right? Maybe it’s a better state for Biden, but I agree with you in Michigan and Pennsylvania.

It’s the staying home voters. The ones who hey, Trump, but are like, I don’t know, man, Joe Biden. They just can’t do it again, and they stay home in those key states. It’s a little worse. And

we cannot pretend that that’s not going to be a huge issue. Right. I mean, the age issue is it’s a narrative that has taken hold. And it’s not a completely, you know, fake narrative. I was impressed with him over the weekend, you know, at the at the correspondence dinner, you know, that if all you saw were little tidbits on YouTube, do you think that the guy, you know, can’t put together two coherent sentences.

And he’s actually he can exceed expectations, but there’s a real risk because none of us are getting any younger. That’s the problem. Yeah. Including Donald Trump, by the way, whose age needs to be, I think, highlighted a lot more aggressively by the democrats right now if they wanna talk about age at all.

Right. Because he would be entering the presidency at the age that Biden did. Right? Seventy six.

He’s not a spring chicken.

I did think that the White House whatever writer they found was not on strike, and I thought Biden’s bits were awesome. Very funny. The Marjorie Taylor green line was just such good clean fun, but it was so wonderful. You know, he said, I hope everyone has a good time tonight, and I want them to stay safe. Be festive, but if you find yourself confused or disoriented, your other drunk, or your margarita Taylor Green.

I mean, that was just a world class. It was so funny. And it wasn’t below the belt or anything. It was just it was really good writing, and I do agree that he could definitely perform and exceed expectations. Put last night on CNN, Aaron Burnett showed a clip of Joe Biden in a demo with her in twenty nineteen.

And he was just visibly so much different. Mhmm. So yes, you think what is it gonna be like next fall? It’s May second, next fall for Joe Biden. We don’t know.

You know?

We don’t know. I mean, he he caught a real break in some ways in retrospect. During twenty twenty with the COVID lockdown that he was basically able to stay home. He won’t have that ability. But I think that most people most people I mean, who who who knows?

To go back to your the title of your column, our wretched Groundhog Day, I think people are gonna go through the various stages of of recognition. I think that for a lot of people, they just cannot believe we’re going to do this again. You know? It’s just like, because it’s unthinkable, it can happen. Well, it it is gonna happen.

Right. And then I think there’s going to be that that sense of deflation, like, oh my god. We are going to go through this dreaded rematch again. Shoot me now. But then again, you know, I think that there will be the but this is what we got.

And by next year, there’s gonna be a very, very clear sense of what stakes are going to be. Although, what a tragedy for the nation that we have, you know, these two leanly elderly men holding the banner when the stakes are so incredibly high. One

of them is like, look, you didn’t really batch it. Not just a criminal, but, like, he’s also batch it.

And an overt fascist. I mean, the he’s made no secret to what he will do when he gets back into power. I mean, this is the thing he there’s there’s no subtlety here.

Right. I know I’m one of your darker guests, so I I wanna, like, get back to something positive, which is that and I’m glad you’re doing this pod on Thursdays, which I think is awesome to really kind of keep track of what we’re gonna be going through with the future faces. And there’ll be one, at least one more, but potentially three more. Just so mind numbing. I mean, it’s astounding.

And I do think that that will trickle out into public. I mean, those will be far more serious. I do think that will have an effect whether it will go back and change the minds of the Sarah Longwell Focus Group, double Trumpers who are, like, oh, he’s too much baggage. We need to find a winner. And now there’s just coming back around him and thinking he’s really strong.

Maybe that sours them. We don’t really know. I don’t know that it’ll help Rhonda’s handsets, so I think is a mess. But I think with the middle of the electorate, it could do more damage to Trump.

Well, I I agree. And I and I think it is the cumulative effect of all of it. But the the reason why I wanted to have a designated show is because the the danger is that we become numb to it all. Right. That it becomes the background noise.

And, you know, you and I do this every single day for a living and yet it’s still, we need to step back and go, okay, can you remind me what’s going on in this case or that case? And of course, this is also the need to push back against, you know, the irrational exuberance that sometimes breaks out about small developments that might seem really, really big that in fact are not really central or core to what’s going on here. So, you know, this is going to be the big story of twenty twenty three You know, the election will be twenty twenty four, but the biggest story of twenty twenty three will be the multiple felony indictments of the former president of the United States, and I’m leaving aside the civil trial, and the fact that this federal jury is gonna come back sometime relatively soon. About, you know, the aging Carol, you know, rape allegations and who knows how that plays at at all. It is that whole weight of them.

When you put them all together, But the problem is that we have many of these voters who live in a world where they can pretend none of this exists. They will know nothing about it. And this is the world we live in.

Yeah. That’s true. And so we don’t yet know how much gets filtered out, and maybe we will just be literally solving in a few months over that facts. But In the meantime, what I’m thinking is the average Joe gets an alert on his phone, learns new things, from the Sarah Longwell doc or —

Mhmm. — you

know, the January six cases, more people indicted in Georgia than we even thought. We learn new details that are pretty dramatic and they pile up to be kind of really interesting. You know? I mean, that I think could produce like you said, a cumulative effect or a good amount of weight that makes him seem like a lost cause to the middle of the electric.

We will find out the answer to all of these questions, a b Stoddard. Thank you so much for joining me.

Thanks as always, Charlie Sykes to be with you.

And a b Stoddard’s associate editor and culminate at real clear politics, and thank you all for listening to today’s Bulwark podcast. I’m Charlie Sykes. We will be back tomorrow and we’ll do this all over again. The polar podcast is produced by Katie Cooper, and engineered and edited by Jason Brown. Dissecting politics with exclusive interviews, commentary, and humor, useful lady’s with Katie Halper and Aaron Mate.

I really don’t like sharks, and I think we live in a very sharky gandistic world. Quote one thing to keep in mind is sharks are not out there trying to eat surfers and swimmers. They’d much rather eat fish, but in many cases they mistake us for their actual prey. When they do bite, they usually move on. That’s supposed to make us feel better?

Useful idiots. Wherever you listen.