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Get Ready for the Longest General Election Ever

January 24, 2024
Notes
Transcript
New Hampshire’s come and gone, and while Nikki Haley hasn’t dropped out of the primary, the overwhelming consensus is that the general election between Donald Trump and President Joe Biden has begun.

The gang breaks down the implications of Tuesday’s results, including Trump’s angry reaction to Haley staying in the race. Plus, they react to Tim Scott’s sad endorsement of Trump and the current state of Dean Phillips primary challenge to Biden.

This episode is sponsored by by BetterHelp. Give online therapy a try at betterhelp.com/THENEXTLEVEL and get on your way to being your best self.

This transcript was generated automatically and may contain errors and omissions. Ironically, the transcription service has particular problems with the word “bulwark,” so you may see it mangled as “Bullard,” “Boulart,” or even “bull word.” Enjoy!
  • Speaker 1
    0:00:05

    Hello, everyone. Welcome to the next level. I’m Jay VL here with my best friends. Tim Miller and Sarah Longwell of the Bulwark. Guys, New Hampshire is done and in the books, and maybe a tiny bit surprising.
  • Speaker 1
    0:00:21

    And now, you know, there’s a month to go. Anything could happen, and we’re not gonna to clear this thing over because that’s what the Democrats want us to do. I you know what, Sarah, I wanna go to you first. Just initial thoughts. Talk to me.
  • Speaker 2
    0:00:35

    Ryan Binkley, he still has a shot. Don’t say it. So have you thought about Binkley? Binkley’s still in. Yeah.
  • Speaker 1
    0:00:44

    I have no idea who he is.
  • Speaker 3
    0:00:45

    I’ve not thought that much about Binkley.
  • Speaker 2
    0:00:47

    Can I just tell you? Binkley first came to my attention live on television actually not live, but I was taping PBS show, and this woman in Iowa kept bringing up Ryan Binkley as someone she really liked. And at some point, I had to stop her and say, Ma’am, I’m sorry, but I don’t know who that is. He’s gotten scant attention, but he is some Texas pastor and, he is still in this race. Anyway, so is Nikki Haley, my first thoughts are are straightforward and simple.
  • Speaker 2
    0:01:14

    The race is over. Nikki Haley as she’s moving going on, I’m not sure why. She’s gonna get killed in her home state. I I would like to take bets with all of you on whether or not she actually goes through with South Carolina. It sounds like she’s got the dollars.
  • Speaker 2
    0:01:28

    She thinks that getting in, you know, eleven points is enough to, what is it? What do they say? Punch the ticket? Out of New Hampshire.
  • Speaker 3
    0:01:36

    Take it to ride. Yeah.
  • Speaker 2
    0:01:37

    I do have bad news though, which is if you look at any of the numbers and you separate them out between independence and Republicans, she did terrible with Republicans.
  • Speaker 3
    0:01:49

    Horrible.
  • Speaker 2
    0:01:50

    Horrible. Her voters are all independents. And on declared voters, many of whom as we know from the focus groups we’ve done are MSNBC watching Democrats who turned out to vote against Trump. These voters do not exist in these other states. There’s no path There’s no math.
  • Speaker 2
    0:02:04

    God bless her for fighting.
  • Speaker 1
    0:02:06

    Wait. So you’re saying that Republicans are the ones who want to elect Donald Trump?
  • Speaker 2
    0:02:11

    I am indeed.
  • Speaker 1
    0:02:12

    Because that’s not what I’ve been told. I have seen things from Twitter. And in fact, Nikki Hilly last night in her don’t call it a victory speech, specifically said that it’s the Democrats who wanna ignite Donald Trump and make the is that not true?
  • Speaker 2
    0:02:25

    Here’s the thing. It is a little bit true. Right? There is an element of, like, du hold on a second, Tim. I can see your face, grumpy face.
  • Speaker 3
    0:02:34

    Not really true at all. But go ahead. Let’s hear let’s hear it. Let’s hear it.
  • Speaker 2
    0:02:37

    Forget Demeritz. Does Joe Biden? Has his plan all along been? Yeah. Like, it’s gonna be me and Trump.
  • Speaker 2
    0:02:44

    It’s gonna be Trump again. And, I think, of course, I
  • Speaker 1
    0:02:47

    think That’s different than wanting Trump, though. Right? That’s just recognizing reality.
  • Speaker 2
    0:02:52

    They think they can be trump.
  • Speaker 1
    0:02:53

    Why spend your time planning for Nikki Haley when you know she’s not gonna win?
  • Speaker 2
    0:02:57

    Okay. But they think they can be trump, and I think they like the contrast. That is different though from saying all Democrats want Trump. What what we know, right, is like it’s different. There’s a political calculation of who do I think I can beat And I think that’s in there.
  • Speaker 2
    0:03:12

    That’s different though from saying Democrats want Trump. It’s more that we know this is where the Republican party is. We know that’s who they’re gonna nominate, And by nominating lunatics, that has set Democrats up, to win a lot of races that they might not have had Republicans put up normal people
  • Speaker 3
    0:03:27

    I I think that most Democrats want Trump to be in jail. I think that’s like almost a Yeah. Unanimous, view of Democrats from Joe Biden all the way down to your rank and file person in in wherever, Frankonia, New Hampshire. Okay. That crossed over yesterday to vote for Nikki Haley who they hate.
  • Speaker 3
    0:03:47

    So I just I I think that Democrats basically want Donald Trump to go away, and I do bristle when assholes that have provided cover for Donald Trump for years on the Republican side are, like, media and the Democrats that ever Trumpers really want Trump. He sustains them. I’m like, we have an entire media outlet dedicated to opposing Donald Trump. Like, we we we’re all, Sarah, at least, and I’m on a board of groups that exist solely to stop Donald Trump. Like, all my whole brain has been consumed with for years is getting rid of this piece of shit that is a wart on the ass of our country.
  • Speaker 3
    0:04:19

    And like, so yeah, I wanted to go away. I want him to you know what? I want it to happen to him. Everybody knows. So please stop accusing me of wind down on Trump.
  • Speaker 3
    0:04:26

    I don’t want it for the content. I don’t want the retweets that bad. It’d be fine. I could I could write about something else. I promise.
  • Speaker 3
    0:04:32

    So Can
  • Speaker 1
    0:04:33

    I Can I can I throw a little bit of data at you guys? Please. Because I’ve been somewhat obsessed with this question for the last, like, eighteen months since started coming from the the Twitter feeds and National Review, and we we did a poll of Bulwark subscribers. Not science, but, you know, few thousand people responded, and I specifically frame the question as, would you prefer the Donald Trump was the nominee. If it meant that Joe Biden had a better chance of winning reelection, or would you prefer it with some other Republican if it meant that that Republican then had a better chance to win election.
  • Speaker 1
    0:05:12

    And it was like eighty six to twelve or something like that. Yeah. That they they preferred Trump not be the nominee. They were like, we’ll take DeSantis Haley Scott, whoever it is, even if it means they beat our guy, Joe Biden, and I think that seems to be the sentiment.
  • Speaker 3
    0:05:28

    Yeah. And it was ninety four to six last night in the exit polls about debt of Democrats who crossed over to vote for Nikki Haley So, anyway, this is, it’s very obvious what the truth is in all this. I think that Sarah’s point, I do agree that Joe Biden’s been planning on running against Donald Trump, and that’s because Trump just one in the largest landslide in the history of the Republican primary. Okay? And and this is another thing that I’m mad about morning when you’re looking at analysis.
  • Speaker 3
    0:05:53

    I was on very late last night with MSNBC. It’s a lot of happy talk on the left about the weakness of the Donald Trump co, coalition. We can talk about that. I’m happy that there is there are some green shoots for sure. And people on Twitter mad at me because I called it a landslide.
  • Speaker 3
    0:06:09

    And, you know, left us being like Donald Trump his bait was basically it was the president. And he he only got fifty four percent. He only won by eleven. This is a sign of his great weakness. I guess it’s a sign of some weakness.
  • Speaker 3
    0:06:22

    It is a sign of some weakness, but the guy tried a fucking coup. He has ninety one indictments against him. And he’s the only person ever in the Republican primary to sweep the first two contests ever. It’s never happened
  • Speaker 1
    0:06:35

    to me. He’s gonna sweep all of them.
  • Speaker 3
    0:06:37

    Gonna sleep all of them. He’s gonna be the first one ever to do it. Okay? And, like, I that we’ve never had a race like this for, even George w Bush in nineteen ninety nine, who is also a quasi incumbent, you know, running on his his father’s legacy. Had horrible opponents.
  • Speaker 3
    0:06:54

    I I mean, Trump’s at least running against was against running as the governor of Georgia, former governor South Carolina, former ambassador George Bush was running against John McCain, who was like barely a Republican, let’s be honest, and a business guy and the wife of a candidate. George w Bush had no type a you know, class a challengers, he still gets annihilated in New Hampshire by McCain and then loses five other states. So this is unprecedented. When Donald Trump announced his campaign, what, thirteen months ago, around Thanksgiving of twenty twenty two? No one showed up.
  • Speaker 3
    0:07:25

    His family didn’t show up. Olivia Newssey wrote the great story for there from Mar a lago where it’s like brick man was in the VIP section and and and the strategist were all whispering to her. About how it’s how sad it is when Brickman is the only guy that shows up, Matt Gates was pretending he had to wash his hair that day. He pretended that he that of his even Matt Gates, like, pretended that there was bad weather in his flight. He was losing to DeSantis.
  • Speaker 3
    0:07:49

    So I just sure. There were elements of this that were inevitable. JBL saw this coming. Many of us saw this coming pretty quickly, but like, there could have been a campaign against him. Nobody decided to run a campaign.
  • Speaker 3
    0:08:03

    He’s extremely dangerous. It’s unbelievably dangerous. It’s the first time we’re gonna ever have a nominee of a party that is that is threatening to end the constitutional republic as we know it. And, like, he’s winning pretty handily. He’s winning pretty handily.
  • Speaker 3
    0:08:18

    So I’m fucking annoyed when people are like, well, just focus on his weakness. Just like, oh, Donna, this is such terrible news for Donald Trump. It wasn’t. It’s not great. There’s some warning signs for Trump, but it’s really bad for us that this this just malignant, felonious piece of shit is gonna win all fifty states and basically every county.
  • Speaker 3
    0:08:38

    I mean, he Nikki Haley won one county last night, and she won one in Iowa. And he’s gonna win, like, ninety nine point eight percent of the counties nationwide. So, like, it’s not great, guys. It’s not great. We can beat him.
  • Speaker 3
    0:08:54

    But let’s not pretend, like, it’s like, oh, it was all happy talk. It it took at one thirty in the morning. I was like, guys, are I mean, aren’t we a little bit concerned? I I just I I I get a little bit. I feel like this needs to be said.
  • Speaker 3
    0:09:07

    I guess maybe on cable news, they’re not supposed to every hour, be like, this is crazy. This is crazy. How is this happening? But I I feel like that is more more called for after what happened last night, they’re like, let’s look at Hillsborough County and how Donald Trump has some weakness there. Yeah.
  • Speaker 3
    0:09:22

    No.
  • Speaker 1
    0:09:23

    Instead of the entire media just walks around like, you know, just like any other race. Just like two thousand and four. Boy, remember the two thousand and four race? Not all that different. I so I want to ask a question, of you too.
  • Speaker 1
    0:09:39

    Because I’ve I’ve written about it for the newsletter, which is not out yet. So you have an excuse for not having read it, Sarah Longwell.
  • Speaker 2
    0:09:45

    Great. I read yesterday’s. Go ahead.
  • Speaker 1
    0:09:48

    Yeah. On your own, or were you prompted?
  • Speaker 2
    0:09:50

    You told me I had to read. That’s what I did.
  • Speaker 1
    0:09:52

    Okay. I think that Nikki Haley’s forty three percent is actually enough to give her a platform to be Chris Christie for a month. And that if she were to be Chris Christie for a month, it would do enormous damage to Trump for the general election, and that she She could choose to do that. This isn’t like saying like if only Nikki Haley could turn into an elephant, then it’ll be fine. Like, no.
  • Speaker 1
    0:10:25

    No. Like, this is this is a possible thing. There are plenty of people who’ve done this. Adam Kinzinger has done this. Chris Christie has done this.
  • Speaker 1
    0:10:32

    There are sixteen other Republican officials who worked at high levels for Trump who who have done some version of this. Nikki Haley could absolutely choose to do that. She could spend the next four weeks doing three town halls a day and going on every TV show and just saying Donald Trump is unfit to be president. He can’t be president again. We cannot do this.
  • Speaker 1
    0:10:52

    And if she did that, I think it would really hurt him for the general election. It would it created again, the permission structures for all these normal Republicans to vote for Biden or at least not vote for Trump, create permission structures for other former Trump officials to speak out against him. It’s it’s not crazy, and it wouldn’t it wouldn’t hurt her any more than just being sick ofantic would would hurt Like, Graham, her career is over. She will never win another election. Right?
  • Speaker 2
    0:11:20

    I think that’s true. Now, here it’s funny. Let me ask you a question though. Does she endorse Trump after that at the end? No.
  • Speaker 2
    0:11:25

    She doesn’t, right, in your scenario.
  • Speaker 1
    0:11:26

    In in my scenario, right, the choice she could make for America, if she were a patriot Yes. Would be to to make this case and then at the end say, look, it should be great. Be perfect if she endorsed Joe Biden, but better if she said I’m not voting for Donald Trump, and I don’t think you should too. And, you know, we I will vote for Republic, and I’ll work for good Republicans down the ballot because I believe in party. I’m not a Democrat.
  • Speaker 1
    0:11:49

    Right? She could do all that if she wanted to. It’d be better if she just endorsed Biden. But she could do this work. This work would be important.
  • Speaker 1
    0:11:56

    I think, and I think her forty three percent gives her a platform to do that for four weeks.
  • Speaker 2
    0:12:01

    And going into her home state. So here, I was thinking about this in the car on the way down, which is, I was thinking about a slightly different way, which I was just thinking about, was composing a tweet in my head that said, if Nikki Haley goes Kamikazi on Trump right now and refuses to endorse him. Like, I will be like Liz Cheney for her, the way I feel about Liz Cheney. Like, I will love for forever. I will forgive all sins.
  • Speaker 2
    0:12:24

    I would. I if she
  • Speaker 3
    0:12:26

    was that was my thinking face about whether I could do that. And I just I just briefly decided in an instant that I could not. But I’m happy that you got go ahead.
  • Speaker 2
    0:12:34

    If she if she does what JBL’s talking about, she says he’s on fit says all the things she wants to say, and she makes a hard case and then refuses to endorse him. Yeah. Yeah. Because I think
  • Speaker 1
    0:12:45

    it could matter. Right? Do you do you agree with me?
  • Speaker 2
    0:12:47

    So, well, here’s I mean, I I I do not think what well, I forget what word you use to just to signify a large amount, but I think it does it make a marginal impact? Yes. The same way that, the reason I wrote that New York Times piece talking about all of the things that the generals and the cabinet members and the people who work for Trump have said and why they need to speak out now. It does make a difference to marginal voters. The green shoots that Tim is talking about is the number of sort of right leaning independence and soft GOP voters that helped get Joe Biden elected that are part of the anti trump coalition They are out there now saying even more forcefully, they will under no circumstances vote for Donald Trump, in twenty twenty four, which is as they should And I think that Donald Trump, it is my fervent hope that he finds himself presiding over what is obviously a much more energized republican party, but a much smaller Republican party.
  • Speaker 2
    0:13:40

    They are they it is it will become a rump party that is, you know, devoted singularly to Trump that nobody else can sort of inherit that level of enthusiasm, but it will be a smaller party. And that is where the work starts. Right? The work starts here today of siphoning off those people of helping to build the permission structures to move them away from the Republican Party, this mega version of the Republican Party, and people like Nikki, could be central to that if she were willing to do it. I, the former optimist who’s had it beaten out of me by reality over and over again, suspect that’s not what’s happening.
  • Speaker 2
    0:14:14

    Although I will say her speech last night was interesting. I mean, I did think it sounded like she was She wasn’t burning her boats, but she was, like But wasn’t
  • Speaker 3
    0:14:25

    the same. I this is the thing. I I just feel like we’re cursed. And, like, I’m I’m I’m just living in a time warp where we relive twenty sixteen over and over again. Like, was her speech meaningfully different from The kind of last couple speeches that Marco Rubio or Ted Cruz gave in twenty sixteen or that Scott Walker gave right before he dropped out.
  • Speaker 1
    0:14:47

    Oh, I it was much softer than anything Rubio and Chris
  • Speaker 3
    0:14:51

    said. Right.
  • Speaker 1
    0:14:52

    I mean, she has not said anything like Marco Rubio who called him a con man who was out to destroy American and couldn’t be trusted with nuclear codes.
  • Speaker 2
    0:15:00

    That’s true. But the the bar for Fidelity now or the bar for loyalty is much higher than it was back then. Fair. Back then, you could torch Trump and still get let back on the team. And now, I mean, we didn’t we haven’t talked yet about his absolutely unhinged way he was responding to the fact that Nikki Haley was claiming not victory, but, you know, a because she did
  • Speaker 3
    0:15:24

    sort of to half.
  • Speaker 2
    0:15:25

    Yeah. She Will Saletan did she did sort of over perform and yet failed to clear the bar she needed to keep going. Like both of those things are true. And so it sends just like enough of a weird mixed message, and so he’s pissed about it that he didn’t romp the way he romped in Iowa by thirty points. And so he started to, you know, go full insane.
  • Speaker 2
    0:15:45

    She, if she were to win, she would be investigated immediately and That kind of
  • Speaker 3
    0:15:50

    I just I I don’t I wanna talk about crazy trouble, but can I just give my just on the Haley speech? Just like the thing in my, like, big takeaway from it. Is though is just I can’t help but be frustrated and angry again in another person, another group of people. But the Haley thing couldn’t that have been the speech he was given for six months?
  • Speaker 2
    0:16:07

    Oh, totally.
  • Speaker 3
    0:16:08

    Like, that’s the thing that fucking bugs me so much. Right? It’s like I I I I think that my Republican friends, my Republican consultant friends, the the handful that still listen to his podcast and talk to me are like, well, you know, if you go if you attack Trump too hard, you become Chris Christie. I’m like, well, I, you know, not no. There was there’s a medium ground between Chris Christie and what Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis did in this campaign, which was not meaningfully challenged Trump.
  • Speaker 3
    0:16:34

    And Nikki Haley got under his skin last night and I don’t think it would have made a difference. I don’t think that she becomes a nominee, but I do think that she could have done just as well as she did, which was according to exit polls, get twenty five percent of Republicans, even if that’s off a little bit, even if it’s a third of Republicans. I think that she could have still got thirty three percent of Republican votes running an actual campaign against Trump that that took him on directly, that trolled him over his dementia, that that that called him a loser that actually kind of put him on his back heels a little bit and made him run through the paces, but they didn’t do that. They did the same thing as twenty teen, they did nothing. They play they’re they’re like, anybody that suggested they attack and be like, oh, the the base likes him so much.
  • Speaker 3
    0:17:16

    I just have to let him call me bird brain and Let me call let him call me a moron while I talk about how great he is, and and and and then in the last gasp when the campaign’s over already, say the truth about him. And like we they they all did that in twenty sixteen. It’s the same shit that that these other guys did in twenty sixteen, maybe not exactly the same tone etcetera, but the same trajectory.
  • Speaker 2
    0:17:37

    To see if he just did
  • Speaker 3
    0:17:38

    it? Yeah.
  • Speaker 2
    0:17:38

    I know. To say that he just did it. He was like, these guys all bend the knee, kiss the ring, whatever. And like six days later, he kissed the ring.
  • Speaker 3
    0:17:44

    I know. So that’s the frustrating part to me.
  • Speaker 1
    0:17:46

    Tim, what what do you think she said last night that got under Trump’s skin? What part of what she did? Like, do you think bothered him?
  • Speaker 3
    0:17:54

    Well, I think that the appearance of, like, acting like it was a good night, just just like, and that that he you know, is is not undefeated that he’s not undefeated. You know, I think that he wanted full submission. Right? So I think for starters, there was that. But I do think that the dementia stuff, you know, like talking about him not being on tele oh, when he’s off teleprompter, like, she does she goes out there and does the joke.
  • Speaker 3
    0:18:19

    About, you know, how she didn’t do security on January six and the crowd laughs. Trump doesn’t like to be laughed at, you know? Like, the crowd laughs at him. So I think that stuff got under skin again. And it wasn’t, like, it wasn’t next Secret Podcast level attacks, but it was, you know, she was poking him in a way that she’d been unwilling to before.
  • Speaker 3
    0:18:38

    So I think that’s it. And I I told this, so I’ll give you the bridge person guy said this last night with Bill, but like When you win, you want it to be your night. Even Saint Mitt Romney got very mad at John Huntsman in New Hampshire after we gave our third place victory speech and then had fetti cannons go off. And my friends who are with it in the room was like, that drove me crazy. So if even sober, mitt you know, can get a little annoyed when other people try to take their shine on a big night, childless emotional trump, you know.
  • Speaker 3
    0:19:08

    So I think kind of it was a combination of both six.
  • Speaker 1
    0:19:11

    So I I have made my pitch that this is a choice that she could make that this choice would be meaningful and that it is not like asking a pig to fly. Like, it’s a it’s a real thing that other people have done that she could also do.
  • Speaker 3
    0:19:23

    Agree.
  • Speaker 1
    0:19:25

    Give me your odds that she does this. I’ll give you mine. Zero point zero percent.
  • Speaker 3
    0:19:30

    Oh. Oh, okay. So my first, I’m gonna give you my blink Malcolm Gladwell answer was six percent. And then as I was sitting here mulling, trying to mow myself into, could I get to eleven? Could it be a little more than ten percent?
  • Speaker 3
    0:19:44

    So somewhere in between six and eleven percent chance for me.
  • Speaker 2
    0:19:48

    Yeah. So my gut was to say forty percent and then immediately go Sarah Longwell you’re you can’t keep doing this to yourself.
  • Speaker 1
    0:19:58

    And and, to answer your question, Sarah Longwell do we think the odds are that she makes it to the South Carolina primary, to the voting in South Kakalaki?
  • Speaker 2
    0:20:08

    So here’s the thing. So so like I said, no path, no math. The one thing she does have is money. And I guess the question’s gonna be is like what does eleven points behind Trump get you? And so today, she’s gonna figure out if a bunch of money guys, call her up and say, you gotta hang in there.
  • Speaker 2
    0:20:28

    And if they do, right? It’s easy for her to talk herself into. Well, look, I can campaign for another month. I just think the psychology of and and also she’ll probably make phone calls to South Carolina. A lot of people she knows there.
  • Speaker 2
    0:20:42

    I will say No big names in South Carolina have endorsed her. They’ve all endorsed Trump.
  • Speaker 3
    0:20:48

    The opposite Ralph Norman Oh, yeah. Ralph. Good about Ralph Norman. Alrighty. Insurrection is Ralph Norman.
  • Speaker 3
    0:20:53

    So she has she had general Bulwark and Ralph Norman covering her insurrectionist flag.
  • Speaker 2
    0:20:58

    What are the chances Trump puts a hard press on Norman and gets him to retrace?
  • Speaker 1
    0:21:03

    I mean, much higher than Hundred percent.
  • Speaker 3
    0:21:05

    Yeah. Yeah.
  • Speaker 2
    0:21:05

    Yeah. And so
  • Speaker 1
    0:21:06

    fifty percent. Right.
  • Speaker 3
    0:21:07

    I She
  • Speaker 1
    0:21:08

    goes down to South Carolina and all the people who she came up with and who she she presided over as leader of the party in the state Yeah. Or against them.
  • Speaker 3
    0:21:16

    Oh, he didn’t really like it that much anyway because that she was like, you know, because a, she was a woman, a minority woman who who jumped the line. To win a primary. But, you know, so a lot of the old boys club folks don’t like her anyway.
  • Speaker 2
    0:21:27

    That’s right. Instead of dropping out now, I could see her dropping out three weeks from now. Because I could if she’s got the money, and it really is a question of what she’s hearing today from donors, but if donors are willing to show up for her, like, and go make the case against Trump, I could see that being intoxicating, but I don’t think if it looks like she’s gonna get hammered by thirty points that she ultimately pulls the trigger.
  • Speaker 3
    0:21:50

    I’ll throw out another calculation that’s just worth thinking about because I really, this is all just analyzing Nikki Haley ecology. Like, we’re not doing political analysis here because the campaign’s over. And unlike Ron DeSantis, who still harbors delusions that he might be able to run again in twenty twenty eight and who still is the governor of a state has real responsibility and jobs. This party very obviously is not voting for Nikki Haley. I mean, her her coalition last night, as as Sarah mentioned, but just put a finer point on it was, you know, six percent of the electorate was Democrats.
  • Speaker 3
    0:22:21

    She won almost all of them. You know, forty percent of the electorates was independence. She won two thirds of them, and and fifty percent of the electorate was Republicans and she got slaughtered. Absolutely. Absolutely, epically slaughtered.
  • Speaker 3
    0:22:34

    She did John Huntman, John Casey levels with with Republicans. Like, not, like, there was no signs of light there for her. So, given that, you know, she’s smart enough to know that, like, there’s, this isn’t happening for her in twenty twenty eight. Right? So, and, and given Trump’s behavior last night, which we can talk about, the VP seems probably off the table.
  • Speaker 2
    0:22:58

    Never never on the table. Never on the table.
  • Speaker 3
    0:23:00

    Yeah. She’s got nothing better to do, eight point zero. Literally. Like, if she quits the race, we talked about this about the Chris Christie line and, you know, where he’s like, you leave the governor’s office. You turn the lights off.
  • Speaker 3
    0:23:11

    Nobody calls you. I mean, that’s her on steroids. Like, she had every camera in the world on her face today. If she quits the race tomorrow, she goes back to Sullivan’s island to her new house, with the with her husband, which is she’s an empty nester now, and she sits there. Like, and she’s like, I don’t know, making breakfast for herself, and watching daytime soaps or what?
  • Speaker 3
    0:23:30

    I don’t know.
  • Speaker 1
    0:23:31

    I She’ll be on, like, the board of ExxonMobil in five minutes. Won’t she?
  • Speaker 3
    0:23:35

    I guess. Yeah. She could call around. She has some zooms. With her business friends about Bella ports.
  • Speaker 1
    0:23:41

    Cash money.
  • Speaker 3
    0:23:42

    Sure. But but but it’s not, but there’s no juice in it. There’s no juice. Nobody wants Connor to be CEO over on a company or run a startup. There’s nothing that gets her.
  • Speaker 3
    0:23:50

    Nobody wants to interview. Like she’s gonna do nothing. Like she’ll have she has nothing else to do. And so I do think that that’s an argument for staying around.
  • Speaker 1
    0:23:57

    Yeah. So just sit around being rich for no show jobs. Who would wanna do that? That’s crazy. She could start a charity and, like, help feed school children near.
  • Speaker 3
    0:24:06

    I’m not saying there are other things she could do. I’m saying that I don’t think there’s anything else that she would want to do. I think that her days would feel very empty compared to how they felt the last year.
  • Speaker 2
    0:24:16

    Yeah. Because to run for president, you have to imagine that you can be When you imagine that you are president, you are thinking about, like, how will I engage with world leaders and how will I change the course of history as the first one? I mean, like, the levels of grand jury that you have to abandon, I mean
  • Speaker 3
    0:24:34

    And how will I redesign the office on Air Force One You know?
  • Speaker 1
    0:24:38

    You know, I’m I am sorry, but, getting rich for no work and then being able to do meaningful philanthropy and your community with that money seems like an amazing way to spend your life. One last psychology question on Nikki, and then we’re gonna move on to Trump.
  • Speaker 3
    0:24:52

    Okay.
  • Speaker 1
    0:24:54

    So, Sarah, you have always made, an analogy which really spoke to me, which is the politics is a lot like the high school cafeteria. And, like, when all of a sudden, all the people used to sit with at lunch, shun you, and turn their backs to you, and you gotta go sit by yourself, that that’s a really powerful thing to people, and it shapes it shapes how they engage with the world.
  • Speaker 2
    0:25:17

    Drivers are powerful. Tribalism is power.
  • Speaker 1
    0:25:19

    That’s where Nikki is. Right? She has now walked into the cafeteria, and all of these people Tim Scott, Nancy Mae, Donald Trump who she used to hobnobath and work with, they have, like, slid their trays over on the table, and there is no seat for her. I would think that for most people, the reaction to that would be fuck you all anyway. Like, I don’t want any part of you.
  • Speaker 1
    0:25:44

    Right? And yet again, I just don’t see that from her. I I would bet a watch that she endorses trump, and I suspect that her campaign against him won’t be all that hard over the next four weeks. Like, you know, she’ll she’ll poke a little bit, but she’s not gonna like, make the argument that he is unfit to be president. And What is the psychology?
  • Speaker 1
    0:26:09

    What is the psychology of that? The the, like because here’s the thing, she must realize they’re never gonna let her back into the lunch table. She’s done.
  • Speaker 2
    0:26:18

    So this is what I wonder though. So when you say she must know, I mean, I don’t know. She must know that the Republican Party has lost its mind and doesn’t want to elect candidates like her anymore, She doesn’t seem to know that. Like, it’s not you can just go look at the exit polls or the, you know, AP vote cast and see the people who voted for her are not Republicans. And that that’s not her base.
  • Speaker 2
    0:26:41

    And so if she could she could look at that and she could say, you don’t wanna do? I’m gonna do what Liz Cheney’s doing. And I’m gonna sleep great at night, and she could do that and still be on all the corporate boards. Yeah. And she gets to have her integrity.
  • Speaker 2
    0:26:53

    She gets to do the thing. We know because Nikki Haley has flip flops so much back and forth, but she has condemned. You
  • Speaker 1
    0:26:58

    know what she really thinks because she
  • Speaker 2
    0:27:00

    told us. And so she hates Trump. She does think he’s unfit. It’s fun and good Ron DeSantis, like, good for your soul to say the thing that you think. And so that’s why I always put it a little higher than you guys just because I to me, it seems self evident that this club’s never gonna have you for real.
  • Speaker 2
    0:27:21

    Now the question is, right? So and Trump’s torching her last night, and I was, to me, that was meaningful. Both how she spoke, which was harder than she has spoken before, which if you’re about to drop out and you’re looking for how am I gonna make that’s that’s not what she was doing. She was sort of saying you’re gonna have to fight me for this, which, by the way, when he does, it’s just another piece of analysis here on why this is so hard for her. Like, if she wants to be the one on one in the race and have all his fire, like, she’s a really dealt with that yet.
  • Speaker 2
    0:27:51

    And when dot Ron DeSantis got it for, like, a month with old putting fingers, and that was it. He was done.
  • Speaker 3
    0:27:58

    He’s broken. He was a broken person. Do you see the video of him with his kid? Last night, he put up on on X.
  • Speaker 2
    0:28:04

    I did.
  • Speaker 3
    0:28:04

    It’s like it was like a whole new it was just it was unbelievable. It was like somebody that has just had the weight of a thousand anvils dropped off of their shoulder. Like, his skin tone was better.
  • Speaker 2
    0:28:14

    Everything
  • Speaker 3
    0:28:15

    was better. Like, his little smile was like almost human.
  • Speaker 1
    0:28:18

    Maybe Ron DeSantis is getting some better help. A quick word from our sponsors. This show is sponsored by Better Help You know, right after the new year begins, everyone starts talking about what they want to do differently in the year to come. But instead of obsessing about how you need to reinvent yourself, it can be much healthier to take a second and focus on everything you’re doing right. That’s why therapy can be so beneficial to your everyday routine because it helps you find your strengths and expand on them rather than make you transform yourself into something you’re not.
  • Speaker 1
    0:28:53

    Hint hint, Ron DeSantis. Maybe you finally organized one part of your space and you want to tackle another, or maybe you’re taking your supplements every morning, and now you want to actually eat breakfast too. Therapy is a great way to identify all the good you’re already doing and help grow those aspects of your life out so you can become the best version of yourself. It’s improved my life and the lives of my friends and family around me helping us all deal with the crazy world we live in. And if you wanna give therapy a try, Betterhelp is a great option.
  • Speaker 1
    0:29:23

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  • Speaker 1
    0:29:50

    H e l p dot com slash the next level.
  • Speaker 3
    0:29:56

    Was great. That’s why you do the ad reads. Not me. I gotta say. You’re in charge of the reads.
  • Speaker 1
    0:29:59

    We’ve never had an ad be more perfectly targeted to the moment on the show. Then I was talking about how suddenly Ron DeSantis looks at peace with himself.
  • Speaker 2
    0:30:10

    Yeah. Mickey Haley could get herself some of that. Yeah. He’s peace of mind.
  • Speaker 1
    0:30:15

    We’re gonna trans we’re gonna move on to Trump in a minute, but you wanted to I saw you chomping at the bit there.
  • Speaker 3
    0:30:20

    I also understand what you’re saying. About how you would think psychologically that Nicki would just wanna go find a new table, and it’d be a nice table. You know, Sarah would be there. George Conway would be there.
  • Speaker 1
    0:30:34

    Adam Kizzinger. The kids are kissing her.
  • Speaker 3
    0:30:36

    I have a gentleman. Would have her on her show if she wanted to. She
  • Speaker 1
    0:30:40

    Here to Licto.
  • Speaker 3
    0:30:42

    Yeah. Like, it’d be a nice table. It’s our table’s fine, but That
  • Speaker 1
    0:30:45

    guy is a foreign exchange student and he is wild.
  • Speaker 3
    0:30:48

    Yeah. But I don’t, I don’t know. I I just I I I I I can’t I can’t get inside the brain. But I I think it’s just this net it’s a natural pull. Right?
  • Speaker 3
    0:31:00

    Of of just kind of wanting to still have influence within your tribe and not wanting to have to go through a you know, a pretty serious identity shift, which which I’ve re we’ve written plenty about. That that requires know, looking at yourself a different way. So I I don’t we’ll see. I’d love for her to surprise me. I have friends, many friends who are in Haley World.
  • Speaker 3
    0:31:20

    I consulted for in twenty fourteen. Some of them might listen, tell her to do it. Water’s warm. Just do it. Fuck it.
  • Speaker 3
    0:31:28

    Go full.
  • Speaker 1
    0:31:28

    It’s never gonna be allowed back in anyway.
  • Speaker 3
    0:31:30

    This is your moment.
  • Speaker 1
    0:31:31

    Is the thing. Right? All of these people who have had the choice placed in front of them and chose not to take it, like Paul Ryan who did this. Kevin McCarthy, these got you buy yourself what? Another twelve months at the lunch table before they actually fully excommunicate you.
  • Speaker 1
    0:31:51

    This is like you’re dead with them anyway.
  • Speaker 3
    0:31:56

    Be part
  • Speaker 2
    0:31:57

    of the solution, not the problem. We’re right here.
  • Speaker 1
    0:31:59

    That’s right. Alright. So the real problem. Hi. It’s me.
  • Speaker 1
    0:32:02

    I’m the problem. Donald Trump, with his speech last night, and I regret to inform you that at this performance, the role of Chris Christie will be played by Tim Scott. Who stood behind trump with that weird rictus forced smile of his. And wow. That was uncomfortable to watch.
  • Speaker 1
    0:32:26

    I actually couldn’t take my eyes off of Tim Scott. I I really do wish Trump had gone the whole hog. And told him to go get on the plane. There was a moment in this speech where Trump is then the lep this is full dictator level groveling. And he talks about how much Tim’s gonna how much you must hate her to have endorsed me instead, Tim.
  • Speaker 1
    0:32:49

    And Tim Scott’s like freezes for half a second and then says, no, it’s just how much I love you.
  • Speaker 2
    0:32:55

    Did you watch the video of that where he like runs around to the podium to just shout. No, it’s how much I love you.
  • Speaker 1
    0:33:01

    What an astonishing I mean, this is like something from the death of Stalin.
  • Speaker 2
    0:33:06

    Yeah.
  • Speaker 1
    0:33:07

    Yeah. What do you guys think?
  • Speaker 3
    0:33:08

    Did you also see when Trump was making fun of Tim Scott about his engagement? Nobody thinks Tim Scott getting engaged is funnier than Donald Trump. I will tell you that. Yeah.
  • Speaker 1
    0:33:17

    Like, Donald Trump is laughing that this guy is now pretending to be straight and getting married in order to because he thinks that that’ll make me pick him for VP.
  • Speaker 3
    0:33:27

    I don’t I don’t I don’t have any thoughts or comments about his sexuality. I have no idea what’s going on.
  • Speaker 1
    0:33:31

    So I’m I’m I’m saying that this is what Donald Trump is thinking. Yeah.
  • Speaker 3
    0:33:35

    I know.
  • Speaker 1
    0:33:35

    I’m not saying that I am commenting on because Donald Trump’s thought bubble is that.
  • Speaker 3
    0:33:39

    Yeah. I just whatever it is Donald Trump is like, I can Donald Trump’s head. This guy’s like, this guy is getting married to someone for me. He is shunning the person that appointed him to the senate for me. I’m making him grovel in front of the audience for me.
  • Speaker 3
    0:33:57

    I mean, I
  • Speaker 2
    0:33:58

    And he looks so happy to do it. She was so happy to do it.
  • Speaker 1
    0:34:02

    Hey, Tim. Tell them how much you hate Nikki. Right?
  • Speaker 3
    0:34:05

    I mean, that’s literally what Trump did.
  • Speaker 2
    0:34:07

    Guys, I I I will say sometimes you wanna laugh at this stuff because it is like it’s like the word gob smacking. Right? That’s what that that that fits. Except that it’s so dangerous. It’s like it is so scary to watch the way that people capitulate with such glee.
  • Speaker 2
    0:34:25

    And they do it Like, the thing about Tim Scott is that you can see him overdoing it. Right? Like, it’s not comfortable for him exactly. Overcompensating in this way that you can visibly identify. And you know, like, there’s no lengths to which he won’t go.
  • Speaker 2
    0:34:45

    To help trump because he wants he wants to be VP so bad. Like, and this is where people I I’ve been wondering, like, well, what is the next five months about, like, as Trump just gets coronated and whatever. Though extent to which there will be a parade of leaks of, oh, they’re considering this guy, and maybe Marco Rubio, and maybe
  • Speaker 3
    0:35:05

    That’s Marco last night.
  • Speaker 2
    0:35:07

    Yeah. Sure. And I’ve also heard Ben Carson and, you know, they’re floating names around. They’re gonna do this to the media. Everybody’s gonna get their little met and Trump is gonna make them bravble and come to him, and just absolutely debase themselves to become his vice president.
  • Speaker 3
    0:35:24

    Tim Scott, did you not see the gallows? Did you not see the fucking gallows? Okay.
  • Speaker 1
    0:35:30

    The prize is, like, you get turned into Mike Pence. Go look at Mike Pence.
  • Speaker 3
    0:35:35

    They wanted to hang him. They’re gonna come for you. He’s gonna come. Why do you want this job. You’re also in the senate for what someone’s gonna primary you.
  • Speaker 3
    0:35:46

    I you could just stay a senator for years. You didn’t have to do anything. You could have endorsed nobody. You could gone home to South Carolina
  • Speaker 1
    0:35:54

    and stayed single.
  • Speaker 3
    0:35:55

    Your favorite restaurants and hung out with your new fiance. Could’ve taken her on a little pre honeymoon, you know, you could have gone to the beach. I you could do anything. And you’re up in freezing ass, New Hampshire, like, Like a damn theater kid, trying really hard to get the lead in the play, going up there and being like, please, mister Trump love me. Please.
  • Speaker 3
    0:36:17

    Like, in order to get a job where he would be happy to have you dead, if you do not go along with whatever insane, illegal whim comes to his mind. When he’s the president or what or when he’s, the nominee? That’s the job you want? Fucking. Like, and you’re an idiot, Tim Scott, you are an idiot and a dangerous idiot.
  • Speaker 1
    0:36:38

    Yeah. So I do wonder if these guys have really thought it through. Because so on the one hand, if you are Trump’s VP pick and Trump wins, you’re then placed in a position at which at some point, he’s gonna ask you to do illegal things and you have to defy him or risk the gallows. Right? But if Trump loses, you are then immediately placed in the position where you have to run around no matter what the results were, test to find the fact that Trump did in fact win.
  • Speaker 3
    0:37:12

    Right.
  • Speaker 1
    0:37:12

    And if you say that Trump lost, then you are unpersoned for forever. Like, what is the what is the prize here? What is the what is the crown that they think they get for being Trump’s VP? I don’t understand that.
  • Speaker 3
    0:37:28

    The painting on the wall of the White House, I guess, the paint the the little entry in the history books when, you know, when you’re on the Pedia page of losing vice presidential candidates. It’s like Tim Scott is down there, you know, next to Paul Ryan and Tim Kane, I I I don’t I don’t know. I I I that that is what they want. The the the post election thing is so important because it sounds like you’re the it’s not like in a different situation. Mike Pence, I think, could have talked himself into in twenty sixteen that he would be the heir apparent.
  • Speaker 3
    0:37:57

    So, like, if I’m just a good boy, you know, if I just go along with this and do and and just kind of go along with the crazy, you know, eventually he’ll either win or lose, and then I’ll be the up. I’ll be the good soldier, but we learn from Mike Pence. That’s not that’s not on the table for you. Right? They’re not gonna be interested in you.
  • Speaker 3
    0:38:14

    As the next in line.
  • Speaker 2
    0:38:16

    You know, David Frum had this tweet that I have been thinking about since he did it, which was that Henry the eighth killing his wives. Like, people still kept women kept lining up to be the next wife of the king. Because by the fact that he kept me having them. And I was like, that’s true. Like, that guest the, like, there’s something in human psychology.
  • Speaker 2
    0:38:39

    It’s like, well, it won’t happen to me. I with me, it’ll be different, and I’ll get
  • Speaker 3
    0:38:43

    four, three years of being the queen is better than a lifetime of as being the peasant, I guess.
  • Speaker 2
    0:38:48

    I guess. Maybe. I don’t I don’t know. All I know is Like, Tim Scott was particularly gross to watch, but I also saw Cornan, Sirius Sky, Cornon, come out and endure it. We need to, you know, we need to coalesce around Donald Trump.
  • Speaker 3
    0:39:05

    Cornon will be courting with conviction. Cordin was on to, like, kind of stretch this. He gave a couple quotes that were, like, you know, he was he was noodling, conviction.
  • Speaker 2
    0:39:14

    I bet he regrets not voting for conviction now. Could re but here’s the thing. I wanna just say this. Donald Trump is a terrible, awful person. Unworthy of any office in the United States.
  • Speaker 2
    0:39:28

    But I will say, I believe anybody who endorses Donald Trump at this point, is also unworthy of office in the United States. I don’t care if it’s Chris Sanouni.
  • Speaker 3
    0:39:37

    Forever.
  • Speaker 2
    0:39:37

    It’s forever. Like it is an unforgivable thing to do. And for people who think this is a TDS, never Republican, you know, oh, we’re off the edge. No. No.
  • Speaker 2
    0:39:48

    He did he tried not to leave. We all saw it and you, all you anti antis. At the time, said, get rid of this guy. And then you all endorsed Ron DeSantis, and you all talked about how Trump was totally unacceptable. We are not wrong here.
  • Speaker 2
    0:40:06

    And every Republican who endorses him, Marco Rubio, I don’t care how normal they are in other circumstances. They are unfit and unworthy for office and they should all be voted out.
  • Speaker 3
    0:40:19

    Here here.
  • Speaker 1
    0:40:20

    I mean, If you can’t stand up to Donald Trump because you’re afraid that he’s gonna try to get you primary. How could you possibly handle the duties of commander in chief? Yeah. And deal with questions, for instance, of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and deciding whether or not you can risk sending aid versus whether or not, Putin would escalate. Right?
  • Speaker 1
    0:40:44

    I mean, this is These are problems that Biden dealt with early in the war. Right? When Putin was threatened people forget, in the first weeks of the war, Putin was threatening to go nuclear. And so there’s a whole debate over, well, geez. You know, Biden doesn’t wanna give him the the wants to give aid, but he doesn’t wanna give Putin the provocation.
  • Speaker 1
    0:41:01

    I mean, People don’t remember this because it was a million years ago, but but this happened, and Biden faced the dude down. Would you trust any of these people who who just won’t say one way or another whether they’re gonna vote for no one try?
  • Speaker 3
    0:41:15

    I would not trust these people to coach my child’s soccer team. Like they’re just unable to make basic moral calculations, like, obviously. So forget war, choices of war. I had one other thing on Trump’s speech last night. I just because since I was negative Nancy at the top, I do it is true that there were some signs of green shoots, not just in the votes, but in Trump’s behavior last night.
  • Speaker 3
    0:41:36

    But, like, remember after Iowa was like, oh, you know, let’s go to the CNN panel, while we have a former Mitch McConnell strategist talking about how sober Donald Trump has been and how he’s really pivoting to the general. That’s great analysis. I’m glad people are paying for that. Over on CNN. But, last night, that was not that.
  • Speaker 3
    0:41:56

    He had Vivic on stage.
  • Speaker 1
    0:41:59

    I saw that.
  • Speaker 3
    0:41:59

    He had a weird guy. I don’t even know who he was. Some weird bald white man shouting about the border and razor wire at the border on the stage. He’s joking about Nikki Haley’s dress, making sexist comments about her dress. I mean, it was it was totally petty vindictive.
  • Speaker 3
    0:42:17

    I mean, again, this is the same spot where, you know, Barack Obama gave the yes, we can speech. Following his defeat to Hillary, just as a as a count as a as a counter option for what you could do following the New Hampshire primary. And Trump was a gross child who was, you know, the messaging was all of his most extreme and unpopular positions, and he was flanked besides Tim got by some of his most unpopular surrogates. So that doesn’t seem like a great choice. Doesn’t seem like somebody that’s pivoting to the general.
  • Speaker 3
    0:42:46

    There obviously is softness weakness in the numbers, which we’ll be talking about for months ahead since this is gonna be the longest general election in American history. I I guess we all knew that that was coming, but, like, I just think that it’s worth saying. Right? That, you know, the night before the New Hampshire primary, he’s doing the weird qanon thing. People in the crowd are chanting where we go when
  • Speaker 1
    0:43:04

    we move on. Can we talk about that, Tim?
  • Speaker 3
    0:43:06

    Yeah. So the night before, you know Can you
  • Speaker 1
    0:43:08

    explain the music to people?
  • Speaker 3
    0:43:10

    Yeah. And trump’s speech he’s been having, like, in the middle of the speech, this operatic music comes on, in the background, kind of like an Italian. It’s like
  • Speaker 1
    0:43:18

    during a movie where there’s like mood music swelling in the back around while the while the character
  • Speaker 3
    0:43:23

    talks about the great patriots and how we’re fighting for the country. And he doesn’t usually during that time talk directly about January but like this subtext is very clear as is obvious by the fact that last or two nights ago now when the mood music comes on, people in the crowd started chanting. Where we go one, we go all, which is the QAnon slogan, and then started chanting free the j sixers. By the way, not just like one person? Many people in the crowd, which just kind of shows the familiarity with, q and a, like, cinematic universe among the people that show up at Trump events, And Trump is, like, acknowledging them, smiling at them in the crowd, pointing at them, kind of pausing, letting the music crescendo while they chant where we go one, we go all.
  • Speaker 3
    0:44:05

    Then said, we’ll do it, in response to the free of the j sixers. I, again, like, this is not the way to win back the Nikki Haley voters. You know, having Vivek on stage is not the way back. So I I do think that that you know, that that kind of speaks to the optimist point, which I think that there’s some legitimacy to, which is that I kind of the Haley voter right now has not been telling pollsters that they’re voting for Joe Biden because they haven’t been coming to terms with Trump. And, like, right now, they’re coming to terms with Trump, and this is what they’re seeing.
  • Speaker 3
    0:44:40

    And so I do think that that’s of note from last night.
  • Speaker 1
    0:44:44

    I mean, the split screen of that and the Joe Biden rally where he’s like, we’re gonna bring back row. Unemployment’s three point nine percent. And then you have, like, trump with the mood music and where we, like, we’re gonna free the j six hostage. Like, it seems to me to be a choice so stark that I can’t understand how anybody could even be wishy while. Like, you just you want one of those things or you want the other.
  • Speaker 2
    0:45:07

    That’s true. Although Joe Biden pointed out Terry McCauliff had said the real governor of Virginia, and I thought that was a huge mistake. Other than I I cannot believe that Joe Biden or his team thought it was, appropriate to make a joke like that. Like, either we seriously think it’s really bad when people claim to hold offices they don’t have or win elections they didn’t win or we think it’s funny.
  • Speaker 1
    0:45:30

    Well, I think it can be funny when Terry McCalliff doesn’t claim to be the real governor. Right? It that’s look, in general, I agree with you. If if I had it to do over, I
  • Speaker 2
    0:45:40

    agree with it
  • Speaker 1
    0:45:41

    and not
  • Speaker 2
    0:45:41

    do it. Don’t do it.
  • Speaker 1
    0:45:42

    But on the other hand, you can argue that It it is ironically funny. So long as the person you’re joking about it with does not have any claims to being the actual real governor, because then what you’re doing is just goofy on Carrie Lake.
  • Speaker 2
    0:45:55

    Don’t do it.
  • Speaker 1
    0:45:58

    Let’s talk about Joe Biden and Dean Phillips. Dean Phillips got his ticket to ride.
  • Speaker 3
    0:46:03

    He did.
  • Speaker 1
    0:46:03

    He finished with nineteen point six percent of the vote. Despite being the only name on the ballot,
  • Speaker 2
    0:46:10

    was gonna say Joe Biden wasn’t on the ballot.
  • Speaker 3
    0:46:12

    Excuse me, Mary Ann Williamson was on the ballot. She Oh,
  • Speaker 1
    0:46:14

    there you go.
  • Speaker 3
    0:46:15

    She got five percent or maybe four point four.
  • Speaker 1
    0:46:18

    So, really, she was his Jill stein. She, I mean, if Mary Ann Williams and had not been on that ballot, he could have been at twenty five percent of the vote. That’s what you’re telling me, Tim.
  • Speaker 3
    0:46:29

    Yeah. For sure. He could’ve got that a full quarter of the vote. What was Dean Dean’s analysis of his of his performance? Have you seen this?
  • Speaker 1
    0:46:37

    Please.
  • Speaker 3
    0:46:38

    He he put out a he put out an x. I’ve built business and brands. It’s it’s typo. I’ve built business and brands and studied the best successes in marketing history. Never known one that generated twenty percent market share in just ten weeks.
  • Speaker 3
    0:46:54

    As we did last evening in New Hampshire, we’re just getting started, exclamation point, American flag emoji.
  • Speaker 2
    0:47:02

    Love that free market framing. It’s great stuff. I don’t know what Dean Phillips is thinking. Does he still have a campaign like Steve Schmidt left?
  • Speaker 3
    0:47:10

    He’s lost his mind. I think that he’s been broken. He’s a broken person. Yeah. I think that he had some people in his ear telling him that this was gonna happen for him, and he can’t believe that it’s not.
  • Speaker 3
    0:47:19

    And it’s just crazy. I mean, he lost by forty five percent to to write, to write in other.
  • Speaker 2
    0:47:30

    That’s not even Joe Biden. It’s just
  • Speaker 3
    0:47:32

    other. Yeah.
  • Speaker 1
    0:47:35

    He’s gonna go to South Sarah Longwell, and I, for one, am eager for him to do a lot of public events in South Sarah Longwell, because I am excited to see what the democratic voter reaction to him in South Carolina is going to be. I am I am excited to hear the amount Here, the interactions he has with real salt to the Earth voters in South Carolina.
  • Speaker 2
    0:47:55

    Did you see the thing where he had an event New Hampshire and just nobody came. It was like him sitting on the back of a truck, and it was a zero people and just reporters.
  • Speaker 3
    0:48:04

    My nightmare from a campaign I had one I have a bone to pick, a real bone to pick with Dean Phillips. Well, who’s for starters randomly is like running a way more Agro campaign against Joe Biden than anybody did against Donald Trump for Chris Christie.
  • Speaker 1
    0:48:15

    Thank you for noticing. Which makes no sense.
  • Speaker 3
    0:48:17

    I I I do think I literally think that had Dean Phillips. I don’t think you would have won, but I think he’d gotten in the race And had he done what Newt Gingrich did in twenty twelve, which was just crush Obama every day and be like, wouldn’t you love to see me on a stage with Obama? I don’t think Dean fell cable. That’s what had somebody gotten in and crushed Trump every day and trolled him and went on MSNBC and just, like, made fun of his makeup and made fun of his hands and, like, I think that Joe Biden might have had a problem on his hands, because I think that some people in the Democratic party might have started to look at this and be like, maybe we need somebody that can satisfy that itch that we need of of of punching this guy in the face a little harder. He didn’t do that.
  • Speaker 3
    0:48:56

    He decided to get in and like complain about the DNC and sound like a like glenn greenwald. I That was not it’s not a path to winning the current democratic primary, but I have one other specific complaint about Dean. I don’t know if you did you see this? He had an event that nobody came to. And then across the street was a Trump event, where there are a lot of people.
  • Speaker 3
    0:49:11

    And so he like took the press with them and went over to the line of Trump people and like hung out and talked to them and asked them what they you know, what their opinion was on things. And then he did a little gaggle after. And he said, you know, I just spent forty minutes in line with these trump voters and they have just real concerns and and I don’t know. The media and the Democrats and the elites all act like they’re in saying p crazy people and, like, I didn’t see any crazy people. I saw people that had legitimate concerns that Yeah.
  • Speaker 1
    0:49:41

    That women being president because they might be on their periods.
  • Speaker 3
    0:49:43

    I was like, no. I was like, you’re the condescending one. You gelato fuck. Like, I don’t nobody nobody thinks that these people have, like, horns coming out of their heads, and then if you just greet them in line and say, hello, Hey, nice to meet you. I’m Dean Phillips.
  • Speaker 3
    0:49:56

    They’re gonna start dropping in bombs or something. I got Like, they’re still humans. They’re still human beings. Like, yeah. Some as we’ve learned, a lot of Donald Trump voters have some pretty gross views about certain things.
  • Speaker 3
    0:50:09

    Like, and and if you spend a lot of time with them and explore them, there are some things that, like, you will they will hear that will make you uncomfortable as Sarah Longwell more than anybody. The fact that they went down on Trump to be president, by itself, is a pretty gross view. But, like, they’re still humans. And so I just hate this notion that it’s like, oh, well, just the the the the in the bubble Joe Biden doesn’t under stand that these people are real humans. Like, I Joe Biden gets it.
  • Speaker 3
    0:50:36

    Joe Biden treats them like humans? Like, who are you talking about? It’s like just such a straw man. It’s like, Oh, I, you know, maybe Joy Reid said something about them. They don’t like it’s like, Joy, you’re not running against the craziest most condescending liberal on Twitter.
  • Speaker 3
    0:50:50

    Right? You’re running against Joe Biden. So that just got under my skin.
  • Speaker 1
    0:50:54

    Well, I’m looking forward to Dean Phillips starting to write for Barry Weiss once he once he gets
  • Speaker 2
    0:51:00

    that is his trajectory here. That is where he started backing up. He needs
  • Speaker 1
    0:51:03

    two steps away from becoming, like, vax curious.
  • Speaker 3
    0:51:06

    Yeah. Well, Andrew Yang was on with Jesse Waters this week. And we told Jesse that it was, the the Jesse Waters World was his favorite show on Fox besides gut felt. So that’s that’s a trajectory that Dean Phillips seems to be headed on.
  • Speaker 1
    0:51:20

    Why wouldn’t he? Why though? This is my question. Right? We see the whole world is going crazy, and why is it that all of the crazy?
  • Speaker 1
    0:51:30

    I mean, it’s not all the crazy. Like, some of the crazy spins out into like pro Hamas lefties. But it seems like, like, if there’s crazy in the world that the gravitational pull pulls them over towards manga. Why is that?
  • Speaker 2
    0:51:45

    Well, you just sort of dismissed, like, I I think the Hamas crazies are like a real thing. And a Yeah.
  • Speaker 1
    0:51:50

    No. I do too. But, like, Andrew Yang isn’t getting in that direction. Is what I’m what I’m trying to say?
  • Speaker 2
    0:51:56

    I think that there is a big chunk on the right that allows people to kind of do the epoxy on both their houses like, you can find sort of a warm reception, and that’s why Barry Weiss can say, look, I’m never gonna vote for Donald Trump, but, like, let me just talk excessive, like, about the excesses of the left, and I will find an audience on the right because that’s where people land who feel like they’re not for Trump, but they are against the left. And I think that there is not just a a a pretty good market for that overall. I think there’s a really good news consumption audience for that, like a high info audience that likes that conversation But there’s a world there for you.
  • Speaker 3
    0:52:41

    This is so smart.
  • Speaker 2
    0:52:42

    That he doesn’t have an Democratic party.
  • Speaker 3
    0:52:45

    Yeah. This is so smart. Right? Just circling back on two points from this thing. Trump won a hundred eight out of a hundred ten County.
  • Speaker 3
    0:52:50

    So far. Some of those counties have college educated voters in them, but they don’t really like him. Like, he still has some of those voters. They have to con consume news somewhere. They’re not consuming the war room.
  • Speaker 3
    0:53:00

    They can’t consume where we go one, where we go all shit. Right? And so they need to look for something, and this is This is a news place for it. I think that is one example. I think Sarah’s right about it, and I think Sarah’s also right.
  • Speaker 3
    0:53:10

    It’s the cafeteria again. They don’t know Tim Scott. Right. Like, Dean Phillips has no reason to be disappointed with and angry at Tim Scott in the way we are. Like Dean Phillips knows, like, his entire world.
  • Speaker 3
    0:53:23

    Is surrounded by elite Liberals, and some of them annoy him. And, like, that interpersonal annoyance in the lunchroom means, like, I wanna sit at a new table. Because some of these people annoy me. That’s why he was like on a safari in the Magga line. Right?
  • Speaker 3
    0:53:38

    Like he doesn’t even hear or consume anything to get mad about in that world because he that he doesn’t know. So I think I think that’s the psychology behind him.
  • Speaker 2
    0:53:46

    And then he’s shocked. Shoted. To find out that they’re just people. I mean, I make this point a lot with the focus group stuff is that, like, most people are, like, pretty normal to talk about how they volunteer for their kids school and, you know, take care of their sick parents and, you know, and, like, a lot of them, it’s tribal. I was doing NPR.
  • Speaker 2
    0:54:06

    And I was on with the great Heather Cox Richardson, but she was kinda doing what I hear a lot of folks do were like, there’s a white NAS less takeover of the Republican Party, and I’m always it’s always like a tough one because it’s not untrue that there’s a real white nationalism strain within the Republican Party. But it is not the dominant strain. Right? Like, the dominant strain is still made up of normal, but angry. People.
  • Speaker 2
    0:54:32

    And of course, what they talk about, they wanna talk about as the economy and health care. And, you know, those are the things that, like, matter to them if you talk about issues or you say, like, what matters to you.
  • Speaker 3
    0:54:42

    And then you’re asking about the border and all of a sudden it’s like, whoa, you want you want barbed wire and sharks. I cleared that come from.
  • Speaker 2
    0:54:50

    Some some, but not not everybody, you know, like there’s but what they want is for someone to take the border seriously. I think there’s plenty of non insane legitimate concerns that people can have. I think where I have always deviated is on the solution being Donald Trump. Because if you’re willing to say that to get the things I want, I’m willing to engage in all kinds of illiberal behavior, then you are not a conservative. You’re not you don’t believe in the constitution, and you don’t believe in American liberal democracy.
  • Speaker 3
    0:55:20

    I I agree with that. I just kind of got that that these things exist within the same people. Humans are complicated. Like, a human that has legitimate concerns about the economy or the border or whatever, most of them that are voting for Donald Trump also think that Joe as an illegitimate president. Like, they’ve they’ve also, like, on certain topics their brains have been poisoned.
  • Speaker 3
    0:55:38

    Yeah. By by by the Mag and News media, And so it’s like you go up and have a question with them and ask them like, oh, how’s your kid’s school? You know, and or, oh, like, you know, how was your last trip to the grocery store? Like, the responses are normal. But then if you go to them and like, what do you think about the voting machines, then all of a sudden you’re like, whoa, where are you getting your news from?
  • Speaker 1
    0:55:57

    Yeah, sir. I have a I have a serious question about this.
  • Speaker 2
    0:56:00

    Do you take all your questions seriously JBL?
  • Speaker 1
    0:56:02

    It is still true. That these very fine people are thinking about
  • Speaker 3
    0:56:10

    the
  • Speaker 1
    0:56:12

    the normal concerns about things like immigration and the economy, or do you think that they have basically offloaded all of the question about what they’re going to be concerned about to what Donald Trump is concerned about. I mean, and this is really like the the question of the the cult of personality is what I’m getting at because my sense is that the dominant strain of the Republican Party now is really about personal fealty to Donald Trump. And much less about policy concerns. And that while that may not have been true four years ago, certainly wasn’t true, you know, like seven years ago, that was like thirty five percent of the party. Four years ago, it was like forty five percent of the party.
  • Speaker 1
    0:56:58

    And now it’s like close to fifty five or sixty percent of the party that is just that What they want is Donald Trump, and they then are they’ll just take any from what Donald Trump says. Am I am I wrong about that?
  • Speaker 2
    0:57:11

    One of the reasons that it will be an a bummer if we don’t have a more protracted primary is that, like, if Nikki Haley ran through all the States, you would get a good calculation of what proportion of the party wanted a normal ish Republican versus who like truly affirmatively wants Donald Trump. I just think it’s more complicated than the way you just laid it out. And so I think that there is a big chunk of the party that is all Trump personality cult driven. Big chunk. And maybe that is your sort of forty percent.
  • Speaker 2
    0:57:41

    You’re always trumpers. The people that Ron DeSantis was trying to wrestle. But then you got three of your maybe trumpers, which is another big chunk who, you know, they kinda like the direction Trump is taking the party. They don’t like Democrats at all. They want somebody who’s gonna be strong and tough and like, the end of the day, I’ve watched that group kind of drift back to Trump, but they were open to somebody else.
  • Speaker 2
    0:58:06

    This didn’t find somebody else they liked. And then there’s sort of the active move on from Trump, folks. And even a lot of those people have drifted back to Trump because they wanted to move on, but they didn’t they didn’t find anybody they like to move on to. Were the DeSantis curious people, where they liked sort of the the cultural stuff that Ron DeSantis was bringing to the party, but they wanted And they wanted Trump’s policies, but they wanted a person who was serious about policies and not a clown. Anyway, I don’t know.
  • Speaker 2
    0:58:32

    That’s sort of how I think about it and break it up, but I also something Tim said there is To the extent that people are complicated and you can’t just easily bracket and bucket them, what Donald Trump doesn’t do is, like, offend them to the point where they won’t vote for them. Like, I listen to voters all the time in the groups, and you just a perfectly normal woman. Sweet. She’s taking care of her. You know, has has a couple of kids.
  • Speaker 2
    0:58:55

    That’s the most important thing to her. Doesn’t pay that much attention to politics, doesn’t watch the news that much. And this is this is actually one of the big keys. They’re not so engaged. Right?
  • Speaker 2
    0:59:04

    They don’t love Donald Trump orders. They’re not that engaged in politics, but everyone around them is voting for Trump and says the Democrats are the worst things that ever happened. And they don’t really like the prices at the grocery store, then they don’t like that their kids are being taught like what bi non binary means or whatever. So they’re like, yeah, vote for Trump. I think that’s different than the people who are, like, desperate to turn out for him.
  • Speaker 1
    0:59:25

    Yeah. You know, I would agree that there’s a difference. I just I’m I’m just trying to visualize the pie chart in my head. And I I feel as though that segment of the pie that was, like, just pure Trump cultism, which was about thirty five percent or thirty percent in twenty sixteen. It feels to me like it’s a lot bigger than forty percent now.
  • Speaker 1
    0:59:44

    We had a very good field of candidates. Right? We had all of the things represented. Right? All of the choices for different flavors of conservatism.
  • Speaker 1
    0:59:54

    We had serious people of stature, people who are good politicians, and the revealed preference is that they just wanted Trump.
  • Speaker 2
    1:00:01

    Did you think that we had good candidates? I’m not sure I agree with that. I thought you can’t beat something with nothing and we got nothing.
  • Speaker 1
    1:00:08

    I think that other than DeSantis, I mean, Mike Pence is a former vice president. Former vice presidents are very formidable. They almost always win the nomination. Nikki Haley is a good candidate. Tim Scott on paper is a good candidate.
  • Speaker 1
    1:00:21

    Chris Christie, good candidate. You’re an evangelical candidate? Yeah.
  • Speaker 3
    1:00:25

    Sure. I but, like, There were plenty of options. I don’t know. Were any of those candidates worse? I hear what you’re saying, Sarah Longwell, like, comparing them against, fake candidates, but, like, were any of those candidates worse than Mitt Romney who won the nomination in twenty twelve pretty handily?
  • Speaker 3
    1:00:41

    I don’t think so. Mitt has a lot of strengths and weaknesses, but Mitt was not like a great performer, really. Or a perfect ideological fit for the party. You know, he was a pretty formidable debater. He got pretty good at that by twenty twelve, much better than he was in o eight.
  • Speaker 3
    1:00:58

    But I don’t even look at Ron DeSantis. I noticed that his campaign was horrible, and he was opponent. There was a lot of different contact just as far as candidate skills are concerned, it’s not like Ron DeSantis was miles worse than Mitt. Mike Pence was about the same as Mitt. Tim Scott was a little worse.
  • Speaker 3
    1:01:14

    Nikki Haley a little better. Chris Christie way better.
  • Speaker 2
    1:01:16

    And you know what? This is a fair point in that I think that the rhythms and the x expectations and politics have changed dramatically. I don’t know that I think that it’s that everybody’s in the cult, sort of the way JBL is saying, I do think people have decided they want charismatic personalities and not nearly as much policy talk. They wanna fight Right? They wanna fight.
  • Speaker 2
    1:01:40

    All the time.
  • Speaker 1
    1:01:41

    Oh, no. Right? Democrats have a policy guy.
  • Speaker 2
    1:01:44

    I don’t know, man. They ask for a fighter all the time too in the focus group. The Democrats do.
  • Speaker 3
    1:01:49

    Yeah. Sure. And there’s some differences within the parties. But, again, Joe Biden won a nomination. Not particularly strong candidate.
  • Speaker 3
    1:01:54

    Hillary Clinton won a nomination, not a particularly strong candidate. Like, It’s only recently that, like, we’ve come to this thing that, like, oh, you have to be an amazing performer. To be the nominee, ain’t George Bulwark? Wasn’t that good? John Carey wasn’t that good?
  • Speaker 2
    1:02:06

    This is my point is that he changed the expectation. So what I’m saying is, like, it’s less than I just think there are cold. It’s that they’ve come to crave the circus, the fun, the accessibility. At this, I always try to mention this because I think I hear a lot. Like, Trump made politics accessible and interesting to people who otherwise didn’t feel like politics was accessible to them because they didn’t like boring policy speeches.
  • Speaker 2
    1:02:30

    And they like when Trump beats up on his opponents and makes fun of, like, trans athletes.
  • Speaker 3
    1:02:37

    Great.
  • Speaker 2
    1:02:37

    That’s a good time.
  • Speaker 1
    1:02:38

    Good show, incredibly long show. We’ll only do this long mega shows following meaningless primaries. So, you know, don’t don’t worry. You’ve got it. Most one of them left head over to the Bulwark and sign up for all the free stuff we give you, go listen to our podcast, check out the YouTube stuff.
  • Speaker 1
    1:02:55

    We’ll see you next week.
  • Speaker 2
    1:02:56

    Bye.
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