James Carville: Better Constipated than Evil

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two. Welcome to the Bulwark Podcast. It’s Thursday, September first. I’m Jonathan Last. Sitting in for Charlie Sykes.

He’ll be back next week. I’m joined today by James Carville, you know who he is. He’s the guy who saved the Democratic party in the early nineteen nineties. He loves watches, LSU football, and he co hosts the politics podcast war room without hunt. We’re gonna talk about the watch stuff later.

James. Welcome back to the show. How are you, buddy?

Well, I’m good. I’m I’m good. Every time I reach something, you’re right, I’m I’m I’m grateful, you know, No. The side. That’s very tiny.

You haven’t. No. It’s amazing that the sort of different culture that the the Bull Walk types But in they look at what what I’ve been dealing with my whole professional life and I go, wow. I’m still gonna talk to me. It’s a it’s a really constipated political party, but it’s better to be constipated than to be evil or so, given a choice that’s

you know, that’ll be the tagline for the Democrats that are constipated than evil. Let’s start today out in the wilds of Alaska where Sarah Palin has lost her special election. She was in a bid to fill the remainder of the late congressman, Don Young’s term. She was in a three way runoff with the Democrat, Mary Paltola, who’s an Indigenous Alaskan, and a Republican, Mist has been named Nick Biegich. We have a rematch of this coming in November, like, ten weeks away.

But what was entering this is, a, Alaska now has a Democratic congresswoman and b, we just road tested the new ranked choice system. I just wanna set the table for people as they understand how this worked. Because it’s a little bit crazy. What we had was we had in the first round, the Democrat, Peltola, finished with forty percent of the votes she was about sixteen thousand votes ahead of Palen, who was in second, as they went through the subsequent rounds of the ranked choice voting, Baggage was eliminated because he was in third. Half of his voters had Palen as their number two choice twenty one percent didn’t list a second choice and twenty nine percent ranked Peltola overpayment.

And that’s that’s why She is now the Democratic congressman. So James, let’s start at the macro and zoom in. I would argue that unlike some of these other special elections we’ve seen in the last few weeks, we shouldn’t put too much stock on this result because Alaska is a weird state ranked choice as a weird system and Palen is a weird candidate. Am I wrong? Is this is this actually part of the the broader narrative and special elections we’ve been seeing?

Or is this just an outlier?

I think, you know, it’s one of his typical cop out answer, but it happens, I think it’s the correct answer. It’s some of both. Right? And in in what happened and I’ll I’ll be a little bit bragging on myself here. I kept screaming that Kansas was the big opportunity.

And just actually went out there before the vote. And I I do think that the Kansas ballot initiative gave democrats excited them, gave them hope, and I think it was demoralizing to some republicans. Now how much of that would have happened in Alaska. I don’t know, because as you point out, it’s it’s to unique set of circumstances. But Al Gross is a friend of mine.

Tried to help him to senate raise that he lost. He dropped out because he knew he was gonna siphon votes off, and that that’s the kind of sacrifice and pragmatism. That we have to have all across the parties. We’re gonna save democracy as we know it. We need that kind of stuff.

And she was a unique because she was so polarized and she’s got twenty nine percent the second choice of Vegas’s Republican voters, which is you’re not gonna replicate that against an ordinary Republican. But the other side of the coin is that not a lot of ordinary Republicans running in this side.

Yeah. Sarah Longwell, my colleague has a her focus group up guest. She she did a whole huge focus group up in Alaska. And what you heard Republican voters saying over and over again was, they they really didn’t like Palen. Even the ones who said they were gonna vote for

her, they

said they didn’t like her because she was a quitter. And again, it’s just she’s a unique unique person. But the bigger question is here, I mean, what good is it to have this seat for ten weeks? You know, can potola hold on in November? I don’t even understand how this campaign works if you’re her.

She’s gotta show up in DC, staff and office, do work as a legislator. And also run a campaign five thousand miles away?

Yeah. It’s it’s difficult. And, you know, it’s difficult to hold the feet, but you know, you take what you can get for for ten weeks. And who knows? You know, that we’ll talk about later on and show them, but but this election is starting to form whether it continues or not.

I don’t know. I needed as anyone else. But trust me, the the democrats it excited them. The other thing that Helen has a problem when you live in a place like Louisiana and Alaska, you particularly understand that. We’re very sensitive about our politicians embarrassing us.

And I think a lot of people in Alaska, a lot of Republicans in Alaska just didn’t like the idea that she’d become a laughingstock. Because the attitude that most people in Alaska have is due most people long as it’s on the coast, but not not what we think that was a coastal state, is that we’re kind of looking down upon. And that’s a that’s a real feeling. It it it it’s not just made up. And I think that probably hurt as much as anything.

Howard Bauchner: This

is a funny thing. And it shows the difference between ordinary political support and cult of personality. Palen’s voters got embarrassed by her. And you didn’t hear anybody anywhere, so far as I can tell, defending her decision to to resign her seat. Right?

Nobody nobody came out and said, actually, this is brilliant and, you know, was I’m glad she did it. But where’s if we’ve been talking about Donald Trump you would have absolutely had that. Right? Because, you know, people just wanna rally around no matter what he does, people rally around him and say that, you know, of course, he he took those documents. That’s that’s what a guy.

I want a president who takes classified documents, you know. And and she does not have that that cult of personality. And it is that is a difference in kind, not not just like a difference in magnitude.

Well, then that speech in Minneapolis was per high watermark by far. And then and after that, it just went down and descended. The the Bill Mark piece on Cerro Pelon has got to be one of the funniest things I’ve ever seen in my life. You

know? Yeah. So do you think

I I mean, I in a weird way, on the one hand, there is a The Wicked Witch’s Dead kind of vibe to this. But on the other, again, this is a very, very narrow victory. And we’ve got it replicated again in November. And it seems to me that she might still be minimally viable. No?

Yes. I

mean, and and with the the way the system is, and you did a good job of explaining it up. I now understand it. Somewhat better than I did before. Anything can happen, you know? Look, what you got to think of, suppose republicans have a three vote house majority.

Alright. Extrapolate the speaker’s race at that point. Thank you. That’s that’s really in the realm of possibility. As of right now, someone asked me, it could be, you know, plus ten Democratic to plus twenty Republican.

But but three, is that that’s a a reasonable assumption. So and remember, the Democrats vote on speaker of the House. Right. So if you’ve got four Republicans that don’t like Kevin McCarthy, which is highly likely, then you you might you know, we people always fantasize about this. And it’s okay.

But you might have a a non house member, f speaker. Donald Trump, right,

to the city? No. I’ll I’ll

call him right now.

What about this? Liz Cheney? Oh, believe me. I wouldn’t Every

Democrat says, you know, the best we can do. We got us through, you know, we we down three, and you got four, five Republicans that said, you know, I I can’t go along with the direction this is. I

mean, some west wing level fantasy politics — Not a

lot. — but that’s what we do. I I you know, I mean, my other grand prediction, by the way, and I’ll give it to you. You can play that in my funeral. That I think within the next year that Biden will pardon Trump.

And I think what what the conditions of part is Trump has to ask him for it, and he has to admit guilt. And he’s got to ask Biden to ask the Fulton County DAE to suspend. And I think if he did that, I I think it would be yeah. There’d be some wisdom in buying foreign opinion. That I’m just we’re gonna talk about that later.

Quite a while ago.

Because you and I are in the same place on this. And I get killed for it by our readers all the time and and, frankly, by the by my bulwark colleagues. So we’ll get to that. Okay. Do you have before we leave Alaska, do you have any deep thoughts about rank choice voting.

Rate choice voting is one of those things that the people who are into it are really into it. They will talk your ear off for hours about how this will save America. Do you have thoughts either way? I’m very — Yeah. — on it.

Like, it seems confusing and I’m open to trying it and having some experiments, but if

not default position is what the fuck is wrong with the person with the Moses Road’s winning. Right? That’s just the way you felt it was to be. Right? You know, It’s just gonna most runs.

You win the game. Right? Right. But what you saw in Alaska was an interesting thing. It hurts more extreme candidates.

At least it did in this instance. Right? Yes. So I I can’t say that I like it because they they mark that, which they don’t understand. But the result in Alaska kind of show what I think its originators kind of had in mind that you you weren’t gonna get stuck with an extremely, and high person takes it all.

You got a five person field and somebody has a rock solid thirty two percent they went. Right. So it it’s like everything else and like, Jonathan, it it nothing is all good,

all bad. I I still think it’s more bad and good, but I’m open to to shift in. Yeah. We’ll see. We’ll see.

You know? Alright. Moving on. We have the

the Department of Justice versus Donald Trump. Lots of movement yesterday. We have the former president going on another giant truth storm. You said in one of your recent episodes that his legal team is not just bad but awful. And it does I don’t know.

I mean, I am not a lawyer. You went to law school. You are a lawyer. People don’t remember that about you. What

is happening here? Because it sure looks like we’re moving towards an indictment. So he’s hired the form of Florida solicit general who

I looked up. It looks like he he’s caught Alright? Okay. The the previous lawyers, they would file a motion and they wouldn’t have a prayer. And the but, you know, prayers just read the leads for which I asked for.

You know? Right. Jonathan punched me in the eye, you know, I asked for him. Ten thousand dollars for this intentional part and whatever. It it it could be the most rudimentary thing in the world.

But they didn’t even include a prayer in the judge who was appointed by Trump had referred him to the manual of a sudden district of Florida. I I mean, what I was telling you, we had judge Ruben who was like this genius, and he had qualms for everything. So you you could just look up judge Ruben’s qualms and you you you all you had to do is get your secretary to retype the form and put the other name in. That’s not that’s not complicated to orient. They couldn’t even do that.

I’m I’m as I as I said on my show, the one thing I can recognize is a bad lawyer. These are not bad lawyers. These are God awful are you? Whoa.

So where where are we heading here with this? I mean, it sure looks. Like he was in possession of a bunch of classified documents. His position seems to be that Those records belong to him, but the law of this also seems pretty clear that that’s not case, when you’re president, the records you create, belong to the government, not to to you personally. Are are we gonna get the actual indictment, do

you think? So Alright. Let’s think about it. The the consensus on who Merrick Garland is, it is almost unanimous. He’s a very straight laced profity, deliberate, judicious in an even new name.

It’s all the same thing. Right? And he didn’t want to do this, obviously. He sat on the application for a week. But he knows that once he signed that, he’s committed to battle.

That they said Sky knows that. In Den, when they filed a motion with the photo, this is going to trial. Yeah. I think he knows where it’s going. I’m not sure it can even be stopped now.

And the other thing is is the papers clearly don’t belong to him he clearly stole them. I I don’t know if there’s a federal theft statute, but there must be stealing government property. Clearly, what he did. Carl Roeve was on Fox, and he kept he doesn’t own it is not his papers, and he referred out nineteen seventy eight. Presidential documents act.

He can’t he can’t claim ownership. Some if I want you to watch, I just can’t well, I can’t claim ownership. But I I take it. I’m it’s stealing. It’s that simple.

Yeah.

When you’ve lost Carl Roeve, you

know, you’re in trouble. Right. I mean, he but, you know, he sure he knows that. He was part of an administration. It’s not yours.

It’s not yours. It belongs to the government. It it did pretty simple.

So What does the timing look like on this? I mean, I I I am basically of the opinion that Trump is unconventional because you can’t assemble twelve people that any group of twelve people anywhere in America without getting one red hat in it. Yeah. No matter what you do, in terms

of I don’t actually I don’t think so. You don’t think so? You’d be surprised if somebody is on a jury. Right? In that says, this is what you’re going to decide on.

At each and every point, these are the elements of theft. Right? In in the state can show. He had him. He knew it was we tried to get him back.

The false folk false documents claiming that they’d turned them all back. The the archives went there and and did it. He had complete knowledge, and he just kept keeping it. And if he that’s you can show intent. You can show knowledge.

You can show everything. Right? And you tell a jerk that. I mean, you could you’d have to have an awfully red hat. And you would have to stand up to a lot of internal pressure to other jurors.

I’m I’m I’m I have a little more faith in the jury system than

Yeah. I well, it’s not the jury system. I don’t have faith in it. It’s people. I I don’t

I don’t like people. Look at the jury system. You know, I have one. But I just say people when people are there, and you sit in a trial, and everybody’s watching you, in that judge, in that row, sitting up above you. Alright?

And he’s the guy that lets you tells you when you can eat lunch and tells you when you can lean you. He tells you when you can pee. He tells you what you can listen to. You know, he’s generally a she. I should apologize.

So you’d have to be a pretty hard, wide person to stand up to eleven o of people that say, look, Jonathan, this is what the judge said we had to decide it

out. Alright? Count number one. Elements of proof. Boom.

Boom. Boom. I’d more faith than you. So what’s the timeline look on this? Does this all start happening before he declares, do you

think he’s running by the way? Because that’s been my assumption has been that he’s running the whole the whole time. I I thought this from October of twenty twenty that he was gonna run again. Where are you on this?

Well, first of all, they’re not gonna do anything till after the election. That’s pretty clear in terms of charging anybody. Sure. They they could release in documents and Trump lawyers weighed in again and lean with a channel they’ll pop them pretty hard. I don’t know what yes.

They’re going to indict you. There’s no other way. You you touch a king, you kill a king. And does he run a knot? It it’s where he thinks he can he can grasp the most money by being a candidate or or not.

Everything that he decides is how big of a girth it can be. I think if he runs, I don’t think he’ll win the nomination. Really? I really don’t. Because tell me more.

I’ll tell you why. Now again, look, be careful what you wish for. Alright? But that because the the best thing ever written on Trumpism was by the Trumpist candidate for the Pennsylvania said it after she was a black woman. Yeah.

I can’t recall her name, but she said that MAGA existed before Trump. We were just waiting for somebody to come along and MAGA will exist after Trump. And Trump doesn’t he he can’t control us in evidence was pretty persuasive. When he told the people in North Alabama, they should get vaccinated. They blew him off the stage.

You never said it again. Right. But if you if you don’t follow we think that Trump created MAGA, I think this woman is right. I think MAGA was always out there. Always out there and it’s gonna stay out there.

So it it if mega decides that Trump is not the best vehicle to carry there, whatever, I guess, philosophy of being generous and call

it

that. I I I think they’ll turn on him. And if and, you know, he’s started to hear a lot about it. I like everything he’s done. You know, the government is not gonna let him alone.

And so what we gotta do is put another a new guy and they’ll have more energy that will be fighting the deep state and can eradicate the deep state. I don’t know if that logic will will start to come in. You know, he got you know, the desire to win kicks in to anybody. And if the constant barrage of poles showing him losing that that that’s gonna hurt him in a way. Megawatts is gonna wanna win and it they decide that Trump is not the best vehicle.

They’ll they’ll take another way. But but he is not mega. He they allow him to exist as long as he hughes their party by him. That’s

interesting.

That’s

very interesting. I, you know, you mentioned about how he’s he’s constantly grifting and looking to make more money. The other thing he’s always looking for is leverage, and I think being a declared candidate gives him more leverage just over the justice system, right, in terms of looking to make deals or, you know, or try to wriggle out of something. If he’s a declared candidate, he just has more leverage over that because that makes their prosecution more more tenuous and So I I I I didn’t I think he he has to declare one way or another just from his own lights on this.

Yeah. I mean, if if they look, he’s gonna do what he thinks is best for him. You know, the shit rock to the pumpkin party in a bag of movement or anything else. Absolutely. But I don’t I’m not saying he’s

not gonna run. I said there I think there’s a central chance that I remember the Republican beat him. If he’s prosecuted, because this is a weird thing. Right? The

all the

basically, with

the exception of the Doug Mastrianos and the Carrie Lakes of the world, everybody from Rhonda Santos on down is desperate for Trump to be sent to jail.

But at

the same time, they are going to not only not help the effort to send Trump to jail, they’re going to a packet and defend him from it every step of the way. And so how does what are the politics of this wind up being? Because I I just don’t you’re gonna get a clear clear sense of public opinion because you’re gonna have the entire Republican party defending Trump and claiming it’s a witch hunt. The whole way, not because they believe it, not because they want Trump to still be the leader of the party, but because they feel like they have to do that to maintain their place within MAGA. Correct.

And the one thing, everybody did a focus group. Trump’s presidency after his presidency. If you have a focus group of Republicans, you ask them, what do you want out of your congressional candidates. The number one answer by far, Barrack, none is defend Trump. And by the way, Republicans at him failed to defend Trump or tax drop.

We’re not doing very well. Yeah. Again, MAGA is in control. Date control. They control the the the people in the congress.

Like, I mean, look at after January six and you had, you know, McCarthy and Mitch McConnell thing. You know what they did? They stood down and stood down quickly because they got the message. That’s not what we want. And when you understand that MAGA runs the show, way more than Trump does.

Absolutely. So

this you said this on one of your shows. I I I forget whether it was last week or three weeks ago or whatever. You said, look, it’s these effing people. Right? It’s the voters who are the ones who demand this stuff.

It’s not it’s not the Kevin McCarthy’s of the world. It’s not the Jim Jorgens. That we have this stuff because it’s democracy in action. This is what Republican voters want. And that’s the truest thing ever.

And something I get into fights with with, you know, Tim Miller about all the time and and Sarah Longwell, my buddies. Right. Because I think, well, it’s a leadership prop. And I say, no. No.

This is this is popular. This is literally what populism is. Right.

So Al Hunt and I, and he, you know, his dad was a Republican pediatrician on the mainline. I and, you know, he’s always in the heart for, like, a good Republican. Right? I see you in the body. And he said, if McConnell would exercise his leadership on the second impeachment.

He could have gotten twelve Republican votes. And I said, he couldn’t do that out because if he would have, he would not be the leader anymore. It’d have voted his ass out. He was doing the bidding of his caucus. And his caucus knew that if if any of them turned on him, they were done.

They were done. They were gonna get primary, and they were going to lose. And again, Mega runs the show here. Trump that night, McConnell, on night, McCarthy, none of them.

So, I mean, let let’s let’s walk this down the road a little bit. Let’s say that It’s late November or early December, and we get an indictment. What does that look like politically? I mean, as it is right now, the polling I’ve seen on this suggests that people do think it’s really bad to steal documents. Yeah.

But they haven’t been saturated yet. They haven’t had the entire Republican Party trading that it’s a witch hunt. People thought it was bad. The the people thought the Ukraine stuff was bad. I don’t know if you remember this.

But, you know, the early days of it was awful. I I I don’t know.

It was sixty forty. Right? It was the polling on Ukraine and the blackmailing of Zelensky was sixty four day against Trump in the early weeks. And and then all the Republicans got back onside and went round up

with like a fifty two forty eight. Because forty percent of the country is seventy percent of the Republican Party.

Right? Right. It it they they can’t they can’t go against their own party. I mean, they can, but See, there’s Chinese. But, you know, ethics couldn’t even run.

I I mean, they they just can’t cling to what you remember the Republican it was in two thousand twelve. Techno only exists. It’s not there. It’s it’s a fantasy. It’s it’s story.

Alright? It’s tracking the beanstalk. And and it it’s so hard for people to come to grips and this is where it is. But this this is where it is. And the point I was making is when you have really stupid people that vote in your primaries, really stupid voters produce really stupid candidates.

Right? See Pennsylvania, Arizona, Illinois, etcetera, etcetera. And until the actuarial tables kick in, they’re gonna keep nominating people like this. And it’s it’s it’s it’s a shame, but it’s it’s really true. And and everybody wants to have the great person theory of his and everybody wants to blame McConnell or Trump or whatever.

You you blame him you gotta blame the voters. That’s where the blame was. So

does a prosecution of Trump hurt Biden and democrats?

No. No. No. No. No.

It it you say it’s a prosecution. Alright? Well, first of all, in order to have a prosecution, you got all kind of lead up. Then you actually got an indictment. And people actually see, and of course, you’re gonna have prosecutors that are gonna have charts.

Right? He’s, well, some people don’t resist anything to a point. But at a point when the actual event happens, it shakes up public opinion. Let’s talk about the Dobbs case. Wouldn’t it head to lead draft opinion?

As some people were who run this is terrible by that web, but it didn’t say once the actual opinion hit, It literally changed the political terrain in the United States. And so it it it depends. If it’s a a a indictment that can’t come out to a librarian’s dispute? Well, that’s gonna be really bad. But what that didn’t look like a librarian’s dispute in that photograph.

Think something something quite and if that’s little piece of evidence was so impressive. They got a hundred things just like that. Literally a hundred of them. Literally a hundred of them. So the indictment is just not gonna happen in the vacuum.

There’s gonna be a leak up to it. They and, you know, there’s gonna be leaks and and there’s gonna be leaks. And then you’re gonna have the actual indictment. Then they’re gonna have a shot. And they go stand in front of the shot and said theft, elements.

Espionage act, elements. Presidential records, act, elements and they’re going to have evidence that they’re going to show. And look, thirty percent of the public get mad and everything, but it it’s going to shake people. I promise you. You know, God bless him.

Joe Biden has not said word one

about any of this. And how to me, it was just it’s been so refreshing to have a president where he’s not out there tweeting about every damn thing that happens, you know, in the news. And we will have a weird thing here where you’ll have Democrats basically not talking about it because it’s an ongoing criminal matter. And have republicans who wanna campaign on this.

Alright. I wanna

talk a little bit about Peter Teal. He’s in a little bit of a tiff with Mitch McConnell over for Blake Masters. Teals spent the money to put Blake Masters in JD Vance over in Arizona and Ohio. And then said, basically, I’m not I’m done spending money. And McConnell, last Friday, his super pack pulled eight million dollars worth of ads from masters who is in a little bit of trouble right now.

And supposedly McConnell and Taylor talking to each other and McConnell is saying, hey, more money is needed. We should be sharing the cost and TL isn’t interested. In all this funny, of course, because both Vance and Masters have said that they don’t want McConnell to be the senate leader anymore anyway. So, yeah, McConnell tried

to spend

money to drag over the finish line two guys who wanna replace him. What’s happening with this?

Yeah. Let let me start with disclosure. I consultant to talent care and a shareholder. I haven’t met Peter Teal, but he’s one of the founders of the company. But that did everything to do, because I don’t even know him, but give you a full upfront disclosure about it.

Sure thing. And and McConnell, I think, is actually pulling against these people. And McConnell doesn’t do anything that’s not his entries. And if you look at the twenty twenty four map, it’s pretty the twenty twenty two map is not a good map for Republicans. The twenty twenty four map is actually much better.

And Maybe McConnell thinks if these people go down, the party will wise up and start nominating electable people. Now I’m I’m oh, no. McCollum’s too cynical for that. He wants part right now, maybe so. But when you have the lead of a party, complaining about candidate quality.

You know, that’s like a football coach. I don’t think we’re very good this year. Right. That’s not a good sign. You know?

Yeah.

But I I I don’t know. And and, of course, the he put doctor Oz was to send you know, we have I talked to senator McConnell. He’s putting twenty eight million dollars in Pennsylvania. Well, the federal people ought to just run that as a goddamn act. Because I’ve never been more than more than Pelosi assume a a a Biden or or anybody in McConnell’s by far in a way to move from to the person in American politics.

And the the mega people don’t like him at all. Yeah. They hate

him as much as they hate McCarthy.

Right. And if you wanna suppress that turnout, talk about how Mitch McConnell’s supporting doctor Oz, a JD Vance, who who’s like all world bad candidate. So

what I mean, take through the the midterms with me. Last week, you were you were being a little bit cautious.

You said,

look, a lot of these special election districts have a bunch of colleges in them. Right. Colleges are in the liberal. They have the not only students, but administrators, professors, and all that stuff. Could you give me a best case and a worst case scenario for democrats ten weeks out again.

They had two historical portions I think, got

a clashing right now going into Labor Day. One is, off the elections are almost always tied to direction of country and provincial approval. By that measure, that’s forty house minus forty. Right? The other thing that has been historically true is once a a race begins to form, it generally continues to form that way.

So if you believe in Cleo to guide a history, you said a Republican pick up. A lot of seats. If you believe in once something starts to move, it seldom moves backwards then you believe that the democrats have a pretty good chance. And but you remember this thing since dogs have been all upside for Democrats. So we we don’t know.

Will history come in and negate that? With overcome history. You could look at it either way. I do think that we are in much better the Democrats in much better political shape than we’re at the start of the summer. And it it is common to say and smart to say, I think the Democrats will win the senate and and lose the house.

That that’s certainly a a very defensible position to take. However, that generally doesn’t happen. If you pick a horse in a seat, you get you you’re not gonna lose the house. If we lose the Democrats lose a senate seat, they’re not gonna they’re not gonna win the House. But they usually happen in tandem.

So there’s a lot of historical trends that are conflicting with each other right now. And I think anybody that that says they know how it’s gonna end they’ll ask more than I am. I don’t I don’t think they do know, but I I am pretty comfortable in saying I I never thought I’d feel like this and September the first, but here we are. I mean, part of

the problem is that there are a bunch of races which are gonna be super close. Right? I mean, Hershel Walker is gonna run, I assume, behind Brian Kemp, you know, will there be enough Kemp to and WarNock voters to keep WarNock in his seat? I don’t know. Like, it’s very possible.

Right? Hersha Walker is an all time terrible candidate. But also, you you are depending on people who split tickets, the Blake Masters thing. He’s reasonably closed. I mean, he’ll run behind Kerry Lake.

In Arizona, but but maybe not. J. D. Vance is you know, J. D.

Vance would lose to Tim Ryan in any state except for, like, Ohio and Wyoming, basically. Right? He’s he’s just an awful candidate. Brian’s a great candidate. But you look at me.

There’s just a lot. These are really close phrases. And you could see any way from, like, you know, democrats to plus one, to Republicans to plus two, I think.

So, again, generally, what happens is the election breaks in the last four days. Right? And it breaks two percent in one point of favor or not. And you you you you went all the closings, so you lose all the closings. I’m more bullish on on Georgia that you are, a friend of mine who do a lot of state senate district poll in who do, you know, a lot of DA’s races, Poland, that kind of stuff in Georgia.

And they say to a person that Stacy in a way at any pole is running below two thousand eighteen. Of course, I think she was at forty nine in two thousand eighteen. I think WarnerG does win. And I think Stacy will win a come closer than people think. I just saw a a mass data dump.

That Kemp’s favorability is down five points among white, and I’m pretty sure that’s Magna at work. Because, you know, you see Kemp saying he don’t wanna comply with subpoena from the Fulton County DA. Yes. He understands that he’s gotta shore up his mega vote. And I I I gotta look deeply because they sent it to me this morning when I was preparing for your show.

But it was a big data dump. It looked pretty reliable to me. One

of the things that’s finding we have a great piece up on the site today by Amanda Carpenter about how his lieutenant governor candidate, Bert Jones. Was one of the fake electors. Yeah. You know what? You know, I’m helping Charlie.

I think

Right. Yeah. I’m helping Charlie Bailey. He was trying for lieutenant governor. Help them in the primary.

Yeah. Yeah. You know, time. You just wonder

how does a guy like and Kemp have it both ways where he says, he didn’t walk that guy. Wait. No. But, you know, where his his position is the twenty twenty election was free fair and legitimate. Also, I had to pass this big law to make sure we don’t ever have something terrible happen again, like in twenty twenty.

And this other guy who wanted to overthrow the election, yeah, sure. You know, we’re on the same we’re on the same page here. Like, it’s crazy. But I’m

kept in a in a vice because he’s he he’s got to show up as support with the Magna people. And he’s got to cut in, you know, he’s you know, and he was gonna win it, like, in North Fulton, you know, some of the more affluent areas that the traditional Republican, but Okay. Stacey has a much better chance than people give her credit for her. She’s close enough where look, if everything goes Like, we think it’s gonna go. Kemp would probably win in a close election, but it he doesn’t have a lot of room for margin.

I promise you. In the Dobbs decision. Really, you know, I hear this all the time because I’ve talked to these focus group guys a lot. On a on a choice issue, there’s no difference between racial difference or educational or social differences among women. It’s all about the same.

Now, for women, if you do a

focus

group, they can’t believe that that happened. Well, that can’t be. True, can it? Yeah, it’s true. And if they’re awakened to this, it it it it’s gonna cause some grief.

It’s gonna cause some grief.

Well, if Stacey Abrams wins, I think she automatically becomes basically a top tier contender for twenty twenty four, which is then the the last series politics thing I wanna talk to you about. I’m looking for you to give me some cover here because we have long running internal bulwark dispute over, should Joe Biden run for reelection? I think I am the only person on staff who says, absolutely Biden shouldn’t run. Crystal, Tim, Sarah, Charlie, everybody else’s, you know, now Biden shouldn’t run. His numbers are terrible.

He’s so old. My argument is that just as an objective legislative matter, he’s had the most successful first two years of president, probably since w. He is poised to have one of the most successful first midterm elections of any president since Nixon. There is no viable alternative right now. Certainly Kamala Harris is not a viable alternative.

And that the advantages of incumbency ultimately outweigh whatever other negatives he brings along them. Am

I crazy on this? Well, first of all, there’s a fact that he’s had this

legislation’s success, and you don’t know. But let’s assume that that they’ve already had successful November, but more successful than people anticipated. Does this make him more or less likely to run for reelection? Alright. Could if he feels like he hasn’t done that much, you know, I I I know he’s fully aware of his place in history.

He he made he he could say that he could he could go to him and say, sir, your four years have been more consequential than anybody’s eight years since world war two. And you know, I’m gonna be seventy eight in October. I’m not the same as I used to be. Trust me. And he got a so so let let let then he’ll make that decision.

But but one of the great falsehoods that is repeated all the time. Well, if he doesn’t run, the democrats don’t have anybody decidedly not true. Let me real off some names and say, well, you know, I can see him being president. I I mean, I’d be funny to say, how Kamala Harris, Gavin Newsom, J Enzley, Amy Klobuchar, JB Prisca, Gretchen Whitmer, Gino Rommato, Pete Buttigieg, Roy Cooper, my favorite Michelinger. Well, I’ll give you some insight on nominating a democratic president.

Yes. Three essential things you have to grade each candidate out. First is the ability to raise early money because you gotta come out to shoot hard and you have to have a real fundraising big. Second, probably most important is what access do you have to Southern blacks? Are they going to pay attention to you?

Because we knew that, remember, we lost New Hampshire, I think, eight points in ninety two. And once we’ve went to Georgia and South Carolina, it was basically gang mobile. Hillary won New Hampshire in two thousand eight. Once Obama goes down south, you know, that pretty much seals it Biden didn’t even have a freaking campaign until Cleveland and Dawson’s out of Carolina. And the day after, it was over.

Right. The whole race was over. So bill to raise money when you walk into a black church or town hall or are they gonna pay attention to you? And and number three, how good are you on your feet? It still matters.

And when people see somebody good on their feet, you know, that person is good. They’re saying what I think that they’ve taken the parties in in in a direction I like. And there are a lot of people that, you know, stayed worn out, I think, would be maybe even more than Stacy, but I I it’s kinda hard to run for president when take office and you you run-in a a year late. That’s a big leap. And I’m not sure.

Stacy is a good enough politician. She may say, look, let me ship this job for a while. I’m still young enough

to deal with other things. And I’m sure I forgot somebody and I apologize in advance Jared Polis. That’s that’s Tim’s guy. Right? Tim Bullis, you know,

somewhere else hanging on

his phone right

now saying, stay Polis saved me off. God. God. God. God.

Paul, he I could definitely see him as president. And you wouldn’t say, oh, come on. Not that guy. He could be a capable guy. I I you know.

But the big thing is, how did Jared Polis walk into the Black Church in the Carolinas? Yeah. Can you do that? You can’t what? That’s the democratic party.

The democratic party is not a bunch of, you know, people in faculty lounges trying to rewrite dictionaries. The Democratic Party basically blacks and, you know, people that kind of look to the federal government for protection from the harsher edges of capitalism. That that’s The way I would define, move to Democrat. Yeah. And that’s why warnock is,

I think, a very, very formidable guy if he wins his race. Yeah. He’s a great communicator.

This is one of those things

where you look at alternate histories. If a a few votes go the other way in twenty eighteen, and Stacey Abrams is the sitting governor in Georgia, than I think if she’s not the vice president, what she

might have

been, then I think she is probably the presumed successor to Biden if she’s the sitting governor now and why I

think the She’s just big figure in American politics. Yeah. She’s she’s

just very, very formidable. Right. And that’s why I said if if if you’re right and she’s able to to pull out a a win in

Georgia, I think

she she runs to the top of the list right away. I’m

not saying that she’s gone to. I’m just saying she’s in better position than people think. So do you think that Biden doesn’t run again or shouldn’t run again? Or what I mean, I I’m I’m pretty probed and

just as a — Right. — political matter. I think that he’s what he’s got is powerful. He has a real coalition He has hundred percent name ID, which on these other people will start with. He has the ability to fly around on Air Force One when he shows up in places, and he’s connected to voters, like people voted for him a whole bunch of times now.

You know? He’s been in front of them. And he’s not polarizing. Right? The people who hate him don’t hate him that much.

You know? So

the answer is if he wants to run, he’s gonna be the party nowadays. He’s completely deserved that. Just knowing Democrats as I do, it would be kind of bad manners, you know. But but did he you know, he’s got the fact that a lot of things in his decision. I suspect that his wife will be, as it’s generally the case, the the most influential thing.

But I I you know, like I said, somebody that’s almost as old as Biden, I I it’s got to be weighing on his mind. Yeah.

Alright. Before I let you go, James, I gotta know what watches on your wrist right now. I have my pattice pilots’ wife get my

wife got me. I think I like the second one in North America because she’s saying next next to mister Stern at some kind of banquet in New York and said by husband, this has to have it. So I I I I kind of sleep with this for the day, the truth. I And surely, it’s the only petech in the

state of Louisiana. When did she was this an anniversary gift? Or Well, a a

Valentine’s gift, like a two thousand fifteen, I think. I mean, it was literally it was like the second now you can walk in the most places and get one, but they really really it was a very controversial watch. I’m I’m not, you know, the patek or whatever you call it. They’re very intense people and it has — Oh, yeah. — big numbers and, you know, it wasn’t like it was supposed to be and it was like a pilot’s watch and it was too big and flat, flat, flat, everybody wanted white steel glass.

You know, the the tech,

I don’t know if they’ve changed it, but they’re they’re slogan, the tagline they used to have was you never own a protect for what? You only hold on to it for the next generation because these things last for forever. Were you a watch guy? Or did she just come out of nowhere and drop the sun? Kind of started a little bit.

I’ve read some of the magazines. I’m hardly collect a person of real knowledge. But, you know, the way I look at watches is you’re gonna look at that watch hundred and fifty time today. Yeah. You’re right.

It makes no sense because it’s it can’t keep as good a time. Is it is it, you know, ten dollar time actually get it to Walmart. Yeah. But but, you know, if you’re gonna look at something the hundred and fifty times a day, why not look at something pretty that you want to look at? I’m I’m It means

something to you. Right? It means

something to you. And and, you know, basically, if you buy a good watch, if it’s a it’s a pedic or even a Rolex, or any, you know, any of the it’s a savings bond that tells the time.

Well, that’s that’s interesting, you know. That’s

just

yeah. But that’s what you got. It’s something that you can enjoy for a long time. You know, and I can wear this watch with anything. I don’t you know, I’m not you know, some of these people have to have certain kind of watch for a certain time.

I don’t I don’t spend that kind of money. But that’s my case for buying a better watch and you think you need it. You’re gonna look at it a lot for the rest of your life. Well, I not look

at something good. One of the things I when I’m proselytizing, I watch as to people I say, is that you’re gonna give them to your kids too. Right? You’re gonna give The best watch honestly is your dad’s watch. Right?

If your dad had a watch that he loved and wore every day, and then when he passes on, he gives it to you, no matter what that watch is, whether it is a seiko or a tag hoyer or a Rolex or a petech, you’re just gonna be in love with that thing. And, like, every every every father with kids should wear watches and leave them to their kids is something they can have on their wrist as part of them every day. And that protect, man. I saw a picture of that, and I thought James is my man.

Alright. So that one more washer, so we’ll go. A a friend of mine is now deceased. Pretty wealthy guy. He was gonna do something really stupid.

And I said you’re not you’re not gonna do any such fucking thing. Do you understand? And this is a really dumb idea. See, calling back, it says your body is a dumb idea. So next time we’ll see him.

Here’s me a box. It’s a Ardmore’s Royal

Oak.

Every time you look at that watch, I want you to remember how you saved my ass. Alright. So I could I could never look at the watch without thinking, you know. But Sky, don’t do what you’re getting ready to do. And I gave it to my son-in-law.

That is Yeah. Amazing.

So somebody if

if you have a little disposable income and somebody does you big favor of service. Give them a good watch. You know, don’t don’t have a look at it without thinking of it. Watch is one of

my go to presence for exactly that reason. James Carville, cohost in the politics war room. James, thanks so much for coming and spending some time with us. Hi, Donald. Good to

see you again.

Guys, thank you for listening to the Bulwark podcast. We’ll be back again tomorrow. Leave this all over again.

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