Mike Murphy: Democrats Should Run like They’re Five Points Behind

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Welcome to the Bullwear Podcast. I’m Charlie Sykes, and I am back. First of all, I just wanna thank everybody who sat in for me over the last week, Tim Miller, Monochiren, JBL, and of course, Amanda Carpenter. By the way, Amanda Carpenter’s new podcast need to know is just absolutely fantastic. I mean, definitely, elevating the the the podcast.

So I appreciate all of that. And of course, there’s always that disorienting moment where you come back from a vacation or, in my case, a vacation, family reunion, birth of a new baby wedding, you know, saying goodbye to the French grandkids and all of that, and then suddenly being back here and going, okay, what did I miss? What’s happened in the world? So that’s what we’re gonna talk about. So Mike Murphy, thank you so much for helping me reenter our dysfunctional world here.

Well, if you have, you know, I would advise you as a friend to backtrack and escape it. Because it’s incredibly dysfunctional and depressing. If you’ve got any rest better place of peace to go, I’d go there. It

is just grim. I tried, and then so the reentry is a little bit traumatic. So, hey, for our listeners who the handful of you who do not know Mike Murphy, he’s a GOP strategist consultant is advised leading Republican politicians, including John McCain, Arnold Schwartz Nager Mitt Romney, and a co direct of the USC Center for the political future and most important of all cohost of the podcast hacks on tap. And fellow rage monster about American politics. Is that is that is that fair?

Oh, absolutely. I’m I

keep wondering why I don’t turn green. Every time I see Trump and, like, go on a rampage and throw some trucks around because, yeah, I’m a total rage master these days.

And so we we can I wanna back into the I’m sorry, visible bullshit by the federal judge in the in the case of Bar Alaga. I mean, I suppose all we need to do is just sort of play Bill Bar that when Bill Barr thinks that the judge blew it. You know it’s bad. He he goes on Fox News. The opinion, I think, was wrong, and the government should appeal it.

It’s deeply bought in a number of ways. Yeah.

When he’s offended, you know, it’s a it’s

a something. It it is something. We can we can break that down. But, you know, we’ll we’ll start off with the today’s latest bombshell that, you know, like, okay, I I this is where I struggle against the PTSD of, like, know, knowing that it’s not gonna make a difference, and we’ll forget about it forty eight hours from now. But it does seem to be kind of a BFD that Washington Post is porting this morning that material on foreign nations nuclear capabilities were seized at Trump’s Marmalago, a document describing a foreign government’s military defenses, including its nuclear capabilities, was found by FBI agents who searched former president Donald Trump’s Mar a Lago residence in private club last month according to people familiar with the matter, Yes.

Here’s an understatement. Underscoring concerns among US intelligence officials about classified material stashed in the Florida property. Now we’re in this weird world, Mike, because you can sort of you you you and I both old enough to remember when Marco Rubio was not a total squish hack or is that it it might be naive there. Was he always his total speech back? Okay.

Help me. Help me. You know,

look, I was one of his first donors when he first ran for Senate. I I know Marco pretty well from those days anyway, but he has developed a super human ability to slide under a closed door now in the Trump era, which is much like Lindsey Graham, another old friend of mine disappointing. So it’s been a I have to stretch my memory to remember good Marco. It’s

it’s almost like Marco Robio is looking at Lindsay Graham and thinking, you know, I could be him. Yeah. I completely understand. Don’t know. So this story breaks Steve Ducey, on Fox News, who is going through some interesting things, recognizes kind of a a big deal, and he’s talking with Marco Rubio about it who doesn’t think it’s a big deal.

Let’s just play about a minute and a half of that.

No. You can understand why, you know, when we first heard about this stuff when we heard, well, maybe it’s things like a a note from Kim Jong un to president Trump that he wanted to keep his hands on. But then, if true, this Washington Post report, highly classified documents and moral law go. That only a cabinet level officer or hire could even look at. That doesn’t seem like the kind of thing you should have in your post presidential desk drawer.

Well, let’s break this down. First of all, again, we we really don’t know. Because let’s go back and understand that all of this information is coming from one side and one place. And that is sources with knowledge of the investigation or who are the sources with knowledge of the investigation, the FBI and the justice department, and they are leaking to the media. So generally, when there’s an investigation by the FBI or justice department, they’re not even acknowledging there is an investigation much less leaking.

These people every single day are strategically leaking information. I can’t be rebutted by the way or in any way analyzed for a reason. And that’s politics to influence the narrative. And so I’m, first of all, very skeptical of that. I also, the whole thing about only cabinet officials can know that that’s not the way classification works.

Classification is based on both the compartment, the way it’s classified at what level, and then the need to know basis.

Yeah. Harbato Harbato.

Yeah. Yeah. Yes. Shorter version of of Marco Rubio. He’s way way more concerned about the leaking by the evil FBI and justice department.

This is about the fact that Donald Trump had a box full of nuclear information.

Yeah. No. It’s still softest trick. Well, the staples were crooked on the document. So I’m not sure what’s really going on, so I can’t really have an opinion about it.

You know, it’s ridiculous. But again, I

think we’re gonna see the the pattern for people think, well, no, this is gonna be the breaking point. You know, that that were, you know, sane, grown up Republicans are gonna look at this and go, okay, I thought it was just, you know, some random notes, but actual nuclear secrets. Okay. You know, I’m I’m done. No.

They will always find a way to And the word spin doesn’t feel strong enough. Softistry, I think, is better. Yeah. No. I think I think Softistry is the thing.

They’re creating this alternate

reality. Now the minute Trump starts to implode within the rank and file or or decline, and there’s evidence that he is. Then they’re all gonna pivot again. Well, yeah, I was very troubled the whole time. I called the Vichy GOP.

You know? Well, I was in my basement working on my my counterattack plan, but no need to move too quick until the British American tanks are out front, then I can make my move. You know, it it’s just I don’t know. It’s like like we said, we’re rage monsters about it. I do think that the press the DC press is session with covering the legal maneuvering like the Super Bowl is not always that helpful.

I get the journalistic imperative to do it. But it makes it look like another Washington kitten swipe, you know, moral equivalence fight. When when the headline here is, the highly classified both defense department and apparently CIA material, which puts sources and methods at risk which can result in the death of intelligence assets. It’s really, really big stuff, and I think they have to keep the eye on that ball rather than the whatever the the the red shoe laces are untied. No.

I I agree. And and that’s where you you pull back the lens a little bit and the way you just to tribe that is obviously a big deal, but it’s also easier to understand. I mean, there was, of course, the the danger that you get lost in some minutiae of of documents and and classification stuff that that, you know, ten people actually understand. This is becoming, I think, easier to talk about. So one of the themes that I wanted to touch on today was is the whole shift in conventional wisdom and, you know, I’m I’m off the grid for seven days and and come back.

And it is really remarkable how the herd moves. And when it moves, really moves to paraphrase Boris Johnson, that, you know, when I left, there was sort of a little bit of tentative suggestion that maybe the midterms might not be the Republican blowout. And now it’s It’s all very, you know, solidly like, hey, you know, Dobbs is turning the corner, and I wanna get to that in a moment. The other conventional wisdom though since we’re on this Mar a Lago issue.

Up

until a few weeks ago, there was this sense, I think, that perhaps the the raid was exactly what Donald Trump needed to solidify his control over the Republican Party that this was very good for Donald Trump Republicans were rallying around that that perhaps the DOJ had blown it by doing all of this. Well, I come back to see one of the masters of conventional wisdom, Karl Roe, saying that this whole Trump document thing actually might blow the midterms for Republicans suggesting that this is actually working against Republicans and four Democrats, which feels like it’s sort of the opposite of the conventional wisdom from two weeks ago. But here’s Karl Rose’s take on this. Since the search on August eighth.

What have we been talking about? We’re now just shy of a month of talking about this issue. AND IF YOU’RE A DEMOCRAT, YOU LOVE IT BECAUSE THE REPUBLICANS ARE FORCED TO TALK ABOUT TRUMP TAKING CLASSIFIED DOCUMENTS TOMORRALAGO instead of inflation economy, the crisis at the border are crime. So if you’re a Democrat, you want them to be talking about THIS. IF YOU’RE REPUBLICAN, YOU REALLY WANT TO BE TALKING ABOUT THESE THINGS.

AND SO IONICALLY ENOUGH THE DECISION FOR A SPECIAL MASTER as you’ve heard, this is gonna slow the whole process up.

Mike Murphy, what do you think?

Well, look, Carl’s looking at it from campaign one zero one. Right. And that’s not a crazy thing to do, which is what’s on the front page? Our stuff for their stuff. Because a lot of campaign communication is ball control.

You know, are we talking about the price of gas and groceries? Or are we talking about will Trump go to jail? What jail will they put them in? And he’s right. You know, when whenever the focus is not on your stuff, it’s a better day for the other side.

Now there are big macro forces working here. But I I do believe, and I’ve argued on Hicks on TAP, and I I think a lot of consultant types feel that the more unpopular Trump and his problems, if as Trump interjects himself into the spotlight, that’s better for the r excuse me, better for the d’s than the r’s. Now does it determine the whole outcome of a midyear thing with a lot of moving parts. No. But the noise is not about gas prices, inflation, and groceries.

Now it is in everyday people’s lives, it’s not the narrative now. The the narrative is this and that is is not the narrative that’s optimal for the for pubs. You know, bang and the hell out of bite. Yes. So let’s talk about this.

About the state of play. Is this Labor Day still, like,

the official beginning of the campaign? It feels like there’s never an official beginning because we’re in That’s the number. It’s all. Yeah.

Yeah. It’s the traditional beginning, but no. Campaign is now in the modern twenty four seven cable wallpaper world and all the digital and the the fundraising communication, which is no longer behind closed doors, but it’s mass mailings and all that. You know, the parties have become kind of a catalog business. Where they constantly are talking to their their people.

So it never really ends. A Labor Day is traditionally when everything notches up a little. Let’s

pretend it’s nineteen forty six then. I mean Alright.

Alright. So I hear there’s a big whistle stop coming. Yeah. Yeah.

So Trump is pushing himself into the election campaign. There’s Republican in fighting between queen, Mitch McConnell, and Rick Scott about the National Republican senatorial Committee. You made the comment last week Democrats don’t get ahead of yourself. So I wanna get just get a sense of this because you and I are both old enough to sort of remember in fact, I had to restrain myself from going back and googling. Pulling from August of two thousand eighteen is gonna say that, you know, Democrats are gonna win the governorship in Florida and Georgia and things like that.

So you’ve argued that democrats shouldn’t get ahead of themselves, but so where do you see the state of play right now? Well,

I I think it’s a big mixing bowl. So, you know, if we step back to the biggest forces. One, it’s a midterm election, traditionally, the incumbent new president is punished. You know, the long term averages, loses twenty six seats. Then we’ve got record inflation.

You know, maybe I’m really rating a teeny bit, but still huge, which has driven up prices that people deal with every week. Biden’s approval numbers are pretty terrible among the lowest of any president facing a midterm and modern history, if not the lowest. So the big stuff says they get wiped out. Then you add kind of the second layer of things, which is often what drives the media narrative, because, you know, every all the Washington soupsayers, you have to get on cable TV and I’m one of them except I’ve done, you know, a hundred campaigns. So I’ve kind of been in this world, but you have to have an opinion.

So you you scan a few polls and you say, hey, the generic ballot and you get your four buzz words lined up and you try to stand the herd, gives us dangerous to go outside the herd. So the new stuff is one, Dobbs, potential surge in turnout among young voters who traditionally don’t vote in the midterms as much as older voters do, which would, if that happens, help the Democrats. And there’s some evidence in the Kansas primary election in the special up in New York and the Hudson Valley that particularly around college town. Some of that’s happening. If true, good for the Democrats, there’s some early evidence that could be happening.

The question is how big it’ll have to be awful big. And then you’ve got the Republican clown show, which is not only have they been nominating cement block candidates, particularly with Trump’s help, in the senate races, you also have this huge internal fight at the NRC, the senate committee, and I can get into all that. Mhmm. But Fundamentally, the stuff that the press loves to pay attention to tactics, ads, personalities in Washington are all bad for the Republicans. And then, of course, the abortion issue which is huge in voter land is super huge in media land because generally most people who are in the elite media probably and lean a lot more pro choice than pro life, but that does reflect most swing voters too.

So anyway, all that stuff plus psychology I mean, we do a heads on top newsletter, and we have a Democratic pro clutching index every week. Because, you know, we’re we’re the stupid party and they’re the neurotic party, really. And so you add all that together and the irresistible narrative is Democrats haven’t come back. And of course, the demos psychologically have been so far down in the dumps. We’re gonna get wiped out at the end of the world.

Speaker Kevin McCarthy, Mitch McConnell, Biden’s over. These green shoots in the data, and there are some. Our hopeful, and that’s led to kind of an explosion of euphoria. Now, I’ve been around, as you said, I I can be carbon dated. I’ve I’ve been at this since nineteen eighty two.

And August polling is not always a guarantor of November results. So I do think particularly in the senate races, the Democrats are punching above their historical weight right now, and they may pull it off. But we have a lot of campaign left. You show me Joe Biden’s numbers, particularly on the economy, on the twentieth of October, and then I’ll predict the future. Until then, I’ll predict history, which is the Republicans despite their stupidity and pandering and now gone for hours.

Are for free gonna have some good results. I mean, look at Hershel Walker, the worst candidate in the world in theory, every day he said something stupid, yet he’s in the hunt in Georgia. It’s a tide race. So that gives you the idea of how big a pushback wave can be. And last thing I’d say is we have a nation a very grumpy voters on both sides.

And in about five of the last six or seven elections, they fired the party in power or tried to. You know, they voted against it. So it’s hard for me to believe that all that has changed, although the things on the margin that make a difference like candidate, quality, Mitch, is right, is going for the Democrat. So that that might tip a senate race or two. But, you know, I remember nineteen eighty where some candidates won senate races.

They were not expect to win because it was a wave election. And many of those candidates who later, you had to call it senator were were scoffed at. So I would I would tell the Democrats to run like your five points behind because I think you probably are.

So, you know, I’m I’m I’m trying to to sort out this this August wishful thinking. But Amy Walter has a really interesting observation. She says the Democrats appear right at least now to be winning over which calls the Me voters. The yeah. Democratic senate candidates have been consistently out polling Biden’s job approval ratings in their states when it comes the House, the Cheryl voters who say they would vote for Democrats is anywhere between one to eight points higher than the percentage of voters who say the approve of the job Biden is doing.

In other words, many voters who aren’t happy with Biden are nonetheless committed to supporting a Democratic candidate. In other words, those who were met about Biden are voting for the dams. This is not something we’ve seen before. So there’s a decoupling. Yeah.

Yeah. Generally, certainly things kinda land on the big guy and the big job. And, yeah, and that’s the it’s a referendum of the president. Now Amy’s right, the election were held tomorrow. I think and the the dam bubble is there in the data.

It’s not a huge bubble, but it’s there. But we’re we’re see what happens after we grind through campaign for sixty days, and then then we really land this thing. And I bet the Biden number is the most predictive. If if I was a Biden person, or a democratic campaign strategist, I would be all in to what the hell can we do to get Biden about seven or eight more points of favorable on the economy? I think the chip’s bill, they ought to sell that, like, the Apollo project myself.

But I thought Biden made a mistake with his speech on the evil maga world. Now as a citizen, I agree with every word of it. And as a president, I’m kinda glad he said it, but as a political tactic, again, Biden can’t move his own numbers a bit relevant to people’s everyday kitchen table, economic I think punishment is coming at least in the house. And the senate raises it should kind of be a disaster for Republican. Some of these horrible candidates could come back to life.

Okay.

So you said that was a mistake. There was a lot of a lot of chatter on on the bulwark about about that speech. On the other hand, this was a moment where Joe Biden came out and said, this is going to be a choice election, and here is the nature of the crisis. Rather than try to pretend that, you know, somehow the election’s going to turn on, you know, student debt forgiveness or the inflation reduction act he said, look, we’re we’re facing a an anti democratic, fascist threat. It’s not something the president really needed to say if you are going to elevate the choice aspect of this midterm election as opposed to just a referendum on his presidency.

Yeah.

Well, look, I don’t wanna do a rubial invitation here, but I get why he said it. I think it needed to be said. But it’s a political matter to win the midterms. That we’re right, your evil debate. It’ll please folks like us, you know, Republicans who can’t believe what’s happened to our party.

I’m I’m conservative. But to go win the election to maintain political power. I don’t think he ought to brainstorm in that message. I think there’s two things he can do. Try to push it to the economy and do himself some help, and he’s got some things to say there or fade out and try not to be in the center of the election as much.

Because it becomes a referendum on him and where his numbers are right now, they don’t want that. It’s not unlike the Trump thing we talked about earlier. So tell me about you’re suggesting that the Democrat should make Chipped

Act, the Apollo program. You’re arguing that the act should be painted as a response to the big threat to our national security from China and they could be saying, hey, we are taking leadership for the future jobs to pay a hundred thousand dollars a year in the industrial Midwest, and we’re taking the jobs away from the Chinese Right? Yeah.

Yeah. I mean, I’d be asking why over a hundred and sixty Republican congressman voted to deny America technological security to help the people’s Republican China and kill a significant number of a hundred thousand dollar a year manufacturing jobs when they get on team Chinese communist. What kind of Republicans are there? I would be all offense on the do nothing anti this anti that Republican congress and frame it up that way. You’re either with the red Chinese or with good paying American jobs to secure our technological future.

We’re building plants in Ohio. That is something you can run on. And get it out of the Washington State of the Chips Act and everything. But, yeah, there’s national security component. There’s a Team USA versus Team China thing, and there’s a huge surge in good paying futuristic jobs.

So the the thing is just chock full of winners. And he can even for the suburban squishy Republican vote. He can talk about this as a bipartisan accomplishment. We actually put our ad is down and get something done for America. Who opposed it?

Most of your Republican congressman did. Because they don’t wanna get something done for America. They wanna get something done for crazy guy in Florida and his buddies in red China, you know, offense offense offense. And

the democrats have been searching for that issue, that message to get back some of those blue collar rural voters in places like Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. This this seems like a real possibility. Okay. Just

an interjection. If Tim Ryan can’t pull off his long shot in Ohio in the senate race, and Vance is one of those hapless candidates that a wave might still elect, I’d make him head of the DNC. Yeah. And the identity police will go crazy, but he is exactly on message him for those voters that Trump goes after. He knows exactly what to do.

Howard Bauchner:

So these wild cards that we’re talking, you know, the wild cards, you know, Dobbs being a major wild card, obviously, issues like this. And and of course, you you mentioned this before Trump elevating himself into the election, you know, and there are reasons to think that he might still announce sooner rather than later because he thinks the legal system hates to get involved in in campaigns. So you think if I’m reading your stuff correctly, that that all this legal trouble is actually pushing him out more onto the campaign trail and you saw that over the weekend where he sure sounded like he was he was in this race. Yeah. So

I think totally. So I don’t know how much of this is just animal cunning and how much of it is, you know, thinking it through. If Trump generally short the idea he’s thinking it through, but it is true. And I I’ve been to this movie myself in some campaigns. That one thing ingrained in the legal system at every level is we don’t interfere with ongoing elections.

You know, we don’t put a heavy federal thumb and we remember all the stuff with Hillary and Comey and all that. It’s just it’s an anthethema to him. So Trump is thinking the sooner I can argue on being persecuted politically as a candidate. That’ll have a deterrent effect on the prosecutions. Second, I think he’s feeling insecure because of the talk about DeSantis and others.

I mean, a couple months ago, yeah, Trump actually went on the road to meet big donors. That is a new move for him. Normally, people have to come to him because he’s the kingpin. He’s super strong. Now he’s feeling weak, which, of course, undermines his brand totally.

So the on one hand, announcing early is a sign of weakness to me. On the political side that he feels he has to scurry into the race because other people are taking space. On the other hand, as a tactic to try to chill the prosecution a little bit and put him on uncomfortable ground, the sooner he can say, I’m running for president and the left is trying to stop me with their their friends and the up legal system, the better form, as corrosive as it is to our system. I mean, one of the problems with Trump is we have never really at the presidential level operated with somebody who has absolutely no shame. Nixon had shame, Clinton had shame, not always a lot of — Yeah.

— but but but Trump’s like a sociopath this way. And so that’s how he does so much damage. But in his raw interest, I think, yeah, announcing at least on the legal side. I’m not sure at all on the on the pure politics side. I think there’s probably a move for him.

That plus the special master gives him a little moving room to slow it down and try to build a political candidate

point of view wall against it. But I’m guessing that Mitch McConnell and both Mitch McConnell and Kevin McCarthy understand that that would be huge boat anchor on them if that had yet done before November. I mean, that is, like, the worst case scenario for down ballot Republican. And in many ways, exactly the boost the Democrats need to have to make it not just about Joe Biden in the economy and everything, but to make it this choice election. I mean, it it makes it as stark as you could possibly

make it. Oh, it totally doesn’t Trump or really own Republican underperform. I mean, the rumors in the Republican house caucus now, you know, those guys like to sit around and jump up and down and watch Braveheart together. So they thought they were gonna win thirty five seats. Now it’s gonna be thinner.

I think it was always gonna be thinner, but it’s much more likely to be thinner. Which will put McCarthy in jeopardy. He may have the Shakespearean ending of Trump doing him in too. And with a real speaker challenge, you know, if he if he dramatically underperforms the crazy expectations he’s facing there. But, yeah, you’re right.

It’s Trump’s got no good outcome here. And the legal stuff is enough, by the way, despite the chilling effect, because who wants to meddle in an election. He he’s in deep enough legal problems that and I don’t know if that’s nearly enough to stop it, probably not. So,

Kevin McCarthy, you you you mentioned that there’s anger in the troops. I mean, because they had been counting on this big, big, big wave. And if it’s small, if it’s just like nine seats, you know, they they get control. But but does Kevin McCarthy get to be speaker if if that if they underperform and that margin is that small, which gives obviously, March retailer Green and company who completed Vido Power.

Oh, I think I think he’s in trouble. I mean, he he does not have a lock on that cork. He’s just like the cowardly lion tamper. You know, as long as he can keep throwing a mistake and the big lion outside the cage doesn’t tell the other lions to eat them. But if he underperforms, I think he’s gonna have bumps in trouble.

You know, he and and it’s looking like underperformance because they’ve let you know, again, this has been the the the clownish campaign year. They have let expectations run wild on the Republican side. They have nominated terrible senate candidates. And now Rick Scott, center from Florida drain the NRSROIC to do what we call prospecting, which is where you lose money getting donors on the theory that the small donors you get will give and give and give and over time become profitable. So they blew a lot of money they could use for campaigns now on prospecting, at loss to gain these new donors.

But what was really going on was some hacks said this, Scott, hey, we’re gonna go out and hit every grassroots republican in the country try to convert him into a donor with you. You’re gonna be the spokesman. You’re gonna be on the digital blah blah blah. It was a pre presidential move. And his colleagues are onto it.

So, you know, the the senate committee and they’re feuding with McConnell. Now McConnell has his own big smart political operation with money they’re gonna supplant the senate committee some. But again, it’s a huge unforced error based on stupid Rick Scott behavior. And greedy behavior. That is again gonna be a problem in some of these senate races that are on the knifesedge.

Well, I know so Rick

Scott was the real man of political genius who decided to put the issue of Social Security and Medicare on the agenda, right, suggesting that they’d be made, you know Right. Perfect.

October debate. Right? Yeah. This is and by the way, and

you

could see this a lot of the ads. Okay. So speaking of the ads, and you had some thoughts about this the other day. I look, I I I really you know, at at this point, I hope I’m wrong. But I I have been suggesting for months now that Democrats had a great chance to win the senate seat here in Wisconsin, and they nominated Maybe the one guy who is too progressive.

So the the Mandela Barnes ish. Now, this is another case where you have August polling showing that Johnson, Ron Johnson, is so unpopular that Mandela Barnes comes out of the primary with a seven point lead I am skeptical. You, mister Murphy? I am skeptical too because

when you win a primary, you get a bump. Yeah. And then there’s a poll and you’re it’s almost often the best poll you have. Now Johnson is eminently fireable. He is in trouble.

As you know, better than anybody, Wisconsin is a real fifty fifty state. But what’s coming? What’s not in these August, low Senator Barnes polls? Is

they’re

gonna put Mandela Barnes to about fifty car washes of negative ads. And they’re all gonna be lefty lefty stuff. Now, On the Democratic side, you might argue that Johnson is so bad that he’s the one Republican even Mandela Barnes can beat. And on the Republican side, it’s the same. Mandela Barnes is the one super lefty Democrat that even Ron Johnson compete.

So it’s gonna be kind of a fair fight. I think it’ll be a closed election. Yeah. But I don’t believe that lead for one minute is predictive of where this thing will be in October. No.

And and and this this is something I’ve been warning people about is you know, do you take the numbers and then say, what will they be after twenty million dollars worth of Apple researchers dropped on your head? So I got a text message early this morning. From somebody here in Wisconsin who’s watching television more carefully than I have been out of town. And they’ve already started the ads IMDEAT M Mandela Barnes. And the one ad that is getting a lot of traction, a lot of attention is an ad pointing out that as lieutenant governor, which is not a big job here in Wisconsin, So I

remember when I worked for Tommy Thompson, I think we moved the port lieutenant governor into a broom closet. Oh, I know. I mean Yeah. He felt that. It was it was it was awkward.

I

remember that too. So the the ads are pointing out that Mandela Barnes spent six hundred thousand dollars on, you know, in taxpayer money on his personal security, which is ten times anything his predecessor had ever spent. So six hundred thousand dollars, at the same time, he was flirting with the defund of the police people. So they’re connecting the two The guy has flirted with the defund of the police. He’s trying to back away from that, but spent six hundred thousand dollars and around the clock security service for himself, and they’re just pounding that hypocrisy.

And that is just, I would say, an or nerve. That’s just a impending election. Where this is gonna go? Palad cleanser

for work. No. No. It’s gonna be nuclear because they’re ready to fire Johnson. But it could be a Republican wave year and and, you know, Mandela Barnes is the opponent, I think, that Johnson really wanted.

So that this thing will will just grind along both ways. Mandela Barnes can win. Johnson isn’t that much trouble, but you’ve got to think that national generic environment is a a thumb on the scale. Now people are gonna argue that because of the Dodd decision, Dean County is gonna have presidential turnout and all that. And it probably will be higher than normal, and that’s good for Barnes, but boy oh boy.

It’s Johnson got the opponent. He needed to have a shot in survival. I put it that way. Okay. So I

know that you’ve been working on Evan McMullen’s campaign and you and I am absolutely fascinated by that and have been kind of kicking myself that we haven’t been spending more time on Evan McMullen’s bid in Utah against the rather surprisingly Trumpist, Mike Lee, who at one time, was was was never Trump, who’s now like like many of his colleagues come around. Yeah. Super Trump now. But this Utah story is fascinating because Evan McMullen is running as an independent, and the Democrats basically made the the strategic decision to stand down. So what’s what’s going on in Utah?

Oh, it’s

the most fascinating race in the country, and it’s being under covered. And hopefully, I would encourage listeners to go to Evan’s website. There’s a lot of good content. He did a big speech yesterday. So and to clarify, I’m working for the Super PAC.

I’m not working the campaign. But he was a friend of mine, and before we established the super PAC, and before he announced we had a lot of discussions about how to do this, which, you know, is tricky. So what has happened is when Mike Lee is in legitimate hometown trouble — Mhmm. — for a variety of reasons. And so he’s vulnerable kinda like a Ron Johnson even in Red Red Utah.

He had a primary challenge from a credible state senator which held him to, I think, high fifty is, like, fifty eight, fifty nine percent of the vote. So, you know, he had forty percent of the hours already choose somebody else in primary. So he’s got a lot of just Mike Lee problems. The Democrats who know they, you know, have a very hard path there to win, decided at their convention with a lot of leadership from Ben McAdams, who is a serve the term in congress as kind of a leader of the part. To not run anybody for senate.

Now they’re not wild for McMullen because they know he’s a center right guy. But they’re they wanna get rid of Mike Lee because, you know, they know he’s just not up to the gig. So it’s become a competitive race. Lee is in the mid forties, and Evan is now on TV, and our super PAC has been on TV. Has been creeping up to, you know, their newspaper polls of four points.

Likely says it’s, you know, a hundred and eighteen points, but it’s a single digit raise. With Mike Lee’s significantly under fifty percent and vulnerable. Now the Cavalry is coming in to save Lee. And the big question is, can Evan McMullen continue to raise enough money to be competitive. The Democrats in Utah are kind of supporter, but the national democrats have not been because he’s made it clear he will not caucus with Schumer or McConnell.

He is gonna go the Utah first pure independent way. So the biggest problem McMullen has is raising money. I I’ve given to them. I would encourage others to, and our super pack, we’re we’re we’re get we got some, but we could use more. So Bottom line, the formula there is for a fascinating upset, kinda like Joe Lieberman in his last race, where he became the hybrid candidate.

And and was elected, except in the Lieberman case, it was against the left. On this one, it’s against the Trumpy populist and a flood senator. So check out the website, Evan McMullen, for Senate, and watch this one because it’s you know, Utah has always been the most sort of hostile state of the base Republican states toward Trump. You know, Romney’s been a courageous leader on it when McMullen ran for president as an independent, nobody heard of. You pulled about twenty percent of the vote there.

So to their credit, the Utah electorate is kinda on to Trump and they’re on to Mike Lee. So we’ll see if Evan can build that Republican independent Democratic rule of law coalition to beat them. I think he’s got a real shot. Yeah. What makes Utah different?

Why is Utah different and say, Wyoming. Is is it the Mormon card? The Mormon card. Oh, there is an LDS

factor. I’ve worked in Utah politics before, and anybody who has it it is an impressive culture they have in the LDS. They they have a social welfare system through the church. They take their value seriously. And they’re onto Trump, you know, I think they are, but they’re also conservatives, you know.

So it’s it’s tough. They want the right of center policy, but the personal character flaws. They’re they’re not blind to them. So it it’s always left Trump vulnerable there. I’m not a student of

this, but it’s fascinating to watch how the Mormons have not gone the way of other white evangelical churches in in accepting in accepting Donald Trump. Through

their credit. One last

question is we’re talking about the midterms. I I think it’s pretty clear that the that the pollsters had a major miss in twenty sixteen. But also in twenty eighteen and then again in twenty twenty in in many races. So give me your sense on the the difficulty and the you know, how you as a professional look at polling right now? Because I I think that a lot of people have experienced that whole thing of, you know, thinking that the election was gonna be going one way and then having the trauma of election.

And I have professional pollsters fix their problem? Well, it it

is hard in our modern society to poll. I mean, the big problem is most people use polling to try to be the amazing crescan and predict the future. You know, I like to joke that if I woke up one day and I was head of the People’s Republic of China’s Intelligence Service, I would immediately grab the budget and spend about twenty million dollars quietly bribing pollsters. Because whatever the polls rattling around DC is totally sets a conventional whiz because people look at the polls and they predict the future and they start to calculate. And the herd, as you said before, starts to try in a given direction.

What we use polling and campaigns for is more to get inside what voters are looking for and what new information we can get to them to try to change their opinions. Polling is John Engler, my great old client, former governor of Michigan. It was always behind in at least his first phrase and would scoff at me and say, you know, Mike, so we we just spent thirty thousand dollars to find out what people thought about last week. I’m I’m in the next week business. And and sure enough he came from twenty two down to three terms of governor in Michigan.

So people used polling as a psychological crutch to feel either better or worse about what they think is gonna happen. So the the the challenge of polling is, in the old days, they go door to door, and it worked great. It was incredibly expensive. Then telephone polling was invented and, you know, doctor Gallip calling people would stand up as like a call from the present. There was one poll that had a big brand or Harris or a couple.

Then It became harder and harder with cell phones and active lives to get a normal person to sit on the phone for eighteen minutes and take a phone survey. So they started calling cell phones, which is problematical. Increasingly, now polling is done with what’s called multimodal interviewing. Which is some people get a landline call. They tend to be older and poorer that can skew your sample.

Other people get a cell phone call and a lot of people get a text and they click it and they do an online survey. Some people are part of panels where they’re paid a certain amount of money to agree to do a couple of online polls. So you have this mishmash and it goes into a big statistical machine that weights and balances it to try to reflect the likely there’s some guess work, particularly in the off year election led loan in a primary, what the electorate looks like. The statistical science underneath it is very strong. But getting the right sample frame and asking questions that are smart is the hard part.

So polling is still pretty good, but Don’t use the horse race always to predict the future. It’s a lot of the attitudinal questions inside the poll that are most useful. Yet by the media, they’re most nort. And finally, I went on my bugaboo, and I think a lot of posters feel this way. I’m not a poster, but I I purchased, consumed, and analyzed a lot of polls.

Poles are one of the few cases where the media will create a story by doing their own poll and then report on it. And the problem is publishers are cheap, So a lot of media polling is really poorly done. But of course media eagles get involved, oh, our daily racing form poll is the greatest because old Charlie’s always done it. And well, not not really so true. So a lot of distortions, a lot of overthink, and a lot of attempt to use it as a therapy animal, and really it’s a of kind of backwards looking analysis.

And I think

that that’s something that that people need to keep in mind. You know, and again, this driving of the conventional wisdom is also, you know, just watch it is is interesting, especially when you will poll, for example, a national audience, when in fact the Congressional elections will be decided district by district. They will be decided in just by the swing districts. Control the senate will not be decided by voters in New York or California. And you need to disaggregate how is this issue playing out in Abigail’s Spanberger’s district?

How is it playing out in Utah? Not what is the top line generic national number tell you? Right.

That party generic number is a bit misleading. Yeah. It’s being analyzed now like the eleventh commandment, which is a mistake. You’re right. There are local factors.

There’s some There’s a congressional district where somebody’s building a bypass through the most popular elementary school, and that’s a big thing in that half of the district. You know? There there are always our local stuff, though. It is true that the congressional races tend to move as a wave. These senate races because senate candidates become more famous and can build their own brands can be a little detached, like even a wave may not be enough for dark eyes who’s been such a ASTER.

And then finally, the governor races tend to have a lot of their own branding and are even more detached from the the federal stuff. Because the federal stuff ultimately people think they have to vote for one team or another, which is why Biden’s numbers are so important and congressional and and senators. Whereas governors actually have to do something. So you mentioned Georgia before that the fact

that Hershel Walker, who may be the worst senate candidate ever, is still in the race. But you might actually have a split decision possibly in Georgia. Because, I mean, I see the New York Times reporting this morning that the Democrats are pretty pessimistic now about Stacey Abrams’ chances of beating governor Brian Kemp, or could Kemp position himself reasonably well? So, you know, are there going to be in in, say, in, say, in like Georgia? Voters who vote for Republican brain camp and then vote for Democrat Rafael Warnerque, when

does that happen? You know, it used to have more tickets, but it used to be a big thing. It’s declined in our more tribal era. But there it can still happen. And in the polling now, there is an instance of that in Georgia.

I mean, Florida state’s the Abrams. She was, you know, queen of the universe and then made the not smart decision to run-in what was obviously gonna be a challenging year. For governor against the Detroit opponent. The truth is if she hadn’t run, she could have been organizing, the media would have given her credit Wornock survives, which I not at all sure he will. And then she could have been incredible in our new era of who cares about credentials.

Presidential candidate. Now she’s gonna be a two time loser and fade away because I think her odds of winning are not great. And I think that the Times finally caught up to that story, which has been discussed in political circles for quite a while. So will there be some I think so, you know, it If Walker continues to be as bad, and if Biden’s economic numbers can inch up a little, you will see some voters in the Republican suburbs, college educated, higher income, Republican Caucasian. You’ll you’ll see some peeling off that are definitely gonna vote for Kemp and may cross over in AlarmNet.

But it’s not gonna be huge. We’re we’re in a a a crucible politics now that is unforgiving to that kind of, in my view, thoughtful voting. Well,

and that’s that’s why you say in Georgia and in Wisconsin, these elections are really on on the razor’s edge, which means they’re they will be decided by a very very small number of actual swing voters, and you and I both know that there are swing voters. But, you know, among the hyperparticin, there there seems to be this this new orthodoxy that there are no persuadable voters. All you should care about is your own base where — Right. — Georgia and in Wisconsin, yes, it it turned out’s going to be massively important in Dane County and in Milwaukee and in Atlanta and get all of that. But also, there is going to be about three percent of the voters who are very much in play right up to the end.

No, you’re right. That that theory of there, there’s no persuasion that one is

wrong, and two, it’s part of the catalog mentality. Which is we each have a list. And the problem both parties have, which gets them into trouble, is they treat their base voters as swing voters. Yeah. So it’s constant pandering the voters you get for free and you can actually put under some pain.

And I’d add one last thing about Dodge to to throw a contrarian thing in the people. I think the real turnout question will will Dodd motivate younger voters to show up in an off year, which they’d normally don’t do is about young men who are the most pro choice group by the way. You know, the the media has this kind of I’ll I’ll use of the modern term of unconscious sexism. Which is they always assume, well, a portion is a woman’s issue. Young men are the most pro church group.

There is, and they have abysmal turnout statistics and off your election. That there’s a spike there for the Democrats. That in particular could be material. It would be historically rare, but the dobs thing is big and there would be a lot of money and trying to motivate him to vote. Generally, spending money to get non voters to vote is wasted money, but we’re see as one of the interesting and there appears to be some of that in Kansas, which again was a primary.

So a turnout spike in a primary where the base of turnout is low. Is, you know, not the same as a general, but that that’s something to really watch that again is, you know, they’re they’re doing the easy story, which is pro choice women are unhappy. The other the other great contrarian thing, and then I’ll shut up about this, is the group that’s most invisible in American pop culture is pro life women who just don’t exist except the news. One out of seven American citizens is exactly that. You can argue one out of six.

Well, this is why some

of this rhetoric is so counterproductive, you know, about, you know, the if you’re pro life, it’s because you you want to impress women, you know, I I was involved in the pro life movement for years, and the pro life movement has always been dominated by women. So, I mean, there is that hey. So we’ve gone to the end of the podcast. And as an indication of just how full the pattern is we have not commented on the fact that Steve Bannon is about to do another perk walk today. Oh, I love

it. I was gonna

surrender. Hey, I hate to see it. Right? He’s expected to surrender to state prosecutors tomorrow to face a new criminal indictment. Weeks after he was convicted of contempt of congress and illegal years after we received a pardon from president Donald Trump in a federal fraud case.

So it sounds like it’s going to be, you know, based on the the federal case for which Bannon was pardoned for defrauding the rubs to get them to contribute money for a private twenty five million dollar. We build the wall campaign, something like that. No. I I thought he had a charity

called the what was it? Christians against secular humanism, make her check payable to cash. But that might have been an old pet, Robertson’s scam that he lifted. No. I, you know, I made a couple of pledges in the Trump era One was I just wasn’t gonna give mental space to Steve Bannon.

Two, I’d never set foot in the Trump hotel, you know, and I got a couple more. So I I haven’t really filed it in tail, but I’m sure he did it. Exactly. Whatever it is, I’m sure he’s probably guilty. Well, of course, he did it.

The question

is whether he’s ever gonna be held accountable for it, and of course, how many shirts he will wear when he shows up for his arraignment. Mike Murphy, thank you so much for joining me. Of course, Mike is co director of the USC Center for the Political Future and cohost of the podcast hacks on tap. Thanks so much. Thank you.

Thank you.

It was great, Charlie.

The Bulwark podcast is produced by Katie Cooper with audio production by Jonathan Seres. I’m Charlie Sykes. Thank you for listening to today’s Bulwark podcast. We’ll be back tomorrow. Do

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