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The GOP Chose Not to Stop Trump

January 16, 2024
Notes
Transcript
The gang breaks down Donald Trump’s big win and Iowa, as well as what’s next comes next for the other candidates in the primary. One thing’s for sure, Republicans in the Senate had their chance to impeach Trump and destroy his chances at a comeback, but here we are.

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This transcript was generated automatically and may contain errors and omissions. Ironically, the transcription service has particular problems with the word “bulwark,” so you may see it mangled as “Bullard,” “Boulart,” or even “bull word.” Enjoy!
  • Speaker 1
    0:00:05

    Hello, everyone. Welcome to the next level. I’m Jay DL here with my best friends. Sarah Longwell and Tim Miller of the Bulwark, Iowa is done. It’s in the books, and we had low turnout, hundred ten thousand Iowans braving the frigid cold, Donald j Trump, fifty one percent, god’s fighter, Ron DeSantis, with a very strong twenty one point two percent holding Trump underneath the mythical magical thirty point victory mark.
  • Speaker 1
    0:00:39

    Very, very important going forward. Nikki Haley, who supposedly had a lot of momentum in a disappointing third at nineteen percent, let’s just start with
  • Speaker 2
    0:00:49

    some Twelve hundred votes less than Ron. Just a strong second.
  • Speaker 1
    0:00:55

    Let’s Let’s just talk with some big picture stuff, right right here. Sarah, what did you take away from all this?
  • Speaker 3
    0:01:02

    And Ron DeSantis came out and said he got his ticket punched out of eye Well. Yeah. Something got punched. I’m not sure it was his ticket. Here’s here’s what I’ll say.
  • Speaker 3
    0:01:12

    You know, I had a good salesman, right, on the focus group pod. Her polling was dead on. Now you may be saying, well, wait, Sarah. She had Nikki in second and Ron DeSantis a little bit lower. But she also made it clear from the crosstab that pointed us out that Nikki’s the enthusiasm level for Nikki was much lower than the other two.
  • Speaker 3
    0:01:32

    And I think that’s exactly what you see when you get a low turnout super, super cold night where Nikki’s people were just like, they’re probably like dems, and, you know, independents were like, I’ll vote if it’s convenient, for somebody other than Trump. But if it’s not convenient, I’m not turning out because I don’t really care. And I think that’s exactly what you got. But, you had both Nicky claiming it’s a two person race, which is very important because it’s different from a two man race. It’s a it’s a race where a woman is the other one.
  • Speaker 1
    0:02:03

    I know why she dragging her woke pronouns into this, Sarah Longwell
  • Speaker 3
    0:02:06

    know. I know. So I think that it’s you know, JBL, I kept thinking this is the worst case scenario for Ron DeSantis based on your theory of the case.
  • Speaker 1
    0:02:16

    It’s the worst case for both of them.
  • Speaker 3
    0:02:18

    But worst case for both of them. Right? It’s like they’re they’re separated by very few votes. Ron DeSantis doesn’t get to claim, like, a real second place that, like, boosts them out but he has to keep going because he technically got second place. And so now he’s gotta limp his way into South Carolina because he’s skipping New Hampshire.
  • Speaker 2
    0:02:35

    Timothy? Jeviol, if you don’t mind, my co host, if you guys don’t mind, would you indulge me before I get before I I think Sarah makes
  • Speaker 1
    0:02:43

    a good
  • Speaker 2
    0:02:44

    point, Sarah. And I’d love to get into the county by county data, and we can
  • Speaker 1
    0:02:47

    do that.
  • Speaker 2
    0:02:48

    But I
  • Speaker 1
    0:02:48

    Should I just buckle my chimp straps sit back
  • Speaker 2
    0:02:51

    and let you go?
  • Speaker 3
    0:02:52

    We indulge you every week. I just well,
  • Speaker 2
    0:02:54

    it’s because you just especially indulge me right now. I just I wanna take it I’m gonna take the lens back quite a bit. And just think about the state of our society right now. Rather than discuss the the county by county results, I’m fucking tired of being right. I’m so just damn tired of us being right.
  • Speaker 1
    0:03:16

    You and me both, Sister.
  • Speaker 2
    0:03:17

    Can the Bulwark be fucking wrong? For once? Can these people prove us wrong one time? I’m just sitting there watching it, and I had to be on TV for four hours last night and had to dissect what happened in Paul County, and we’d just squint and try to come up with what Nikki Haley’s path might be. And it’s, like, Donald fucking Trump won the biggest blowout in Iowa cock his history.
  • Speaker 2
    0:03:44

    It wasn’t even close. These people didn’t need they didn’t even try to campaign against him. And, like, they have no plan to to campaign against him. Like, we are living through a permanent permanent, like, why can’t we humor him for a few more days? Like, we’re like Sisyphus living in a decades long, we’re gonna humor him for a few more weeks until we see what’s going on, quote.
  • Speaker 2
    0:04:09

    Like, none of these fucking p I will did one person message either of you last night to say, you know what? You guys You’ve been right about this party. It’s time for me to move on. Not one person messaged me. None of my former Republican colleagues.
  • Speaker 2
    0:04:25

    None of the, you know, commentators or pundits that argue with me on Twitter. Nobody has been like you guys were right. It’s just time to pack it in. I could it’s just, like, you saw something that I didn’t see about this party. No.
  • Speaker 2
    0:04:38

    Like, they’re they’re all going on as business as usual. More capital in West Virginia endorsing Donald Trump this morning. Marco, Joanier, and it’s Charlie Sykes about this this morning. It’s like, like, this party is a cult of a madman that tried to end the democracy And, like, everybody is just acting like, well, another Iowa caucus. Let’s analyze.
  • Speaker 2
    0:04:59

    Let’s let’s take a look at the second of the race for second place. It’s like, what? You know, I it felt like I I said this on two guys. I felt like this is a like, we’re in Belarus and, like, they put up Lukashenko again for his election. And then they’ve put out a couple puppet candidates to run against him.
  • Speaker 2
    0:05:17

    And then the people in fucking Belarus have to be like, Yay. The great look ofhenko has won another victory. It’s like, what the fuck are we doing? What the fuck are any of these people doing? How can you be in this party still?
  • Speaker 2
    0:05:32

    How can you not just acknowledge what has happened? No. None of them are acknowledging it just Oh,
  • Speaker 1
    0:05:37

    New York Times is working on show.
  • Speaker 2
    0:05:39

    Sessing that out. I’m tired of being right. So I I will gladly analyze the results further, but that is my big takeaway. I’m fucking depressed. I’m filled with recriminations, and all of the people who have disappointed me have disappointed me again.
  • Speaker 2
    0:05:53

    So there’s my take. Okay.
  • Speaker 3
    0:05:55

    That’s a good and fair take. I agree with it because I will say the only people contacting me last night were reporters who wanted, like, straight analysis of what we just saw. Right? They don’t wanna hear a rant about how we’ve been saying for many years now that the party is long gone. That everybody will bend the knee because they are callow, cowards who don’t.
  • Speaker 3
    0:06:17

    And and and, you know, all I said there, I was like, did, like, had to figure out how to do Instagram live. You think we’re having technical trouble. You should’ve seen me trying to figure out how to work Instagram last night with Katie Kirk. And, you know, the idea of just trying to do the straight analysis without just sort of screaming at people. This is a crazy person’s party.
  • Speaker 3
    0:06:38

    They want Trump, and also we don’t didn’t have to be here. Like, There was an affirmative choice made by Mitch McConnell and a bunch of senators to let this happen. They could have they could have ended this, and we are here now again because it’s been coward us all the way down at every juncture they think something else is gonna take care of him. Nikki and Ron thought something else was gonna they literally their plan was run for president Hope he dies or goes to jail. Just not a campaign strategy.
  • Speaker 2
    0:07:09

    We can’t run ads against Trump. Don’t listen to the Never Trumpers, the TDS, you’ll turn into Chris Christie. You’ll you’ll get Chris Christie’s results if you actually attack Trump. Well, guess what? You got fucking Chris Christie’s results.
  • Speaker 2
    0:07:22

    You got slaughtered. Congratulations. You have nineteen. He had three. Like, there’s no difference between nineteen and three.
  • Speaker 2
    0:07:30

    The goal is to get into the high forties. To win the nomination. I I and so, like, so, like, all, you know, we have to we have to be fucking lectured. Like, by these by these cowards, who who are getting paid millions of dollars to not campaign against Donald Trump. We have to pretend, like Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis are actually trying to beat him.
  • Speaker 2
    0:07:51

    They’re trying to beat him?
  • Speaker 3
    0:07:52

    Hey. What are what do we think they are trying to do right now?
  • Speaker 1
    0:07:55

    It’s a great
  • Speaker 3
    0:07:55

    Like, what’s the point of Ron DeSantis?
  • Speaker 1
    0:07:57

    Get out. They’re What’s he desperate to get out? It it’s it’s in military terms. They would call this a retrograde, and they are desperate to remove their forces from the field without losing any more political capital. And last night’s result makes that harder for both of them.
  • Speaker 1
    0:08:14

    Right? He’s gotta pretend he’s gonna go to to South Carolina. He’s not going to South Carolina. He’s gonna get five percent in New Hampshire, and then he’s gonna drop out.
  • Speaker 2
    0:08:23

    Niggyny. Twenty fourteen Afghanistan is what you’re saying? Or it’s like we just gotta keep staying in Afghanistan for one more year. Because we don’t wanna have the Joe Biden in twenty twenty one results where I’m falling from planes. That’s what you’re saying?
  • Speaker 2
    0:08:36

    This is not ready to fall from playing yet. This this is the the The
  • Speaker 1
    0:08:41

    thing that I I can’t stop thinking about is that last night as Rhonda Sanders is losing by twenty nine point nine points. His comms director comes out and blames, not Donald Trump, not the voters, But the corporate media for their election interference because the race was called while some people had yet to even caucus their votes. I’m just like, what what are you what are you doing? How You didn’t
  • Speaker 2
    0:09:13

    know I watched that moment with JBL In between my, TV last night, I went to visit my friends at the New York Young Republicans Club. Oh. And I I I spent about an hour over there. Just watching the results come in. Happened.
  • Speaker 2
    0:09:26

    I happened to get there right before. CBS called it for Donald Trump four minutes after the polls closed four minutes. And in this little clubhouse in New York, these these gentlemen were yelling. Trump, trump, trump, trump suck at dissimps. Suck it to SIMPS, and it’s like and the DeSantis people are in Tallahassee.
  • Speaker 2
    0:09:48

    Like, oh, maybe if Maybe if the media would have been a little nicer to us, it’s like, these people don’t like you. They’re an occult of personality. It was not that this it was not like the fact that Fox you know, put your name below Donald Trump’s name on the list that made the difference tonight.
  • Speaker 1
    0:10:05

    But what I’m what I’m trying to point out is that DeSantis is such a pathological. And this is, again, I I said this last night when I was on the show with a b, Donald Trump is Donald Trump. And I’m, like, to say that I’m fine with it isn’t like that I’m fine with it, but, like, it is, you know, it’s like it’s a scorpion, you know, like, you know what they do. Ron DeSantis is out there, And when this scorpion goes and like ends his career, he goes and blames the liberal media for it. Like, he can and that sort of quisling shit, that Vishi Vishi mindset, that’s why democracy is on a knife’s edge.
  • Speaker 1
    0:10:44

    Right? If if the Ron DeSantis of the world, going back to Paul Ryan in, you know, in twenty sixteen, had simply said no. We are we’re willing to, you know, this guy thinks he’s willing to blow up the party. Well, we’re willing to blow up the party too. If they had done that, then none of this would have happened.
  • Speaker 1
    0:11:03

    We wouldn’t be here. And, I that level of cowardice is it’s Wouldn’t
  • Speaker 2
    0:11:11

    got Neil Gorsuch that way. JBL. They wouldn’t have got Neil Gorsuch.
  • Speaker 1
    0:11:15

    Oh, well, I guess that’s right. I guess that’s right. And they wouldn’t have gotten to overturned row, and I’m very sorry. They all hate that they overturned row now anyway, though, and they’re all running away from it. So
  • Speaker 3
    0:11:26

    You know, one thing I didn’t see that besides Ron DeSantis saying he got his ticket punched. I didn’t see any of the DeSantis. What it was that? DeSims?
  • Speaker 2
    0:11:33

    I didn’t
  • Speaker 3
    0:11:34

    see any of the DeSantis stands. Out there cheering for his second place. Like, hit like, unless I’m missing maybe a big hive of of DeSantis folks, Like, the people that I see as having championed him relentlessly for the last six or seven months and screaming at us for not being what big going all in on him. I didn’t see them being, like, great night for DeSantis. Right?
  • Speaker 1
    0:11:57

    Probably poop didn’t say that it was
  • Speaker 2
    0:11:59

    a big win. No? Well, they were all disappointed.
  • Speaker 3
    0:12:02

    Yeah. I don’t know.
  • Speaker 2
    0:12:04

    Yeah. They were all disappointed. Somebody sent me last night.
  • Speaker 3
    0:12:06

    Something different was gonna happen?
  • Speaker 2
    0:12:07

    Oh, yeah. Well, I mean, so he sent me their analysis from Labor Day. If you’re listening to Bullrick, you know what was happening Labor Day, but they’re they sent me a a rundown of the National Review predictions from Labor Day. Charlie Cook said thirty percent chance to win for DeSantis. No.
  • Speaker 2
    0:12:20

    We’re also in thirty five. Maybe forty. Michael Brendan Dorothy, forty five percent. I think forty. For Trump.
  • Speaker 2
    0:12:28

    Wow. Yeah. DeSantis has a higher chance of winning than Trump. So, you know, I mean, I can understand why they might have been disappointed with the results when they looked at it. When they saw that that was their analysis on Labor Day.
  • Speaker 3
    0:12:39

    Eric Garrison guaranteed that Ron was gonna win Iowa.
  • Speaker 2
    0:12:42

    Just delusion. Can we do? Can I can I just can I Iowa nerd out with you on a couple of counties really quick since I did some campaigns
  • Speaker 1
    0:12:49

    in Iowa? In a minute. Let’s do that. Let’s do that after we get a word from our sponsors, Tim.
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    0:12:54

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  • Speaker 2
    0:13:11

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  • Speaker 1
    0:14:11

    No. Tim, what happened in Des Moines?
  • Speaker 2
    0:14:13

    So, you know, Des Moines is I don’t know if you’ve been to Des Moines recently. It was kind of a booming metropolis. You know, you can get an avocado toast there.
  • Speaker 1
    0:14:20

    Love Des Moines.
  • Speaker 2
    0:14:21

    Yeah. One of America’s great news. There’s there’s people with college degrees there. Okay. This is you know, we’re not out in Carroll County where where Vivint got twenty seven percent.
  • Speaker 2
    0:14:32

    Repin Carroll County has stronghold. I we’re in a city. Excuse me, Crawford County. It was Vivek’s stronghold. We’re in a big city here in Des Moines.
  • Speaker 2
    0:14:41

    I wanna I wanna look at the numbers. So this should be it have been Nikki Haley’s strong suit. Trump, Paul County. Trump, thirty eight, DeSantis twenty seven, Nikki finished in third. The next one over, the, the, the, Subvers of Des Moines, Dallas County.
  • Speaker 2
    0:14:58

    Trump thirty nine Haley twenty six. K. Oh, I have it over in Cedar Rapids at Trump forty two. Haley twenty four. Ames, College Town.
  • Speaker 2
    0:15:08

    Trump thirty three. Haley thirty. I mean, he wins ninety eight on a ninety nine County only county Haley wins is where the University of Iowa is, you know, which is like the Bulwark of Iowa, and she wins by one vote there in Johnson County, a single vote. It’s the only county that he loses. Like, you know, this is the the demo, like, part of the realignment discussion that we bad.
  • Speaker 2
    0:15:32

    And maybe Angua was not the best example. We could have maybe seen Haley do a little bit better in Charleston. I don’t fucking know. But, Like, this realignment conversation, like, the people that turned out, you know, that used to be Republicans that switched over to turn out for Pete. And Amy, right, in these suburbs.
  • Speaker 2
    0:15:51

    We all saw this in twenty twenty. How, like, that Dallas County was, like, the prime county I was watching in the Iowa caucus. And you saw a huge surge in turnout It it used to be a Republican county. Big search turn on the Democratic side. Pete did really well there.
  • Speaker 2
    0:16:04

    I forget if he wins or not. And, Like, those people didn’t fucking come back for Nikki Haley? Those people didn’t switch back. You know, like, there are a handful of very online people that did that, but, like, those people are gone. Like, they’ve left the party, and there just aren’t enough of them to to to, like, recreate this coalition.
  • Speaker 2
    0:16:23

    And You know, I was seeing on on social media what, Brad Thorwright on the on the Sunday show a while back. And a good guy. And I well intentioned point, but it’s like, We just need more the turnout was so low. We just need more normies to turn out in these primaries. Like, these normies don’t want this party.
  • Speaker 2
    0:16:40

    That’s just not like a thing. It that’s happened. Like, it’s oh, you can’t just have Trump be president for eight years and be or, excuse me, trump be president for four years and then be the leader of a party for another years and have this party be a cult to a madman and then be like, oh, Normies are gonna wanna come back. Like, like, that’s just not how regular voters work. And so the people that are opting into this is a smaller number of people.
  • Speaker 2
    0:17:01

    It’s the lowest turnout since. Two thousand. But, like, They’re they’re they’re in for Trump. Trump wins Polk County in a blowout. Sarah Longwell
  • Speaker 3
    0:17:11

    I see two big silver lines. But just to put a finer point on what Tim’s saying, if you add up Trump and Vivache, right? So Vivache gets seven percent. Not he doesn’t win Iowa going away as he promised. But he’s got seven point seven percent of the Iowa, which means There was seven percent of the voters or almost eight percent of the voters that just wanted somebody who all they talked about was how great Trump is.
  • Speaker 3
    0:17:39

    Right? Not really just but wasn’t Trump. Right? So that’s nearly sixty percent of the party. Now you say That sounds like bad news.
  • Speaker 3
    0:17:48

    And it is for the country. But the one place where I think for me, this ends the ability We have been fighting. To to Tim’s point about how right where we’ve been fighting against a Republican party and really a pundit class, especially sort of the old conservative. Class that constantly wants to tell us that the party is still normal. Right?
  • Speaker 3
    0:18:10

    That there’s sort of like a normal party to be founded.
  • Speaker 1
    0:18:13

    Oh, yeah.
  • Speaker 3
    0:18:14

    But if you add and, like, forget Ron DeSantis. Let’s just it’s not true, but let’s just assume those are normal people. And, like, it’s just trump and vape. That’s still a full sixty percent of primary voters in one. Okay.
  • Speaker 3
    0:18:25

    And then you throw DeSantis on top of it, and you’ve got eighty percent of the party that It’s like six week abortion bands and just talking about whoa, so Nikki Haley represents. She get nineteen percent. And of that nineteen percent, half of those people will vote. This is the second silver lining. Half of those people will vote for Joe Biden.
  • Speaker 3
    0:18:48

    Now, and we gotta go get the other half too. But that’s this version of Nikki Haley. Not even the normal version of Nikki Haley. This weirdo version who won’t attack Trump and sounds like talks about kicking people with their heels and all the other nonsense. And so I do think that And tell me if you think I’m wrong because, this may be too optimistic, but I do think the moment, like, Nikki Haley got into this primary because she misunderstands the Republican electorate.
  • Speaker 3
    0:19:17

    Mike Pence got into this primary got into this primary because he doesn’t understand what’s happened to the Republican Party. It is very difficult, I think, after this primary to look and not understand any further. Right? You have to admit. I maybe not, but I just don’t see how you could live in a world where it’s like, oh, there’s a post Trump party that’s coming back.
  • Speaker 3
    0:19:40

    No. There’s not. It’s changed forever. It’s going in this direction. Nikki Haley, doesn’t have a chance even if she wins New Hampshire, I hope she does.
  • Speaker 3
    0:19:50

    Because the party doesn’t want this. Sixty percent wanted some combination of Trump and Vivic.
  • Speaker 1
    0:19:55

    So I can’t speak to the actual Republican types, because I think Chris Christie might endorse Joe Biden. I think there are some other Republicans at the very margins who might endorse Joe Biden. But at the at the elite levels. So the pundit class, the conservative media, etcetera, I don’t think we’re gonna see a single person, not one of them. Say, Oh, yeah.
  • Speaker 1
    0:20:25

    I was wrong. It turns out the Republican Party I keep saying there was gone. I gotta, I’m peace out. That’s that is simply not going to happen. And it doesn’t this is the the crazy part of it.
  • Speaker 1
    0:20:36

    Right? The the the Wall Street Journal today, the Wall Street Journal says it looks at the results from Iowa and they says, New Hampshire voters will want to look very carefully at the numbers from Iowa to determine whether or not they think Donald Trump is still the best standard bearer for their party with the best chance to win in November. It’s like, give me a fucking break. Are you like, who is the Wall Street Journal talking to? Nobody’s listening to you, but they’re not gonna say, Oh, jeez.
  • Speaker 1
    0:21:07

    Turns out these people are all nuts. They they’re not gonna do that. None of them are gonna do this. Nobody at National Review is gonna go, oh, jeez. I guess, I guess the party I guess the party of Bill Buckley is gone.
  • Speaker 1
    0:21:19

    They’re not gonna do that. Not not one of them.
  • Speaker 2
    0:21:22

    They’re all due. I how can I decide that they’re gonna break their delusions after tonight? I’ve I mean, after they’ve lived in them for nine years. So I I don’t I have no idea. I don’t have any expectations.
  • Speaker 2
    0:21:30

    They’re gonna break their delusion. We have enough yet another proof point that that our analysis of what is happening is right. And and I think that’s very clear. Just as a fact, because I just did double check, like, Buttigieg’s ended up winning that Dallas County, like, thirty five points or, excuse me, with thirty five percent. But, like, that that’s just Like, when when Trump is winning college educated, and I and I think there’s some people that have legit concerns about the entrance polls and and, you know, it’s they they seem to skewed in various ways, and entrance polls are, you know, not not the most reliable.
  • Speaker 2
    0:22:00

    But you don’t need to look at the entrance polls to see Trump and college educated voters. You just need to look at the county by county results. Like, he won every he won the college counties. Like, he he won the county counties where there are colleges. And he had anyone to mourn.
  • Speaker 2
    0:22:13

    In a blunt, I can hit, like, his Des Moines in Victor, if the entire state was Des Moines, okay? The I I I I’m sorry to just to to obsess over this. But I I just think it’s more than understand the state of the party and the state of where they are in the out caucus. If the entire state was Des Moines, if there was no rural Iowa, If it was not an e the most evangelical state, Trump still would have had the largest victory in Iowa caucus history in Paul if Polk County Iowa was the entire state. Know, and then he ends up winning, and then he gets bashar assad numbers and others and other counties, like, which is why he ends up at thirty points.
  • Speaker 2
    0:22:43

    I agree. But he still would have won with thirteen points. That the whole state was Des Moines. So, like, where is the now? And, you know, he can say it.
  • Speaker 1
    0:22:50

    Would have been the largest margin of victory in the history of the republican Iowa caucus. That’s the other thing to understand. Right? Like, this is when you say he sold a one by thirteen, it’s not like thirteen is an average, like, that’s a thing that just happens. Right?
  • Speaker 1
    0:23:03

    George w Bush. One in the biggest blowout in the history of the Republican Iowa caucus by twelve point four percent.
  • Speaker 3
    0:23:09

    Yeah. I see people arguing on Twitter. Well, look forty percent, you know, or, you know, trump forty nine percent wanted somebody else. He’s not that strong. He’s weak.
  • Speaker 3
    0:23:19

    It’s like, what? Just they’re like, he’s he’s like an incumbent and he just this whatever. The analysis I’m seeing is insane. And, hey, does anybody have in front of them the polling numbers in New Hampshire? Like, what was Vivake getting in New Hampshire?
  • Speaker 3
    0:23:36

    Cause I just need to throw out also something that we’ve talked before, but it’s important to remember that in this case consolidation helps trump. And so if Vivay had his seven percent. Right? So Christy got out, that’s gonna help although I do think some percentage. Vivint is five in
  • Speaker 2
    0:23:52

    New Hampshire.
  • Speaker 3
    0:23:53

    Is it five?
  • Speaker 1
    0:23:54

    Yeah.
  • Speaker 3
    0:23:55

    And then DeSantis is also at five, I believe. Six six. Okay. Well, but so DeSantis is skipping. I don’t know.
  • Speaker 3
    0:24:04

    I’m just I think that this helps trump in New Hampshire.
  • Speaker 1
    0:24:06

    Well, winning by thirty in Iowa helps trump in
  • Speaker 2
    0:24:08

    New Hampshire. You know, we can we can have plenty of time. She can win the answer. But, you know, I I just think that, like, you know, the the path to victory in a Republican caucus is not by this really crushing it with undeclared North eastern yankees.
  • Speaker 1
    0:24:24

    Great. That’s me.
  • Speaker 2
    0:24:25

    So it’s kinda like, okay. Great.
  • Speaker 1
    0:24:27

    Can you guys tell me about the Trump victory speech last night? Because I, I I missed it. Okay. Somehow, I was the reason is because I was watching the Eagles in the worst playoff performance probably in twenty years. So I was watching Nick Seriani’s last game’s head coach of the Philadelphia Eagles instead of the Trump victory speech.
  • Speaker 1
    0:24:43

    How how did it go?
  • Speaker 3
    0:24:45

    Somebody gave him a sedative right before he went on. And he did this super weird, low energy. He thanked everybody in his family. And sounded normal. But
  • Speaker 1
    0:24:58

    Including Tiffany? No.
  • Speaker 3
    0:25:00

    He mostly focused on his two sons.
  • Speaker 2
    0:25:03

    Baron though.
  • Speaker 3
    0:25:03

    He was point five.
  • Speaker 1
    0:25:05

    He has three sons.
  • Speaker 2
    0:25:06

    Baron for more more affectionately than I’ve ever heard him talk about Baron. Okay. Which is interesting. Yeah.
  • Speaker 3
    0:25:13

    Trunk here’s the thing that I think it showed me, which is that trunk really wants to win, and the other two don’t. Like, Trump, they got out there fast. They made sure that, I mean, he was just flanked by everybody. He did a big congratulations to I didn’t realize this, but I guess the Secret Podcast state in Iowa, despite the fact that a lot of other folks in Iowa like Kim Reynolds, because I thought he was gonna slam Kim Reynolds. Because he kinda did this long, meandering thing.
  • Speaker 3
    0:25:41

    But what he was doing was singling out, the secretary of state, this this woman. He was like, she’s gonna be governor someday. And she comes and hugs him. And you were just watching in real time. Trump’s saying I’m gonna destroy the political careers of the people who oppose me, and I’m gonna make the political careers of those people who endorsed me early.
  • Speaker 3
    0:26:02

    And it was a signal to everybody else, get on the bus, do it now, or you won’t be forgiven for it.
  • Speaker 2
    0:26:09

    All that is right. I’d add one point about the speech last night. Very low energy speech. But he does he does have long thank you. Thanks everybody for like twenty minutes.
  • Speaker 2
    0:26:19

    Literally. CNN cuts out before he gets to the meat of the speech. So extremely strange. I mean, like, think about Obama’s o eight Iowa caucus victory speech as the, you know, yes, we can. Right?
  • Speaker 2
    0:26:32

    Like, our you know, any of the past kind of optimistic speeches that you would see from somebody winning one of these early states. Like, he just kind of rambles for twenty minutes. CNN cuts out I had to switch over to Fox, to see him, because m s n b c didn’t even show him as it’s sort of out of Fox to see, like, the actual substance of the speech. Now you get to the substance of the speech, and also subdued for Trump. Also, mindful of strategic, you know, trying to win for trump like Sarah says.
  • Speaker 2
    0:27:01

    But if you just again step back. During the speech, he talks about how great it was at the Iowa caucus voters, according to the entrance polls, recognize that Joe Biden is an illegitimate president. Talks about that for a while. At talks about the need to have more a big the biggest deportation in the history of the country. And then he invites the man in the brick suit onto the stage.
  • Speaker 2
    0:27:25

    Brick man? Do you know brick man?
  • Speaker 1
    0:27:28

    Yeah. The wall guy.
  • Speaker 2
    0:27:29

    Yeah. Me and Brick go way back. We got to hang out with him at a few c packs. He wears a suit made of bricks or or the bricks drawn on them. He gets called up onto the stage, you know, and and Trump acknowledges him.
  • Speaker 2
    0:27:43

    And, you know, the he waives, says, thank you to mister Trump and Lee’s. And then, you know, I watched that end and I kinda flip around. On Fox, you know, they called the speech. Gracious. Two people said gracious.
  • Speaker 2
    0:27:56

    CNN, a lot of subdued, restrained, gracious. And I I guess I guess that’s I I could see why they would say that. But, you know, I just I do like to do the counterfactuals in these sort of situations. You know, like, had Joe Biden done a speech? Where he litigated whether or not he really plagiarized that document for that speech from Neil Kinock in nineteen eighty eight.
  • Speaker 2
    0:28:20

    And how that was not true. And then he, like, invited, a person in a, like, from the river to the sea suit up on stage. To acknowledge them for their support. I I I don’t I don’t think that the CNN commentary afterwards from the stage would have been A very subdued and gracious president Biden, you know, show show showing that he’s pivoting to the general election. So, you know, we do he does get graded on the biggest curve in history.
  • Speaker 1
    0:28:51

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  • Speaker 2
    0:28:59

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  • Speaker 2
    0:29:33

    I gotta tell you when we got our packages, to loose, just went through all of them. It was hard for her to pick a favorite. I think it was probably coca She she is delicious. She’s not watching her carbs. She is not watching her carbs.
  • Speaker 2
    0:29:48

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  • Speaker 2
    0:30:22

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  • Speaker 1
    0:30:26

    Alright. So, I have a lot of trouble seeing the silver lining. So our colleague Mona Charen has an excellent piece up on the bulwark dot com today. If you’re a YouTube watcher of the show or a podcast listener of the show and you’re not not taking in our print offerings, you should remedy that. Go to the bulwark dot com and read Mona.
  • Speaker 1
    0:30:48

    And, she does a a brief on what you you mentioned briefly, Sarah, that, if you look at the entrance polls, there are a bunch of Haley voters who say that if Trump not the if Trump’s the nominee, they’re gonna vote for Biden. And, Mona says that’s good news. Tim, as you said, a bunch of those college educated Republican voters who didn’t show up for highlights because they’re gone. Like, they’re just not Republicans anymore. They’re Democrats.
  • Speaker 1
    0:31:15

    And yet, I am sorry, but the national polling, and and people just tell me like, oh, the national polling numbers don’t matter. I think they matter. The national polling shows Trump with a a very real lead over Biden. And Biden doesn’t have to win by one. Biden has to win by at least three.
  • Speaker 1
    0:31:35

    I just I look at the world around us. And I don’t understand it in some ways. Like, in in some ways, I understand it very well. Like, I understand the Republican Party very well. I don’t know that I understand America.
  • Speaker 1
    0:31:47

    And, I just look at this stuff going forward, and I think to myself, okay, so there there aren’t enough normie voters to stop Trump and the Republican Party. What if there aren’t enough normie voters in America? Stop trump period. Sarah, I know you’re you’re on the optimistic side of this. And you think like, you know, we can build a coalition, but it shouldn’t be this hard.
  • Speaker 1
    0:32:09

    Right? It shouldn’t be this hard to to stop a guy who, like, does his rage tweet You know, what do you do? Forty tweets in a day or something? The
  • Speaker 2
    0:32:17

    About jeez.
  • Speaker 1
    0:32:17

    It is an madman. Like, it shouldn’t be hard.
  • Speaker 3
    0:32:20

    Yeah. Yeah. First of all, we know that there are enough. We know that they’re enough because he won last time. But he won narrowly, in six states, but he won six states.
  • Speaker 3
    0:32:33

    And so the question is is how do you deal with there’s gonna be two challenges? Like there are in any election, which is making sure that a bunch of those people were right leaning kinda into did soft GOP voters who were sick of Trump. Those people, there’s gonna be this big group. We can call them double doubters, double haters, approx on both their houses, like, whatever.
  • Speaker 2
    0:32:54

    Oh, yeah.
  • Speaker 3
    0:32:54

    There are people who hate them both. A pox on both their houses. K. Those people are gonna have to remember that they hate trump more than Biden. And right now, because Biden is the president and because people are seeing more of Biden even as we we see Trump.
  • Speaker 3
    0:33:13

    We see trump bleeding on truth social and being an insane person. Average voters do not. And I gotta tell you I’ve said this before, but the fact that voters still have not dropped that we have a Joe Biden Donald Trump face off. Again, right? They don’t want it.
  • Speaker 3
    0:33:29

    They still think there’s some way around it. But once you’re one on one, k? Trump has won the primaries. It’s clear that Biden’s campaigning. You’re gonna get back into contrast territory.
  • Speaker 3
    0:33:39

    Trump will also be more front and center, more present in people’s minds. And he’s gonna say, this is what the this is why the subdued speech is interesting because for Trump to lose Right? One of the things you need is insane Trump. Right? You need remember when he did the debate with Biden the first one where he tried to give him COVID, and he was just a rageaholic lunatic, just whatever.
  • Speaker 3
    0:34:04

    The number of normies that that that watched that debate went, mm-mm, no. And his mishandling of COVID, whatever. The point is is that you gotta hold that coalition together, and then you can’t lose turnout from young people, from people who don’t normally vote in, who, like, basically only turn out in presidential elections. And so but those people also hate trump. Like, if there’s one thing that has fueled turnout, has healed or at least papered over, not healed, but papered over the rips, the deep rips within the Democratic party.
  • Speaker 3
    0:34:38

    It is hatred of Donald Trump. It’s the one thing they can all agree on. And so I just I think you you had a piece about this about how this is the low watermark for Biden and the high watermark for Trump. I really agree with that. I think we are in a space.
  • Speaker 3
    0:34:51

    I’m I’m nervous about it. Don’t get me wrong. I am nervous. Most nervous about a contrast where Donald Trump looks Like, he has more vigor and, like, is in better shape than Joe Biden? Like, I’m not sure that that isn’t actually what happens and that Trump figures out how to be just like I’m gonna be normal.
  • Speaker 3
    0:35:11

    It didn’t public. It didn’t like, I’m gonna try harder to and I’ll be his version of normal. Right? He’s still gonna talk about shooting migrants and poisoning the blood, but, like, maybe I don’t know. Like, maybe he tones it down twenty five percent, which is just enough to get enough normies on board, over the economy, which is like their big concern.
  • Speaker 3
    0:35:33

    Anyway, My point is is I still think there’s room to put that cold that anti trump coalition back together. I’m not pessimistic about it. I’m optimistic about it, but I am nervous.
  • Speaker 1
    0:35:45

    Jim?
  • Speaker 2
    0:35:46

    I have two thoughts on this. Just circling back to the top thought of from the podcast very briefly. I am despairing and filled with rage that we are at this point and that we even have to have this discussion. Yeah. And, like, that this is what we are.
  • Speaker 2
    0:35:59

    I just I can’t I I do not want that to be overshadowed by my analytical takes on what happened because, like, if on the night of January sixth, you told, like, I was able to take a video, like, my iPad from the future and show Donald Trump with brick man, expecting accepting the Iowa caucuses as victory in twenty twenty four and show it to fucking Marco Rubio and Mitch McConnell and deal, like, and Joanie earned and all these fucking people and my my old friends and be like, you guys will be four of this? Like, you guys will be four of this? Like, they would have said no way. Come on, man. I always said, no.
  • Speaker 2
    0:36:35

    You will be for this. He will come back again. You will be for it, and we knew you better than you knew you, and it fucking pisses me off. Okay. Putting that aside.
  • Speaker 2
    0:36:44

    I think there were some silver linings. The low turn I I know it snowed, and it was cold and stuff, but, like, the turnout was bad. Throughoutout was bad. It was fifty something thousand less than twenty sixteen.
  • Speaker 3
    0:36:57

    Fifty six thousand.
  • Speaker 2
    0:36:59

    Yeah. And think about all the new people Trump has brought into the party. You know, we like to obsessed with people who have left, but Trump has, like, since, like, twenty sixteen, I was the first contest. So a lot of these, like, casuals who ended up getting on board, getting very excited for Trump. They came in later.
  • Speaker 2
    0:37:14

    Right? So so a bunch of new people come in at the party, since the since the first contest of twenty sixteen, still a huge drop in turnout. So I I I think that there is maybe some warning sign there. A lot of discussion about the work that Joe Biden concerns with the bet with his base. You know, maybe the enthusiasm isn’t quite there.
  • Speaker 2
    0:37:34

    I, you know, they’re the super fans are there. But that next layer of people may maybe they’re just not that fucking excited about the Trump show anymore. I I’m open to that possibility. When I predict, I just think that’s something to monitor. First contest.
  • Speaker 2
    0:37:46

    And then I think that the the entrance poll data, the degree of the disdain for Donald Trump among the Nikki Haley voters, was pretty notable. You know, it was pretty notable in the numbers. Like, I you you’re looking at some things like thirty percent and some of the entrance polls saying they wouldn’t vote for him if he was convicted. Obviously, that’s conditional, but eleven percent in the last NBC poll, you know, saying that they wouldn’t vote for him. I a a pretty significant chunk of people, I think, who’ve been diluting them into thinking Nikki Haley might win this primary.
  • Speaker 2
    0:38:21

    And and, you know, our our answer giving not giving pollsters undecided on the answer might start answering Biden in the next month. So I I I think those are two real silver linings and and real things that I would be worried about if I was Chris Lasveda, just kind of analyzing this like it was a normal campaign, after last night.
  • Speaker 1
    0:38:41

    Let’s go to New Hampshire.
  • Speaker 2
    0:38:42

    Tim? Well, I I mean, we the I just think it’s worth noting Nikki Haley is now I I is now going to New Hampshire. I don’t think she’s done an event yet. She’s gonna do a first event in the afternoon. It’s kind of a lethargic start to her enhance her primary campaign for somebody that’s entire candidacy rests on it.
  • Speaker 2
    0:38:58

    Such she’s not debating around to Santa’s on Thursday, which I guess is the right call. She’s been
  • Speaker 1
    0:39:02

    pulled out of the debate because we’ve had five great debates. And as she says, she says the next debate she has will be against either Donald Trump or Joe Biden, and she’s looking forward to it. I’m sorry, Nikki. You’re not having another debate.
  • Speaker 2
    0:39:16

    Have another debate. Look, she is going to have another debate. It will be her and Hillary, like, speaking to Goldman Sachs. Or something like that. It’ll be a very it’ll be a closed market debate.
  • Speaker 2
    0:39:29

    And, like, he said, that’ll have that’ll happen for her. Just not Biden or Trump. No.
  • Speaker 3
    0:39:33

    But it’s the right goal. I think, like, she doesn’t need to debate Ron DeSantis. He’s not even doing New Hampshire. She should just do her town halls and she should challenge Trump to come to beat her. Like, I think that that is as these things go, at least something, something to highlight that Trump has refused to debate and isn’t, you know, isn’t showing up.
  • Speaker 3
    0:39:53

    I think that’s good. Why should she debate to Santos again?
  • Speaker 2
    0:39:56

    I agree with that. I guess. I I was pretty torn about this last night because just like, I don’t know. I mean, it’s WMR. There’s only one station in New Hampshire.
  • Speaker 2
    0:40:06

    Should you be on it? Making your case. Should you may maybe take this opportunity to finally criticize Donald Trump, make a little news, I don’t like, what else are you gonna be doing that Thursday night? Does she have a plan? I just I want to speech.
  • Speaker 2
    0:40:19

    And again, I, we we kind of got to this towards the beginning, but, like, to put a finer point on it, like, It’s not clear what they’re doing. Like, I again, it’s it’s it seems that they’re just going along with the Lightning strike strategy still, the hamburger from heaven strategy.
  • Speaker 3
    0:40:32

    Yeah.
  • Speaker 2
    0:40:33

    And it’s like, okay. I mean, might there be something else to do this week besides the hamburger from heaven’s strategy? And and, you know, Maybe not. Maybe that’s not. Maybe, you know, she’ll run through the paces, but I we talked about Trump speech.
  • Speaker 2
    0:40:46

    Her speech on-site was just very, like, normal. Like, it wasn’t she didn’t try to make a new inject a new conversation, inject a new argument. She didn’t she just kinda gave her stump speech, talked about electability. And how Joe Biden and Donald Trump are both old? Okay.
  • Speaker 2
    0:41:03

    But, maybe I again, I don’t I don’t feel strongly about this take, but, like, maybe a debate would have been an opportunity to do that. Probably not given that she’s made no news really in the like, she had one good debate, I guess, at the very beginning that sort of started this. And then since then, it’s been, you know, since then they’ve been pretty meaningless. So so it was gonna be another meaningless debate, then I guess not. But There we are.
  • Speaker 1
    0:41:25

    How long until this is finally over? When do when do Nikki and Santa’s drop out?
  • Speaker 2
    0:41:30

    I think your triad was right. I think Ron DeSantis had catastrophic in Iowa, and I think she’s gonna have catastrophic success in New Hampshire. I don’t like, the new ARG pulled its out today, is it forty forty? I think that’s probably too good. I I I still find it hard that she gets there and wins with Vivec out, but DeSantis in, does that tamp the trump number down enough?
  • Speaker 2
    0:41:50

    To to let her squeak it out. I don’t think it’s a zero percent chance. But I do think that she probably gets close enough to rationalize doing the month, the, a month long baton death march to to South to Bamburg, home to Bamburg, where where she gets put out to pasture.
  • Speaker 3
    0:42:10

    Yeah. I mean, they they can’t I mean, she gets gets crushed in her home home state. Ron DeSantis, he can’t hang in and get crushed in Florida when she will. Like, he’s gotta get out before Florida. She probably tries it in South Carolina and ends there.
  • Speaker 3
    0:42:27

    Right?
  • Speaker 2
    0:42:28

    I think so.
  • Speaker 3
    0:42:29

    Do you think anybody’s getting a super Tuesday?
  • Speaker 1
    0:42:31

    No. So here’s I I think Super Tuesday is the mother of all Maga Riley. I think he is unopposed. He puts on the biggest show of force you could possibly imagine. And that’s the moment at which America looks at this and says, crap.
  • Speaker 1
    0:42:48

    This thing’s really happening. And then we are either yeah. Ace is out. Vivek is out. Yeah.
  • Speaker 2
    0:42:56

    I think that’s right. You don’t know.
  • Speaker 1
    0:42:57

    Get the inversion.
  • Speaker 2
    0:42:59

    Yeah. I’m sorry. So, you know, you just forget the inertia of this. Like, just and and and the bubble that you get in in a campaign, you have the donor bubble. People want you to stay in.
  • Speaker 2
    0:43:07

    You never know what’s gonna happen. Court dates, like, all that. You can rationalize this stuff pretty easily. And I gotta tell you, I just as a closing thing, just as a for a losing election night memory. From a year past.
  • Speaker 2
    0:43:19

    So, and, Jeb, we finished we didn’t even compete in Iowa. We finished fourth in New Hampshire. I don’t even remember when we finished in South Carolina. I think fourth, maybe fifth. And, like, it wasn’t close.
  • Speaker 2
    0:43:29

    It was a horror. Like, he did Harblend in South Carolina. We brought his brother out, and his brother did a big speed. It was like the last big gassed, and it was obvious that he dropout. And yet still, on election night, of sitting back there with him in a room with the campaign manager in the Some other folks that are around him, friends, donors, and like some of them were telling him stay still super Tuesday Like, let’s see what happens in Florida.
  • Speaker 2
    0:43:55

    Keep it, you know, keep it going. And, you know, the campaign manager and I, like, we’re we’re saying you know, it’s just not there. Like, we you should do it. We’ll do it the right way. You you know, we should get, dah, dah, dah, dah, and, you know, he took some private time and and made the right decision, but whose job is a rational human.
  • Speaker 2
    0:44:11

    But, like, you I I saw the dynamic in that room. I guess is what I’m saying of how somebody, especially somebody that wants it and wants an excuse to stay in can rationalize staying in, which is kind of why I think that she stays in to South Carolina.
  • Speaker 1
    0:44:26

    Yeah. The difference is, though, this time, you’re gonna have the entirety of the Conservative Inc. Republican establishment. Pressuring to get out. And we gotta unify.
  • Speaker 1
    0:44:36

    Look, trump is trump is flawed in many ways. We gotta start unifying now. Right? We gotta come together now. I I think that’s gonna be maybe I’m wrong.
  • Speaker 1
    0:44:44

    Maybe maybe those people actually pressure the other way, stay in just in case he, you know, the magic cheeseburger hits.
  • Speaker 2
    0:44:49

    Trump was nice to us. I see you and you if she stays and you get back to bird brain, you get back to birtherism. Right? Like, and so then you gotta deal with all that.
  • Speaker 1
    0:44:56

    Yeah. Alright, guys. This is wonderful. I will see you both in San Francisco in a day or two. And then we’ll do this again next week.
  • Speaker 1
    0:45:05

    With New Hampshire, you know, I feel like nobody really appreciates how we are also on the baton death march through this campaign. Because, you know, in in previous previous cycles, not in twenty sixteen, not in twenty twenty, but in the before times, this was, like, my favorite time of the every four years. I love this. I was out on the road covering presidential campaigns. I was following Hillary Clinton around Iowa, New Hampshire, or following Rick Santorum or John McCain, and, I just hate everything about this timeline that we’re in right now.
  • Speaker 3
    0:45:38

    You know, I keep having the same thought, which is like, not only is this extraordinarily dangerous. Not only are we in some some place in a timeline in which democracy could end, and we could have a president who did a coup and that we affirmative reelection and then never leaves office, not only in all of that at stake, but it’s also boring as hell. And, like, I don’t know how many times we can tell people. Like, we’ve done the rants that we did today. We’ve all we’ve all done them before.
  • Speaker 3
    0:46:06

    They’re cowards. They won’t do it. The only thing, like, here’s the silver linings. It’s just it’s times a flat circle, and we’re gonna have to keep doing this. We are an up a time, death march.
  • Speaker 3
    0:46:16

    We are.
  • Speaker 2
    0:46:16

    He’s the grinch.
  • Speaker 1
    0:46:17

    Well, I’m sure all the bad people are gonna give us credit for having been right for the last seven years. Right, Sarah?
  • Speaker 3
    0:46:23

    That’s right. That’s right. The only thing that this just going back to the silver lining just to end on us lately, I think my hope is that and it goes to this turnout. That Trump is going to preside over a shrinking Republican Party and that I do believe that the tables are gonna turn here in a little bit. We’re gonna get a contrast election the polls are gonna go up for Joe Biden.
  • Speaker 3
    0:46:52

    And as long as we can keep a third party from splitting the anti trump coalition, I don’t know. I might start to talk myself into a buy and blow out.
  • Speaker 2
    0:47:04

    Alright. I planned on that.
  • Speaker 1
    0:47:05

    We’re gonna end on that. Everybody. We’ll see you again next week.
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