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Let’s Brace for 2024 Together!

December 27, 2023
Notes
Transcript
The gang break down their predictions for 2024, including how the GOP primary will end, who will be Trump’s VP pick, and the craziest development that could happen between now and election day.
This transcript was generated automatically and may contain errors and omissions. Ironically, the transcription service has particular problems with the word “bulwark,” so you may see it mangled as “Bullard,” “Boulart,” or even “bull word.” Enjoy!
  • Speaker 1
    0:00:05

    Hello, everyone, and welcome to the Bulwark next level. New Year’s extravaganza edition. I’m doing the hosting this week, Tim Miller, because I’m not feeling extravagan dish. I sick. We were dating this right before Christmas.
  • Speaker 1
    0:00:19

    I had a big week, and I was gonna be alone in my home. You guys have no idea all the plans I had. There was a gay Christmas party. I was gonna I was supposed to have lunch with Carville today. Bulwark and I’m just instead, I’m just drinking tea and moaning in the bed.
  • Speaker 1
    0:00:35

    But I pulled it I pulled it together for you guys. And I’m gonna take the host chair so that you can carry me through this episode as we look back on twenty twenty three and give our twenty twenty four Does that sound nice?
  • Speaker 2
    0:00:46

    Oh my god. JBL, we’re gonna get to talk so much. It’s
  • Speaker 3
    0:00:49

    gonna be limiting. I wanna have Tim thinks that, like, sitting in the host chair is the easy part. That’s okay.
  • Speaker 1
    0:00:54

    It’s not that easy. It’s about it’s not not about, it’s about the number of words per minute. You don’t have a saving the rewards.
  • Speaker 3
    0:01:02

    Because you are strapping it on here, Tim,
  • Speaker 1
    0:01:04

    by
  • Speaker 3
    0:01:04

    which I mean your football helmet. And, it makes me very happy and grateful to you.
  • Speaker 1
    0:01:09

    And I’m just happy to be here with all of you. I’d never leave you guys hanging. Okay. Before we do this, though, Sarah, you’re your group. You have a group.
  • Speaker 1
    0:01:17

    You have a political group. That you do also. You’ve many you’re a woman with many hats, and you even add that you’re running.
  • Speaker 2
    0:01:23

    Yeah. We decided to do, like, a Christmas gift for people.
  • Speaker 1
    0:01:28

    Yeah. It’s what I have on the Hallmark channel.
  • Speaker 2
    0:01:29

    JBL actually.
  • Speaker 1
    0:01:30

    Hallmark channel, I think, is the keyword here. It’s on the Hallmark channel. Is it not?
  • Speaker 2
    0:01:35

    It is indeed. Because it doesn’t matter. It is indeed. So, I got this idea from J. V.
  • Speaker 2
    0:01:40

    All I know his family watches a lot of, like, the Christmas prints I think is the name of a movie. And I just thought, okay, it’s Christmas. What are people gonna watch the most of? And and get them when they’re in kind of like a soft mood. You know?
  • Speaker 2
    0:01:55

    Just like they’re ready to feel joy. And then we hit them hard every every hour on the hour with Trump is a wannabe dictator. This guy’s running again. You guys gotta wake up. Just like Pinochet, he’s talking about shelving the Constitution, you know, we we we show historically, how his trajectory follows other famous dictators.
  • Speaker 2
    0:02:18

    And it’s, you know, it’s burning up the twits right now.
  • Speaker 1
    0:02:21

    Let’s watch it together. Really quick.
  • Speaker 2
    0:02:23

    Let’s watch it together.
  • Speaker 4
    0:02:28

    This isn’t hyperbole. A vote for Donald Trump may mean the last election that you ever get to vote This is an exaggeration.
  • Speaker 2
    0:02:35

    He’s a threat to democracy.
  • Speaker 4
    0:02:37

    This is Donald j Trump. He was the forty fifth president of the United States. He caused an insurrection at the Capitol and to ruin his arrest, but he’s running again. This guy is openly running as a wannabe dictator. Trump said he would terminate the constitution so he could be president again.
  • Speaker 4
    0:02:52

    Do you know who also did that? Mussolini, Chavezoshae, all of them shelved their constitutions to centralize power. Trump is planning to purge tens of thousands of civil servants and replace them with loyalists, authoritarian Victor Orban used the same tactic to dismantle Hungary’s democracy. Donald Trump’s chances of winning are very real. The alarm is going off.
  • Speaker 4
    0:03:13

    Everyone needs to wake up. We have a choice between our democracy or letting Trump destroy it. It’s time to get off the sidelines. We can’t let Donald Trump get close to the Oval Office again.
  • Speaker 1
    0:03:25

    Merry fucking Christmas.
  • Speaker 2
    0:03:28

    It’s gonna be fun for the Hallmark crowd. We’re running it nationally too. We’re also running in the some swing states and, you know, we’re, we’re I it is I am Trump has been doing so much. Talking about the dictator stuff. And I get driven crazy by being the way that he’s taken the conversation around the dictator something, like, leaned into it.
  • Speaker 2
    0:03:52

    Right? Tries to normalize it. That is one of his special skills. And I did feel feel like we’re being lulled into a little bit of a stupor with Trump, and I did, you know, also that’s a Barry Rubin special. I should give
  • Speaker 1
    0:04:04

    you a chance. I like that the ad didn’t include Hitler. I was sitting there as I was watching the first time, I was like, don’t have Hitler. Don’t have Hitler. And you didn’t have
  • Speaker 2
    0:04:10

    his money. So, you know, I had a reporter reach out to say there’s a another dictator I could think of who consolidated power that’s not in this ad. Like, any reason why? And my first response was like, so many dictators. Gotta cut for time, you know.
  • Speaker 2
    0:04:24

    But, like, the truth is is that I think this is my honest thing on Hitler. Obviously, Trump, if you were gonna compare him to Hitler, It is early days Hitler, like, right? But peep because we have a full historical context of Hitler. It doesn’t hit people correctly. It seems like an overwrought comparison.
  • Speaker 2
    0:04:42

    And in fact almost inappropriate considering what you know about what he did. And so I think that’s a distraction. And I decided to ax it because it wasn’t an early draft.
  • Speaker 3
    0:04:54

    In nineteen thirty five, people wouldn’t have believed that Hitler would be That’s right. If you if you had in nineteen thirty five started talking about Hitler as, you know, as if it was nineteen forty five, people would say, what are you talking about? That’s crazy. He’s such a clown.
  • Speaker 2
    0:05:08

    Right. So the I’m not saying that the that the the comparison doesn’t get more apt all the time, especially this week as he talks about, you know, poisoning the blood, but I just think from a persuasion standpoint, it’s not. It would be a mistake.
  • Speaker 1
    0:05:23

    I totally agree. And that was one of my things for twenty twenty three. Looking back, we had the the first next level Sunday shows with Adam Brody, and he was maybe a little bit of a airhead, a lovable airhead that you just wanna kiss. But he had he suggested diary of a man in despair, which was one of the best things I read this year, which was on this point, which kind of followed a somebody through the early Hitler era. Okay.
  • Speaker 1
    0:05:45

    Are we ready? Should we get on with this? Yeah. Let’s do it. I’ve got a list of topics for you too on a some on a couple of them I’ll chime in.
  • Speaker 1
    0:05:51

    When I have a good when I have an answer, it’s better than yours. But if your answers are the best, we’ll just let you take it. Are you ready? Question number one. We’re looking backwards.
  • Speaker 1
    0:05:59

    GBL’s been so negative lately in the tryout. I’ve noticed.
  • Speaker 3
    0:06:03

    Not today, big boy.
  • Speaker 1
    0:06:07

    Last one. There have been there have been several negative tryouts lately. So I wanna look back on twenty twenty three. What’s the best news? What was the thing that brought you the most optimism.
  • Speaker 1
    0:06:17

    What bowie do the most in twenty twenty three?
  • Speaker 3
    0:06:19

    I was
  • Speaker 2
    0:06:20

    thinking about, like, what made us the gittiest together?
  • Speaker 1
    0:06:23

    Great.
  • Speaker 2
    0:06:23

    And it really was the humiliation of the bad guys. So it was Kevin McCarthy, both the many, many rounds of voting for him to get in. And then him being kicked out. That, I think, was just it’s enjoyable to watch people who carried water for Trump, take it on the chin, Giuliani, getting the huge judgment against him. That’s a little bit of recency bias because that just happened.
  • Speaker 2
    0:06:45

    But Giuliani got blown up a little bit this year. And then Ron DeSantis, melting down. Now, obviously, I wanted DeSantis to be a a much better candidate than he was. I wanted him to be somebody who actually could have beaten Trump, but watching him become so trumpy and make this horrible strategic mistake of trying to challenge Trump for the always Trump voters and to base himself frequently in the process watching that turn into a total catastrophe for him did bring a decent amount of satisfaction. I recognize this as a Schadden Freud heavy choice, but that’s the direction I wanted to go.
  • Speaker 2
    0:07:17

    I mean, I could talk about the S and P being up twenty five percent and things like that, but I went for the shop.
  • Speaker 1
    0:07:22

    Bad news for bad people is good. No. That’s nice. Bad news for bad people. That’s true.
  • Speaker 1
    0:07:26

    It was true in twenty twenty two too. So we’re on a nice little run. On that front. Jonathan Victor last.
  • Speaker 3
    0:07:33

    The soft landing. We got a soft landing. You know, all all year long. I was like, you know, yeah, inflation’s coming down. Economic growth, very robust.
  • Speaker 3
    0:07:44

    Wage growth finally passed inflationary growth All the wage growth is led from the bottom, and I think it’s now accepted. I saw Larry Summers who The people who really wanted Biden to fail, they latched on hard to Larry Summers early. Because Summers was so pessimistic about what was going on. So he was their talisman when they went on, like, waving Larry Summers is, you know, prognostications. And Larry Summers just last week said, yeah.
  • Speaker 3
    0:08:16

    No. This has all turned out much better than anybody could possibly have thought that it would And, we we got there. You know, household wealth up thirty seven percent for the median household over three years ago. Things are good. I’m sorry.
  • Speaker 3
    0:08:31

    They just they are. And, that is amazing news because if things were legitimately bad, Like, if we were in the recession, if, unemployment was six percent or seven percent, then we would be heading towards autocracy on a rocket sled. And we’re not. So that’s great.
  • Speaker 2
    0:08:51

    Yeah. It’s more like on a what’s a slower, like, a like a little
  • Speaker 1
    0:08:55

    A robo.
  • Speaker 3
    0:08:55

    A normal sleigh. Some flexible flyer. Right?
  • Speaker 1
    0:08:59

    I thought about JBL today when I was doing some last second shopping. I masked up. Walked in to to very, b line into one store. The only time I’ve left the house all week. And do the shelves, like, half empty?
  • Speaker 1
    0:09:13

    I was thinking about you. And I was like, you could you could spin this either way, you know, either the economy’s going so well that people are taking stuff off the shelves or maybe Joe Biden just didn’t do his job, making sure we had the inventory we need at this Christmas, for our for our last second shoppers.
  • Speaker 2
    0:09:28

    You know, I had a I had an alternate version of this for my happy answer which was that twenty twenty three was actually it’s kind of a rough year, honestly. Like, the economy is is is starting to turn around now. Just hold on. Just hold your face for a second JBO. Economy starting to turn around now.
  • Speaker 2
    0:09:44

    I’m sorry. You may have noticed the horrible war, in Gaza and Israel. And also, you know, Ukraine, has been in this long protracted conflict. Biden’s had very bad polls. But this to me strikes it strikes me as the the the perfect setup for a much better twenty twenty four.
  • Speaker 2
    0:10:06

    Like if you’re gonna have your terrible year, have it this time. And like, hopefully, going into twenty twenty four, we see things improve, in Ukraine. We see, things settle down in Israel. The economy is, you know, voters are lagging indicator. And as it gets back, consumer sentiment starts to come back, I’d like to put the optimistic spin on this and say, twenty twenty three was crappy and twenty twenty four showing all the signs of being a better.
  • Speaker 1
    0:10:31

    That goes against JBL’s nature. All
  • Speaker 2
    0:10:33

    Well, g I know. JBL’s is a good. I say it’s better. Better.
  • Speaker 1
    0:10:37

    JBL doesn’t like the idea that things could improve. You know, he’s always thinking of the worst case scenarios. Yeah. I agree with all that. Twenty twenty three Unfortunately, it was really it was really good to me.
  • Speaker 1
    0:10:47

    It’s kind of it’s kind of tough. I love I’m I’m in New Orleans. Life is good here. So, twenty twenty three has been good to me, and so I’m hoping that I can just send that energy to everybody else into twenty twenty four. Okay.
  • Speaker 1
    0:10:59

    I wanted to have some big think twenty twenty four questions at the end of the podcast, but let’s start with just a little Pundatory. Well, straight politics. Okay. So JBL T’s this on last week’s episode. When do we think Ron DeSantis officially calls it quits?
  • Speaker 1
    0:11:14

    When won’t we have run to kick around anymore?
  • Speaker 3
    0:11:18

    Two days after Iowa. So if Iowa is what is Iowa the fifteenth or the twentieth? It’ll be two days after that. I think he’ll come in third in Iowa probably or a very, very weak second. And He’ll give his speech.
  • Speaker 3
    0:11:33

    He won’t do anything the day after because that looks really desperate, but he’ll do the day after the day after.
  • Speaker 2
    0:11:39

    I also had that that he drops out after coming third in Iowa. I could see a world in which he drops out after coming forth in New Hampshire. Did you wanna see this news story today about how their ground game, which never backed down, so never backed down has now moved the ad buying over to write something, whatever, pack.
  • Speaker 3
    0:11:58

    Fight right.
  • Speaker 2
    0:11:59

    Fight right pack. And they’re just in turn to the ground game, but they hired all these ground folks. And, like, some of them are trump supporters, and, like, are telling people that they’re trump supporters. And, you know, or aren’t very know, enthusiastic. They’re just paid flax that’s, like, not going that well.
  • Speaker 1
    0:12:15

    Pay for play door knockers in a presidential race. Who who would have ever predicted that was
  • Speaker 3
    0:12:20

    a bad idea?
  • Speaker 1
    0:12:20

    I can’t think of anyone.
  • Speaker 3
    0:12:22

    Yeah. So he twists Kim Reynolds’s arm to get her to endorse him Ron, Ron DeSantis. If that doesn’t happen, She doesn’t go out on a limb for him.
  • Speaker 2
    0:12:32

    She already did.
  • Speaker 3
    0:12:33

    No. I’m I’m just saying, wind wind the clock back.
  • Speaker 2
    0:12:35

    Oh, okay.
  • Speaker 1
    0:12:36

    Like, like,
  • Speaker 3
    0:12:36

    in Airfax, where she counterfactual where she doesn’t do that.
  • Speaker 2
    0:12:40

    Mhmm.
  • Speaker 3
    0:12:41

    Does he stay in to to Iowa, or does he get out before the voting? Because I think that is the only thing keeping him in the race right
  • Speaker 2
    0:12:49

    now. That she endorsed him. I don’t know.
  • Speaker 3
    0:12:51

    Yeah. And that he can’t he can’t if he sticks a knife in her like that, then he will not be able to count on anybody else ever supporting him ever again in his life.
  • Speaker 2
    0:13:01

    I always thought he had to run through the tape in Iowa. I’ve never believed he was gonna there was a world in which he dropped out before Iowa.
  • Speaker 1
    0:13:08

    I think you can underestimate the irrational exuberance and optimism sometimes inside campaigns. Of who, you know, you’re going to things. People are showing up. Who knows? You know, like I told you, I was with the Vivic people.
  • Speaker 1
    0:13:18

    They thought they had a chance. I thought he was choking. You know? And so it’s like Ron’s pulling three x more than Vivick. So I I I think that probably they run through the tape.
  • Speaker 1
    0:13:28

    I’ll take the over. If you guys have set the line on two days after Iowa, I think he stays in a little longer than that. Close call either way. Okay. Nikki.
  • Speaker 1
    0:13:36

    Do you
  • Speaker 3
    0:13:37

    think he makes it to New Hampshire?
  • Speaker 1
    0:13:39

    I guess I would just say I I think that I could see how they could convince themselves that it makes sense too. I think you guys picked a good I think you picked a good day. Like, that’s a good, I think, measure, possibly if I had to choose whether he stays in longer or gets out earlier, I’d say he stays in longer.
  • Speaker 2
    0:13:53

    One just last thing on this to status deal. Do we think that right when he drops out? What do you think he does? Does he endorse Trump? No.
  • Speaker 2
    0:14:02

    Oh, really?
  • Speaker 3
    0:14:02

    He waits. I mean, he he will endorse Trump, but I don’t think he endorses trump right away. I think he sees if he can get something for his endorsement.
  • Speaker 2
    0:14:10

    Okay.
  • Speaker 3
    0:14:11

    And then ultimately he finds out that he can’t and he endorses anyway. That’s the most meatball run thing to do.
  • Speaker 1
    0:14:17

    Yeah. He gets browbeat into endorsing him, you know. Why haven’t you endorsed him? All the internet personalities are making fun of him? And and eventually, he, but he endorsed them from the weakest position imaginable.
  • Speaker 1
    0:14:29

    That’d be my guess.
  • Speaker 3
    0:14:30

    His staff, all of the conservatism Inc people that he bought out, like the Laura Loomers of the world, they endorsed Trump first and then he gets dragged dragged into it eventually because he thinks, well, maybe if I play hard to get Donald will make nice with me and, you know, reunite me or blah blah blah. And it it won’t happen.
  • Speaker 2
    0:14:51

    Yeah. You think he’s done? Do you think this is the last we see around the Santos?
  • Speaker 3
    0:14:55

    I mean, until Casey runs. Yes.
  • Speaker 1
    0:14:57

    Yeah. I think I think Scott Walker is a nice future for him. It’s just the Scott Walker model and sending petty tweets from time to time eating ham sandwiches. Okay, Nikki Haley. Does she win one state?
  • Speaker 1
    0:15:13

    Oh, no.
  • Speaker 2
    0:15:14

    I’m gonna give her New Hampshire. I gotta run the Bulwark case on Nikki, for my own. I don’t know, edification, my own needs. I’m gonna give her New Hampshire.
  • Speaker 3
    0:15:24

    I don’t think she wins anything. I think that the momentum is not gonna be because Nikki got a better than expected showing in Iowa. I think it’s gonna be that Trump dominates Iowa, and that gives him momentum going into New Hampshire. Here’s what I think. I think Nikki Haley loses South Sarah Longwell, her home state, by more than thirty five points.
  • Speaker 3
    0:15:46

    That’s what I think is gonna happen. And that’s when she then gets out and immediately endorses Trump day after South Carolina.
  • Speaker 2
    0:15:54

    Gonna hate that.
  • Speaker 1
    0:15:55

    That leads us kind of to the next question, but I would like to, I’d like to show you this is why you keep VCs out of out of politics. You know, this is why you wouldn’t ask me for my opinion on what what startup to invest in, and you shouldn’t ask these guys what they think about politics. Okay. Keith Robois. Has jumped on the Haley bandwagon.
  • Speaker 1
    0:16:15

    He’s one of the Peter teal butt boys. He sent this tweet yesterday. For the record, Haley finishes second in Iowa, wins New Hampshire. Wind South Sarah Longwell, and then Trump is toast. It’s interesting.
  • Speaker 1
    0:16:29

    And he thought that
  • Speaker 2
    0:16:29

    forward from there.
  • Speaker 1
    0:16:30

    Yeah. Then he found that up with a, a chart showing Nikki Haley’s poll numbers going up in New Hampshire. With this is exactly what a successful startup’s KPIs look like.
  • Speaker 3
    0:16:45

    Yay. So capitalism I just capitalism makes sure that the smartest people get the most money.
  • Speaker 2
    0:16:52

    I did see that tweet and I was trying to craft a quote tweet about pulling a JBL where I wanted to bet him like ten thousand dollars against that because that’s like my win win, right? Because if if if it’s comes true, Right? And I lose ten grand, but, like, Nikki Haley is one at Donald Trump.
  • Speaker 3
    0:17:12

    Ten grand. Put a hundred grand on that.
  • Speaker 2
    0:17:15

    Are you kidding in
  • Speaker 3
    0:17:16

    a favor?
  • Speaker 1
    0:17:16

    That you’re creating your interest.
  • Speaker 2
    0:17:18

    I can’t I can’t lose a hundred grand. I can’t lose ten grand. I I but, you know, I was trying to think about something that’s like a big enough number, but, do it like you’re
  • Speaker 3
    0:17:26

    doing street racing. You run for pink slips. I’ll sign the deed over to my house over to you. If, if Nikki Haley is the nominee And if trump is the nominee, you signed the deed to your house over.
  • Speaker 2
    0:17:37

    So, Grace.
  • Speaker 3
    0:17:37

    He’s racing for Pinks. That’s right.
  • Speaker 1
    0:17:40

    Okay. On to the next question related to Nikki Haley. Who do you think will be Donald Trump’s vice presidential selection in twenty twenty four?
  • Speaker 3
    0:17:51

    Sarah, you wanna go first or do you wanna meet
  • Speaker 2
    0:17:53

    them? Sure. I’ve got them ranked. I’ve got my top three, and then I’ve got a dark horse. So I’ve got Nom as my top.
  • Speaker 2
    0:18:01

    I would give her the highest percentage, and then I’ve got Stefanic, my third one’s Nancy Mace, and then my dark horse is actually Katie Brit. And my dark horse is actually the one that maybe I I really think, like, if god forbid, I was somebody asked me my opinion of what he should do. I would take normie but impressionable, young, and green, Katie Brit, whose husband is a football player, out of central casting, That’s who I would choose to find.
  • Speaker 1
    0:18:27

    Get your Haley stand in here. Like, for the people that want them to do Haley for the suburban women, but they can’t because That’s right. The you know, the base thinks that she’s demonic.
  • Speaker 2
    0:18:36

    But Katie Brick came out and endorsed him second.
  • Speaker 1
    0:18:39

    She’s white.
  • Speaker 2
    0:18:40

    Yep. That’s right.
  • Speaker 3
    0:18:41

    Now unattached Nancy Mace, is fair game as well. This is Nancy Mason’s long time, fiancee was was her big hurdle to make him into the VP shortlist. And I think that, This frees her up a little bit.
  • Speaker 2
    0:18:55

    Shocked the chi as she’s become, like, weirdly mega famous with her a t shirts is now divorced.
  • Speaker 3
    0:19:03

    I I would say the
  • Speaker 2
    0:19:04

    Well, how do you coupled?
  • Speaker 3
    0:19:05

    Controitionally. Contro. Contro. Two people you’re forgetting, Sarah Longwell Tucker who I think has to be on the short list. Trump will think hard about Tucker.
  • Speaker 3
    0:19:17

    I think this is a thing which will haunt Trump, and he’ll think about it and think about it and think about it. Ultimately, I don’t think he will because Tucker’s, like, too famous. To be his running mate. I think that that ultimately hurts him. But the other guy, I think JD Vance.
  • Speaker 3
    0:19:31

    I understand that everybody wants to to be a woman, and Trump probably wants it to be a woman. But also, Trump probably doesn’t love the idea of having a woman with him. He probably thinks that looks weak. He’s got JD Vance. JD Vance has lost the weight.
  • Speaker 3
    0:19:47

    He’s got his his empic going. And Vance has really gotten on side. Trump Vance looks good. Just sort of from a graphic design perspective together, strong, and he broke JD. He loves breaking people.
  • Speaker 3
    0:20:04

    Yeah.
  • Speaker 1
    0:20:05

    Was gonna chime in with JD. I don’t think that there’s any guarantee it’s a woman. Jay and Carrielight because the other name I would I would admit, I need to actually do the do the research on this, but someone told me in Arizona. That actually the Arizona filing deadline is weirdly late, like July or something. So if he did want Gary, he could still pick her.
  • Speaker 1
    0:20:24

    And they could put in a different Magga person in the center race. Like, there there’s still would be time for that Blake. Or, Blake is actually had this person suggested. I I would hope that they could find somebody better than that. But, anywho, okay.
  • Speaker 2
    0:20:36

    Wait. Can I argue my case here, though? Okay. Sure. Just real quick.
  • Speaker 2
    0:20:41

    So the thing about JD Vance is the JD Vance doesn’t get him anybody new. Right? Like, I I do think Trump does understand that their only point of the VP is for an addition. Right? He knows who he’s hurting with.
  • Speaker 2
    0:20:56

    And I think I so just think his, the producer brain of him, the one that’s always putting on a show, does think, like, I want it to be a woman or a black person. You could be right about JD Vance. I just JD Vance. I I I actually think Trump would find that insulphable. Like, I think he wants somebody that’s flashy.
  • Speaker 2
    0:21:15

    But not in his way, not more famous than him. I just think he will get sold hard and will see the merits of. A very pretty young woman who has come on side hard and who has this husband who is a football player. He called him straight out of central casting. They came down to Mar a Lago.
  • Speaker 2
    0:21:34

    And to me, that’s always Trump’s kind of sealable approval.
  • Speaker 3
    0:21:38

    Where are you on Nom?
  • Speaker 1
    0:21:39

    I’m in now.
  • Speaker 2
    0:21:40

    Oh, you’re a no.
  • Speaker 1
    0:21:41

    I think I’m very intrigued by your Brit by your Brit float. Yeah. I don’t know. Katie Nom has like a whole new face, and she’s sleeping with Corey Lewandowski, and it’s just I don’t know. It’s just too pat.
  • Speaker 1
    0:21:52

    Feels trouble. I don’t know. There’s something about it. It just doesn’t feel right.
  • Speaker 2
    0:21:56

    So part of it to me is like that is trashy and I just sometimes also like Trump is just very trashy. And so I don’t know. But I I my dark horse that I’ve been, and I would say is, like, my team has sort of co like, We’ve all been watching Katie Brit Hard.
  • Speaker 1
    0:22:11

    I think that’s an interesting float, Sarah. JBL, would you mind taking us to our ad read before we get to some real deep thinkers? For what to have in twenty twenty four.
  • Speaker 3
    0:22:20

    The next level is sponsored by Better Help. You know, whether or not your family buys gifts for each other during the holidays, gifting something to yourself is always beneficial this time of year. Whether it’s something as small as going a little easier on yourself during the tough moments or treating yourself to some much needed rest. It’s important to take care of yourself. And therapy to your life can be a great way to gift yourself some self love this season as it can serve as a safe space amid all the craziness.
  • Speaker 3
    0:22:50

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  • Speaker 3
    0:23:16

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  • Speaker 3
    0:23:41

    Not that’s what professional means.
  • Speaker 1
    0:23:42

    No doubt we are all gonna need some better help after, all this time indoors with our extended family. Next question, twenty twenty four. I would like to know what scares you the most about twenty twenty four. JBL?
  • Speaker 3
    0:23:57

    Gas prices. Gas prices. I am concerned that it is August and the Saudis who have some interest in having Trump in office decide they’re gonna really throttle production and drive gas prices up. The increase in gas prices the market’s a little bit and everybody runs around saying Oh my gosh. I can’t believe I’m paying three dollars and seventy nine cents a gallon when I used to pay, you know, three dollars and twenty nine cents a gallon and that this becomes a very, very very shorthand, easy talking point for Trump.
  • Speaker 3
    0:24:38

    And it’s something that Biden doesn’t have a ton of control over. This is why why it worries me because this is a thing that foreign actors who may have an interest in Trump winning can partially control.
  • Speaker 1
    0:24:54

    Sarah?
  • Speaker 2
    0:24:55

    So I have a long list of things that are similar to JBL conditions But they are not the thing. The thing I’m most scared of is Trump winning.
  • Speaker 3
    0:25:04

    Yeah. I’m
  • Speaker 2
    0:25:04

    sorry. Like, Abby. Great. I know. I’m and I’m sorry.
  • Speaker 3
    0:25:06

    I thought this was like saying,
  • Speaker 1
    0:25:07

    you know,
  • Speaker 3
    0:25:07

    like, we don’t wanna die.
  • Speaker 2
    0:25:09

    Right. Right. Are. Yes.
  • Speaker 1
    0:25:10

    K. So granting that, what are the top two or three conditions
  • Speaker 2
    0:25:13

    that scare you? One right now that is really plaguing me is the idea of Nikki endorsing Trump. And I know you guys think that’s like a fate complete, but I think that if Nikki runs out the primary becomes the champion of the Normies and then takes the capital she’s built with them and endorses trump and creates that permission structure for them. I think that is very bad. Worry about that one.
  • Speaker 2
    0:25:33

    Okay.
  • Speaker 1
    0:25:34

    That’s gonna happen.
  • Speaker 2
    0:25:35

    So if
  • Speaker 1
    0:25:36

    that scares you, then it’s time to just
  • Speaker 2
    0:25:38

    Yeah. Well, so these are, like, they’re almost, they’re not known unknowns, but they’re, like, they’re, like, high probability things. It’s like the the oncoming constitutional crisis of prosecuting a sitting president, him being either being acquitted, also terrible, or convicted. And then having, like, all of us having to deal with the tension of prosecuting. So, like, or not equate Well, if they take
  • Speaker 1
    0:26:03

    the can all the way through till after November, no, would that none of it comes up?
  • Speaker 2
    0:26:07

    So I’m pretty worried about us dealing with that situation one way or the other. And then it’s the third party stuff. No labels, you know, that we end up you know, we’re looking at a tight race, but it’s a it’s a fair shot one on one, and then you get I don’t know if you guys have been following their trajectory. But they were gonna have this in person convention, which is now gonna be on Zoom, because this is how they’re gonna choose their their candidates, They are talking about doing a contested election play. There was a story where, like, a contingent election where they basically, if they could just gonna play to win enough states to kick it to Congress.
  • Speaker 2
    0:26:43

    I mean, it’s like and it is Joe protocol. Do we
  • Speaker 3
    0:26:46

    understand who would win? In a
  • Speaker 2
    0:26:48

    This is the thing. Contested
  • Speaker 3
    0:26:49

    election in Congress.
  • Speaker 2
    0:26:50

    It looks like a straight up Trump scam. Like a helpful trump scam. A Joe Pertacone had this great tweet about how It’s like a bunch of high political science majors, like, got together and just like, you know, thought about these, like, weird conditional things that they could you know, spend seventy million dollars onto trigger, so unhelpful. So anyway, that’s all scary to me.
  • Speaker 3
    0:27:12

    Can I just say very quickly here? Anybody who participates in this no labels malarkey should have their lives ruined.
  • Speaker 1
    0:27:21

    Okay. Take your
  • Speaker 2
    0:27:22

    time. I don’t
  • Speaker 3
    0:27:23

    mean that, like, you know, they should have violence, a visitor from them. But I mean, that they should become social pariahs. They should lose whatever jobs they might have. They should be kicked off of corporate boards. They should no.
  • Speaker 3
    0:27:34

    I’m serious about this. Right? If you’re a pollster working for no labels, you should never be employed again. You should not be able to, like, go and get a table at, spargo. Like, this this is this is really really bad.
  • Speaker 3
    0:27:48

    And if people are gonna act irresponsibly irresponsibly like this, they should be absolutely shamed to our society’s utmost ability to shame.
  • Speaker 1
    0:27:58

    Should we take this video clip and just kinda put it on the side of a van and play it outside of Penn and Nancy Jacobson’s apartment. Well, how about that? That could be something we could do. Just Jamie law on the streets of New York.
  • Speaker 3
    0:28:12

    Am I wrong?
  • Speaker 1
    0:28:13

    Oh, like, your moral clarity. Your your guys’ answers were all not nearly scary enough, though. And so I want anybody who’s not prepared to get really scared, to just go ahead and press that fast forward thirty seconds button three times. And then we’ll be over this. Okay.
  • Speaker 1
    0:28:30

    Have you done that? Alright. The scariest thing that could happen in twenty twenty four is Joe Biden having a health event. And that’s really the thing that scares me.
  • Speaker 2
    0:28:37

    Oh, yeah. This is what I said last year. And you guys said Joe Biden dies was my worst case scenario prediction. You both went, oh.
  • Speaker 1
    0:28:44

    Dies. No. Sarah Longwell
  • Speaker 2
    0:28:46

    so dark.
  • Speaker 1
    0:28:46

    Even dies would have some upside. Like, I’m talking about, like, a stroke. Yeah. I think that’s right. Physical thing.
  • Speaker 3
    0:28:52

    If you were to die, there would be a small upside to it, right, depending on the timing of it. Right. I don’t know the timing.
  • Speaker 1
    0:28:58

    If it’s, if it’s, like, something that incapacitates him briefly, and there’s a question about what, I mean, oh my god. Okay. Start breathing into a paper bag. Alright. We’re gonna change the subject, uplift people.
  • Speaker 1
    0:29:10

    Can I
  • Speaker 3
    0:29:11

    take back my gas prices? Because price of gas now seems really stupid. As an answer to this.
  • Speaker 1
    0:29:16

    Okay. You can’t you can’t win them all JBL. What is the thing that excites or enchants you? The most about twenty twenty four. You can stick with excites if you want, but I wanted to throw in chance out there as an option.
  • Speaker 2
    0:29:28

    Biden wins all of the same states that he won last time, but by larger margins, much more decisively, and we put we put trump to bed in a way that is unquestionable. He could still say it’s all but like, the margins are big. And and he and he then there’s no backsliding. Like, we don’t, you know, have to worry about Nevada or something like that. I can’t think of another state he could pick up potentially.
  • Speaker 2
    0:29:54

    I can only, like,
  • Speaker 3
    0:29:57

    North Carolina.
  • Speaker 2
    0:29:58

    I think North Carolina was a little fool’s goldie, but, that is the next one on the list. It was on our list in twenty twenty. It’s off. Our list now. But he could win by larger margins.
  • Speaker 2
    0:30:10

    Texas. Oh, yeah. You think Biden could win Texas? This is my this is my
  • Speaker 1
    0:30:17

    This is my enchant.
  • Speaker 2
    0:30:18

    This is the thing I most would be most, you know, that would enchant me.
  • Speaker 1
    0:30:24

    Do you know what’s something that excite you about twenty twenty four?
  • Speaker 3
    0:30:27

    Same thing, but it doesn’t have to be bigger. It just has to be a clean win. Right. And by a clean win, I mean a win that does not involve recount and sort of muddied waters of. Well, I don’t know.
  • Speaker 3
    0:30:44

    You know, just anything that we look at and can definitively say, yeah, he won.
  • Speaker 2
    0:30:51

    But that’s why it needs to be. That’s why I want it to be bigger. I I mean, I wanted to
  • Speaker 3
    0:30:54

    could be more
  • Speaker 2
    0:30:55

    like a blowout.
  • Speaker 3
    0:30:57

    Look, that’d be that would be even better. A buy blow
  • Speaker 2
    0:31:00

    up my landline.
  • Speaker 3
    0:31:01

    I I
  • Speaker 2
    0:31:01

    get to enchant myself with this.
  • Speaker 3
    0:31:03

    I’m saying that my standards for enchantment are much lower than yours. And I could be enchanted by just like, you know, Biden breaks fifty percent, and he wins the three critical states by, like, fifty thousand votes instead of seventy thousand votes. And that would enchant me because that then sets in motion a whole bunch of stuff in Republican world that maybe make things worse, but maybe makes things better. Right? I mean, that that that is that would be popping the first marble in another gigantic group goldberg machine.
  • Speaker 3
    0:31:40

    And it’s not clear how that would end.
  • Speaker 1
    0:31:43

    Something that would excite me is one person I do not expect doing the WWE thing where it’s like, oh, that’s George W Bush’s music. And coming out on stage in Joe Biden. I just want one of those. One person to not let me down. That would excite me.
  • Speaker 1
    0:31:59

    I don’t I’m not that I’m about as optimistic about that as Sarah Longwell do you think?
  • Speaker 3
    0:32:03

    Give me three people who you think it could be. Not that it’s likely to be, but,
  • Speaker 1
    0:32:09

    I mean, I guess Dick, Jamie would probably be the most likely person to do it.
  • Speaker 2
    0:32:15

    And Liz Cheney.
  • Speaker 1
    0:32:16

    And well, Liz, Liz doesn’t count. I want someone on on and Dick almost doesn’t even count
  • Speaker 3
    0:32:20

    as unexpected.
  • Speaker 1
    0:32:21

    Chris almost doesn’t count as unexpected. I want somebody fresh. Pence, pence, and Dick Cheney Schwarzeneggor w Condie. That’s kind of the world I’m thinking. That would excite me.
  • Speaker 1
    0:32:35

    I’m enchanted by the fact that I have a wedding in Portugal to go to next year. I’m gonna start scouting land while I’m there also. So that’s a double whammy. Alright. Okay.
  • Speaker 1
    0:32:48

    We’re coming to the end. I have a good one for this one. So I hope you guys are ready. I want a crazy prediction. Something you think it’s crazy that this might happen, but it might.
  • Speaker 1
    0:32:58

    It’s a crazy outlandish prediction. Sarah, would you like to go first?
  • Speaker 2
    0:33:03

    Trump picks down junior as his VP.
  • Speaker 1
    0:33:07

    I don’t think that’s legal. Isn’t that unconstitutional?
  • Speaker 2
    0:33:10

    Is it? I don’t know.
  • Speaker 1
    0:33:12

    I believe I believe that’s unconstitutional. I’m not sure what you’ve
  • Speaker 2
    0:33:14

    Oh, oh, or is the constitution are limiting factor now? Is that Yeah.
  • Speaker 3
    0:33:18

    Who’s gonna stop him?
  • Speaker 1
    0:33:19

    That gonna work? Twenty twenty four. Okay. That’s possible. That’s kind of close to mine, actually.
  • Speaker 2
    0:33:24

    Trump twenty four.
  • Speaker 1
    0:33:26

    JBL?
  • Speaker 3
    0:33:27

    We have a constitutional crisis. I don’t think this is crazy. I think it’s likely, and I don’t know which form it will be, but we’re, I think, likely to have a constitutional crisis again.
  • Speaker 1
    0:33:39

    It’s like what what is it? What would be the most acute version that you could that you could foresee?
  • Speaker 3
    0:33:44

    The most acute version. And Sarah and I talked about this a little bit on the secret. The worst version would be the US Supreme Court allows the Colorado Supreme Court ruling to stand, and Trump is removed from the ballot in Colorado in retaliation Texas removes Biden from the ballot in Texas because the chaos of the border represents an and the Texas Supreme Court upholds that decision. And then Florida and Ron DeSantis, not to be outdone, try to remove Biden from their ballot. And what you get is you get a handful of blue states and a handful of red states, which go and remove various candidates from the ballot so that once the election concludes, there is no real way to adjudicate a winner that is going to please anything close to a large majority of the country.
  • Speaker 2
    0:34:43

    And this is how Noble twins
  • Speaker 1
    0:34:45

    That’s pretty close to my crazy prediction. I don’t think that’s how David, I like that my darkness is going to the right place. Okay. So here’s my crazy prediction. Supreme Court upholds Colorado intentionally that Roberts and Barrett and Kavanaugh get together over the holidays and they’re like, This is our chance to, like, get rid of this guy.
  • Speaker 1
    0:35:04

    Like, we’re gonna do it. They they they uphold it Trump is put off and that what you suggest doesn’t happen. That does seem possible. That a couple swing states do it. There are a couple swing states that are just run by Democrats.
  • Speaker 1
    0:35:17

    Right? So it’s it’s such a degree that that it is that Trump couldn’t win. And so then there’s a big momentum shift towards towards what Nicki here, Ron DeSantis, and Nikki. Nikki. And then of and Trump and trump and the and and the MAGA media goes wild.
  • Speaker 1
    0:35:36

    And then that brings us back to Sarah’s suggestion, who would be a suitable replacement for Donald Trump on the ballot. Either his son or Tucker.
  • Speaker 3
    0:35:45

    You know what though?
  • Speaker 1
    0:35:45

    We think that we get out of the woods.
  • Speaker 3
    0:35:49

    Then Nicki winning the nomination on her.
  • Speaker 1
    0:35:51

    Oh, for sure.
  • Speaker 3
    0:35:52

    Like Alec.
  • Speaker 1
    0:35:54

    Oh, clearly. I think that’s more plausible. You don’t think that that’s more plausible?
  • Speaker 3
    0:35:57

    It’s I
  • Speaker 2
    0:35:57

    don’t think it’s more plausible that the Supreme Court upholds Colorado.
  • Speaker 1
    0:36:00

    Okay. Sure. Because I
  • Speaker 2
    0:36:02

    think that is I I gotta tell you, if I gotta go on the record on something, it is that I think Colorado absolutely doesn’t get upheld.
  • Speaker 1
    0:36:09

    Okay. That’s I I agree with that. I don’t I think it’s pretty unlikely.
  • Speaker 2
    0:36:12

    It’s all for unlikely. You guys you guys are, like, so weirdly optimistic on this one. Like, you’re, like, in that No. No. No.
  • Speaker 2
    0:36:18

    No.
  • Speaker 3
    0:36:18

    No. No. No. What I’m saying is, like, there’s a a one in a thousand chance Sreme Court upholds Colorado and a one in ten thousand chance that Nikki is able to win the nomination on her own. That’s all I’m saying.
  • Speaker 3
    0:36:29

    I’m saying if these two very unlikely Yes.
  • Speaker 1
    0:36:31

    I’m lumping that in with other other things that could happen to create a convention fight that might yield a Trump junior or a Tucker.
  • Speaker 3
    0:36:39

    I will say this though. If Nikki Haley wants to win the nomination, shouldn’t she at some point stand up and say, Hey, we should nominate a guy, or or Gao who can be on the ballot no matter what because they aren’t being credibly accused of starting an insurrection. Shouldn’t she say that maybe if she wants to win the nomination? Yeah. She should.
  • Speaker 1
    0:36:57

    No. I’m sorry. The Rhonda Sientes has said that that really it was kind of unfair for her him and Nikki. Sent out an interview with David Brody because just these indictments happened. These indictments happened and just created an unfair playing field, you know, because historically, when your opponent is indicted in four different jurisdictions over a crime spree that took place over multiple years on men of over on many different topics, that’s something that that harms your candidacy, you know, because the people love that.
  • Speaker 3
    0:37:29

    She brought to Santa’s as he was the strategic genius he is as he was gaming out his moves and planning. Should he have been able to figure out that there was a very high chance Donald Trump would be indicted in twenty twenty three. I mean, does it seem like he was caught by surprise in all of this? Like, oh, I can’t believe they indicted him.
  • Speaker 1
    0:37:47

    It’s like the whole thing. I mean, all these people are like this too. It’s like these indictments, this is gonna be where the anti entities land next year, by the way. These indictments made it happen. We wouldn’t have had Trump for the third straight time.
  • Speaker 1
    0:37:57

    It wasn’t for the indictments. The indictments for the it’s as if Donald Trump himself and the Republican Senate and the Republican leadership and and find and and there’s none of those people had any agency. The only people at the agency were the four district attorneys and the four grand juries, and they They stuck us with him.
  • Speaker 2
    0:38:18

    I’m super excited to get blamed for Donald Trump being the nominee. Like, We are definitely.
  • Speaker 1
    0:38:24

    Yeah. The tweet that you sent about about Ron DeSantis being bad. That was it. That was the thing. That was the caucus goers and a Tomwa.
  • Speaker 1
    0:38:32

    We’re reading the Bulwark, Twitter feed, religiously. Okay. Our final one. Let’s have do we have a new year’s resolution? Do you guys do new year’s resolutions?
  • Speaker 1
    0:38:42

    I don’t I haven’t I’ve stopped doing them, but I’m starting again. I wanna start back up. So I’m using this as an excuse to start back up. Sarah Longwell what New Year’s resolution will you break in twenty twenty four?
  • Speaker 2
    0:38:55

    So, this is a true one. This is an earnest one, which is I wanna do a dry January. I would like to, you know, the thing about election years for me, so in in twenty twenty, like, I I vaped sometimes, you know, I got a little, and it wasn’t good. It’s not good. You know, like, I get stressed out, and I’ve given up all my other, like, but, you know, still still have some cocktails.
  • Speaker 2
    0:39:18

    And I just, like, I would like to not, you know, did you hear my podcast with Tim Ryan, Tim Ryan’s really been pushing, MDNA and psilocybin? Yeah. I think I think I think I just I need to find So you’re
  • Speaker 1
    0:39:35

    gonna do a dry January, you’re gonna stop vaping, and you’re gonna start hyper dosing much it’s
  • Speaker 2
    0:39:40

    been years. Years, years.
  • Speaker 1
    0:39:41

    You wanna start microdosing mushrooms in January? No.
  • Speaker 2
    0:39:43

    I don’t wanna do any of those things. No. No. No. Just just just cut down on the drinking.
  • Speaker 2
    0:39:46

    That’s all. That’s all. And what I wanna want you I I really wanna do one of these dry January’s, that that I’ve heard people talk about.
  • Speaker 1
    0:39:53

    Dry January. Alright, Sarah. That’s a good resolution. Is that
  • Speaker 3
    0:39:56

    the easiest thing in the world? Like, dry like, I I get I do six months dry at a time all the time without even knowing it. Just, like, don’t have
  • Speaker 2
    0:40:06

    a drink. You’re just not somebody who likes cocktails or, like, you don’t drink wine with dinner. But, like, I I really like to have wine. With a nice meal. But, you know, I gotta be sharp.
  • Speaker 2
    0:40:18

    I gotta be as sharp as I can be.
  • Speaker 1
    0:40:19

    I had I had a dry January too in nineteen ninety three.
  • Speaker 2
    0:40:25

    That’s the thing. It might it’s it might have been that long ago that I had a a full month.
  • Speaker 1
    0:40:30

    Jonathan Last last What is your year’s resolution? You don’t have one?
  • Speaker 3
    0:40:33

    It’s not that I don’t like New year’s resolutions. I hate them. I think they’re insipid.
  • Speaker 1
    0:40:39

    But,
  • Speaker 3
    0:40:39

    you know, in here, I’ll make one. I’m gonna work more in twenty twenty four. I’m gonna cut out any time I spend on hobbies and pleasure and just plow it all back into Bulwark.
  • Speaker 2
    0:40:51

    I find it
  • Speaker 1
    0:40:52

    That’s a good resolution.
  • Speaker 2
    0:40:53

    I find it bad that you don’t find this. To be pleasurable. This is right now. What we are doing right now is both work.
  • Speaker 3
    0:40:59

    Yeah.
  • Speaker 2
    0:40:59

    And I think a little play.
  • Speaker 3
    0:41:02

    It’s nourishing the soul.
  • Speaker 1
    0:41:03

    I’m feeling playful. I’m definitely feeling playful. My usual resolution in case you guys were Ron DeSantis gonna be I I’m gonna try audible books this year. And this is why
  • Speaker 3
    0:41:16

    So good.
  • Speaker 1
    0:41:17

    Because I fee I I love reading. But it’s it’s like it it gets hard. Well, you know, as you when you have children, you know, that my times for reading now are also my times for sleeping. Yes. And so it’s like, you know, I open up a book at eleven o’clock at night.
  • Speaker 1
    0:41:32

    I open up a book at an airplane, and I’m, like, conked out two minutes later. And I I I had read quite a few books. I I I had read good ones this year, but I way fewer than I wanted. And, you know, if I’m gonna put out content output, you gotta Ron DeSantis so I’m gonna try Audible. And I feel like then on my car rides and stuff, I can I can do that?
  • Speaker 1
    0:41:51

    So I’m breaking in. I’m breaking into it. Cowering. This is boring.
  • Speaker 3
    0:41:56

    Yeah. I I feel literally every minute of my day with audio content and a lot of it is formidable. And because everything then is productivity time. You’re brushing your teeth. You’re listening to a book.
  • Speaker 1
    0:42:08

    Yeah. And I probably don’t need to be alone with
  • Speaker 2
    0:42:10

    your thoughts.
  • Speaker 1
    0:42:12

    Probably don’t need to listen to three Denver Secret Podcast. You know, maybe just like, maybe just one and then spend the other time, like, nourishing my mind by you know, listening to audiobooks about the Industrial Revolution or something or Pinoche or, I don’t know, The other the other dictators that Sarah Warren is warning people about this holiday season on Hallmark in between the in between the gay Christmas movie. The gay Christmas romance, and people drinking their peppermint eggnog. Sarah is reminding people that dictators are coming. Yeah.
  • Speaker 1
    0:42:48

    Be aware. Guys, I’ve just I’ve just loved, you know, can we one thing we didn’t say, before I close twenty twenty three was really a great year for the bulwark. I meant to say that at the start.
  • Speaker 2
    0:43:00

    Yeah.
  • Speaker 1
    0:43:00

    And all of you guys, we just appreciate you so much. The amount of people that have signed up for Email list has skyrocketed. The paid boy plus subscribers is up almost doubled this year. Huge. We are so grateful.
  • Speaker 1
    0:43:14

    We’re doing the YouTube stuff. That’s crushing. All of our colleagues are, like, producing really great material. What’s a great year? It was supposed to be, you know, supposed to be an off year, not at the bulwark.
  • Speaker 1
    0:43:25

    So thank you all for hanging around with us. And, I appreciate the two of you.
  • Speaker 3
    0:43:29

    Love you, buddy.
  • Speaker 2
    0:43:30

    Appreciate the two of you. K.
  • Speaker 1
    0:43:32

    Have a wonderful twenty twenty four guys. We’ll be back. No Secret Podcast Sunday next level, but we will be back next Wednesday. Twenty twenty four will be here, and you will be able to count on us every single week give you the optimism and enchantment and joy and love that you deserve in the new year. Bye bye.
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