The polling isn't there yet, but Biden is delivering on the job, MAGA is extreme and dangerous, the GOP is a dumpster fire, and Trump is the ugliest political figure in our lifetimes. After a hellish week at SCOTUS, some hopium for the weekend pod from Simon Rosenberg. Plus, Tim Miller reads from the mailbag.
show notes:
Send your mailbag questions here: BulwarkPodcast@TheBulwark.com
Someone please put Simon's 6-point summary of Trump's depravity in ads on FOX. Stop trying to convince voters the economy is as good as it is. Change the message. Roll up the sleeves & attack Trump w/his own despicable truths. Air ads showing all the elected Republicans who have pivoted pathetically to prop up Trump just to save their own political career.
Great reader comment in NYT that illustrates the circular arguments of MAGAs; and how it doesn't matter how positive the facts are b/c there's no getting thru to them:
"My next door neighbor is a Trump supporter. I love her, so we talk politics as friends; not an easy task these days.
Typically, she becomes intensly upset when parroting something the Donald has said. Repeating those MAGA sound bites turns this fine woman into a raving bundle of red-faced anger.
The other day, she loudly erupted with the usual -- "CNN lies! It lies all the time". I happen to know that she doesn't have cable TV, so I asked her how she knows that they lie.
Me:
"How often do you watch CNN ?"
Her:
I've never seen CNN; Never watched any of their programs. Why would I since all they do is LIE.
There you have it!! The inalterable power of MAGA.
We are doomed."
Julia, this terrific organization also has volunteer opportunities to personally assist people to make appointments to get missing ID documents and they help pay for transportation to appointments and for the documents. They will train volunteers and ask for a 3-hour/week commitment.
Let’s get Simon back again. It’s good to hear a positive spin once in a while.
Great show!
I’ve loved this!! Third time I’ve listened to it. 🤗
A question I have long had. I haven’t been as involved with politics as you Bulwark folks have been. But, my observation has been that the economy swings in this way:
A Republican president comes in as the economy is really taking off — and by the time they leave the economy is in the tank. The Democrat comes in and, with a lot of work, returns the economy to health - which a Republican president inherits. Then trashes. Then the Dem comes in and again slowly and laboriously returns the economy to health. While the Republicans peacock around about how great the economy was while they were in office. Meaning the good economy they inherited and then trashed. Handing a horrible economy to the Dems - to slowly and laboriously rebuild. Think Clinton to Bush. Then Bush to Obama. Then Obama to Trump. And now Trump to Biden. The economy Trump is so proud of he inherited from Obama. Then he trashed it. And Biden has been slowly putting it right …
Hard work to build. Easy to destroy. Messes with the optics of who’s to blame.
As JVL would say, “Am I wrong?”
No, you're not wrong. This is one of those things that makes me crazy b/c history shows that the economy does better under Dems - but almost everyone believes the opposite. Do you remember that Clinton eliminated the national debt?
Furthermore, to quote Heather Cox Richardson: "For forty years, between 1981, when Republican Ronald Reagan took office, and 2021, when Democrat Joe Biden did, the Republicans operated under the theory that the best way to run the country was for the government to stay out of the way of market forces... But the system never worked as promised... The result was that as much as $50 trillion moved upward from the bottom 90% of Americans to the top 1%.
I did know that (Clinton's wiping out the debt). Though it is not top of mind. Why is that?? (Thanks for the reminder!!!)
If only we would brag more and they would lie less . . .
Love Heather Cox Richardson. Have read nearly every one of her letters for YEARS. Such a depth of knowledge. She quotes pieces from the Bulwark from time to time. : ) And I always always learn something from her.
Very good episode as always. But I am not encouraged by Simon's take on things. If the higher ups in Biden's reelection campaign are quietly confident in his chances, they shouldn't be. Biden needs to get the border under control NOW. This issue is going to re-elect Trump if Biden doesn't get his head out of you know where and deal with it. He needs to clamp down on the border and forget about the pearl clutching on the left. And why has Biden's team not reached out to Chris Christie, Mitt Romney, and Mike Pence? Even Nikki Haley? It is going to take every single vote possible to win this thing in November. What if it comes down to 300 votes in Wisconsin or 1000 votes in Pennsylvania? It's possible. I feel like Biden and is team are living in dreamland right now where they think they actually are favored to win. They aren't running as if they are behind, which they are. They need to smarten up fast unless they want that orange nightmare back in the whitehouse in 2025.
Interesting podcast, Simon Rosenberg is a veteran Democratic campaign consultant and Tim Miller also has campaign experience as a Republican consultant, Tim was able to push Simon to speak to areas, where Simon had data and results to share to make his case. It was very well done!
Great closing message about progress taking time in response to the mailbag Q Tim, it's a great point for talking to progs unhappy with Biden, and I'd say it applies specifically to the Gaza situation in the current climate.
What a smart and informative podcast, especially the analysis and insights on the Hispanic vote. Great job.
I *love* Simon's 6-point messaging plan around the 11:30 mark on why Trump can't be elected, and it made me think "yes, this is great messaging, but how do we get people to hear it?" I think maybe we need to take that message to Republicans at large to entice them to stay home and sit out the election (we won't get them to vote for Biden), not just through the conventional messaging pipelines, but like, buy ad space on the popular right wing podcasts like Joe Rogan and Bannon's "War Room" and also on the TV networks like prime time Fox News and Newsmax. It can't just be putting this message out in between commercials on MSNBC/PBS/NBC/ABC and NPR radio to stimulate pro-Biden/anti-Trump turnout. It's gotta go out on the hard right radio/TV waves as well at times that these folks will be tuned in. Again, we're not getting these people to vote for Biden, we're trying to get conservatives and conservative-curious--men in particular--to sit out the election rather than voting for Trump. Ask them:
"If Joe Biden loses the next election and tries to send a mob to the capitol to prevent Trump from being certified as the winner, would you consider that justifiable? If not, then why is it okay that Trump did it?"
"If Joe Biden had put his fingers into your daughter or wife at a department store without her consent would you consider that okay? If not, then why is it okay that Trump did it?"
"If Biden personally paid a media outlet to suppress negative stories about him while amplifying fake stories about his political opponents, would that be okay with you? If not, then why is it okay that Trump did it?"
"If Hunter Biden took in $2B from a single foreign government into his investment fund that he personally profits after capitalizing off of his father's presidency that he personally worked inside of, would that be okay with you? If not, why is it okay that Jared Kushner did it?"
Messaging like this on all those six points (ending Roe, TS docs retention, financial fraud ruling not mentioned above). If it even moves the needle on the margins in getting some conservatives to sit out the Trump vote or write in Nikki Haley or something like that then that's a big deal in a national election that's going to come down to slim margins in about 4-6 states.
I had the exact thought while listening to Simon's succinct, 6-point summary of Trump's despicable acts. I want to see those points in ads on FOX. They won't convince the mindless MAGA fanatics, BUT... those "swivel-eyed loons" have wives, husbands & kids, who likely nod silently at the psycho's rants while quietly questioning their own political position. So many Republican women STILL vote for whomever their husband picks. Smart, sharp, biting ads on FOX skewering Trump on abortion, racism & depravity could finally start changing that.
It's getting late for "polling not to be there." Hopium is turning into copium. Sorry to delve into that unfortunate lexicon, but Trump is winning, folks. Rising gas prices, slowing GDP growth, campus protests and more carnage overseas are not going to move the needle in Biden's favor.
At this point, if I'm Biden and the Dems, I offer R's whatever they want on immigration and possibly even some spending cuts in exchange for Insurrection Act reform. Praying that the hurricane doesn't come isn't a substitute for boarding up your windows.
This is, as they say, complete bullshit.
Correct. Until we get into like August--at the earliest--these polls are not showing hardened sentiments. And when you consider margins of error and how polling results typically overlap both sides of that margin as elections get closer and closer, they tell us very little. See the 2020 and 2022 polling cycles as evidence of this.
Simon, thanks for validating what I've been saying for months.
Simon! Where have you been all my life??!! I love how you think and reason and use data and past experience to strategize. So smart. This was a very compelling podcast and I'm so grateful that I know who you are now so I can hear your viewpoints and keep the positive attitude along with you. I am especially heartened by what you said about voters perceptions of the economy in their own swing states. I live in Michigan in the Detroit area. At least here where I live it cannot be overstated how big of an influence Gretchen Whitmer, Dana Nessell and Jocelyn Benson have had. I like to think that it's not just in the Detroit area. Thanks Tim for the excellent song choice. Loved it. Also? Can you guys please come to Detroit after Philly and DC??
Good, thorough information from Simon. Hope he is back in the fall, to pull in some that may still be on the fence! In the mean time we all need to try and talk up how well the country is doing. One sample of the economy is doing very well…Friday evening in Fresno, CA, overcast, 20-some families standing in line for ice cream treats at Cold Stone Creamery. Family of 4 spends $40-$50 for dessert.
I love Simon but we need an insurance package, a Plan B. That means Hakeem Jeffries as Speaker!
This is a good podcast. I do believe that SCOTUS has deserted their neutral position. Simon is correct. We have to fix this ourselves. We have to spend every day messaging that Trump is not fit to run the country. Let’s go…
I believe the only path for Democrats to win is to inform the electorate as to Trump's fraudulent candidacy (forget the court cases because conclusive adjudications will never materialize). Trump is a consummate hypocrite. He does not support the common man whom he brags about "having their back". Instead, he gifts tax cuts to the rich (TCAJ Act 2017), he exploited the Presidency for personal enrichment and has a shady history of financially stiffing the working-man contractors who made the mistake of working on his properties. Exposing Trump as a fraudulent candidate, as opposed to airing the already well-known critique that he is a liar, a thief and a cheat is key. Exposing Trump's fraudulent messaging and self-serving policy making is the only way Democrats can preemptively counter his imminent and predictable lies about election fraud come November.
I don't mean to brag - OK yeah I do - but to me it was clear the first time I heard of Trump in 1985 that he was unfit for any public office. And I had no idea, nor did I care, where he stood on any political issue. Since then, and especially since 2016 he has given me - and anyone paying the slightest attention - 1000s more reasons why he is unfit. And more importantly that his army of enablers and protectors are just as unfit and even more dangerous to the Republic. Nevertheless, with 150 million voters, there still may be a few minds left to change, so no effort will be wasted. Turnout is especially critical. Trump addicts are already prepared to walk on coals. Never-Trumpers must be too!
Gimme that sweet, sweet hopium. A nice antidote to the bitter SC news this week. Thank you, Tim Miller.
Thank you for your response. Objectively, there is nothing you write that I disagree with. Living in rural America, I just would like to see the Dems not turn a blind eye to that, often now, pivotal electoral voting block. As is often the case, all the great economical indicators grind more slowly in “flyover country”.
Again, thank you, I enjoyed todays show.
While listening to Simon, I was transported back to 2016, hearing much of the same commentary and vibes that were going to bring the election to Clinton. At that time, I felt and heard the people around me wanting to vote for tRump. The media portrayed them as “outliers” and low information voters.
That same vibe did not exist as much in 2020 (Covid probably). But it’s back this year…the rhetoric that our lives are SO bad under Biden is making tRump look like a winner. These people only vote for change. ANY change. They do not care, or have convinced themselves that Biden is worse than anyone else on the planet.
Ask Bill Barr, Chris Sununu etc
I feel compelled to respond to this. A few points: 1) no election is like any other. This is 2024 not 2016. 2) Trump is a far more damaged and degraded candidate than he was in 2016. J6 and Dobbs have happened. He is not the same, the country is not the same. 3) In 2016 he had just had a very bad midterm. We've been winning elections all over the country these last several years. 4) The country is better off and we should be able to over the course of the campaign to get enough people there to win. In politics objective reality and truth matters, and it is just simply true that things are far better today.
Enjoyed the pod; Tim keeps hitting it out of the park w/ his selection of guests!
"The country is better off and we should be able to over the course of the campaign to get enough people there to win. In politics objective reality and truth matters..." IMO, one of three key problems we're facing in our country today is that "objective reality and truth" do NOT matter to so many. (The other two are that many are uneducated, and that lots of folks know exactly who/what TFG is and WANT that.)
A huge chunk of the population not only doesn't CARE about reality and truth; they actively deny it when they don't like it. I don't know how much clearer it could be that the 2020 election was free and fair and yet....
My father held local elected offices for most of my growing up; after I left home he was head of the Dem party in our county for a time. But my parents are prime examples of both the success of The Southern Strategy, and the effectiveness of mainlining Fox Not News for years on end: they continue to deny that Biden won fair and square. They are far from alone. (And they're not dumb: my father used to enjoy reading our World Book encyclopedias from A to Z - literally.)
Ditto for voter's opinions of the job Biden has done and all the measurements by which the country is doing pretty well. That's why so many of us agree when JVL says he feels like he's taking crazy pills. It's why Sarah - who I believe knows as much about voters as anyone in the country - continues to be very concerned.
I hope w/ every cell of my being that Simon is right, and that the campaign will be able to effectively educate persuadable voters. But there is a long way to go, there continue to be extremely troubling indicators of voter sentiment, and I too am afraid of feeling hopeful. 2016 was traumatic; I don't want to be blindsided again.
Thank you for joining Tim today. Your conversation has the fight for democracy on fire, so to speak. I've shared this Podcast with the phrase "must listen" to over 20 people and also with the exec committee of the local Dems as well as to the National Dems. A second listen for me will take place too. Along with pen and paper for notes! We need your clear voice more, in addition you were clear about what we can "do"! I love the phrase, we're going to kick his ass." 🤗🇺🇸
Thanks!
B
Thank you for your response, and of course no two elections are alike. However, if, as you say he’s a damaged candidate (he is) and the GOP is a party in shambles ( it is), the fact that he’s polling as well as he is makes me believe that the voter isn’t “absorbing” those ideas. The voters are not discerning any reality, but voting grievance and change.
I think the democrats are still appealing to the educated voters, leaving behind the voters who do not see that the country is better off. Rightly or wrongly, any jump in gas is the Dems fault. Eggs cost $$$ due to a bird flu, Biden’s fault. Until the low information voter is informed (I’m not calling them stupid, just uninformed) they will always vote for change. And unfortunately, due to lack of basic civics education the group of uninformed voters grows each election cycle. Dems would do well to dump campaign dollars into various comparison/low key educational ads.
Yes, we have work to do to connect our success as a country to Joe Biden. But this is what a campaign is for, and selling something to voters that is true is usually a lot easier than selling something that isn't. Additionally, voters do see things as being better in their own states and communities; they have very high levels of life, job and income satisfaction; and Democrats see as the economy as strong. This notion that people are down on the economy and voting on that just isnt the case or we would not have been so successful in recent elections; and read here for more on how the idea that people are down on the economy or just reflecting their "lived experience" is wrong IMHO - https://www.hopiumchronicles.com/p/the-economy-is-remarkably-strong. We cannot allow people's understandings be considered to be more true than what is objectively true, particularly as people's understandings are so influenced by a massive GOP noise machine. We have to hold true every day to the idea that there is on objective reality out there or we will be truly lost.
Love what you say and agree wholeheartedly but we need a Plan B. Mine is Hakeem Jeffries as Speaker!
Agree 100% that "we have to hold true...;" but it's a non-starter when someone (and there are SO many!) insists that 2+2 does NOT = 4, and that anyone who says it does is not to be trusted. I just don't see anywhere to go from there.
This made me remember what life was like in early 2021 (post 1/6). We were aware there was a vaccine or two developed and produced but that there was no national plan to distribute them. To me that was as concerning, upsetting as Covid itself was. Finally in very late March and April the vaccines were available and everyone I knew was trying to figure out where and how quickly we could be vaccinated. Two friends of mine are medical professionals. One memorable Saturday the two of them vaccinated a total of 1000 people, just the two of them. There were other practitioners there shooting up as many people as they could that day too. People were lined up around several blocks waiting to get a vaccine. The relief we all felt was immense. How do people not remember that and not give the Biden Administration credit for getting the distribution rolling?
Describing trump as a future “king” is a poor descriptor. Dictator works better. I’m British and our neutered, benevolent, non executive, public service King is the head of a fantastic, modern day system of government.
2 points: 1) our system was designed to prevent our Presidents from becoming a King specifically and establishing a hereditary monarchy like you have in the UK. That was the central task of our Founders - to create an alternative system to monarchy and oligarchy. Why we fought a war against you and defeated you in that war in fact. Pretty basic American history. 2) in general, you will be more persuasive in the future if you don't begin your comments by implying that I or others have made an error or are stupid. This is anything but a poor descriptor - it is historically accurate and appropriate.
I’m an atheist, but these 55 minutes made me want to praise the lord. Tim Miller and Simon Rosenberg, you give me air. Wow.
I truly believe postive vibes bring about positive results, ( I think that contributed to me surviving cancer and other bad things that happened to me..way more than normal...lol) for one thing when you are down/depressed, you are less engaged., you have less energy.
So, I try , though not always successful to be my hope believing self when I can.
Thanks for the positive energy and report...it matters a lot.
Between Sarah’s women of Arizona podcast and Tim’s interview with Simon Rosenberg, I enter the weekend with hope. After the confusing Supreme Court case Thursday and Trump’s disgusting antics revealed by Pecker, I was depressed. These two Bulwark podcasts felt like a cleansing. I am ready to be back in the fight. Thank you, Bulwark team.
Listening to this was exactly what I needed today ❤️
I really needed this episode, and it delivered. Thank you Tim!
Great answer on the mailbag, Tim.
*ETA* Loved your Lesser of Two Evils spiel with Dan Savage. I just wish that he had included "pristine dick" in the clip, too.
The Apple Music version is up to date in time for your Saturday errands/chores/workouts
Have a good one
https://music.apple.com/us/playlist/bulwark-pod-songs/pl.u-0embfxV15e
RL Burnside rabbit hole. ❤️
Great show! The MSM only gives the citizens doom and gloom and whatever gets them ratings. I sure hope more people are watching podcasts like this and really becoming informed. Simon backs up his Hopium with facts and experience being part of an election war room.
I would rather be us than them!! Always....
Simon! We needed some Hopium. Thanks Tim!
Love Simon Rosenberg, Tom Bonier, and Joe Trippi. Because of those 3, I avoided all news 2 weeks before the Nov 2022 midterms and did not fret about a red wave. Thank you for this interview, Tim. Maybe Joe Trippi for another show.
Yes Joe Trippi!
I watch / listen to Simon whenever I can... I feel so much better, especially this week after the shit show in the Supreme Court. I feel in my gut that the horrors being visited on 50% of American women who have lost their physical autonomy and the fear of women who currently live in 'Blue' states that their rights will be next will be the deciding factor. Women everywhere (I live in a Blue state and have been unaffected so far) are absolutely enraged. In 2024 I can be raped by my brother, grandfather, cousin, any random male, be forced to carry a pregnancy to term, and if there are any complications, be turned away from the ER because of laws so vague that Doctors do not know what is lawful. This is not abstract, this is happening in several states. For the rest of my life, until the rights of American women are restored, this is the only issue I will vote on.
Bill and I were in complete agreement about the midterms. Listening to everybody else was so frustrating that I finally just stopped.
Now I know there were three of us. Trump is going to lose.
Hopium, baby! I am a recent subscriber to Hopium Chronicles. Better than All Bran for keeping everything in balance!
Seriously, thanks for a great and "hope full" discussion. Like many others, the polls have been worrying for me these past months, and while I remain concerned and believe we all should be, Simon Rosenberg is the antidote to despair.
There is one thing about this election I think is worth noting, however. Aside from his loyal, cultish base, I believe that Trump is simply in a honeymoon period similar to that which tends to occur with most, though not all, former Presidents. Over time, the edges around a President seem to get worn down and softened, while the current occupant of the White House has to deal with current concerns and worries of the electorate.
The fact that we have a current, first term POTUS running against his immediate past, once defeated predecessor is, to my view of history, nearly unprecedented. I know "all the other things." January 6th, my Kevin, checked out Mitch McConnell, Fox News, OAN, ad infinitum, but the thing that doesn't get looked at very much is how that afterglow that almost always applies to recent POTUS' is almost never a factor in a 2nd termer's election.
I wonder what Tim, Simon, and the rest of you whipsmart people at The Bulwark think about this. And how to overcome this factor? I suggest taking Simon's 6 things about Trump for starters. Great pod.
Harrison 1892, Taft 1912. Not auspicious precedents, though Taft's loss was not *to* his predecessor TR.
Thanks.
Where my 55-42 peeps at?
❤️❤️❤️
This is great. But I afraid his voters love watching him in court because he like a political prisoner who is being unfairly judged. They love him more.
MAGA voters are with him no matter what. It is the swing voters, some Haley voters, and the "double haters" that are ripe for the picking.
Generally the true believers show up for the primary election. These are dedicated party members and in the current situation the former president's most ardent followers. The general election attracts a larger group of people. Even people who don't vote often will show up for a presidential election. Those are the ones who might think about the former president being on trial and being connected with the National Enquirer as being something unfavorable in a candidate.
How do you know being on trial helps him with voters? Do you have data to back that up or you just spitballin'? For I don't think this is true.
I think his supporters think he is being unfairly tried. I've heard some say that since paying hush money is not a crime, charging him falsifying business records is just harassing him for being popular. I don't agree. I wish the SC says that President's are immune and Biden throws Trump in Gitmo for ordering Johnson to not put the Bipartisan border bill, giving the Republicans what they wanted, to a vote in order to make Biden look bad. He clearly interfered with Biden's ability to govern.
It is not true. It might have helped him in the primary but did not, because of Nikki.
Getting indicted is never going to be a positive in a campaign.
The list of six things voters will learn about Trump reminds me of the Simpsons gag about Mr Burns having so many diseases that they're all blocking each other.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=aI0euMFAWF8&pp=ygUUc2ltcHNvbnMgYnVybnMgZ2VybXM%3D
That is brilliant!
More Simon! Love the hopium!
Thank you! This was a great episode! I hope the Democrats are as well organized as Simon says. Bring him back.
Tim ➕Simon dynamic duo for sure guarantee U will be Smarter👏👏🏻🗽
Nice to have a little hopium for the weekend. The one thing I would add to your advice is become very familiar with Project 2025. I have had Magat's shut up when I have brought this up. They are fundamentally unaware of this gem and are not enthusiastic.
Especially after the SCOTUS arguments.
I want whatever he is smoking. Straight to my veins.
Amen! Now, from veins to voice!
LOL!
Not sure if Simon Rosenberg is right or not (of course, hope he is!), but his closing words rang true - even if Trump wins, I'd much rather be on this side than in his morally bankrupt band of minions.
Great episode! I appreciate the uplifting message that Simon provided. But what really made this Spreadhead’s heart sing was the bonus treat of JB’s Beautiful vocals on “hope in a hopeless world“. Made my day!
That was a great response to the college student about the threat to marginalized people. I would add 2 points.
There is an idea that we have a right to vote for a candidate we love, which we do, but the question should be is that the correct or moral choice if that candidate has no chance of winning and the real world consequences are destructive. People who are lucky enough to be financially and otherwise secure can think about an election that way.
The second point is that if Trump wins he'll never care about any of those marginalized people that we're concerned with. We will have no influence with him or his people. With Biden we can influence his actions.
One more thing is that Biden has gotten things done by not being public in all his negotiations and sometimes quiet about taking responsibility. There are ways to fight for what you think is right that can be more effective than a head to head battle.
Why hasn’t the Biden White House “informed” Americans about Biden’s achievements and Trump’s dumpster fire already? What were they waiting for?!?
I think you’re missing the ads.
I hear you and sometimes think the same thing but have you seen (1) the other party/candidate disfunction and (2) our media?
Somehow Biden was able to get the Ukrainian passed and signed yesterday. I got home after work turned on abc, nbc, cnn and msnbc. I recorded a bunch of shows just to see when they talked about it. They talked about (1) trump trial (2) Israel protests (3) Trump Supreme Court case, (4) the abortion case from Wednesday, and (5) the documents case in Florida. To be fair, I just skipped around but I didn’t see a single segment on Ukraine aid.
Oh and Biden was in Florida that day. No idea what he talked about.
Biden is boring and normal. He can’t breakthrough in our current shitshow. God it’s been never ending since Trump came down the escalator. Hate that man
They are definitely trying but it's hard to get a message out when Trump is taking up 90% of the media and the Palestinian protestor's get the other 10%. They have been running ads in swing states to try and cope with the Trump trials.
Exactly. In fact it’s utterly impossible. I recorded a ton of news on a bunch of different networks after Biden sighed the Ukraine bill. Biden was in Florida I think or Pennsylvania. Can’t remember. Not a single instance did they talk about aid. It was abortion, Israel, trials, some crazy goo shit, etc.
If it bleeds it leads.If it is loud it is wowed.In campaigns and politics, it is very hard to overcome the loud noise and the simplistic.
Biden has been out in the states that are breaking ground on infrastructure projects and on places where new factories will be built. That seems effective for the localities he is in. I doubt that people will be interested in reading about projects that are 3 states away and if they are, they probably won't remember that for very long. We have short attention spans for things that do not directly affect us.
My takes on this has been consistent - the most likely result is 2020 redux - pretty decent Biden PV win, somewhat narrow EV win.
But, the second most likely result is not a Trump win.
It's that we are not in the middle of the biggest racial and age-related relaignment since the Civil Rights Act _and_ as seen with Haley voters still voting for her months after she's just in her nice, big house talking to rich people all day, and Dobbs, that there's way more drop-off in suburban voters, and Biden actually wins a quasi-landslide - (think 55-42-3, but only NC flips and TX is really close).
I also think there's an better than 0 chance we hold onto the Senate 50-50 and in that scenario, the 50th Senator is a much more reasonable Jon Tester than Sinema or Manchin.
I agree. I think we’ll do better than 50-50 in the Senate. We’ll pick up decent # seats in House, enough of a margin to overcome far left opposition. Glass half full.
No chance Trump wins the popular vote. The boat set sail a decade ago.
I’m still worried about the EC though
I don’t think the GOP has won the PV since Bush 1.0.
2004 bush 2
Then he screwed it up with Hurricane Katrina and the Iraq incursion/war.
Just downloaded but I agree!!!!! We’ll hold the Senate and pick up a significant # of House seats.
That's what I dared to dream recently. From your lips to whoever's out there and listening.
I’m going to start actively affirming it. And checking into sending hand-written postcards. Simon’s remarks about every household in targeted states receiving 5 of them in 2022.
Also check out writing letters for VoteRiders.org, a grassroots organization that helps people in battleground states to get the proper voter ID documents (many red states have passed new laws making it more difficult to vote.
Thank you!
I am a big Postcarder. Checkout https://postcardstovoters.org/ if you are interested in starting. There are other orgs too. Right now they are working on Georgia State Supreme Court race
Thanks!