Iran officially retaliated today after the U.S. bombed nuclear sites in the country over the weekend. Tim, Sarah and JVL reacted to it live and chatted further about Lisa Murkowski and the NYC mayoral race.
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Live is fun, but I do start checking my phone around noon anticipating my weekly dose of the Next Level. Not sure if I can wait until the evening.
Cletus ver Ivermectin! So good!
This whole thing is a dog and pony show. Even the US bombing was performative.
Timmy 2028
The USA has nuclear power plants as terror targets.
What I would like to see is that after the midterms, the senate 50-50. And Lee Corso comes out of retirement and says, “not so fast, my friend”, and introduces Lisa Murkowski as the Democrat’s 51st member.
This show is why I am a supporter of the Bulwark.
Hoping Cuomo loses!
I wonder how much of the support for Mamdani is from people who are choosing him because they feel he is the strongest contender and they don't understand that the ranked-choice voting system allows them to choose the person they like best without "throwing away" their vote. Adrienne Adams and Brad Lander are both well-qualified and progressive, without the Mamdani baggage.
Ed Koch recognized Trump for the scumbag he knew him to be.
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/27/nyregion/trump-koch-feud-letters-new-york-city.html?unlocked_article_code=1.RU8.nIzR.uo1dcwuU1F7H&smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare
Tim, interview JEFFREY LEWIS. This guy: https://www.middlebury.edu/institute/people/jeffrey-lewis , a.k.a. the guy from https://www.armscontrolwonk.com/
You're know you are caught in an epistemic loop when podcasters you follow interview other podcasters you follow, but this is the guy with the specialist knowledge you need right now. Besides, George Conway is reposting the heck out of him so he's already in the club.
Sarah - I don’t think they meant to lie about WMD. They had bad intelligence.
OR - Did Cheney and Rumsfeld cherry pick certain bits of info to convince a president who already wanted to attack Iraq?? That’s what I think happened. This is where Sarah’s naivety about republicans is a weakness. You still hold conservative values, fine, nothing wrong with that. But if you truly believed that the Bush II White House was duped into attacking Iraq then you need to check all the facts. Not swallow the neo-con fantasy.
That one stopped me in my tracks, too. Been a long time since somebody was like "yeah, Cheney and Rove were good dudes." :) You can take the girl out of the GOP, but....
Follow the money. Cheney. Halliburton.
At the time, everyone believed Saddam had chemical weapons. He had actually used chemical weapons against the Kurds and Iran. There was no reason at the time to believe he had unilaterally disarmed himself of those chemical weapons, even though that now appears to have been the case. And he did his best to make his neighbors think he still had those chemical weapons, for obvious reasons.
WMDs might have been a stupid pretext for invasion, but the pretext itself was not a lie, and it took no convincing since everyone already believed it.
Not everyone. I knew.
Remember Willie Wonka? Remember the kid obsessed with the TV—his name was Mike Teavee. He was shrunk to fit in a TV. That’s who Trump reminds me of with his TV obsession.
https://www.statnews.com/2025/06/23/bill-cassidy-calls-for-acip-vaccine-panel-delay-after-rfk-jr-purge/ 👀
Could he be getting Dem-curious too?
How did I miss this??
I would really like to thank the girls in my Southern Baptist youth group who bullied the fuck out of me in middle school. Y'all and my narc father kept me out of church entirely so I never became a Christian nationalist.
I think you were smart enough to figure that out even if they happened to be nice.
Regarding WMD’s in Iraq. “I don’t think they intended to lie.” Sarah, that’s the funniest joke you will ever tell on any Bulwark podcast. You WERE joking, right?
It wasn't a joke, and I think you know that, troll. At the time, everyone believed Saddam had chemical weapons. He had actually used chemical weapons against the Kurds and Iran. There was no reason at the time to believe he had unilaterally disarmed himself of those chemical weapons, even though that now appears to have been the case. And he did his best to make his neighbors think he still had those chemical weapons, for obvious reasons.
Whoa, whoa. We still do the "presumption of regularity" thing here, dude. Civility and assuming good intent.
I’m not going to address your fucking argument because you called me a troll. I’m a paid subscriber to The Bulwark, and listen to Tim, Next Level, Secret Podcast, and admire all of them deeply. I do very occasionally disagree. Of course I knew it wasn’t a joke! I thought that was fairly obvious. And I stated my opinion in that way because I disagreed with Sarah, but respect her on so many other matters so I kept it short
and light. Like her, I’m not re-litigating W.’s war now. If I was a troll I would have written something far more scathing. And if I disagreed vehemently with you about something I wouldn’t call you a troll. Because I know you too, are a paid subscriber supporting their work.
So, you're going to pretend that you actually thought Sarah was joking? I'm sorry, but that is trolling.
I’m also starting to suspect that you are The troll. I gave a lengthy Explanatory answer to you and this is how you come back? What the hell is your problem? Leave me the hell alone.
No. I knew she wasn’t joking. I was being sarcastic, without getting into a long diatribe about a war that should never have happened. I’m not pretending anything. She was wrong.
Did a double take when I heard that, too, and said "oh, you've GOT to be kidding. Who thinks that?!?" :)
The Bush administration did not sell the war to the American people over chemical weapons. They sold it over nuclear weapons and used the 911 attacks to scare the shit out of everyone when they had no idea if Saddam had them or not. In fact, there were plenty of people telling Bush and Co. that he didn't have nukes but those people were ignored.
Cheney wanted a war and that's what we got.
...
I love Tim's fantasy plan!! Become Independents and caucus with the Dems!
Sarah’s probably right that McConnell is the flaw in that plan, which is also why he is the gravedigger of democracy. However, IF he got on board, it would be a tiny step towards his redemption.
The PLAN needs a name. Come people what we got?
Actual Plan, As Opposed to Concepts of a Plan
🤣 nice!
The whole thing is BS. Trump is a child. He gets away with this so what’s next? His drama may just escalate to even bigger things because he got away with it.
Lisa Murkowski can GO SUCK IT
If she is too afraid to make hard decisions because she is afraid of her safety - pathetic
Why? Besides regular Republicanness, i.e. being the least rotten of a bunch of rotten apples on health and social policy? I'm pro-moderate in general but if you know something I don't, do tell!
Yup.
JVL is right (THIS time :)) about the bombing of the U.S. airbase in Qatar being good news. WE know that the Iranians warned the Qatari's, who warned the U.S., and that they picked a base away from populated areas. So, your question of how is this an acceptable payback and saving face from the Iranian perspective is this: this was done for the domestic Iranian audience, who does NOT have access to the internet. The Iranian public is being told "We dropped the same number of bombs on a U.S. base as they dropped on us. The base is destroyed. We also hit a U.S. base in Irag." Never mind that the bombs were quite different in type or that they didn't completely destroy the base or that the Iraqis report no knowledge of any bombs being dropped. Iranian public doesn't know that. All they know is that their government stood up and hit us back just as hard as we hit them (or so they think). Let us hope this is the end of U.S. involvement.
Yeah, he ACTUALLY had a good argument there.
😆
Tim nailed it.
On the NYC mayoral race, I'm a former New Yorker, and my old Congressman, Jerry Nadler seems to be endorsing Scott Stringer. Did he fall through the cracks? Former City Comptroller. Nadler's a good guy, if that counts for something. There a lot of Old School New Yorkers who will just see who their newspaper (yes, their print newpaper) endorses. Or their representative (if they like them).
It strikes me as entirely plausible that DJT moved forward with this bombing in the hopes there is a terrorist response within the US. Nothing quite like a terror attack, and a big-boy-with-missles response, to boost one's approval numbers.
Well, Stephen Miller might be thinking that and encouraging him. Trump can’t think more than an hour ahead in time according to Maggie Haberman, and I believe her.
Tell me that's based on reporting, not just a quip. LOLOL.
Well, she’s been covering him since the late 90s, so I think she’s got a pretty good read on him.
Good point.
…and justify declaring martial law.
I went dark, you went darker. And also not wrong.
It's always darkest before the dawn, so either this is as bad as it gets or it's not? :)
Re: martial law, that's been the [weirdly noticeable] subtext for awhile. He will always choose conflict and chaos. He's like an evil king who has people tortured to entertain him. Think Joffrey from Game of Thrones, but dumber. And looking more like a melted orange candle (that one's for my b*tchy queens).
<spits out drink> Melted orange candle - ha!
My biggest concern is that there are terrorist attacks within the U.S., could be organized Iranian attacks, or lone wolfs, or even false flag attacks. And that provides a justification for Dump to declare Martial law and postpone the election!
... and you went darker still. And also not wrong.
Sarah: The government has been telling me lies since they were saying Vietnam wasn't a war and we were just sending "military observers" there (although I was admittedly a little kid). And before WMD there was also Iran-Contra (which was very WTF).
"Some people have called me a Karen!" I died.
I mean ...
Obviously, the Iranian regime is at the moment, as JVL notes, keen to quickly calm roiling domestic ire - thus this Kabuki dance.
But as Sarah sorta observed at the moment of US action, Trump himself - then certainly, but dangerously once invested, forever after - is more the wild card than the Iranians. If he takes umbrage despite the obvious cosplay of Iran's 'retaliation', then it's quickly again 'in for a penny, in for a pound.' HULLO, folks - any memory at all? DJT always doubles-down.
Strap in.
Except... that Dump publicly thanked Iran for letting us know beforehand.
And that means what, exactly? I mean the drama of him “thanking” them? All theatrics all the time.
YES Tim… How is a vote for Cuomo in this primary different from a vote for DT? The rich folks want Cuomo in… why? Because he will continue to allow them to dominate NYC while the regular folks continue to not afford to be able to live in the city. The rationale for voting for Cuomo is exactly what “normy” republicans used to vote for DT over Kamala… I mean who were they gonna vote for, the Socialist Kamala? Again I would love to hear a Bulwark podcast dedicated to how Reaganomics and the Republican parties ideal Capitalist agenda has benefited the bottom 80% of the income bracket folks… how a middle class being obliterated is good for the majority of us.
Getting Sen Schumer out of leadership would absolutely be worth it to boost Sen Murkowski to the Minority Leader!! 💖
😁☕️
So it’s fine that we wasted billions of dollars and then Iran wasted some, so these tough guys can puff up their chests, and feel like real men?
Testosterone poisoning. Most outgrow it, but those with inadequacy paranoia seldom do.
Nuclear Sites Totally Obliterated?
Ok, so if that’s a fact, instead of us playing Where’s Waldo, Let’s play Where’s Iran’s Nuclear Fuel.
Really surprised they managed to move it all prior to the strike, It's not like they had any warning!
Oh wait...
John Cornyn of Texas is also politically dead, Tim. He won't admit it, but he can read polls.
I think “Democrat Socialist” may be one of those terms like “intifada” that means wildly different things to different people. The NYC group has a platform that is absurd. They may think Zoran is winking and nodding to the “normies” but I suspect it is the other way around. He is winking and nodding to the DS but doesn’t intend to try to implement their platform. Why? Because he didn’t strike me as a fanatic or stupid and you would have to be both to think that that platform has any realistic chance of being implemented in NYC. You can’t seize the means of production on a city by city basis. Ditto, abolish police, open prisons, make education free, etc., etc. ad nauseam. And nauseating is what it is. Nauseatingly childish and stupid. Like they think these are realistic goals for a mayor anywhere without massive change at the national level. I suspect he means “Democratic Socialist” in the European sense like more progressive or left-wing approaches to govt services and wealth inequality and its by products, but essentially co-existing with capitalism. And THAT, at the city level, is something that might just incline him to trying things others haven’t for fear of the label. And maybe he is trying to make the word “socialist” less scary, less like a bogeyman. Countries like France, Sweden, Denmark, Germany, etc. all have some parties with some “socialist” or “socialism” in their names and yet these countries appear to be doing just fine on the capitalism front while also having much better outcomes on fronts like education and health care.
I think the same thing is true of “intifada.” No matter what some people meant when they said it, the phrase is like a game of telephone that can end up having a very different meaning after many layers. I suspect that a lot of young, progressive/liberal protestors don’t know anything about the first or the second intifada and aren’t intending to advocate for the eradication of the state of israel, let alone all Jews, but just mean equality or justice (again a very slippery word) for Palestinians. Maybe they should know? Perhaps it is irresponsible? Maybe for someone who first uttered it. But I can’t believe that thousands of college students mean to endorse killing Jews or Israelis. A lot of these people are extremely earnest young people. Moreover, those opposed to a Palestinian state or to any change in the status quo seem to interpret any support for Palestinians as necessarily supporting the worst atrocities of Oct. 7th or that the are secretly applauding same. I just don’t think that is true. I fully support the right of Israel to exist and also support some sort of justice for palestinians who were cruelly dispossessed. No one can return the world to the status quo ante, nor should we want to. At the same time, it seems like this region will continue to be a site of conflict as long as Palestinians do not achieve some sort of equal status either within Israel or in a separate sovereign state that is not subjected to continuous occupation. It is unjust.
On a side note: “Karen” was always a misogynist label. Not trying to defend the folks that inspired the label, but I view it as tinged with the general misogyny in the culture that reserves a special hatred for women who aren’t “nice”, who speak loudly, who have strong opinions. It is a way to shame and silence them. Just ask Ellen DeGeneres. DeGeneres may actually be a pill, but how many celebrity men are “pills” and weren’t subjected to publication shaming. Indeed, some of these guys who had a folksy, approachable public persona like Jerry Lewis were actually SOBs (reportedly) and some, like Bill Cosby were sexual predators. I don’t think for one minute that all the public figures who are assholes IRL, let alone sexual predators, have been outed. Not by a long shot. So if some people were calling you a “Karen” Sarah just chalk it up to garden variety misogyny and ignore it. That’s my take anyway.
Great show!
Great reaction video.. but I have some legitimate questions..
1. Do we hate Iran for any other reason than the Revolution in the '70s? (Iran and most of the Muslim world has repeatedly stated that a LARGE part of their antagonism to Israel is a response to the Zionist annexation of Palestine [under the approval of the west], and the subsequent apartheid, now genocide of the Palestinians)
2. Doesn't the fact that they warned Qatar that there were going to be strikes, prove (again), that Iran is a rational actor, and knows how this whole game is played?
3. Why do we consider the Netanyahu government, a "trusted ally" or even a rational actor, based on these actions.
4. Since Israel has a right to exist, does that mean the Palestinians do not? Is this a ZeroSum equation?
5. 2 out of the 3 Nations involved in this are signatories to the Nuclear Nonproliferation treaty, why is the only nation who is a signatory, has never proliferated weapons, and doesn't even have nuclear weapons, the constant villain? (back to #1).
Agree with Tim, two incompetent clowns.
If I was a perfidious ayatollah looking for real revenge, I would also telegraph my ‘face-saving’ attack to make Trump he’s won this round (doofus that he is) and then plan for something that would really hurt, possibly in the US if they have any capability. Meanwhile work on getting a nuke having learnt that it’s the only way to be left alone.
Had the same thought!
I like Tim's picks; I'm going with Myrie as number one
Zohran could run for mayor as a WFP platform, no?
Trumpster is our version of Bagdad Bob.
He surely has a female, alter ego, Baghdad Bobette, in Karoline Leavitt!
:) :)
Totally agree on Murkowski becoming independent.
So curious as to what policies of the GOP today resonate with her? I agree completely, she should be Independent. My fear is all these 'moderates' like Collins, Rubio etc etc, was all cosplay. I'm praying for a book release party defect to Independent for sales. If she doesn't, well....she likes all the policies of today's GOP.
I had CNN on for a few minutes but turned it off because that hack Scott Jennings was on. He said something like" I told you 24 hours ago it would not escalate". I don't know why people like him are jumping on the peace bandwagon.
Isn't there a truism that says "revenge is best served cold"?
Why would anyone think repercussions would come right away?
I could picture a dirty bomb going off in some American city 6 months from now.
Seems a little early for a victory lap.
"La venganza es un plato que se sirve frío". That is:
"revenge is a dish best served cold".
Never too early for a MAGA victory lap. Reality is irrelevant. Ecstatically bull-horned the "Minnesota shooter is a leftist terrorist" lunacy.
Since then, crickets.
Hegseth and Rubio reminded me of George W on the deck of the aircraft carrier.
How much is Putin playing puppet master with Trump/Iran conflict and is Trump / US once again being played by Putin? Netanyahu has his own agenda (divide and conquer to stay in power). Just asking. Regardless, a toxic mix not good for US or globally.
Murkowski, King, Sanders and Collins, could wield tremendous power if they all banded together and became democrats.
Finally, JVL is correct about Fetterman’s stroke and personality changes. Sinema was compromised by greed.
And just like that, the constitution just really doesn’t matter. Even here on The Bulwark.
Nothing about this is making me feel safer than I did last week.
If the bombing of nuclear facilities was so successful why wasn’t some radiation detected immediately especially around Fordo? It may have actually been a good thing, IMHO, that the Iranians moved the enriched uranium. Maybe I just don’t understand how bombs and the destruction of enriched uranium works—I am definitely not a nuclear physicist.
Tim's facial expressions are killing me today!
I totally support Sarah expressing her opinion and don't like it when people pile on and insult her. But being unused to not trusting US gov & intelligence is evidence for the "Sarah is naive" hypothesis. Our founding fathers did not trust government. The House of Rep class of 1974 demonstrated how and why we cannot trust any secretive government department. Verification and sunlight are the only way to believe anything. That's not me being cynical - I still believe we can do wonderful things, but only if we demand the government we deserve.
Midnight Hammer??? Thors Hammer? Hammer of the Witches.
Who are these people???
Ha! Hammer of the witches was my first thought. Historians know that the nut leading the witch hunts in Europe was "the Hammer" and I'll bet some of the nutty religious types in our gov't want to go back to those times, (PS - That guy was a real wacko! Malleus Maleficarum details his work and insane policies. Great book!)
Sarah, this is exact same problem I had with Bill Kristol as well. There is not even a single pinpoint of light in Trump for the American ideal. As to the rest of the live cast...well done. I am glad Iran was extremely measured in it's response. Hopefully folks can put away their toys of war and sit and talk. However, when neither side can be trusted, at all, to keep up it's end of whatever bargain might be agreed upon....I see little point. As to NYC mayor. So glad I don't live there. The thing with Zoran, the only things I know about him are from the FY POD, I would likely vote for him. We all keep saying the Democrats should take big swings, be bold. I think this is the right approach. Could actually achieve the things he proposes? Likely not. Maybe one thing? Perhaps. But we need people who will boldly try at least.
They say that until somebody actually attempts a big swing. They are not yet ready to do whatever it takes.
Oh AND Russia wins out if this because oil prices go up and they earn more for their war.
Well let’s see if Iran moved 60% of the stuff then now how is the bombing really all that helpful??
JVL said exactly what I thought this morning - it's all kayfabe. We are pretending too!! I think our military knew that the Iranians removed all their material beforehand. It's all for internal consumption of the people brainwashed by state regime media.
Both US and Iran
Oh JVL, that was the best! You asked to speak to his manager😂😂😂
Great show guys. What a ridiculous timeline we live in.
I'm with Sarah re Zohran!! Great show!
The story is only starting. Lots of stories the US gave heads up to Iran and that Iran moved most of its nuclear materials before the US strike. They’re likely going to quickly escalate nuclear program and/or lots is on the way and this is a stall tactic.
JVL’s unusual optimism is way way too premature. These are people who kill their children and grandchildren to save face.
Cletus Von Ivermectin. A+ for JVL!
A FAILED attack on a U.S. base is a good thing, JVL. That's an opportunity to ratchet things down.
in the end keeping any nation state that wants nukes may be impossible unless we're willing to invade them as we did with nazi-europe in 1944 -- and we are never going to be willing to do it. so, then what? a robot army maybe? i think i saw this on tv once, somehow the robots never win.
The JPCOA worked well for a while until Criminal Trump blew it up. We should have used that as a basis for negotiating an end to Iran support for terror. If we'd worked on that, we might well have peace now.
i believe we have information now that in fact they were skirting it and intended to eventually produce nukes. which doesn't mean i thought tearing it up was a good idea, look no doubt trump is a bad player in this mess... that's what it is, a complete mess. it's a failed policy obviously if the long stand policy intent is one thing and all u have to show for it after 20+ yrs is a bunker buster result by showman like trump and that's being generous.
... anyway the pt is this -- I wouldnt hang my hat on the treaty because there is some data, some information we found or someone found that appears legit that shows efforts to skirt it, a desire to so and on.
no i think iran is unreformed -- i mean i think they believe they need them, want them and will continue to work on that goal indefinitely -- weathering any and all set backs until they reach that goal -- leaving the us with a conundrum if we truly believe otherwise. is anything except total regime change even going to work and if isn't, then what?
I don't dispute that. In fact, I believe the entire treaty was written with the belief that Iran would continue to try to produce nuclear weapons, but that the treaty allowed inspections that could help us notice when they took active steps and provided a mechanism to push back on that.
I don't take back anything I said here. The treaty was working, and we should have used it to move on to get their agreement to stop sponsoring terrorists. We are only in a state of war now because Trump took us out of the agreement instead of building on it. I blame him for all of the violence since, because his withdrawal enabled all of it.
They people who had TBIs I believe we're awarded Purple Hearts. Trump wanted to deescelate - but he really shouldn't have underplayed the injuries the way he did. It was insulting.
Something as simple as an unattended bag left, anywhere, could be absolutely terrifying.
Enjoyed the Senate talk but yeah... any 'genuine' moderate R should have been an independent a while back and I don't trust those 4 to actually have the guts.
I appreciated that the King of England weighed in finally and at last!
People who are not very informed on Israeli history, have no idea about the significance if the 2nd Infitada. It did not happen due to an occupation, or violence. It happened because there was a looming "threat of peace".
Not only was it horrible, and stopped the peace process, it almost singlehandedly crushed the left wing in Israel. The right has been in power since. And the parliamentary system they have also doesn't necessarily ensure the best candidate for PM wins.
So trying to whitewash "Infitada", or "from the rive to the sea", or even "free Palestine", as anything but genocidal towards Israel, isn't honest.
This also isn't tacit agreement or even liking the far right Bibi government. Israel isn't Bibi anymore than we are Trump. They are both awful.
Either way, I hope Zohan Zohan doesn't win.
Question: Why should anyone care what the mayor of New York thinks about the Israel–Palestine conflict?
It’s home to the single largest Jewish population outside of Israel.
Sure. That explains why someone might care more about the opinion of the mayor of New York more than the mayor of Albuquerque. But it doesn't explain why anyone should care at all.
I guess it depends what you mean by “anyone.” New York Jews care a great deal. Nationally, I think a lot of people are alarmed at the perception (right or wrong) that an anti-Semite might become the leader of the most powerful city in the country.
If Mamdani were an anti-Semite, that would indeed disqualify him from being the leader of a city with a million and a half Jews — or even just one. Is he though? If he were not Muslim, if he were some generic white liberal saying the same things, would anyone who isn't crazy think that he's anti-Semitic in any way that could remotely impact New Yorkers? Isn't it actually pretty anti-Semitic to associate all Jews, even those who live thousands of miles away across an ocean, with the current leaders of Israel?
To be clear, I am not saying that is my personal opinion. There were some very strong reactions to him referencing a “global intifada” in his conversation with Tim, with some seeing that as a clear antisemitic dog whistle.
I don’t have enough knowledge about the historical context for the first and second intifada to have an opinion either way. I’m just explaining what I’ve seen expressed elsewhere.
As for your question about associating Jews in New York with Israel, it sounds like you are not from New York. There are sizable orthodox and Hasidic Jewish communities in New York that do indeed have strong ties and affinities with Israel. Even more liberal Jews might not feel comfortable with a candidate who they think is speaking in antisemitic dog whistles.
I do think legitimate criticism of Israel or sympathy for Palestinians is often hard to tease apart from veiled antisemitism, and the same is true for Islamophobia disguised as pro-Israel rhetoric. Unfortunately it makes both sides less willing to give the benefit of the doubt to each other.
I understand where you're coming from. I'm not from New York, but I grew up in a town even more Jewish than New York (by percentage). I have known lots of Jews with close ties to Israel — including many Israelis. But that part about the conflation of criticism of Israel with anti-Semitism is kind of an aside, even though I really wonder how it would come across if he were, say, a Hispanic woman from the Bronx who used to be a bartender, rather than Muslim of Indian ancestry born in Uganda.
Because even if you were to decide that Mamdani thinks Israel shouldn't exist — something he has specifically refuted, but something I have heard very reasonable Muslims from the Middle East say to me, personally — then maybe that's bad, maybe it's anti-Semitism, but I do wonder what relevance it has to the role of New York mayor in particular.
Trump announced where and how the attacks would take place. Just not when.
Susan Collins is too much in bed with the likes of scumbag Leonard Leo of the Federalist Society to change parties.
After Trump's harsh words for Leo and his virtual divorce from the FedSoc, that would not constitute much of a reason.
Tim is right. Iran is very, very good at getting their proxies to do what they ask. Asymmetrical warfare will be their MO going forward.
It’s ALWAYS a great show.
The Alison Cooper nickname went straight over my head. I had no idea who Trump was talking about. He should’ve work shopped that nickname. He’s losing his touch.
No, don’t think it has anything to do with Alice Cooper. I think until hit the bull’s eye—it was a homophobic slur…sadly.
Thumbs!! Meant to say Tim hit the bull’s eye!
You just have to be really, really old (like me) to understand the reference (to Al Cooper, famous singer, look him up).
Sarah’s resting and sane face does provide some calmness in this crazy time. Also, really digging the popped collar look for Sarah. Not many can pull it off in 2025.
...it's why I love watching the pod rather than listening...the expressions, the gestures, and the fashion. Yes, Sarah is adorable (JVL and Tim, you too.)
Sees video pop up on YouTube. Immediately closes YouTube and rushes to The Bulwark to watch it.
Ditto
On multiple fronts the Trump Administration is facing supply shocks of its own creation: tariffs, mass deportations of migrant workers, escalating military conflict in the Middle East. If this persists, there will inevitable stagflation. Cutting interest rates is no cure.
Given the compliant Congress, the risks are escalating that the Trump Administration will succeed in debasing the U.S. dollar. They are willing to do that for a doomed short-term fix to finance the BBB, causing a debt spiral, by attempting to cut short-term interest rates to 1-2 percent. Long-term rates will go the opposite direction, then short-term rates will explode.
The recent SCOTUS shadow docket ruling attempting to preserve the Fed's independence is only a Band-Aid. Only Congress standing up to the Trump Administration will avert this. I am not optimistic. The surest political bet in Washington so far is Republican capitulation.
Free access article. https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/federal-reserve-interest-rates-pressure-trump-4ffd1edd?st=384NPo&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
I don't understand the lack of understanding these senators have about power. 5-8 solid independents could hold ALL the power. Why be rolled by a party that hates you?
The NSC staff has been significantly diminished, and it headed by Rubio, who said yesterday that we did not need intelligence for the aerial strike with 14 GBU-57s. The NSC has a primary role of coordinating the execution of military and diplomatic activities. The conflict in the Middle East is very complicated. Other nations are attempting to play chess to reduce tensions. We need an effective NSC to play. But Trump is trying to eat the pieces. It does not help that in the Situation Room Rubio is sitting in the corner wearing a dunce hat and Hegseth is doing push ups.
Like Sarah I also spent the weekend thinking we can no longer trust our government! How sad!
Agree Sarah. I have always laughed at the far left and now right who never trust the government. However, I am certain this Administration lies always and can never be believed. Very sad indeed to be this cynical but this administration has earned our disrespect.
On multiple fronts the Trump Administration is facing supply shocks of its own creation: tariffs, mass deportations of migrant workers, escalating military conflict in the Middle East. If this persists, there will inevitable stagflation. Cutting interest rates is no cure.
Given the compliant Congress, the risks are escalating that the Trump Administration will succeed in debasing the U.S. dollar. They are willing to do that for a doomed short-term fix to finance the BBB, causing a debt spiral, by attempting to cut short-term interest rates to 1-2 percent. Long-term rates will go the opposite direction, then short-term rates will explode.
The recent SCOTUS shadow docket ruling attempting to preserve the Fed's independence is only a Band-Aid. Only Congress standing up to the Trump Administration will avert this. I am not optimistic. The surest political bet in Washington so far is Republican capitulation.
Free access article. https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/federal-reserve-interest-rates-pressure-trump-4ffd1edd?st=384NPo&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
One quibble with JVL. I think motives do matter. An alleged 'good act' (if this even proves to be such) perpetrated by an elderly authoritarian wannabe is no cause for celebration. That's a cynical take, to say the least. For example, Tucker slavers regularly over how 'clean and beautiful' Moscow is compared to other Western capitals. Yes, we'd all like clean and beautiful metropolises, but at what price? Objectively 'good results' carried out by bad actors should never be cheered on. That's not TDS -- that's just history. Because the next action taken by the incompetent clown sitting on his American throne will not be for the greater good -- only for his self aggrandizement. Just as this bombing campaign was.
Also, I'm sure Iran has been left with enough uranium to make a dirty bomb. Something they now have even more incentive to do. For this they don't need a ballistic nuke -- just a suitcase. This strike was wholly unnecessary for the safety of America. And as a result, we may all be less safe.
Plus if the sites were still intact, and we made a deal, we would know (in theory) where to send inspectors. They were previously sending out the highly enriched material. (My husband points out that the Russians gave them cash in return for this that was then used to fund their proxies, but that is another story.)
Yes the Russians were buyers for sure. Also purchasers of drones to use in Ukraine. Which to me is one small silver lining in the event Russia is low on drones, bc while I cannot support this 'war', I do support Ukraine. And one of the most annoying things is how the two situations are conflated on the anti-war MAGA right. There is no comparison.
Cletus von Ivermectin. I just spit out my coffee. Is this the first time you've used this, JVL?
Cletus is a recurring character
Right, but perhaps not the surname von Ivermectin, which I’d not heard before. Hahaha! Thanks, JVL for delivering this bit of heavenly mirth on yet another pensive day in Drumpf World!
So good, right? I only caught it because my vet gives me that Rx for my pets.
The name has been around since 2020. Kind of like Art Van Delay.
I've definitely heard Cletus, but never the full name!
We're fortunate that this initial phase of the military Iran incursion went well and the airman got out unscathed. But I have zero confidence that Trump and his band of sycophantic bootlicking lackeys can navigate our nation through the difficult negotiations and can maneuverer us out of the diplomatic crisis. They are the confederacy of dunces and they're totally incompetent and inept. They might flounder their way into a peaceful solution, but I'm not optimistic.
Sarah: it is a strange feeling to distrust the American Government in these scenarios.
Every leftist: *mouth agape*.
Have you ever been so shocked that you forgot to breathe?
FWIW: I subscribe because it is the only place that I hear arguments that challenge my views.
The Bukwark’s analysis is often excellent … but … their ideology is not great.
As the genocide has been going on, I’ve been monitoring The Bulwark’s response. Maybe their analysis is starting to overcome their ideology?
Initially, it was “history started on Oct 7”, nothing Israel ever did justifies Oct 7, but everything Israel has ever done is post-hoc justified by Oct 7.
Then as the atrocities mounted, The Bukwark fell silent - no mention of the cutting off of all aid to Gaza for nearly 3 months.
Then, we got to the “it’s all Bibi’s fault” stage, and we’re working through that at the moment.
AFAIK: they have not looked at Israel’s actions through the lens of international law. For example, they call Israel’s actions “effective”, where I call them terrorism and violations of international humanitarian law.
When it comes to Mamdani, Sarah can’t seem to get past the combo of leftist AND anti-Zionist. I hope she can.
But … in just the last few days, when they see how Israel is manipulating the United States to act against OUR interests … maybe that’s changing?
I hope so. Not just because it is the moral and legal thing to do, but because unconditional support for Israel will probably split the Democrats in 2028, letting Trump win.
Again.
Trump is incapable of putting Americans at the front. It’s totally about his ego and he needs to show his bombs are bigger and because he is narcissist he wants them to talk about him. This is totally about him
Bill Kristol, clearly a smart guy who must be in his happy place. Neo cons are smiling.
I still intend to vote for Senator Murkowski next time she’s up for reelection, if she tries for another term. Whether or not she’s still a Republican, or decides to be an Independent or Democrat; although I do think she would do better as a Republican or Independent. The first time I ever voted was in her write-in election and she won as an Independent. We started ranked choice voting after that; I don’t know why everyone’s so confused by ranked choice, it’s not like you need to list every single candidate if you don’t want to, you can just put down one, or two, or four out of six (random number chosen for illustrative reasons). I suppose some people are easily confused and aren’t able to adapt to change. Senator Murkowski has won as an Independent before, she can win as one again. I’m not as sure she would win as a Republican. The Republicans here keep trying to get rid of ranked choice, probably because they can’t vote her out while we have it.
The other two definitely won’t get my vote. I really, desperately want the Democrats to make a serious play for those seats, having at least one Representative from a party that isn’t fascist would be nice. We’ve elected plenty of Democrats in the past. I don’t know why Democrats are so easily intimidated, it seems like they’ve given up before even trying; that kind of attitude screams loser. Honestly, Trump is a literal loser and that didn’t stop him from trying again, which is probably why he won.
“King” Trump the Loser should be his moniker. Assuming Democrats stop trying to take it for themselves.
I'd love to try ranked choice voting!
Australia moved from 'first past the post' to preferential voting in 1918, and introduced compulsory voting in 1924. Not perfect, but has worked reasonably well since then.
I am also baffled why everyone says voters are or will be SO confused by ranked choice voting. People can be surprisingly dumb or foolish but... it's not hard to make a ranked list? People do it all the time!
The people who say voters will be confused are, by and large, the people who want to prevent ranked choice voting from being implemented. It's one of several bogus arguments they offer.
Here’s Adam Kinzinger’s video explanation of why he thinks we’re done, and that Adam thinks this bombing was the right thing to do even if it was Trump that had to do it. Adam also explains that Trump complied with the War Powers Act, and that the complaints don’t understand what it requires. Enjoy!
https://adamkinzinger.substack.com/p/update-video-iran-retaliates-it-appears?utm_source=podcast-email&publication_id=1910658&post_id=166663120&utm_campaign=email-play-on-substack&utm_content=watch_now_button&r=18473b&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email
Not sure I'm gonna watch this. Adam lost me with his techno-wank video about the mighty B2 bomber earlier today. Pretty sure he creamed his pants when he heard of the attacks on Iran. Once a neo con Republican, always a neo con Republican, never-Trump or not.
This is when, knowing that there are few, IF ANY, people around Trump thst aren't unqualified sycophants, is so so scary.
He lucks out, but these sycophants care more about winning his favor then protecting us, or using any kind of measured planning before doing these things.
You guys need to talk to Adam Kinzinger. Just received this email from him:
“…good news happened. Iran responded by firing some missiles that were intercepted, and has seemed to make it clear their retaliation is over. It’s in their interest to de-escalate, and I think this conflict will de-escalate. Take a deep breath, regardless of your feeling of the strike I believe we are coming out the other side.
Have a nice Monday,
Adam”
I hope he’s correct.
Personally I think the US citizens are being conned by Trump, Saudi Arabia, Israel, Iran, Iraq, Qatar, etc and Russia and China. This was all orchestrated and finalized while Trump was in Saudi Arabia and Qatar. They hinted at the closure of the “Strait of Hormuz” so that will be next. I am pissed because they have murdered people and are risking the lives of our US military and US citizens to pull this scam. Some of Congress may be involved since they have been so quiet. Called US Rep Burlison (R-MO) this morning and got “no official statement.” Pray I am wrong….
Well after just hearing the Vice President of the United States say, “knock on wood” anything is possible with this administration.
The Shield of the Republic fellows said this (only partially destroying Iran's nuclear program vs completely) would be a pretty unwanted outcome.
A better question is what the Shield of the Republic fellows think is wanted outcome.
Their take was basically that total destruction of Iran's nuclear program would be the best outcome, given that's the end of the conflict for the moment (a gap longer than months). But you should listen to the episode if you want the full, more detailed answer to your question.
Me?
Don’t worry, I listened VERY carefully.
I listened for a few particular words.
Well, if you listened, why are you asking me? Why not explain it yourself and why you find it a more interesting aspect? Are you quizzing me? Are you trolling? Whenever I see your comments around here, you seem really like you are trying to pick fights, so I'm not going to reply to you anymore.
Do you want to talk about the podcast, or do you want to just yell at me?
Is it?
Not the lying by the state? Not the military action without congressional approval?
It’s all my fault?
Sorry about that.
Tell me David, which profile picture should I have to reduce “our domestic problem”?
The whole point of Israel manipulating the US to strike Iran is NOT to take out a nuclear threat to Israel, but to create vast amounts of chaos, so that Netanyahu can personally hang on to power, and avoid all legal accountability for his domestic and international crimes.
De-escalation by Iran is not acceptable for Netanyahu.
In the last 12 months, Netanyahu has tried repeatedly to provoke Iran by attacking an Iranian consulate building and by committing a terrorist bombing on Iranian soil.
This set of attacks, leading up to the US attacks, was just more of the same.
If it hasn’t worked, Netanyahu will try again.
Prediction: if not constrained by Trump*, Netanyahu will attempt regime change / decapitation unilaterally.
*never thought those three words would leave my brain. But every US president has had to constrain Israeli recklessness since 1948, because Israel cannot constrain themselves.
Can't wait for Russia to either give Iran nukes directly or to move Iran's nuke program into Russia where the US/Israel won't be willing to hit it.
But Ukraine might hit it - and might have encouragement from Europe to do so.
“The height of terrible irony for Qatar to be hit by Iranian missiles, after the two invested billions in financing & supporting Hamas, the Gaza-based terrorist organization that triggered a cascade of events on October 7th leading to harm, death, destruction & blowback for both.”
- Ahmed Fuad Alkhatib
Do none of these three not know that the U.S. attack violated multiple treaties to which we are a signatory ?
This Operation Stupid, or whatever you want to call it, was illegal and unconstitutional! It’s the tariffs all over again, the Art of the Deal being used on Americans; people are so relieved that WW3 hasn’t started that they don’t care anymore that our Constitution has degraded even further. Congress should’ve been consulted and had the right to approve the strike!
Exception: the war in Ukraine is not extended kayfabe.
Can we please all not lose sight of the fact that, if this was necessary, it was only necessary because Trump pulled us out of the JCPA.
Even if we had remained in the JCPOA, that agreement would have been on the verge of obsolescence by now. It was not designed to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon forever. It was only designed to delay it for a decade or so. And the JCPOA did absolutely nothing to rein in Iran's support for terrorism.
The JCPOA wasn't perfect, but we would have definitely had significantly more information on whether or not a strike on Iran was necessary.
i think unfortunately with a little poking around one can find pretty good non-biased reporting on iran's skirting of the treaty and so on ... is it a slam dunk, do we have iranian top officials on record in the public on that? no. it's not that solid, but pretty good, enough to think that the treaty alone would not have been enough to prevent them from eventually having a weapon. once again or maybe i should be more clear -- i'm not really defending the specifics of this strike, but just pt out that the long standing policy of a non-nuke-weapon iran has been this nations (also our allies i believe) goal thru several presidencies now. and we aren't there yet.
Trump might have pulled.
But Israel was doing the pushing, which, was the majority of the work.
Also: it is hard to make the argument “orange man bad” when Biden had four years to reimplement the JCPOA.
He didn’t.
Why?
Because Israel had veto rights over his presidency. They were the final arbiter of US policy.
I don't think another JCPOA-type deal was possible after Trump pulled us out of the first one. We gave up leverage and went back on our word, so why would Iran do another deal with us?
It appears that Israel is still the final arbiter of US policy, given how the last week has played out.
Arsonist puts out fire he started v1,037.0
Exactly!
That's the rational thing to do.
Sooo ... you imply that the US warned Iran before the bombing to move the enriched uranium? If that is the case, I'm not sure.
But the Iranians aren't dumb ... I would have moved it, and as many centrifuges as I could.
But ... while the deep penetrator bombs might have done some damage, I am not sure they got all the way down. My understanding is that there were only two bombs per site? That is insufficient.
Either way, there is a lot of performative bombings going on.
Agree with ALL of that.
Now they will, very quietly, go for the bomb.
The question is: will Israel try for regime change?
“Israel's 30+ year dream is that Iran by some miracle might somehow be made to go away, as its greatest existential enemy.”
I’m not sure his is true: it was Israel that entered into a criminal conspiracy with the Reagan Administration to sell Iran missiles, in order for the Reagan Administration to (illegally) fund and support Central American death squads.
It’s hard to make the argument that Iran is the ultimate existential threat … while you’re selling it advanced American missiles.
“[Iran is] trying to build hegemonic control”.
Is it?
I know what each of those words means, but I don’t know what that sentence means.
I don’t care what the “consensus” is, what evidence is there for that claim?
Do they have dozens of major military bases throughout the region? No, that’s the US.
Do they hold millions of people under occupation for decades, denying them basic human rights? No, that’s Israel.
Are they forming an “accord” with the most repressive form of Islam, Wahhabism, including countries that funded the worst terrorist attacks in the US and around the world? And spread terrorism to Afghanistan, the UK and as far as Indonesia? No, that’s Saudi Arabia.
So I ask: what evidence is there for Iranian “hegemony”?
The funding of Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis? Because their funding is … what … an absurdly tiny fraction of the funding we give to groups to oppose them?